It's starting (again).....

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The Big Boo
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It's starting (again).....

Post by The Big Boo » Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:23 am

Bud's gun shop had to send an email out to its customer base explaining how swamped they have been:

"After spending the first six weeks of 2012 attending various firearms industry shows, including the NSSF Shot Show in Las Vegas with the highest dealer attendance of record, there was one obvious recurring theme from every manufacturer we visited with...."we just can't make enough firearms". Although we fully expected another surge later in 2012, it has already started as the ATF continues to report all time record highs in background/NICS checks as well as Conceal Carry/CCW permit applications.

We are also experiencing record high sales on ... actually breaking our all time single day sales records TWICE this month ! Considering we had no special promotions going on, and we exceeded every sales record dating all the way back to 2003, it seems pretty clear ......"Here we go again !"

As the national media and general public become increasingly aware of the deteriorating supply and demand issues.....we ALL know what comes next....higher prices !"

What is your take on this? What do you see going on on the ground in your area?

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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by Liff » Thu Feb 23, 2012 8:50 am

I have got a few items I was looking to sell. That is my basic plan for the increase in demand.

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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by UndeadInfidel » Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:00 am

The only thing you can do is beat the rush and try to buy lowe/sell high. I'm personally taking the next 1-2 weeks to stock up on ammo as I haven't seen a jump in prices just yet.

I haven't seen much change in the general public's spending habits. Everyone is just starting to focus on gas prices now.
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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by JesterODX » Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:40 am

Plenty of guns and ammo around here. The shops stay over packed in my opinion. Business is good. Prices seem pretty stable from this time last year. Some stuff has gone down as its become more available. The Saiga's for example. But as we start getting closer to November you can bet prices and demand are gonna go up.
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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by jwilson85 » Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:08 pm

we are 8 weeks behind in builds and most of our dealers say that they are dealing with the same thing cant get parts even
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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by Dexion1619 » Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:18 pm

My local shop mentioned that they are expecting the same thing. I'm buying a little extra ammo each week in the hopes of stocking a bit more then usual.
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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by SpeedBug » Thu Feb 23, 2012 8:52 pm

Yeah the ramp up is beginning.

If you want to buy any ammo for any upcoming training classes, you might want to do it now, before the chaos is in full swing and prices hit the roof.

Same for mags... :(

It'll be 2008 all over again, Im afraid.

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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by alptraum » Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:29 am

I think there is more at play then what I think most of you are alluding to (politics). In the past couple years we have started to see many firearm oriented shows which have probably gotten more people interested in them. I can think of around 10 that are currently airing and that's just off the top of my head. I think that's driving a large part of the current uptick in sales, and quite possibly the main reason. Part of it's just expanded options as well I think. Look at the AR market, there are TONS more options out there now then in years past.

The 2008 price spike some people have mentioned was pretty much entirely politically driven, and those concerns turned out to be a non issue anyways. Currently I think there are other major factors driving demand.

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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by silversnake » Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:44 am

alptraum wrote:I think there is more at play then what I think most of you are alluding to (politics). In the past couple years we have started to see many firearm oriented shows which have probably gotten more people interested in them. I can think of around 10 that are currently airing and that's just off the top of my head. I think that's driving a large part of the current uptick in sales, and quite possibly the main reason. Part of it's just expanded options as well I think. Look at the AR market, there are TONS more options out there now then in years past.

The 2008 price spike some people have mentioned was pretty much entirely politically driven, and those concerns turned out to be a non issue anyways. Currently I think there are other major factors driving demand.
Agree, lots of things are driving this. My own impressions on a list of "causes":
- OMG politics!
- gun-related media (Top Shot, Sons of Guns, etc.)
- OMG the world's ending in 2012! stuff
- all the people in the survival/prepper/etc. community who make a living on "the end is coming, buy stuff now!"
- all the people expecting the above and stocking up making a self-fulfilling prophecy


Speaking as a guy who didn't even own a gun 6 months ago, I'm not at all pleased about facing higher prices and difficulty shopping now that I've been bit by the bug of how much I like time at the range.

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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by FlashDaddy » Fri Feb 24, 2012 6:06 pm

YES YES YES !!!
Let's ramp up the fear! Peg that Fear-O-Meter to the max! It makes for very good business if you are a firearms, ammo, etc. manufacturer or seller.
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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by Talon04 » Fri Feb 24, 2012 6:30 pm

The only thing I'm having an issue finding right now is .38's Walmart and our better LGS are both out.
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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by raxar » Fri Feb 24, 2012 6:42 pm

guns are plentiful here , a local shop has 12-15 ar's in stock now (he had 3 when I was there last week).

the only thing I'm concerned about it .22lr. I shoot a crap load of it, and since I got my 22/45 back I'm sure I'll be using a lot more. Realistically I need 3-4 bricks a month, the last election wally world didn't have any (every time I stopped by) for over a year.
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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by jwilson85 » Fri Feb 24, 2012 9:27 pm

Talon04 wrote:The only thing I'm having an issue finding right now is .38's Walmart and our better LGS are both out.
if you reload ill send you 200 brass for free i dont have one or plans for one
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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by jwilson85 » Fri Feb 24, 2012 9:29 pm

FlashDaddy wrote:YES YES YES !!!
Let's ramp up the fear! Peg that Fear-O-Meter to the max! It makes for very good business if you are a firearms, ammo, etc. manufacturer or seller.
yep makes us happy when people do this :) :) :) :D :D
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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by jwilson85 » Fri Feb 24, 2012 9:46 pm

alptraum wrote:I think there is more at play then what I think most of you are alluding to (politics). In the past couple years we have started to see many firearm oriented shows which have probably gotten more people interested in them. I can think of around 10 that are currently airing and that's just off the top of my head. I think that's driving a large part of the current uptick in sales, and quite possibly the main reason. Part of it's just expanded options as well I think. Look at the AR market, there are TONS more options out there now then in years past.

The 2008 price spike some people have mentioned was pretty much entirely politically driven, and those concerns turned out to be a non issue anyways. Currently I think there are other major factors driving demand.
ya i think
1. our election year
2.mexicos election
3.2012 fear
4.the firearm shows( i hate, they make the ones that know what they are doing look like idiots!!!!! but if it gets people into firearms then so be it
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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by Mr. Warren Peace » Sat Feb 25, 2012 1:50 pm

this is the calm before the storm.... :wink: :evil:
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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by Bearcat » Sat Feb 25, 2012 1:59 pm

In the past month or so I've seen a surge of people at gun shows. A friend of mine's father owns a gun store and always have a booth at the shows. They say it's always busiest in the winter months. Also, it's tax refund season. I haven't seen anything indicating another shortage yet.
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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by MaxRite » Sun Feb 26, 2012 6:30 am

Wal-Mart in my area is pretty much out of all popular calibers, even cheap 12ga birdshot bricks are gone. Some expensive hollow points still remain, but range ammo is gone. Chantilly gunshow had a turn out unseen since 2008. Line out the door and around the building. I dont like what I see.
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It's starting (again).....

Post by Jamie » Sun Feb 26, 2012 7:07 am

Image

This silly season is a nice chance for the industry to make money off of the quadrennial panic...my plan is to buy another firearm or 2 when the panic has died down, and people sell off guns and ammo they didn't really want/need, or can't afford... :twisted:

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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Sun Feb 26, 2012 9:57 am

FlashDaddy wrote:YES YES YES !!!
Let's ramp up the fear! Peg that Fear-O-Meter to the max! It makes for very good business if you are a firearms, ammo, etc. manufacturer or seller.
Yup. Meanwhile, I'm gonna start ordering in bulk, 10,000 rounds at a time, and reselling them at gunshows. That, and t-shirts with wolves, Gadsden flags, and catchy pro-gun sayings! I'll be rich!
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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by ultra magnus » Sun Feb 26, 2012 11:58 am

Jamie wrote:Image

This silly season is a nice chance for the industry to make money off of the quadrennial panic...my plan is to buy another firearm or 2 when the panic has died down, and people sell off guns and ammo they didn't really want/need, or can't afford... :twisted:

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Uh good luck with that. Last time most people didn't understand why you wouldn't pay $800 for there wasr when they had to pay $900 for it, or $700 for a Glock.

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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by SpeedBug » Sun Feb 26, 2012 3:41 pm

Guns and Leather in Springfield TN (North of Nashville) is selling a case (500 rds) of Federal M193 55 grain 5.56 ammo for $250.00 plus tax.

They told me without blinking an eye the price is so high because they can't get it.

I went home and promptly ordered a 900 round case from Wideners for $289.99

Yeah its going to get stupid real soon...

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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by I_Hate_George_Lucas » Sat Mar 03, 2012 4:52 am

Got the same email from Bud's... was also at SHOT Show and the amount of fear in the market is somewhat truthful....

The economy as a whole isn't doing well, the tax issues are all crap and the two month extension bull is just that... BS, the elections are right around the corner and the massive early support for the GOP has died down and the main GOP front runner isn't a friend to the firearms industry (Obama actually has a better physical record then Romney... though both actually are equally anti 2nd amendment), business owners are sitting on capital but are afraid to invest it due to a a crappy market and swinging political climate, the general public is also hoarding cash due to the same fears, gas prices are going up, the Middle East is a complete cluster F#$@ (when isn't it?) and WWIII might break out between Israel and Iran, etc.... all in all it's not a good time right now.

Those of us that have stable jobs and aren't living paycheck to paycheck are doing good.... the rest... not so much. As for the 45%-49% that lives of the gov... they're even pissed and worried because their support to go under.

The big guys in the industry are doing good but a lot of the mom and pop companies are worried a little bit.

There is going to be panic buying and prices are going to shoot up. The second Obama Panic is going to occur and I fear it will be part of the gun market for many years to come.... ever since the AWB ended; the market mindset has been different. People now fear elections to a degree because they know that even though is it unlikely; it is possible for bans and regulations on firearms due to who wins office.

Yeah, the 2nd Amendment was upheld by the Supreme Court but that's about as useful as the paper it's printed on. Both rulings did state that regulation is legal... so it did not clearly say that all guns are okay to own. It simply said that some guns are okay to own. It didn't state that California style laws are illegal. Permits to purchase, bans on certain types of designs or capacity are illegal, etc... all it said is that a total ban on common firearms (handguns, rifles, shotguns) are illegal... didn't mention anything about "reasonable regulation" such as magazine capacity bans, AW style bans, size bans, caliber bans, etc....

The panic buys are here again and are here to stay.... get used to it every election. My only panic buy last election was my AUG and I didn't go nuts in price. I simply waited until Ratworx had a MSAR E4 on sale and ordered it. $1300 total for the rifle with five magazines. That's about market price for them anyways when everyone else was selling them at crazy prices. I placed my order in December.... and got my rifle in March. I had to wait but I was okay waiting.

All I want this time is a Kel-Tec KSG.... everything else I've bought this year is because it was cheap and useless (do I really need a GLOCK 17L, GLOCK 24, Bird's head Ruger Vaquero in .45 ACP, Beretta 96G Elite II, GLOCK 29, etc) and I already have the majority of what I want.... I have five safes full of crap that I don't shoot because I don't have the free time and I simply add more guns to it. I want the KSG but I'm not going to go crazy and pay $1,600 for it when MSRP is $700. I've done the wish list thing and I'm waiting like I did for my AUG... it'll come in sooner or later and I'm not going to break the bank for it.
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Re: It's starting (again).....

Post by SMoAF » Sat Mar 03, 2012 5:40 pm

Fortunately, I have enough of both on-hand to meet me needs for, well, a few years. A price spike now doesn't concern me, as my stuff it already in inventory and stored securely in multiple locations.
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