UK Swine Flu Thread

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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by sheddi » Wed Jul 15, 2009 4:35 pm

I think this is the same story that TC posted over in the "international" Swine Flu thread.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8153051.stm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
BBC wrote:Swine flu calls to GPs 'jump 50%'

The number of people contacting their doctor over fears they have swine flu has jumped almost 50% in the last week to 40,000 a week, figures have shown.

More than 73 people per 100,000 reported flu-like illness from 6-12 July - up 46% on the week before, the Royal College of GPs said. The figures for England and Wales also showed those aged five to 14 had the highest rate, at 159.57 per 100,000. Youngsters and babies aged up to four were next at 114.12 per 100,000. These were followed by people aged 15 to 44, those aged 45 to 64 and then the 65 and overs.

The weekly report from the college's monitoring system said: "National incidence of influenza-like illness increased for all regions and is now evident in all age groups."

Central England has the highest number of cases at 94 per 100,000, but the North had witnessed "a marked increase" on previous weeks, up from 6.6 to 37.16 in just one week. London had seen a small drop in cases but remained a major hot spot for the virus. The figures, based on a sample of 84 GP surgeries across Britain, are used by the government to monitor the flu pandemic.
Now, it might sound alarming that consultations are up 50% in a week, but let's not forget that confirmed cases (while they were still testing everyone) were previously rising at 100% per week.

If I was to speculate, I might suggest that the "missing" 50% of cases are a result of som people having such mild symptoms that they don't even realise they've got it. Which is good, right?
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by Greg Mainer » Wed Jul 15, 2009 7:03 pm

andygates wrote:Greg, bear in mind that tamiflu is only effective in the first 48h of infection. If you man it out too long, you miss the boat.
Mum's office is NHS and they haven't dished her out with Tamiflu due to her not being in they day it was confirmed her co-worker had Swine Flu, the person at cadets however was given Tamiflu. If I notice any flu like symptoms then hello doctors.

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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by sheddi » Thu Jul 16, 2009 11:10 am

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8154419.stm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
BBC wrote:UK swine flu deaths jump to 29

Twenty-nine people have now died in the UK after contracting swine flu, the government has announced. There have been 26 deaths in England and three in Scotland, said a Department of Health spokeswoman.

On Monday the number of reported deaths stood at 17. Officials estimated there were 55,000 new cases last week.

A Wiltshire patient who tested positive for swine flu has died in Swindon. The third victim in Scotland, a female tourist, died on Wednesday.
More at the link.

Here's the HPS news article for those who want a more definitive source:
http://www.hpa.org.uk/webw/HPAweb&HPAwe ... 7728933406" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by Brash » Sun Jul 19, 2009 5:05 am

Friend of mine drove past St Davids hospital in Cardiff the other day and the place was quarantined off with plastic sheeting covering the doorway into A&E and staff outside on a desk dealing with people whilst wearing masks. Apparently it was like something off outbreak. That's a little concerning.
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by K9medic » Sun Jul 19, 2009 5:50 am

Found this on another forum, makes intresting reading. But then I have always planned to get by without any drugs so if I do get them it's icing on the cake.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Contracts for swine flu vaccine held by countries such as Britain with pharmaceutical companies abroad could be broken easily if governments decide to impose export bans as the pandemic worsens.

Experts warn that the pressure on governments to prevent vaccine supplies from being sent abroad while their own populations are suffering could be very high if death rates spiral — and make contracts difficult to enforce.

Professor Peter Dunhill, of the Department of Biochemical Engineering, University College London, told The Times that “nationalising” policies would be inevitable at the peak of a severe pandemic, with politicians unable to resist public demand to stop shipments.

“If you look at the situation, the amount of vaccine being produced globally is very small,” Prof Dunhill said.

“The issue should not come up unless things get really bad, because I think people will show a degree of caution about getting vaccinated. But if the backstops fall away and this virus gets more troublesome and resistant to anti-virals, then the issue becomes much sharper.

“Pharmaceutical companies will not want to constrain availability to the most powerful buyers in the drugs markets. But they may find that governments just dictate.”

Prof Dunhill said it would become “politically impossible” for leaders not to block shipments of vaccine from leaving the country, just as the United States did in 1976 when it reneged on a vaccine agreement with Canada. However such problems are unlikely to rise if the pandemic remains mild.

His comments came as the US pharmaceutical company Baxter International, which is manufacturing supplies for Britain in the Czech Republic, said it could not take any more orders for H1N1 vaccines. It has already signed contracts with five countries for a total of 80 million doses.

The possibility of a territorial struggle over vaccine does not bode well for Britain — with all of its flu vaccines produced abroad — or the United States, which makes only 20 percent of the regular flu vaccines it uses.

Britain is in line to get around 60 million doses of the vaccine — enough to cover half the population — by the end of December, with the rest of the doses following next year.

The first batches are expected in August and the Government has drawn up a priority list of people to receive the jab.

However, there is expected to be some delay between when Baxter and GlaxoSmithKline, which is producing batches in Germany, deliver the supplies and people receive their first vaccinations.

Prof Dunhill added that should governments “nationalise” vaccine producers within their borders, then Britain would have production at Speke, near Liverpool, as its fall-back. Novartis and MedImmune, which both have multi-million dollar deals with the US Government, have bases at Speke, though it is not yet known how many doses the facilities would likely produce.

Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said politicians would not be able to withstand the pressure.

“This isn’t rocket science. If there is severe disease, countries will want to hang onto the vaccine for their own citizens.”

David Fedson, a retired vaccine industry executive, added that the “consequences of shipping vaccine to another country when your own people don’t have it would be devastating”.

A vaccine for Britain has to be approved by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) and the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) before it can be used. Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer, said on Thursday that vaccine orders remained on course. “We will get initial supplies by the end of August unless there is some problem in the manufacturing process,” he said.

In past pandemics, vaccines were never exported before the country that produced them had enough for its own population. But unlike the last two pandemics in 1957 and 1968, many more countries this time around have struck deals with companies which they say guarantee them first access to vaccine.

David Fidler, a professor of law at Indiana University who has consulted for World Health Organisation, said: “Pandemic vaccine will be a valuable and scarce resource, like oil or food during a famine. We’ve seen how countries behave in those situations, and it’s not encouraging.”

Countries with flu vaccine plants might decide to seize all vaccines and ban their export, thus breaking the pharmaceutical contracts promising other countries vaccine supplies. These private contracts are not binding international law between two countries, Professor Fidler said.

He said most vaccine contracts include a clause allowing them to be broken under extraordinary circumstances, such as a health emergency. That would leave the countries who had brokered such deals not only without vaccine, but without legal recourse.

“There’s nothing in international law that helps you resolve this, it’s just a political nightmare happening in the midst of an epidemiological nightmare,” Prof Fidler said.

Neither the Department of Health nor the vaccine manufacturers would comment on delivery plans.



http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/lif...cle6718224.ece" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by Brit-ZedHunter » Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:31 am

Swine flu is getting closer to me.

3 people who work in the same physical room as me are now off with it (one confirmed and is on tamiflu the other two are suspected).

I was in contact with all 3 of them on friday :-/

This does not bode well....
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by AinsyC » Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:40 am

swine flu is nothing to worry about!
the symptoms are typically milder than that of average flu!
serious conditions only arise when underlying medical conditions mix unfavourably with the swine flu!
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by Skydiver » Mon Jul 20, 2009 11:20 am

until it mutates into something worse.

It's already a completely different type of flu than 'normal' it targets kids whereas normal flu viruses target the elderly, it is highly virulent in summer instead of winter and it has killed otherwise healthy people.

If it mutates into something even slightly worse it could be devestating - and there's no way of telling when that might happen until it does. I for one am trying to stear clear of it. Though after reading Ad'lan's story 'Fagin' I'm thinking it might be better to get it now while it's mild then if it mutates I might be immune.
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by the_alias » Mon Jul 20, 2009 11:28 am

Man fuck you guys but I'm staying in Helvetia for now!

Though a work colleague comes back from London tmr so if he has it I'm sure I'm fucked...

Seriously though I reckon it will die down by the time I do head back, then I'll just have to hope it doesn't evolve when mixed with Freshers Flu...
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by andygates » Mon Jul 20, 2009 12:45 pm

At least with Fresher's Flu you get a drunken snog out of the deal.

AinsyC: It's more or less as bad as regular flu. It's got a much larger pool of infectable people. So, it will cause lots of deaths.

"Ordinary flu occurs every year during the winter months in the UK. It affects 10-15% of the UK population, causing around 12,000 deaths every year." [1]

The great majority of the population don't have immunity to swine flu, so 80% isn't an unreasonable figure to play with for the target population - say, 6x the number of cases. The elderly are in some cases lucky and immune thanks to ancient flu antibodies, so call it 5x. That's where the worst-case number of 65,000 deaths comes from.



[1] http://www.dh.gov.uk/PublicationsAndSta ... chk=2UuNhx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by TC » Mon Jul 20, 2009 3:24 pm

Britain is in line to get around 60 million doses of the vaccine — enough to cover half the population
Wait, what? Last time I checked, we had about 60 million people in the UK. What the hell is going on? Either the author is way, way off, or there is something about the vaccine that I don't know, like it needs two doses per person. Anyone know what's going on?
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by andygates » Mon Jul 20, 2009 5:29 pm

There's a DoH publication that answers this: http://www.parliament.uk/documents/upload/postpn331.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It is a 2-shot vaccine.

60 million doses are on order from GSK, and another 72 million from Baxter. I guess GSK are just being faster in turning the order around. There will be enough for all once all orders are fulfilled.

There's a degree of complication, in that the nations hosting the vax labs may insist on their orders being fulfilled first, or a nation may apply seekrit leverage to gazump us, but that's up in the air and I wouldn't lose too much sleep over it. Mind you, if this were an H5N1 pandemic with a 5% CFR, it would be a big deal, so maybe this will focus attention on some national vaccine-producing facilities in the near future.
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by krootox1986 » Mon Jul 20, 2009 8:16 pm

according to the fish and chip wrappers they're exhuming victims of the spanish flu pandemic for cures and inoculations and the like
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by Brit-ZedHunter » Tue Jul 21, 2009 3:52 am

Well my boss is off with flu symptoms now and someone from the company who rents the lower floor of my work building also has it confirmed.

Thasts 4 confirmed and 1 unconfirmed now in this building :-/
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by TC » Tue Jul 21, 2009 4:29 am

andygates wrote:There's a DoH publication that answers this: http://www.parliament.uk/documents/upload/postpn331.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It is a 2-shot vaccine.

60 million doses are on order from GSK, and another 72 million from Baxter. I guess GSK are just being faster in turning the order around. There will be enough for all once all orders are fulfilled.

There's a degree of complication, in that the nations hosting the vax labs may insist on their orders being fulfilled first, or a nation may apply seekrit leverage to gazump us, but that's up in the air and I wouldn't lose too much sleep over it. Mind you, if this were an H5N1 pandemic with a 5% CFR, it would be a big deal, so maybe this will focus attention on some national vaccine-producing facilities in the near future.
Ah, right. Thanks for the info. I think someone else somewhere on the boards had a link to an article about the exportation problems that could arise.
Brit-ZedHunter wrote:Well my boss is off with flu symptoms now and someone from the company who rents the lower floor of my work building also has it confirmed.

Thasts 4 confirmed and 1 unconfirmed now in this building :-/
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by andygates » Tue Jul 21, 2009 12:40 pm

krootox1986 wrote:according to the fish and chip wrappers they're exhuming victims of the spanish flu pandemic for cures and inoculations and the like
I call bullshit on your fishwrap. There's no need: antibodies have already been sussed and the vaccine is on the way, and cures? There were no cures back then. These days we have antivirals. What frothing-chops rag was that?
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by LilDaemon » Tue Jul 21, 2009 6:20 pm

Brit-ZedHunter wrote:Well my boss is off with flu symptoms now and someone from the company who rents the lower floor of my work building also has it confirmed.

Thasts 4 confirmed and 1 unconfirmed now in this building :-/

Looks like working from home is sounding like a really good idea right now.
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by Apache » Tue Jul 21, 2009 7:02 pm

AinsyC wrote:swine flu is nothing to worry about!
the symptoms are typically milder than that of average flu!
serious conditions only arise when underlying medical conditions mix unfavourably with the swine flu!
andygates wrote:At least with Fresher's Flu you get a drunken snog out of the deal.

AinsyC: It's more or less as bad as regular flu. It's got a much larger pool of infectable people. So, it will cause lots of deaths.

"Ordinary flu occurs every year during the winter months in the UK. It affects 10-15% of the UK population, causing around 12,000 deaths every year." [1]

[1] http://www.dh.gov.uk/PublicationsAndSta ... chk=2UuNhx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I love the way people gloss over the two most sensible posts for weeks!

Flu kills people every year. It even kills some 'healthy' people. It's nowt to worry about.

IT'S FLU!
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by krootox1986 » Tue Jul 21, 2009 7:34 pm

This isn't just any flu. This is M&S flu
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by Biddy » Wed Jul 22, 2009 3:17 am

Apache wrote:I love the way people gloss over the two most sensible posts for weeks!

Flu kills people every year. It even kills some 'healthy' people. It's nowt to worry about.

IT'S FLU!
Well as true as all that is we’ve just had our first confirmed case here where I work this morning.

Its only a tiny little office building with 8 of us in it, so everyone interacts with everyone else every second of everyday. So I’m expecting us all to start dropping like flies any second. :(

I personally started with a sore throat last night, so all I can say is its been nice knowing you.

P.S. And yes I am a bit of a drama queen. ;-P
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by krootox1986 » Wed Jul 22, 2009 5:04 am

Biddy wrote:P.S. And yes I am a bit of a drama queen. ;-P
lol me too if i grazed my knee i'd ask them to amputate
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by Skydiver » Wed Jul 22, 2009 5:07 am

Apache wrote:
AinsyC wrote:swine flu is nothing to worry about!
the symptoms are typically milder than that of average flu!
serious conditions only arise when underlying medical conditions mix unfavourably with the swine flu!
andygates wrote:At least with Fresher's Flu you get a drunken snog out of the deal.

AinsyC: It's more or less as bad as regular flu. It's got a much larger pool of infectable people. So, it will cause lots of deaths.

"Ordinary flu occurs every year during the winter months in the UK. It affects 10-15% of the UK population, causing around 12,000 deaths every year." [1]

[1] http://www.dh.gov.uk/PublicationsAndSta ... chk=2UuNhx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I love the way people gloss over the two most sensible posts for weeks!

Flu kills people every year. It even kills some 'healthy' people. It's nowt to worry about.

IT'S FLU!
Except that this flu is one we have no resistance to and is highly virulant, which means it will spread fast, infect many more people than seasonal flu and has a greater potential to mutate.

I'm not saying it's something we should all be terrified of as it is usually mild in most people at the moment, however it's potential is a lot worse than 'normal' flu.
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by krootox1986 » Wed Jul 22, 2009 5:23 am

This is true as they know nearly nothing about the strain do they?
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Re: UK Swine Flu Thread

Post by Skydiver » Wed Jul 22, 2009 10:14 am

Swine flu - I gots it.

bleugh.
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