Peak OilRed Two wrote:...
Worth preparing for:
I know from reading history that that the fall of civilization is nowhere close. Things have to get much worse than they are now for a little recession to encourage some sort of French Rebellion type of thing. Societies and populations are pretty stable and they can both put up with a lot before falling. I know sorta takes a lot of the wind out of a lot of people's sails, but that's the reality. Still, if you have the time, interest, energy, money and resources to prepare for this, then I say go for it.
populations might be stable right now - with regard to falling off the cliff. but the graph below that came from the field-by-field study in the IEA 2008 report, shows just how boned we are.
(any thing that is NOT blue is just wishful thinking)
this breaks down to something like
the world is currently using small fields for some 20% of production and its all set to go out in a flash in the coming years, this on top of all the other declines, i feel from these hard stats that we will be loosing some 30% of our production within the next decade.
regardless of the current state of affairs in the economy i think this is a wild card that we can not escape, and the loss of this production will destroy all discretionary income and all business will effectly be wiped out from an untenable environment (no customers, costly goods, credit freeze, etc). and further more, the great matt simmons discussed how easily the supply lines could empty out with a run on the pump and cities could be cut off from trucks and go hungry. riots and paw to follow as the decline will never recover and the world will not have the money to recover to a green world with electric cars. we will bottom out before we ever build to this.
so complete collapse for me is top of the list
(full article with graphs http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4820" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; )