What I am realistically preparing for:

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damOIL
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Re: What I am realistically preparing for:

Post by damOIL » Wed Nov 09, 2011 7:58 am

Red Two wrote:...
Worth preparing for:
I know from reading history that that the fall of civilization is nowhere close. Things have to get much worse than they are now for a little recession to encourage some sort of French Rebellion type of thing. Societies and populations are pretty stable and they can both put up with a lot before falling. I know sorta takes a lot of the wind out of a lot of people's sails, but that's the reality. Still, if you have the time, interest, energy, money and resources to prepare for this, then I say go for it.
....
Peak Oil

populations might be stable right now - with regard to falling off the cliff. but the graph below that came from the field-by-field study in the IEA 2008 report, shows just how boned we are.
Image
(any thing that is NOT blue is just wishful thinking)

this breaks down to something like
Image

the world is currently using small fields for some 20% of production and its all set to go out in a flash in the coming years, this on top of all the other declines, i feel from these hard stats that we will be loosing some 30% of our production within the next decade.

regardless of the current state of affairs in the economy i think this is a wild card that we can not escape, and the loss of this production will destroy all discretionary income and all business will effectly be wiped out from an untenable environment (no customers, costly goods, credit freeze, etc). and further more, the great matt simmons discussed how easily the supply lines could empty out with a run on the pump and cities could be cut off from trucks and go hungry. riots and paw to follow as the decline will never recover and the world will not have the money to recover to a green world with electric cars. we will bottom out before we ever build to this.

so complete collapse for me is top of the list

cheers


(full article with graphs http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4820" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; )
Last edited by damOIL on Wed Nov 16, 2011 4:19 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: What I am realistically preparing for:

Post by Mr. Warren Peace » Fri Nov 11, 2011 5:55 pm

man. unfortunately, it is always man vs man.
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Re: What I am realistically preparing for:

Post by squinty » Fri Nov 11, 2011 6:19 pm

Mr. Warren Peace wrote:man. unfortunately, it is always man vs man.
Wait, no, sometimes it's man versus self, and sometimes it's man versus nature.
George Orwell wrote:Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power.

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Re: What I am realistically preparing for:

Post by 0122358 » Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:13 pm

Red Two wrote:Greetings Survivialjoe!

As I sit here listening to the rain come down, keeping dry and warm, I've been monitoring and responding to the posts, mainly to try to get up to speed/become aware of possible situations/develep responses that could happen. I agree with you on the battle lines. Time to get out of Dodge. Wars are no place for civillians. Thats why we have armies. I am gonna make a blanket statement here at this point and say that NO CIVILIAN, AT ANY TIME, FOR ANY REASON is prepared to do battle in a war zone. Here is my take on the matter: Joe Civilian has spent 20 thousand dollars on his ultra cool BOV. It has all the bells and whistles a civilian can install on it. It gets in the way of a 60 ton tank, who doesn't care about your fancy 33 inch, auto inflate wheels, your BOB, your stash of guns, or your plan for survival. The 60 ton tank (or insert large military vehicle of your choice) runs plumb over you. Now you and your whole family, cool BOV and BOB are all 5 inches tall.

Same story with your "hardened" house/fort/castle. A guy in a military vehicle presses a trigger, launches a (insert your choice of military ordinance here) round into your 459,000 dollar fortress and you go into business the next day selling toothpicks, cuz that's all your left with.

I am under no illusions here. Yeah, these are acceptible bug out scenarious, no matter now unlikely. Civilian riots on the other hand-much more probable and spontaneous. So, I think you for bringing that point up.
Red Two
I have to respectivly disagree with this statment. Not trying to start a political tangent or military bash/vive la revlution thing here...but looking throughout history there are several times where mere civilians were able to defeate a substanstially larger military force. The mujaheedeen in the Russo-Afghan war in the 80's, the french resistience during ww2 as well as many others.
SMoAF wrote:Your sin is one of geography, not one of unmanliness. Pimp's sin is that he's, well....himself.
Doctorr Fabulous wrote: I'd rather have 10 spooky-sized aircraft in an AO than 100 drones, because fuck those fucking pred flyboys who can't tell the difference between a shovel and an RPK.

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Re: What I am realistically preparing for:

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:49 pm

0122358 wrote:
Red Two wrote:Greetings Survivialjoe!

As I sit here listening to the rain come down, keeping dry and warm, I've been monitoring and responding to the posts, mainly to try to get up to speed/become aware of possible situations/develep responses that could happen. I agree with you on the battle lines. Time to get out of Dodge. Wars are no place for civillians. Thats why we have armies. I am gonna make a blanket statement here at this point and say that NO CIVILIAN, AT ANY TIME, FOR ANY REASON is prepared to do battle in a war zone. Here is my take on the matter: Joe Civilian has spent 20 thousand dollars on his ultra cool BOV. It has all the bells and whistles a civilian can install on it. It gets in the way of a 60 ton tank, who doesn't care about your fancy 33 inch, auto inflate wheels, your BOB, your stash of guns, or your plan for survival. The 60 ton tank (or insert large military vehicle of your choice) runs plumb over you. Now you and your whole family, cool BOV and BOB are all 5 inches tall.

Same story with your "hardened" house/fort/castle. A guy in a military vehicle presses a trigger, launches a (insert your choice of military ordinance here) round into your 459,000 dollar fortress and you go into business the next day selling toothpicks, cuz that's all your left with.

I am under no illusions here. Yeah, these are acceptible bug out scenarious, no matter now unlikely. Civilian riots on the other hand-much more probable and spontaneous. So, I think you for bringing that point up.
Red Two
I have to respectivly disagree with this statment. Not trying to start a political tangent or military bash/vive la revlution thing here...but looking throughout history there are several times where mere civilians were able to defeate a substanstially larger military force. The mujaheedeen in the Russo-Afghan war in the 80's, the french resistience during ww2 as well as many others.
Both forces you mention had help, training, and fundign in one form or another from substantially larger and better funded forces. PM me if you want details, and google doesn't work.
Opinions subject to change in light of new information.
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http://i.imgur.com/wG6ZMjE.jpg

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Re: What I am realistically preparing for:

Post by 0122358 » Tue Dec 06, 2011 11:45 pm

Doc Torr wrote:
0122358 wrote:
Red Two wrote:Greetings Survivialjoe!

As I sit here listening to the rain come down, keeping dry and warm, I've been monitoring and responding to the posts, mainly to try to get up to speed/become aware of possible situations/develep responses that could happen. I agree with you on the battle lines. Time to get out of Dodge. Wars are no place for civillians. Thats why we have armies. I am gonna make a blanket statement here at this point and say that NO CIVILIAN, AT ANY TIME, FOR ANY REASON is prepared to do battle in a war zone. Here is my take on the matter: Joe Civilian has spent 20 thousand dollars on his ultra cool BOV. It has all the bells and whistles a civilian can install on it. It gets in the way of a 60 ton tank, who doesn't care about your fancy 33 inch, auto inflate wheels, your BOB, your stash of guns, or your plan for survival. The 60 ton tank (or insert large military vehicle of your choice) runs plumb over you. Now you and your whole family, cool BOV and BOB are all 5 inches tall.

Same story with your "hardened" house/fort/castle. A guy in a military vehicle presses a trigger, launches a (insert your choice of military ordinance here) round into your 459,000 dollar fortress and you go into business the next day selling toothpicks, cuz that's all your left with.

I am under no illusions here. Yeah, these are acceptible bug out scenarious, no matter now unlikely. Civilian riots on the other hand-much more probable and spontaneous. So, I think you for bringing that point up.
Red Two
I have to respectivly disagree with this statment. Not trying to start a political tangent or military bash/vive la revlution thing here...but looking throughout history there are several times where mere civilians were able to defeate a substanstially larger military force. The mujaheedeen in the Russo-Afghan war in the 80's, the french resistience during ww2 as well as many others.
Both forces you mention had help, training, and fundign in one form or another from substantially larger and better funded forces. PM me if you want details, and google doesn't work.
Im perfectly aware that the Muji had help from CIA and the french resisitence had help from the allies but even then, even a semi organized contingint of citizens who are semi capable shots (your average hunter) who knows his land can probably get at least a couple good hits before being taken down, but times that one or two hunters by a whole dedicated determined population and you are at least gunna feel a sting. Further conversation and introduction of my opinions would inherintly breach forum rules due to political overtones. So im gunna stop.
SMoAF wrote:Your sin is one of geography, not one of unmanliness. Pimp's sin is that he's, well....himself.
Doctorr Fabulous wrote: I'd rather have 10 spooky-sized aircraft in an AO than 100 drones, because fuck those fucking pred flyboys who can't tell the difference between a shovel and an RPK.

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