MPMalloy wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:27 pmI haz whiplash..boskone wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:54 pmI've been keeping a light eye on this, and I'd say that's understatement. Several times I've seen one or another publication run articles both ways simultaneously.MPMalloy wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:25 amFrom Bloomberg: U.S. Recession Indicators Haven’t Made Up Their Minds
Here is the truth....
#1) There will be another recession. Business does run in cycles. There will always be another recession...always.
#2) The news media must sell clicks or copies or they will have their own negative business cycle. They cannot sell clicks with headlines that say everything is ok for now but may get worse later. ... SO ...ZOMG...A recession is imminent and we all be broke, naked and hungry except for (fill in the name the scapegoat du jour) because they caused it and want it to happen.
#3) Sooner or later because of truth #1 the folks who spout #2 will at some point be right and they get entra internet cred which helps them sell clicks.
In all seriousness the following is my opinion (not truth)and does not constitute advice:
The current economy is slowing down a bit.
It expanded rapidly in 2017 at an unsustainable pace. Economies cannot expand at the rate continuously so a slow down and even a contraction is to be expected.
The employment #s have not been this great in a long time. Try to replace an employee and see how hard it is to find a replacement. Wages are up and raising for this reason. There are a few areas in the US where this may not be the case but for the most part all 50 states are enjoying a prosperous period.
Consumer spending is high and consumer debt levels are rising indicated confidence in the future at all levels. Interest rate levels rose too quickly but that did not impact the economy as much as I expected. The Fed saw this reacted accordingly.
Barring some unknown black swan event I do not see anything but very soft technical recession as likely in the next 12 months...obviously YMMV.