Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

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Stercutus
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Thu May 30, 2019 2:04 am

Dow is up 10% for the year and the sky is falling again?
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Thu May 30, 2019 6:25 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Thu May 30, 2019 2:04 am
Dow is up 10% for the year and the sky is falling again?
I've been watching Bloomberg & CNBC. IMO, everybody's trying to cover all the bases at once. It looks like a lot of who shot john writ Econ & Finance.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Thu May 30, 2019 6:49 pm

The only thing propping up these Ponzi markets is central bank "stimulus" and corporate buy-backs. When those stop, it's Game Over.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ank-stress

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Thu May 30, 2019 9:51 pm

A Timeless Classic:


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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Fri May 31, 2019 3:03 pm

absinthe beginner wrote:
Thu May 30, 2019 6:49 pm
The only thing propping up these Ponzi markets is central bank "stimulus" and corporate buy-backs. When those stop, it's Game Over.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ank-stress
There is more at work than stimulus and buy backs.

Granted in some cases the valuations are steep in terms of P/E ratios (yes, you FANG stocks I am talking about you too) many are not that high on their P/E curves.
In english?
Many stocks are valued at a high price to higher earnings and a generally good health. Stock prices should and generally do follow anticipated earnings.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:29 pm

More "collapse" warnings. They seem to be proliferating.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-02/collapse

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Sun Jun 02, 2019 11:23 pm

raptor wrote:
Fri May 31, 2019 3:03 pm
absinthe beginner wrote:
Thu May 30, 2019 6:49 pm
The only thing propping up these Ponzi markets is central bank "stimulus" and corporate buy-backs. When those stop, it's Game Over.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ank-stress
There is more at work than stimulus and buy backs.

Granted in some cases the valuations are steep in terms of P/E ratios (yes, you FANG stocks I am talking about you too) many are not that high on their P/E curves.
In english?
Many stocks are valued at a high price to higher earnings and a generally good health. Stock prices should and generally do follow anticipated earnings.
I'm going to have to agree. P/E ratios are not always definitive, especially with new stocks but with the old blue chips they tend to be accurate. The market is over priced and there will likely be a haircut coming.
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:02 am

Stercutus wrote:
Sun Jun 02, 2019 11:23 pm
raptor wrote:
Fri May 31, 2019 3:03 pm
absinthe beginner wrote:
Thu May 30, 2019 6:49 pm
The only thing propping up these Ponzi markets is central bank "stimulus" and corporate buy-backs. When those stop, it's Game Over.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ank-stress
There is more at work than stimulus and buy backs.

Granted in some cases the valuations are steep in terms of P/E ratios (yes, you FANG stocks I am talking about you too) many are not that high on their P/E curves.
In english?
Many stocks are valued at a high price to higher earnings and a generally good health. Stock prices should and generally do follow anticipated earnings.
I'm going to have to agree. P/E ratios are not always definitive, especially with new stocks but with the old blue chips they tend to be accurate. The market is over priced and there will likely be a haircut coming.
P/E ratios are indeed not a definitive measure. There are many reason for this: not the least of which is that not all "earnings" are equal, recurring or even distributable.

Still when a company's earnings are up 25% and so is it's stock price, that is logical. That however, DOES NOT mean that the price will not decline or that it is a good time to buy the stock. Simply that there is a rational justification for a higher price so long as the earnings are likely to continue at that level.

As noted many newer and tech companies especially seem to operate at silly P/E ratios including my favorite a negative PE ratio.
The market in this case is assuming they will grow their earnings to the price being paid for the stock. In some cases it works (i.e. FB's PE ratio is about the same and MSFT) in others like Tesla/Uber/Lyft...well the jury is still out.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:45 pm

(EPIC). The Baggy Underwear Clown Show Begins Tomorrow... By Gregory Mannarino

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9B6uhavw4fs&t=0s

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Sun Jul 28, 2019 8:30 pm

Last edited by MPMalloy on Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:12 pm

Page Not Found
We’re sorry, we seem to have lost this page, but we don’t want to lose you. Report the broken link here.
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

MPMalloy
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:48 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:12 pm
Page Not Found
We’re sorry, we seem to have lost this page, but we don’t want to lose you. Report the broken link here.
There was a page there when I read it. shrug

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by JT42 » Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:00 pm

MPMalloy wrote:
Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:48 pm
Stercutus wrote:
Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:12 pm
Page Not Found
We’re sorry, we seem to have lost this page, but we don’t want to lose you. Report the broken link here.
There was a page there when I read it. shrug
There is an 'r' missing in the link. Try this: A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here’s Where You’ll See It First.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:52 pm

JT42 wrote:
Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:00 pm
MPMalloy wrote:
Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:48 pm
Stercutus wrote:
Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:12 pm
Page Not Found
We’re sorry, we seem to have lost this page, but we don’t want to lose you. Report the broken link here.
There was a page there when I read it. shrug
There is an 'r' missing in the link. Try this: A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here’s Where You’ll See It First.
I made the correction. Thank you.


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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:04 pm

I find it hard to take the Editorial Board of Bloomberg seriously. Half the people on there either work for the New York Times or the Atlantic. Both these publications have gotten so political over the last three years I have no faith or trust in either one. Bloomberg is of course Bloomberg. The article opens with the market:
Stocks tanked last week amid signs of a worsening slowdown in Germany and China, and bond investors flashed the clearest signal yet that the U.S. is courting a self-inflicted recession.
The Dow is up 3000 points for the year and it is only August. Even if it drops a 1000 points by December it will be a banner year. Hell, if it drops 3000 we will break even.
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by boskone » Tue Aug 20, 2019 12:36 am

I really wonder if the issue we're really seeing isn't the tail (news) wagging the dog (rest of the damned economy).

News sources overreact and report economic doomsday, because that gets views. Small traders get nervous and button down. Large traders (really, idiot-savant computers) react to the patterns set up by small traders. News sources see the large traders buttoning down, and overreact to get views. Cycle established, economy goes nuts for little good reason. (In a general sense, of course; the entire system is way more complicated than makes for a tolerable forum post.)

I need to get off my butt and get my house sold while the housing market is apparently up. Either we're headed for a recession and I'd be better off out of it, or we're not and I'm more likely to get a good sale value.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by JT42 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 12:47 pm

I'd agree that they like to report bad news because it gets views.

My observation:
When the economy is bad there are lots of articles on how bad it is, none on how good it is.
When the economy is good there are fewer articles on how bad it is, none (or extremely few and short) on how good it is.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:27 pm

The truth is we are and will always be heading for a recession. The fact that there are business cycles is proven.
Product shave life cycles as do businesses.

Granted the "Great Recession" was actually pretty bad and at times nail biting scary.

That said the best way to prep for a recession is to pay off debt, increase liquidity and as well as reserves.

i have never gotten in trouble by having too much liquidity. I may have lost on returns by doing so but never gotten into trouble over it.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Tue Aug 20, 2019 3:25 pm

That is because you will never be the target of a leveraged buyout. :D
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:03 pm

I think a thread about whay ppl here went thru in the GR:

1. What someone's situation was.
2. The effects of the GR was on them & theirs.
3. What worked, what did not, & why.

Would be a good on-topic way of examing these things. A focus on first-hand solutions.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:55 pm


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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:50 pm

It's over.

We are in the end game now.

Unless something changes dramatically in the next week or so we will be facing financial Armageddon by the end of October.

Markets are predictable but a self inflicted gun shot wound to the head is inescapable.
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by williaty » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:26 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:50 pm
It's over.

We are in the end game now.

Unless something changes dramatically in the next week or so we will be facing financial Armageddon by the end of October.

Markets are predictable but a self inflicted gun shot wound to the head is inescapable.
What just happened to give you this opinion? I missed today's news.

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