Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

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woodsghost
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by woodsghost » Fri Dec 21, 2018 10:13 am

grumpyviking wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 10:00 am

its not the British way.
This I believe! It fits with my favorite images of the British people. It is a great way to be.
*Remember: I'm just a guy on the internet :)
*Don't go to stupid places with stupid people & do stupid things.
*Be courteous. Look normal. Be in bed by 10'clock.

“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” -Bilbo Baggins.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by grumpyviking » Fri Dec 21, 2018 10:14 am

woodsghost wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 10:13 am
grumpyviking wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 10:00 am

its not the British way.
This I believe! It fits with my favorite images of the British people. It is a great way to be.
thank you, i think?? :lol:
Survive, Adapt & Evolve .

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:45 pm

MPMalloy wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:45 am
grumpyviking wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:38 am
I don't prepare to fail, period. I can adapt if circumstances change but I dont plan to fail.
I don't plan to fail either. I do plan for the possibility that it might happen anyways. 'cause sometimes things do go wrong. :wink:
I am not, nor is ZS, saying "stand around and wait to die". Just the opposite. The message we scream everyday. "Be prepared...If you are ready for a zombie invasion you are prepared for anything." It is a tag line and does have some hyperbole in it, but it is our philosophy.

So do continue your preparations. Have a Plan. Have a plan B...always have a Plan B.

As for things being so bad that people may not want to live, I am also not saying that either. The shock of a real SHTF event is real. It results in many issues (such as survivor's guilt) that preppers who survive will have to deal with and master. However if you read the threads written by survivors on ZS they tend to focus more on embracing the suck as opposed being trampled by it.

Still every good plan recognizes that failure is possible in any human endeavor. Shit happens. Mr Murphy was a optimist. No sane person sets out to fail but it is equal lunacy not to take that possibility into account.

To quote Mike Tyson:
"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth"

To bring it back to the original reason for this discourse; despite our planning (or because we considered the alternative negative consequences) the cast majority of ZS'ers would prefer not to see how good their preparations work in a SHTF event.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:26 am

From NPR: Government Shuts Down Ahead Of Holiday Over Stalemate (policy)

The article, and even the title, refer to national policy. I did what I could to keep the firth here on ZS. Firth (peace) is priceless. The VA said, in a pre-recorded message that this shutdown will not affect any VA benefits. The same message when on to say that all VA reps were unavailable & to call back later. Overwhelming call volume.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by grumpyviking » Sat Dec 22, 2018 3:42 am

raptor wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:45 pm
MPMalloy wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:45 am
grumpyviking wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:38 am
I don't prepare to fail, period. I can adapt if circumstances change but I dont plan to fail.
I don't plan to fail either. I do plan for the possibility that it might happen anyways. 'cause sometimes things do go wrong. :wink:
I am not, nor is ZS, saying "stand around and wait to die". Just the opposite. The message we scream everyday. "Be prepared...If you are ready for a zombie invasion you are prepared for anything." It is a tag line and does have some hyperbole in it, but it is our philosophy.

So do continue your preparations. Have a Plan. Have a plan B...always have a Plan B.

As for things being so bad that people may not want to live, I am also not saying that either. The shock of a real SHTF event is real. It results in many issues (such as survivor's guilt) that preppers who survive will have to deal with and master. However if you read the threads written by survivors on ZS they tend to focus more on embracing the suck as opposed being trampled by it.

Still every good plan recognizes that failure is possible in any human endeavor. Shit happens. Mr Murphy was a optimist. No sane person sets out to fail but it is equal lunacy not to take that possibility into account.

To quote Mike Tyson:
"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth"

To bring it back to the original reason for this discourse; despite our planning (or because we considered the alternative negative consequences) the cast majority of ZS'ers would prefer not to see how good their preparations work in a SHTF event.
first of all, better to have something and not need it than to need it and not have it.
prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
failing to prepare is preparing to fail.
I have heard so many non preppers say they don't want to survive if its that bad, from one of our national explorers to people in the street.
I don't plan for death, if it happens it happens, but i'm planning for life not death. and I don't dwell on it either.
I plan for life after SHTF TEOTWAWKI whatever you want to call it, survive, adapt and move forward.
I think being British I probably have a different outlook on life, "dont give in and fight like hell" or maybe its "never say die"!! :lol:
Survive, Adapt & Evolve .

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:21 am

grumpyviking said: I don't plan for death, if it happens it happens, but i'm planning for life not death. and I don't dwell on it either.
I have too many people who depend on me, or who I care about, to not plan and prep for whatever might come down the pike. At the.core of my religious beliefs is Christ's admonition to "Love thy neighbor" (and not just the hot single mom next door) and that means doing what I can to look out for them, too.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by grumpyviking » Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:45 am

absinthe beginner wrote:
Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:21 am
grumpyviking said: I don't plan for death, if it happens it happens, but i'm planning for life not death. and I don't dwell on it either.
I have too many people who depend on me, or who I care about, to not plan and prep for whatever might come down the pike. At the.core of my religious beliefs is Christ's admonition to "Love thy neighbor" (and not just the hot single mom next door) and that means doing what I can to look out for them, too.
well thats your decision. me, my DUTY is to me and mine, not someone i dont know and much less care about.
wife and i are pagans and have more compassion towards the beasts of the fields than some people that cant be bothered to plan for themselves but have there hand out everytime something goes wrong.
but i see i am wasting my time here, everything here is so negative and dwelling on death instead of living.
goodbye.
Survive, Adapt & Evolve .

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by majorhavoc » Sat Dec 22, 2018 11:28 pm

absinthe beginner wrote:
Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:21 am
grumpyviking said: I don't plan for death, if it happens it happens, but i'm planning for life not death. and I don't dwell on it either.
I have too many people who depend on me, or who I care about, to not plan and prep for whatever might come down the pike. At the.core of my religious beliefs is Christ's admonition to "Love thy neighbor" (and not just the hot single mom next door) and that means doing what I can to look out for them, too.
Truth.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Dec 22, 2018 11:55 pm

majorhavoc wrote:
Sat Dec 22, 2018 11:28 pm
absinthe beginner wrote:
Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:21 am
grumpyviking said: I don't plan for death, if it happens it happens, but i'm planning for life not death. and I don't dwell on it either.
I have too many people who depend on me, or who I care about, to not plan and prep for whatever might come down the pike. At the.core of my religious beliefs is Christ's admonition to "Love thy neighbor" (and not just the hot single mom next door) and that means doing what I can to look out for them, too.
Truth.
Truth. I have a duty to me & mine first, but I will help others if I can.

People have helped me in my life, they asked for nothing in return. I needed help & they simply helped me.

May they Be Blessed.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by boskone » Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:01 am

MPMalloy wrote:
Sat Dec 22, 2018 11:55 pm
majorhavoc wrote:
Sat Dec 22, 2018 11:28 pm
absinthe beginner wrote:
Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:21 am
grumpyviking said: I don't plan for death, if it happens it happens, but i'm planning for life not death. and I don't dwell on it either.
I have too many people who depend on me, or who I care about, to not plan and prep for whatever might come down the pike. At the.core of my religious beliefs is Christ's admonition to "Love thy neighbor" (and not just the hot single mom next door) and that means doing what I can to look out for them, too.
Truth.
Truth. I have a duty to me & mine first, but I will help others if I can.

People have helped me in my life, they asked for nothing in return. I needed help & they simply helped me.

May they Be Blessed.
I don't believe in God, but I do believe in helping those who are struggling and just can't make it.

You do have to make sure it's appropriate (e.g. giving money to an addict is generally wildly counterproductive), but you shouldn't just refuse to help if you can.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:15 pm

How could the global economy crash? Let us count the ways

https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-op ... count-ways

Andy Xie says the stock sell-off in the US and elsewhere and the sharp decline in property prices all add up to more debt trouble at a time when debt is already sky-high. A repeat of the global financial crisis of a decade ago seems certain

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:09 pm

Unfortunatley this is the kind of news I can contribute on any given day:

Dow Suffers Record-Breaking Christmas Eve Losses

Stocks Hit 20-Month Low as D.C. Turmoil Weighs: Markets Wrap

How Bad Will It Get for the Stock Market?

Global Stock Angst Snowballs as Nikkei 225 Enters Bear Market

How could the global economy crash? Let us count the ways

The topic is about Debt. AWAK, economic numbers take time. A lot of time. Stocks can be followed tick-by-tick. This sucks in my mind because those markets, by themselves, show a narrow view of the overall picture.

Unless I'm wrong.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:11 pm

From Bloomberg: Don’t Be So Sure Hyperinflation Can’t Hit the U.S.
Some (CENSORED) back piling on even more debt to pay for social programs. That could be risky.
This is just an article about how this could happen, provided that everything happens just so.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by teotwaki » Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:51 pm

MPMalloy wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:11 pm
From Bloomberg: Don’t Be So Sure Hyperinflation Can’t Hit the U.S.
Some (CENSORED) back piling on even more debt to pay for social programs. That could be risky.
This is just an article about how this could happen, provided that everything happens just so.


Oh boy. A PAW due to overspending. Thanks for the link!

Reference article about "Modern Monetary Theory" that is a driver https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/a34n ... -explained
My adventures and pictures are on my blog http://suntothenorth.blogspot.com

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:19 pm

The US suffered years of double digit inflation until the mid 1980's after TEFRA of 1982.

Image

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... lation-cpi

Also the headline inflation rate today everyone sees is understated unless you do not use energy or eat food.

If you go back to 1988 after inflation had been tamed and compare what your $100 bill in 2018 purchased, you would would get only $48 of goods and services in 1988.
https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl ... ar2=201811

If what your 2019 $100 bill would purchase in 1978 you would be able to buy only $27 in goods and services.

Any inflation over decades is bad for everyone except debtors.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:04 pm

It's not all bad news. Technology has made a lot of things cheaper. In 1988 if I called California for ten minutes and talked to someone I was out $5, maybe more. Five years later it was $1, today? Free.

My parents cable bill was $35 and had I think, 35 channels.

Money is much cheaper.

An AR-15 was about $450. So, about the same.

A desk top 386 computer complete with 30lb monitor was at cheapest about $1500. If you wanted to save money you could get a 286.

A gallon of gas was $1.99. Same as it is today. Relative to inflation, electricity rates are about 25% lower than they were in 1988.

Appliances all cost about the same as they did back then. Just made in China instead of Japan.

A dress shirt was $12 at the discounter and $17 retail. A nice one was about $35. About the same as it is today.

Things that are more now? All the usual suspects like stuff they aren't making any more or any more of such as land, antiques, milsurp guns, etc.

Precious metals. Lots of reasons.

Meat and certain other food and food products. After and during the recession a lot of overseas companies moved in and bought up several large meat companies in the US (JBS, Smithfield, Pilgrims, etc). A lot of it is getting shipped overseas now due to the increase in wealth in other nations and of course the games with the prices. Poorer nations are making less food than ever relative to their population but still make of plenty of babies. So increased demand, lower supply. If Cargill ever sells out I am back to raising my own.

Bio-diesel of course caused a huge increase in the price of food and IMO is a program that needed to go away years ago. In fact if they scrap that program I am willing to bet food prices will crash by about 20% within three years.
These days of dust
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And I'll kneel down
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:19 pm

From Bloomberg: U.S. Treasury Set to Borrow $1 Trillion for a Second Year to Finance the Deficit

I'll see if I can find more. Peace. & reduce your personal debt.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Wed May 22, 2019 7:32 am

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... ld-trouble

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner says if there was ever a global canary in the coal mine warning for the financial system, it is Germany’s Deutsche Bank (DB). Late last year, Nenner predicted if DB stock went below $8 a share, “You should be worried.” Recently, DB stock hit all-time lows and now sits around the $7.40 per share level.

Nenner warns, “I see it can hold up to late July, and then it can go to $6.50 (per share)..."

"If it breaks below $6.40, it can go out of business. So, it’s a very serious situation... I think all the markets can have a bounce in a couple of days to the end of July. That’s why DB might hold up, but if it gets below $6.40, the world is in trouble.”

This is not a hyped prediction considering the IMF called DB the “most systemically dangerous bank” in the world in 2016. If DB does break $6.40, do we get a daisy chain of default around the world? Nenner says:

“It is a very dangerous situation. I don’t think DB is the only one. They just got caught. I think if you look at the balance sheets very closely of other banks, especially Europe and Italian banks, you will see a lot of troubling signs also. I don’t think it’s only Deutsche Bank. It’s much more...

If it breaks $6.40, the downside price target is zero. If everybody watches my analysis and it does go below $6.40, everybody is going to run for the exits.”

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Wed May 22, 2019 1:18 pm

DB is believed to be badly leveraged in to the S&P 500 and with trade war coming in the market will likely be flat this year. They have also never met a banking scandal they didn't like from money laundering to corporate spying on customers and competitors and everything you can think of in between. Hell, they were even pirating carbon credits showing what great forward thinkers they are. They were huge in the economic meltdown in 2007-8 and because they knew it was coming positioned themselves to make a tidy profit in 2009.

The release of the Panama Papers may however have been their Swan Song. China has heavily invested in the bank and the wealthy in China were essentially using it as money laundering/ Tax evasion bank. The money trail leads all the way back to the family of Xi Jinping which is about as high as it gets. This includes over $100BN US "invested" in the Caymans and BVI. This is more than 20 times the GDP of both areas combined. It even exceeds the amount China has legally invested in the US. I think the Chinese understand how off shore banking works they just have a problem with scale.

The stock is already in the toilet and down 90% off the ten year high. If regulators pursue the bank with vigor it could well go under. However; China will almost certainly pick up the pieces to keep it from going bankrupt and under German Government control. There is too much risk for exposure for China's elite if the bank goes under government control. If they fail then the fallout around the world will be considerable.

The Chinese however may not back them if they think the damage has already been done. Government regulators seized truckloads full of documents late last year and that triggered a big slide. This may be why they are falling apart at the seams now. It is doubtful that a bankruptcy will trigger a world economic meltdown unless there is a much bigger underlying problem that has yet to be identified.
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Wed May 22, 2019 6:47 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 1:18 pm
It is doubtful that a bankruptcy will trigger a world economic meltdown unless there is a much bigger underlying problem that has yet to be identified.
What do you think that 'problem' might be?

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Thu May 23, 2019 7:01 am

MPMalloy wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 6:47 pm
Stercutus wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 1:18 pm
It is doubtful that a bankruptcy will trigger a world economic meltdown unless there is a much bigger underlying problem that has yet to be identified.
What do you think that 'problem' might be?
Given their lengthy history of corporate greed, malfeasance and how their bonuses are structured a worst case scenario would be a hidden Peter-Paul game. That could send serious shocks. More likely it would be case of equity valuations and exposure to bad debt and poor option positions. The last being the most likely. If you understand how leveraged options work this could be catastrophic depending upon what they did.

This is raw speculation on my part.
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground


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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by boskone » Tue May 28, 2019 10:02 pm

Regarding at least the rare earths, there's an Australian company looking to open a refinery here in the US. Turns out we export rare earths to Chinese refineries.

If it goes through rare earth would be more expensive, but on the other hand I think an increase in price would be worth a domestic source of a strategic resource.

Regarding the economics, I'm getting mixed signals depending on source. I'm going to hold off, just to see if some deal or something comes out of all this economic jockeying.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Wed May 29, 2019 6:20 pm

Google coverage about the PRC using rare-earth mineral boycott to "hamper" US DOD

I'm w/boskone. I'll sit back & watch what, if anything, becomes of this.

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