Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Topics in this category pertain to planning. Discussions include how to prepare yourself, your family and your community for catastrophes and what you plan to do when they hit you.

Moderator: ZS Global Moderators

User avatar
Stercutus
* * * * *
Posts: 12248
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 8:16 pm
Location: Bouncing in to Graceland

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:48 pm

David Stockman warns that the global economy has reached an "epochal pivot", a moment when the false prosperity created from $trillions in printed money by the world's central banks lurches violently into reverse.
I seem to recall hearing this from the same guy previously.... oh yeah I did....

2013
https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/USA-Updat ... ky-old-man

https://www.businessinsider.com/david-s ... med-2013-3

America is Doomed

2014
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/d ... orld-news/

Collapse will be catastrophic

2015
https://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/07/stocks- ... ckman.html

David Stockman has long warned that the stock market is on the verge of a massive collapse
"I think it's pretty obvious that the top is in,"
2016
https://www.profitconfidential.com/u-s- ... -imminent/

Collapse is Immient!

2017
http://truthandmercyministries.blogspot ... nd-to.html

David Stockman- Everything Will Grind to a Halt in 2017


Maybe not the go-to guy for economic tea leaf reading. But who knows? Maybe he is on it this time...
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother

williaty
* * * * *
Posts: 1631
Joined: Sun Oct 09, 2011 1:50 am
Location: Midwest

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by williaty » Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:15 pm

ZeroHedge preaches the end is near more often than an Appalachian televangelist and with just as much accuracy to what financial markets actually do. In fact, ZH actually disproves the adage that "even a blind pig finds an acorn once in a while". If ZH broke a clock, it wouldn't be right even once a day, let alone twice.

User avatar
flybynight
* * * * *
Posts: 2217
Joined: Sun Dec 01, 2013 12:30 am

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by flybynight » Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:09 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:48 pm
David Stockman warns that the global economy has reached an "epochal pivot", a moment when the false prosperity created from $trillions in printed money by the world's central banks lurches violently into reverse.
I seem to recall hearing this from the same guy previously.... oh yeah I did....

2013
https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/USA-Updat ... ky-old-man

https://www.businessinsider.com/david-s ... med-2013-3

America is Doomed

2014
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/d ... orld-news/

Collapse will be catastrophic

2015
https://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/07/stocks- ... ckman.html

David Stockman has long warned that the stock market is on the verge of a massive collapse
"I think it's pretty obvious that the top is in,"
2016
https://www.profitconfidential.com/u-s- ... -imminent/

Collapse is Immient!

2017
http://truthandmercyministries.blogspot ... nd-to.html

David Stockman- Everything Will Grind to a Halt in 2017


Maybe not the go-to guy for economic tea leaf reading. But who knows? Maybe he is on it this time...
Even a broken watch is right once a day.
As of now I bet you got me wrong

John Titor was right

williaty
* * * * *
Posts: 1631
Joined: Sun Oct 09, 2011 1:50 am
Location: Midwest

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by williaty » Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:11 pm

flybynight wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:09 pm
Even a broken watch is right once a day.
ZeroHedge's broken watch is pointing to the 25th hour...

MPMalloy
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:48 am

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:58 pm

I've never heard anything (that was positive) that I believed, about ZH. I've been there several times.

It's crap. Deliberate click-bait-crap.

User avatar
raptor
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 16246
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:18 pm
Location: Greater New Orleans Area

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:15 pm

williaty wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:11 pm
flybynight wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:09 pm
Even a broken watch is right once a day.
ZeroHedge's broken watch is pointing to the 25th hour...
One thing to remember. There is no one Zero Hedge rather it is many different posters with opinions on many financial matters.

As with many things financial caveat emptor.

I would note the date this thread was created and likewise note that TEOTWAWKI has not occurred yet. That said, past performance likewise may or may not reflect future performance.

User avatar
raptor
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 16246
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:18 pm
Location: Greater New Orleans Area

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:55 pm

Despite the popularity of this topic since it is now 8 years old I think it no longer qualifies and current and will be moved to CP&P

absinthe beginner
* * * * *
Posts: 1006
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:05 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shawn of the Dead
Location: Colorado

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:57 pm

I dunno Raptor, looks like things are just starting to unravel.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08- ... rket-looms

MPMalloy
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:48 am

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:20 pm

How about "Global Debt Time Bomb May or May Not Explode, Someday. :clownshoes:

Com'n...it's funny!

User avatar
flybynight
* * * * *
Posts: 2217
Joined: Sun Dec 01, 2013 12:30 am

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by flybynight » Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:32 pm

Ok but if my global debt explodes it's Raptors fault
As of now I bet you got me wrong

John Titor was right

User avatar
raptor
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 16246
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:18 pm
Location: Greater New Orleans Area

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:45 pm

Global that has already exploded in terms of its magnitude. The real issue is can the central Bankers hold it together and if so for how long?

MPMalloy
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:48 am

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:29 pm

raptor wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:45 pm
Global that has already exploded in terms of its magnitude. The real issue is can the central Bankers hold it together and if so for how long?
It seems that I always here about 'everything crashes at once, or, Everything crashes in a matter of a week or so. It's happens overnight.

:roll:

Here are two real-world examples that were global in scope:

Great Depression
Great Recession

The causes that led up these events, the 'crash', & the their recoveries, all took time - usually measured in months & years. A few things like the Wall St. crash happened in a matter of days.

shit. i dunno.

absinthe beginner
* * * * *
Posts: 1006
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:05 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shawn of the Dead
Location: Colorado

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:37 am

Nomi Prins, journalist and author of ‘Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged the World’, talks to Chris Hedges about how central bankers “overstepped their traditional mandates by directing the flow of epic sums of fabricated money without any checks and balances.”

https://www.rt.com/shows/on-contact/436 ... collusion/

MPMalloy
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:48 am

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:37 pm

How Crises and Bailouts Have Changed Greece’s Economy
By Marcus Bensasson ‎August‎ ‎19‎, ‎2018‎ ‎02‎:‎00‎ ‎CDT Updated on ‎August‎ ‎20‎, ‎2018‎ ‎03‎:‎33‎ ‎CDT

Aid came with rules that transformed public finances, banks

Economic slump pushed up unemployment, left Greeks poorer

Phyllis Papadavid, senior research fellow at Overseas Development Institute, discusses Greece’s bailout program.

Greece is about to exit its bailout, a symbolic move past the debt crisis that exploded eight years ago and transformed the country’s economy and the lives of its people.

At the time of the May 2010 aid package -- the first of three -- politicians from euro-area creditor countries argued the crisis was the result of chronic fiscal and economic indiscipline. To justify breaching a “no bailout clause,” loans were tied to strict conditions covering everything from government spending to public administration and justice.

So how has Greece performed?

Economic Hit
While Greece’s crash rippled far beyond the borders of the country of just 11 million people, the effect at home was particularly dramatic. Economic output fell by a quarter and living standards collapsed after the loss of more than a million jobs pushed unemployment at one point to 28 percent.

Getting Squeezed
Greek incomes plunged as the country shed jobs, wages fell and taxes rose

For the country’s creditors, this was the cost of putting economic growth on a sustainable footing.

“The ultimate goal of the financial assistance plan and reforms in Greece over the past eight years has been to create a new basis for healthy and sustainable growth,” Portuguese Finance Minister Mario Centeno, who chairs meetings of his euro-area counterparts, said in a statement on Monday. “It took much longer than expected but I believe we are there.”

Public Finances
The Greek leg of the global financial crisis was sparked when George Papandreou’s newly elected government revealed that the country had misled the world about its finances and the 2009 budget deficit had swelled to more than 15 percent of gross domestic product, five times the EU limit.

In recent years, the debate on Greek finances has turned more to the amount of public debt and the fiscal balance excluding the costs of servicing that debt. That’s meant less attention on the fact that for two years now, revenue has exceeded spending and the government has run an overall surplus.

Fiscal Stance
Greece slashed spending and raised taxes to get its budget back in balance

This has been achieved by slashing spending while holding revenue more or less unchanged. But given the extent of the slump, maintaining steady revenue meant a huge squeeze on middle-class Greeks, who’ve had to stump up more and more in taxes.

Tax Burden
Greeks had to stump up more of their income to prop up revenue in a slump

Public Administration
On the spending side, Greece’s fiscal problems were partly caused by an explosion of public-sector jobs in the years before the crash. A refusal to fire workers became an early flash point between the government and the bailout providers.

Shrinking State
Greece has reduced its number of public employees mostly through attrition

Those arguments dissipated after Greece shrunk the public payroll by 150,000 jobs by only hiring one person for every five departures and not renewing temporary contracts.

Still, progress has been slow in improving the speed of resolving civil disputes in the justice system, and the burden of red tape has made it harder to attract investment.

Competitiveness
Over the last eight years, a constant refrain from euro-area nations and the IMF was that Greece needs more structural reforms to make it more competitive. Over three bailouts, it’s sold state assets, made sweeping changes to the electricity market and changed regulations covering everything from lawyers to hairdressers.

There was also a big fall in labor costs, particularly after reforms to collective bargaining rules and a cut in the minimum wage in 2012. Bailout lenders argue that the drop merely offset the big run-up in the years before the crisis, which wasn’t matched by an increase in the economy’s productive capacity.

Falling Wages
Greek workers have seen pay per hour worked cut almost a fifth since 2010

Along with rising taxes and the loss of jobs, the hit to wages was a major contributor to the drop in Greek living standards. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras wants to roll back some of the labor reforms after the bailout, including increasing the minimum wage.

Greece hasn’t experienced the kind of export-led recovery seen in other crisis countries, like Ireland and Spain. But it’s almost eliminated its external current account deficit, as well as increasing exports’ low share of GDP.

External Rebalancing
Greece's export sector has grown in proportion to an overall shrinking economy

Financial Sector
At the outset of the Greek crisis, the country’s bankers liked to argued that their institutions were conservatively run, and that this was a problem born in the public sector. Whatever the truth of the claim, it didn’t take long for a sovereign-banking doom loop to lay the sector to waste.

The banks were rendered insolvent for a while after the 2012 debt restructuring wiped out the value of their bond portfolios, and three years later they were shuttered for weeks before reopening with capital controls in place. They’re still dealing with the fallout, saddled with soured loans amounting to almost 50 percent of their book.

Funding Mix
Greek lenders have been slowly getting themselves off central bank life support

These travails have led to a loss of deposits and interbank funding lines, with lenders kept on life support by central bank liquidity. The need for that emergency funding has steadily diminished and, in the buildup to the bailout exit, it was even surpassed by interbank funding for the first time since the start of the crisis.

(Updates with Centeno comment in sixth paragraph.)
There were a number of charts & graphs on the webpage - you know, for econ-nerds.

absinthe beginner
* * * * *
Posts: 1006
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:05 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shawn of the Dead
Location: Colorado

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:44 am

Global debt soars along with fears of crisis ahead. This is not going to end well.

http://www.savannahnow.com/news/2018090 ... isis-ahead

Ten years after the worst financial panic since the 1930s, growing debt burdens in key developing economies are fueling fears of a new crisis that could spread far beyond the disruption sweeping Turkey.

The loss of investor confidence in the Turkish lira, which has surrendered more than 40 percent of its value this year, is only a preview of debt problems that could engulf countries such as Brazil, South Africa, Russia and Indonesia, some economists say.

“Turkey is not the last one,” said Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, an economics professor at the University of Maryland. “Turkey is the beginning.”

MPMalloy
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:48 am

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:30 pm

The following is from the Mises Institute. Purportedly about Economics, it is quite political: Governments Default on Debt More than You Think.

YMMV.

MPMalloy
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:48 am

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:07 pm

Marketplace is my main go-to for economic news. No more bailouts: The lawmakers behind Dodd-Frank say that taxpayers won’t foot the bill the next time a bank fails
In the event of another financial crisis, the lawmakers behind one of America’s largest financial reform bills say the government would not get the political support it needs for a bailout.

Former Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd and former Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank — the co-authors of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, a law aimed at making banks safer in order to protect consumers and the economy — told Marketplace that legislators wouldn’t agree to save failing financial institutions with taxpayer money like they did back in 2008.

“Not only politically could you not get away with what we were able to do in 2008, but legally you cannot do it,” Dodd said.

absinthe beginner
* * * * *
Posts: 1006
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:05 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shawn of the Dead
Location: Colorado

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:22 am

This is how global financial contagion starts. The shadow banking systems in India and China are disasters waiting to happen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... due-friday

User avatar
Stercutus
* * * * *
Posts: 12248
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 8:16 pm
Location: Bouncing in to Graceland

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Sun Sep 23, 2018 1:10 pm

MPMalloy wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:07 pm
Marketplace is my main go-to for economic news. No more bailouts: The lawmakers behind Dodd-Frank say that taxpayers won’t foot the bill the next time a bank fails
In the event of another financial crisis, the lawmakers behind one of America’s largest financial reform bills say the government would not get the political support it needs for a bailout.

Former Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd and former Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank — the co-authors of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, a law aimed at making banks safer in order to protect consumers and the economy — told Marketplace that legislators wouldn’t agree to save failing financial institutions with taxpayer money like they did back in 2008.

“Not only politically could you not get away with what we were able to do in 2008, but legally you cannot do it,” Dodd said.
Un-huh. Since he is a "former" senator he certainly won't be there to stop anyone from doing anything. Including changing whatever law he thinks will prevent whatever he thinks is going to happen.
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother

absinthe beginner
* * * * *
Posts: 1006
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:05 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shawn of the Dead
Location: Colorado

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Sun Sep 23, 2018 5:49 pm

Debts, over-stretched markets and global slowdown threaten economy, world’s central banks warn

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... n-economy/

Surging risky debts, rocky financial markets and signs of a growth slowdown threaten to strike the world economy at a time when central banks have little ammunition left to fight back.

“Further turbulence” is on the way as markets are “overstretched, financial conditions are too easy and debt, globally, is too high,” warned the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the global forum for central bankers.

It comes after the OECD and credit ratings agency Fitch both cut their global economic growth forecast and economists increasingly fear a recession could strike in 2020.

The risks identified by BIS analysts differ from the financial crisis because that was characterised in large part by excessive...

absinthe beginner
* * * * *
Posts: 1006
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:05 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shawn of the Dead
Location: Colorado

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:03 am

Will Italy be the catalyst for the next financial crisis?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10- ... on-spreads

World stocks slumped, European assets sold off and the Euro dropped to a three week low on Tuesday after anti-euro comments from an Italian party official sent renewed shockwaves across Europe and the globe, and pushed Italy’s bond yields up to multi-year highs.

absinthe beginner
* * * * *
Posts: 1006
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:05 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shawn of the Dead
Location: Colorado

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:06 am

After months of being beaten down, precious meals are suddenly popping. As global markets look increasingly like bubbles waiting to burst, has the flight to safe haven begun?

http://www.kitco.com/market/

User avatar
teotwaki
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 4179
Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2009 11:58 pm
Contact:

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by teotwaki » Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:30 am

We could take the 4150 posts in this thread's eight year life and graph them and see if all the "predictions" of doom have any sort of trend that makes more sense than the financial charts

Image.
My adventures and pictures are on my blog http://suntothenorth.blogspot.com

MPMalloy
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:48 am

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:46 am

teotwaki wrote:
Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:30 am
We could take the 4150 posts in this thread's eight year life and graph them and see if all the "predictions" of doom have any sort of trend that makes more sense than the financial charts

Image.
That is a very good idea! :D

Post Reply

Return to “Contingency Planning & Preparation”