Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:09 am

TacAir wrote:
ineffableone wrote:
phil_in_cs wrote:I've been hearing the "any minute now" on the debt bomb busting since the late 1970's. People were probably saying it earlier, I just wasn't paying attention.

I will bump this to off topic in the morning unless someone can demonstrate this is "Current Events". Howard Ruff and Gary North made a pretty good case for it being immanent 30 years ago.
Yep this thread has been going since 2010 and is almost 150 pages but the debt time bomb still has yet to go ka boom. That is not to say it wont some time in the near future, but it is hard to pin down and say this is the time it will happen.
I guess it is where you live if the "ka boom" has happened. I see high unemployment state-wide, many on welfare/food stamps, dropping property values, skyrocketing rental prices and family's moving out of the area. Prices for food, energy and hard goods have climbed, even by the already stupidly high prices here.

OTOH - I just back from a visit to Austin, TX (GO Longhorns). No shortage of jobs there and prices on homes/rent is very reasonable.


So - maybe not so much 'carpet bombing' as some areas are getting hammered, others, they are doing much better.
Localized hardships, yes, global timebomb, no. Localized hardships are why financial preparation is more important than a well-stocked arsenal.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Zimmy » Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:44 am

Doctorr Fabulous wrote:
TacAir wrote:
ineffableone wrote:
phil_in_cs wrote:I've been hearing the "any minute now" on the debt bomb busting since the late 1970's. People were probably saying it earlier, I just wasn't paying attention.

I will bump this to off topic in the morning unless someone can demonstrate this is "Current Events". Howard Ruff and Gary North made a pretty good case for it being immanent 30 years ago.
Yep this thread has been going since 2010 and is almost 150 pages but the debt time bomb still has yet to go ka boom. That is not to say it wont some time in the near future, but it is hard to pin down and say this is the time it will happen.
I guess it is where you live if the "ka boom" has happened. I see high unemployment state-wide, many on welfare/food stamps, dropping property values, skyrocketing rental prices and family's moving out of the area. Prices for food, energy and hard goods have climbed, even by the already stupidly high prices here.

OTOH - I just back from a visit to Austin, TX (GO Longhorns). No shortage of jobs there and prices on homes/rent is very reasonable.


So - maybe not so much 'carpet bombing' as some areas are getting hammered, others, they are doing much better.
Localized hardships, yes, global timebomb, no. Localized hardships are why financial preparation is more important than a well-stocked arsenal.

Well said. Its gonna take a lot to knock the whole world off the tracks.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Mon Jun 09, 2014 1:59 pm

Zimmy wrote:
Well said. Its gonna take a lot to knock the whole world off the tracks.

I agree well said Doc.

On the other hand I am sure people were thinking this in 1914 and 1938 as well as a few other points in human history. :wink:

The bottom line is that the probability of the sun coming up tomorrow is very high...on the other hand the high probability of the sun coming up tomorrow has no bearing on whether or not you be able to see it.

YMMV so ... Plan accordingly. :D

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Tue Jun 24, 2014 5:31 pm

This is interesting.

January 16, 2013 Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, said it will ship back home all 374 tons it had stored with the Banque de France in Paris, as well as 300 tons held in Manhattan by the US Federal Reserve, by 2020. Fast forward 18 months and the Federal Bank of Germany has only managed to bring home 37 tonnes (10%+/-) of gold held by the US.

I have been watching this story with curiosity. Clearly the Germans would be on top of this but one never knows about these things. Then Germany decides that it has changed it's mind and does not want the gold returned.

This is one of those stories that you know the public answers are not the whole truth but there is no way of ever really knowing the back office reality.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-2 ... bters.html

http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_06_24/Ger ... plan-7743/

Germany has decided its gold is safe in American hands.

Surging mistrust of the euro during Europe’s debt crisis fed a campaign to bring Germany’s entire $141 billion gold reserve home from New York and London. Now, after politics shifted in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition, the government has concluded that stashing half its bullion abroad is prudent after all.

“The Americans are taking good care of our gold,” Norbert Barthle, the budget spokesman for Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc in parliament, said in an interview. “Objectively, there’s absolutely no reason for mistrust.”

Ending talk of repatriating the world’s second-biggest gold reserves removes a potential irritant in U.S.-German relations. It’s also a rebuff to critics including the anti-euro Alternative for Germany party, which says all the gold should return to Frankfurt so it can’t be impounded to blackmail Germany into keeping the currency union together.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Zimmy » Tue Jun 24, 2014 8:58 pm

I'm 46.

It sure as hell was easier to live happy in 1994 than it is now. Things were simple then, but by God I'm not too damned fancy today. Back then we were feeding a mess of kids and single buddies all the time. Now I've got a job we woulda thought high fancy cotton back then and times seem harder than ever.....

Are y'all sure the bomb didn't already go off??
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Murphman » Wed Jun 25, 2014 8:28 am

Real GDP was revised to a negative 2.9% making Q1 2014 the worst quarter since Q1 2009.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nationa ... 14_3rd.pdf

and by the way, this is the third and final revision, each of which got successively worse.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Wed Jun 25, 2014 1:46 pm

Murphman wrote:Real GDP was revised to a negative 2.9% making Q1 2014 the worst quarter since Q1 2009.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nationa ... 14_3rd.pdf

and by the way, this is the third and final revision, each of which got successively worse.

Yes indeed reminds of stagflation in the 70's

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Wed Jun 25, 2014 7:36 pm

raptor wrote:
Murphman wrote:Real GDP was revised to a negative 2.9% making Q1 2014 the worst quarter since Q1 2009.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nationa ... 14_3rd.pdf

and by the way, this is the third and final revision, each of which got successively worse.

Yes indeed reminds of stagflation in the 70's
And yet the same government that keeps revising it's figures keeps telling me that inflation and unemployment are low. :?

Even though there are enough dollar bills out there to cover the whole DC Mall area in bills one hundred feet high. It is almost like the dinner check came to the table and somehow I have to pay the whole thing even though I did not eat.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by sheddi » Fri Jun 27, 2014 1:25 pm

Not strictly "global debt" but still part of the broader economic picture, here's a perspective I've not really considered:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/23/upsho ... chest.html
The American middle class, long the most affluent in the world, has lost that distinction.

While the wealthiest Americans are outpacing many of their global peers, a New York Times analysis shows that across the lower- and middle-income tiers, citizens of other advanced countries have received considerably larger raises over the last three decades.

After-tax middle-class incomes in Canada — substantially behind in 2000 — now appear to be higher than in the United States. The poor in much of Europe earn more than poor Americans.

The numbers, based on surveys conducted over the past 35 years, offer some of the most detailed publicly available comparisons for different income groups in different countries over time. They suggest that most American families are paying a steep price for high and rising income inequality.
There's much more to the article; you'll find it at the link.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by solrac7 » Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:28 pm

So with the Dow over 1700, is this just another bubble waiting for a pin ? I would really hate to lose it all AGAIN (and no, Raptor - not all, I am diversified...). Are we all waiting for the student loan crisis, 17.6 trillion national debt, end of the US dollar as reserve currency crisis to kick in ? Or am I truly just paranoid (well, not completely paranoid).

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:48 pm

solrac7 wrote:So with the Dow over 1700, is this just another bubble waiting for a pin ? I would really hate to lose it all AGAIN (and no, Raptor - not all, I am diversified...). Are we all waiting for the student loan crisis, 17.6 trillion national debt, end of the US dollar as reserve currency crisis to kick in ? Or am I truly just paranoid (well, not completely paranoid).

Cb
The Dow is just one indicator and I can absolutely promise you that it will go up and will go down. I agree that with unemployment so high (despite the official claims of much lower unemployment) that the pricing for many stocks seem higher than one would like.

I also agree that the core issues have not been addressed and are likely to get worse before they get better. That said I am convinced that the Dow is more likely to be higher at year end than lower. YMMV obviously.

The one thing I am waiting to see is what happens when (not if) the Fed raises interest rates. One explanation for the Dow's results is people not reinvesting in bonds as they mature because of a fear of locking into a low rate bond and taking the market value drop when interest rates increase. Obviously if you hold the bond to maturity this loss of paper value is meaningless. Still I know as my bond ladders have matured this year I have split some of the issues into equities instead of bonds both for better cash flow from dividends and lack of decent munis.

The above is opinion and not investment advice. :D
Last edited by raptor on Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by solrac7 » Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:13 pm

Raptor,

You da' bomb !

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:12 pm

This article also discusses the bubble you asked about.

What can I say a bull market climbs a wall of worry. It also sort of reflects my opinion on the subject.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/third-big ... 55752.html

U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued on certain key long-term measures, according to research by financial consultant Andrew Smithers, the chairman of Smithers & Co. and one of the few to warn about the bubble of the late 1990s at the time.

The five dates listed at the start of this article, he says, are the only times since 1802, when data began being tracked, when stocks have been 50% or more overvalued according to these measures. And only two of those bubbles — 1929 and 1999, both of which were followed by disastrous crashes — were bigger than today.

That’s right: According to Smithers’s data, we are now in the third biggest bubble in U.S. history. (Oh, to jump ahead slightly, he also suspects it will go up even further before it comes back down.)

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Wed Jul 16, 2014 5:46 pm

Fed chairman thinks some stocks are overvalued:

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco ... otech.html

"We are not ones that believe that there is a bubble, but we do believe that some businesses are overvalued these days.
The proverbial "but"...We are not saying there is a bubble, "but"....



Specifically some startups and social media stocks.
“Valuation metrics in some sectors do appear substantially stretched — particularly those for smaller firms in the social media and biotechnology industries, despite a notable downturn in equity prices for such firms early in the year," Yellen said, sending stocks on Wall Street down in morning trading.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by DarkAxel » Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:16 pm

There seems to be a glut of IPOs from app companies these days, so much that I am reminded of the dot com bubble. I am not saying that if it pops then DOOM!, but it is an issue that I'd keep an eye on if you have money in the market
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NamelessStain » Thu Jul 17, 2014 5:50 am

raptor wrote:Fed chairman thinks some stocks are overvalued:

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco ... otech.html

"We are not ones that believe that there is a bubble, but we do believe that some businesses are overvalued these days.
The proverbial "but"...We are not saying there is a bubble, "but"....



Specifically some startups and social media stocks.
“Valuation metrics in some sectors do appear substantially stretched — particularly those for smaller firms in the social media and biotechnology industries, despite a notable downturn in equity prices for such firms early in the year," Yellen said, sending stocks on Wall Street down in morning trading.
It's actually quite amazing he said that. Especially with the current atmosphere of "don't say anything bad". It's like if they don't talk about it, nothing will happen.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by duodecima » Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:25 am

NamelessStain wrote:
raptor wrote:Fed chairman thinks some stocks are overvalued:

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco ... otech.html

"We are not ones that believe that there is a bubble, but we do believe that some businesses are overvalued these days.
The proverbial "but"...We are not saying there is a bubble, "but"....



Specifically some startups and social media stocks.
“Valuation metrics in some sectors do appear substantially stretched — particularly those for smaller firms in the social media and biotechnology industries, despite a notable downturn in equity prices for such firms early in the year," Yellen said, sending stocks on Wall Street down in morning trading.
It's actually quite amazing he said that. Especially with the current atmosphere of "don't say anything bad". It's like if they don't talk about it, nothing will happen.
Better for the markets (and the economy) if it never becomes a bubble, or if it deflates early and slowly if it is a bubble. The last 2 recessions are blamed at least in part on popping bubbles.

And yeah, if Yellen said that, she means it. There's a lot of people pissed she got so specific (NYT article about it, can't post link from phone). But, see above about the last 2 recessions...
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Mikeyboy » Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:15 am

Zimmy wrote:I'm 46.

It sure as hell was easier to live happy in 1994 than it is now. Things were simple then, but by God I'm not too damned fancy today. Back then we were feeding a mess of kids and single buddies all the time. Now I've got a job we woulda thought high fancy cotton back then and times seem harder than ever.....

Are y'all sure the bomb didn't already go off??
I am a year younger than you and I definitely see what you are saying in a way. I make twice as much now then I did 20 years ago, but back then I had basic cable, no internet and no smart phone. I also learned the hard lesson that kids get real expensive in the teenage years. I was warned by my elder but didn't listen.

That said from 1994 to 2006 was a steady building up. Got married, bought a house. I was able to buy a new car for the first time in 1994, a tiny compact. In 2002 I bough a nice new SUV. The late 90's thru 2001 was a bit shaky but OK. My 401k took some hits between the Dot.com bubble and 9/11. After that I was living high on the hog between 2002 and 2008. I bought a gun almost yearly, went on great vacations, kids got what they wanted for Christmas and birthdays within reason of course. Then the crash in 2008 happened. 401K took a major hit and things got spooky in 2008 and 2009. Now here is the funny part, sure my 401K looks better today, but I definitely see a major decline in not only my standard of living but others around me. My salary stayed stagnant since 2008 while things got more expense. Things like food, health insurance, gasoline, and just overall price creep of everything really ate away at the family's bottom line. I have basically gone from everything is paid early, money is being put away, and I have tons of funny money left over, to living paycheck to paycheck, cutting extra expenses, and unless it free or cheap, really not doing much of nothing anymore. Last year I bought a used car, first time in almost 20 years I didn't buy new. I couldn't afford it any other way.

The kicker is my wife and I make good money. I'm not rich, but combined the wife and I make a good amount of money. I don't know how people making less then us do it. Also while the stock market seems to be improving, work and home finances don't seem to be, its actually getting increasingly worse.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:50 am

Mikeyboy wrote:
Now here is the funny part, sure my 401K looks better today, but I definitely see a major decline in not only my standard of living but others around me. My salary stayed stagnant since 2008 while things got more expense. Things like food, health insurance, gasoline, and just overall price creep of everything really ate away at the family's bottom line. I have basically gone from everything is paid early, money is being put away, and I have tons of funny money left over, to living paycheck to paycheck, cutting extra expenses, and unless it free or cheap, really not doing much of nothing anymore.

Welcome to stagflation.

This is very similar to what happened in the late 70's early 80's. The difference is that the inflation stats then were a bit more accurate. The true inflation rate today is well over 7% despite the lower headline number regurgitated by the press.

I don't know how people making less then us do it.
I was in the grocery store buying steaks for a 4th of July cook out and got a sticker shock when I noticed the steaks were more expensive per pound than the locally caught shrimp. I had a similar thought as I decided that smaller steaks with shrimp kabobs made more sense than simply steaks.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:50 pm


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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Mikeyboy » Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:27 pm

raptor wrote:
Mikeyboy wrote:
Now here is the funny part, sure my 401K looks better today, but I definitely see a major decline in not only my standard of living but others around me. My salary stayed stagnant since 2008 while things got more expense. Things like food, health insurance, gasoline, and just overall price creep of everything really ate away at the family's bottom line. I have basically gone from everything is paid early, money is being put away, and I have tons of funny money left over, to living paycheck to paycheck, cutting extra expenses, and unless it free or cheap, really not doing much of nothing anymore.

Welcome to stagflation.

This is very similar to what happened in the late 70's early 80's. The difference is that the inflation stats then were a bit more accurate. The true inflation rate today is well over 7% despite the lower headline number regurgitated by the press.

I don't know how people making less then us do it.
I was in the grocery store buying steaks for a 4th of July cook out and got a sticker shock when I noticed the steaks were more expensive per pound than the locally caught shrimp. I had a similar thought as I decided that smaller steaks with shrimp kabobs made more sense than simply steaks.
I was young in the 1970's, but pretty much I'm seeing that same economic vibe.

Gas and other commodities are more expensive while salaries and businesses are stagnant. The job numbers may have improved since 2008, but I had some feelers out recently and simply put there may be job openings but they are not willing to pay as well as they did pre-2008 crash.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by solarguy » Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:26 pm

Shadow stats is worth mentioning again, which very systematically shows the feds for the liars they are when it comes to stats on the economy.

http://www.shadowstats.com/


I was buying meat at Wal-Mart, and overheard -two- separate conversations about not buying this or that meat because it was too expensive.

The middle class is slowly being strangled.

When regular folks have to cut back on meat, at Wal-Mart, something is not right.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:11 am

solarguy wrote:Shadow stats is worth mentioning again, which very systematically shows the feds for the liars they are when it comes to stats on the economy.

http://www.shadowstats.com/

Quoted for the truth.

The headline inflation number you see quoted all the time is dithered but even without the dithering it is valid only for people who do not eat or pay for any kind of energy.
It excludes food and energy costs.

I personally use the Wendy/Burger King menu index. That is the cost of Wendy's #1 or a Whopper combo. Simply track the price change and see what impact inflation has on their pricing. It is imperfect since they frequently reduce the size of the side item. However, IMO it is a better index than the headline number posted by the Dept of Commerce.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Zimmy » Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:48 pm

Funny.

I divide an hour's net pay by the cost of a loaf of white bread.
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