Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by CaptBrainFreeze » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:00 am

How about now? Everything is in the green at the moment...

Is this a non concern day? I'll take one right about now lol.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by CaptBrainFreeze » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:08 am

Wow, talk about taking any good news and running with it...we get 7k less UE filed last week and you'd think the sun gently kissed you awake while little damned blue birds, wings a fluttering, had flown in and pulled your sheets back off of you, while rabbits put your houseshoes on you....you know, a place where coffee is brewing in every room and your shower water smells of bacon.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Kommander » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:40 am

Ahhhh! Your going to cause it all to crash again!
Why must all the hoops be on fire?

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Horatio_Tyllis » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:49 am

CaptBrainFreeze wrote:you know, a place where coffee is brewing in every room and your shower water smells of bacon.
You've visited Canada?
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:53 am

Check out the Swiss Franc against the USD. It is down almost 5% this morning. Bear in mind a 1 % movement in currencies is considered a big move.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FXF" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This correlates with gold going down since they have both been safe havens as is the Yen. but it is down .04% against the USD.

I assume this is the Swiss central bank doing what they said they were going to do as well as the Europeans looking elsewhere. This may signal more cash going into equities and the "up day" remaining an "up day". We will see what the market does today.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by the_alias » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:56 am

raptor wrote:Check out the Swiss Franc against the USD. It is down almost 5% this morning. Bear in mind a 1 % movement in currencies is considered a big move.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FXF" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This correlates with gold going down since they have both been safe havens as is the Yen. but it is down .04% against the USD.
Speaking to an acquaintance who works at the SNB this is sorta what they wanted...

Exporters will be happy here.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Thu Aug 11, 2011 10:03 am

the_alias wrote:
raptor wrote:Check out the Swiss Franc against the USD. It is down almost 5% this morning. Bear in mind a 1 % movement in currencies is considered a big move.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FXF" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This correlates with gold going down since they have both been safe havens as is the Yen. but it is down .04% against the USD.
Speaking to an acquaintance who works at the SNB this is sorta what they wanted...

Exporters will be happy here.
I noticed a weird trade in the after hours market for FXF; the last sale price was $136 or so and the ask price was $205 which obviously was way out of the money. The $205 was for a large block of FXF. It seemed very weird. I assumed the Zurich gnomes were were playing around in that market.


Edited to add link:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... TopStories" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Last edited by raptor on Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:48 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by ruralranger » Thu Aug 11, 2011 10:24 am

yes & the figures don't reflect the people who unemployment ran out that still don't have jobs...manipulating numbers to fit seems to be what has went on,the fact of the matter being a lot of people have dropped off the radar screen i know that in one city alone here in tn. (Knoxville),i read that more people are applying for food stamps (cards) weekly...i know that a lot of real estate ( business's & homes ) are on the market for long periods,they are not selling and in growing numbers.even rentals stay vacant longer...crime is also on the rise,it seems that either drugs or desperation is the culprit. as we see in England, as well as many other countries around the globe, uncertainty ,desperation with no hope is driving people to do desperate acts...as for gold prices which there seem to be more & more WE BUY GOLD signs have emerged even in side of the road towns ,pawn shops ,etc... i feel that the bottom will drop out of that which will lead to another domino tilting effect with the people holding on to it (hey,you can't eat it ) so add more people to the calamity,chaos and disgruntled mass's ... i mean if you got 100,000 invested in gold & tshtf situation with no economy to invest in,what will they do ? starve...investor's are holding on to what they have and the rest are reluctantly investing out of desperation with little hope... invest 10.00 and get a return of 5.00 ??? whats that about ! when they are doing it with other peoples money,we add another variable to the mix... prepare for what this z squad has preached about (tshtf )... we are in for a long hard bumpy ride i'm sure. i even saw on cnn the correspondence between what is happening now & the beginning of the great depression ( 1927 or 29 ) is very similar to where we are at now , this even on cnn ! ?[to be fore warned is to be fore armed]

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by kcor_77 » Thu Aug 11, 2011 10:57 am

ruralranger wrote:yes & the figures don't reflect the people who unemployment ran out that still don't have jobs...manipulating numbers to fit seems to be what has went on,the fact of the matter being a lot of people have dropped off the radar screen i know that in one city alone here in tn. (Knoxville),i read that more people are applying for food stamps (cards) weekly...i know that a lot of real estate ( business's & homes ) are on the market for long periods,they are not selling and in growing numbers.even rentals stay vacant longer...crime is also on the rise,it seems that either drugs or desperation is the culprit. as we see in England, as well as many other countries around the globe, uncertainty ,desperation with no hope is driving people to do desperate acts...as for gold prices which there seem to be more & more WE BUY GOLD signs have emerged even in side of the road towns ,pawn shops ,etc... i feel that the bottom will drop out of that which will lead to another domino tilting effect with the people holding on to it (hey,you can't eat it ) so add more people to the calamity,chaos and disgruntled mass's ... i mean if you got 100,000 invested in gold & tshtf situation with no economy to invest in,what will they do ? starve...investor's are holding on to what they have and the rest are reluctantly investing out of desperation with little hope... invest 10.00 and get a return of 5.00 ??? whats that about ! when they are doing it with other peoples money,we add another variable to the mix... prepare for what this z squad has preached about (tshtf )... we are in for a long hard bumpy ride i'm sure. i even saw on cnn the correspondence between what is happening now & the beginning of the great depression ( 1927 or 29 ) is very similar to where we are at now , this even on cnn ! ?[to be fore warned is to be fore armed]

Do you have any links to an article or video?
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NoAm » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:58 pm

Question: I have a friend that is sinking all kinds of his money into the dinar.
He feels this is going to be his golden ticket! Any response?
About a month ago it was $600 for $1,000,000 dinar.
Enlighten me please & I have plenty of Reynolds Wrap, if necessary :wink:
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:35 pm

NoAmnesty wrote:Question: I have a friend that is sinking all kinds of his money into the dinar.
He feels this is going to be his golden ticket! Any response?
About a month ago it was $600 for $1,000,000 dinar.
Enlighten me please & I have plenty of Reynolds Wrap, if necessary :wink:
http://www.mint.com/blog/investing/iraqi-dinar-scam/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.iraqidinarscam.info/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.learningmarkets.com/the-iraqi-dinar-scam/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.moneyshow.com/trading/articl ... ency-Scam/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.iraqidinars.org/iraqi-dinar- ... nar-scams/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by razi » Thu Aug 11, 2011 3:13 pm

raptor wrote:I noticed a weird trade in the after hours market for FXF; the last sale price was $136 or so and the ask price was $205 which obviously was way out of the money. The $205 was for a large block of FXF. It seemed very weird. I assumed the Zurich gnomes were were playing around in that market.
I know this isn't the best example, but in one of the games I used to play involved a market (http://www.playteq.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;)- high prices in periods of instability usually meant someone out bought all of the cheaper goods. usually this means some large force was manipulating the market, so the $205 example may be priced that way to see if someone was dumb enough to buy it.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Soup » Thu Aug 11, 2011 3:20 pm

The Islamic banking system should make the moslem countries more resilient to these effects but there are so many twist and turns in these things. How much for instance are the saudi investments in the states affected? How are they affected by the (non-artificial) drop in oil? What is the impact of the unrest in the other MENA-countries?

Here In Sweden our debt is 42% of gdp and we and our banks are financially sound thanks to an aggressive tactic from the riksbank (Fed) and parliament to limit the lending on housing. (Even though our property market is overvalued).
But since Sweden is a very export dependent country we are affected by the economic health of our surroundings (mostly german and US economies). Investments in the swedish krona is nice for consumers but for the above reason could pose a problem for our large export sector. Most people in sweden are quite happy that we thanks to a loophole are not attached to the euro yet. But since all EU countries are connected to each others through our much contested internal taxation/subsidies system we have quite a lively interal debate on what to make of the PIIGS countries situation.
The interest was scheduled to go up but will probably stay on the current level until winter/spring.


I just wanted to give some local perspective from Sweden...

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NoAm » Thu Aug 11, 2011 3:49 pm

raptor wrote:
NoAmnesty wrote:Question: I have a friend that is sinking all kinds of his money into the dinar.
He feels this is going to be his golden ticket! Any response?
About a month ago it was $600 for $1,000,000 dinar.
Enlighten me please & I have plenty of Reynolds Wrap, if necessary :wink:
http://www.mint.com/blog/investing/iraqi-dinar-scam/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.iraqidinarscam.info/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.learningmarkets.com/the-iraqi-dinar-scam/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.moneyshow.com/trading/articl ... ency-Scam/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.iraqidinars.org/iraqi-dinar- ... nar-scams/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
That about sums it up Raptor.....................................Thank you! :wink:

Oh shite for the friend!
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Thu Aug 11, 2011 3:54 pm

NoAmnesty wrote: That about sums it up Raptor.....................................Thank you! :wink:

Oh shite for the friend!

Tell your friend not to feel bad. I had a professional friend (who is smart enough to know better) come to me and tell me about the deal of a life time. It was this scam. He pissed away $2,500.00 on it.

Greed is hard wired into the human brain. It is difficult to overcome the impulse to be greedy.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NoAm » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:07 pm

New bans on short selling in Belgium, France, Italy & Spain?
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Thu Aug 11, 2011 4:40 pm

A little more sensible market reaction. Not good news for us but at least the market seems to making a move that makes sense from an economic perspective.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... TopStories" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NEW YORK—A poorly received 30-year U.S. bond auction sent longer-dated Treasury prices plunging, as stocks soaring to session highs added to the selling pressure.

The Treasury Department's sale of $16 billion in 30-year bonds got a weak reception, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.08—the worst showing since February 2008. This measure of overall demand had been 2.67 on average over the last four auctions.

Given the intense rally in Treasurys since the start of April, the government managed to sell these bond at a yield of 3.750%—this lowest in recent history. But more importantly, the sale was hit with a record tail, meaning the government had to pay up much more than it had expected to get the bonds sold.

"The disappointing outcome for this auction is an indication that while investors are content with loading up on Treasury papers with short maturity ... their comfort level with longer-maturity debt is far more tenuous," said Millan Mulraine, senior U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities.

Direct bidders showed above-average interest, scooping up 19.5% of the sale, a bit more than the 12.7% average from the last four auctions. However, indirect buyers, which include foreign central banks, came in below average at 12.2%—a worrisome sign that investors abroad are concerned about the U.S.'s fiscal condition.

BTW I am not calling a bottom but I did buy a few small blue chip positions today for long term positions. YMMV


I could not resist them at the price. Time will tell if I got greedy or not. What can I say greed is hardwired into the brain.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Thu Aug 11, 2011 7:26 pm

I've got 10,000 ID in my wallet right now! I could easily buy lunch with that.
I could not resist them at the price. Time will tell if I got greedy or not. What can I say greed is hardwired into the brain.
So is fear. If I am going to get robbed, let it be the man with a gun. At least then I have a fighting chance.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:18 pm

Blacksmith wrote:
I could not resist them at the price. Time will tell if I got greedy or not. What can I say greed is hardwired into the brain.
So is fear. If I am going to get robbed, let it be the man with a gun. At least then I have a fighting chance.
Hey it is only money and besides the companies I bought have better credit ratings and balance sheets than the government that printed the dollars I used to buy the stock. :D

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:43 pm

Wow what a week!

TEOTWAWKI on Monday followed the weirdest roller coaster ride I have seen.

However, I noticed we are still here. i just went to lunch and they still took my money. :D

Obviously there are still market stresses and turmoil but I think what we just saw is similar what we will see when the Super Congress ("SUCS") proposes their plan at the end of the year.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by bluesquid » Fri Aug 12, 2011 2:52 pm

raptor wrote:Wow what a week!

TEOTWAWKI on Monday followed the weirdest roller coaster ride I have seen.

However, I noticed we are still here. i just went to lunch and they still took my money. :D

Obviously there are still market stresses and turmoil but I think what we just saw is similar what we will see when the Super Congress ("SUCS") proposes their plan at the end of the year.
More like death throes than a roller coaster.

i dont understand how someone can post about a poor 30 year t bill auction, and then say all is well?? No, im not trolling. Its a valid question.

When, not if, the euro dies, I have heard its less than a month to the dollar's demise. My opinion. Europe save Germany is insolvent. Bought some time banning shorts, which is soooo laissez faire.Or in other words, a sign of obvious manipulation.

We are still insolvent. The money flowing into this country will slow to a trickle. Japan cant, and china wont buy t bills.

"WE" dont really believe:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-1 ... index.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-ex ... _news_stmp

hmm? Why extend "circuit breakers to every stock? HFT anyone?
The Securities and Exchange Commission approved a massive expansion of safeguards aimed at preventing another "flash crash," allowing exchanges to implement a so-called "circuit-breaker" for every U.S. stock.


In case you havent seen John Stewart's (Of "The Daily Show") brother,NYSE Chief Operating Office Larry Leibowitz explain HFT on 60 mins:




From "Nathans Economic Edge" today
The S&P 500 produced a “Death Cross” yesterday which is when the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200dma. This is a very negative technical indicator and will provide strong overhead resistance especially with the 50dma down slopping so steeply:
Bill Gross saying that The fed will announce a form of QE3 in Jackson Hole later this month, Fannie and Freddie need 7 billion more, stimulis creating jobs at a cost of 2 mil per job?? If you dont see it yet, you may never until it smacks you in the face.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Fri Aug 12, 2011 3:00 pm

Did the Euro disappear this week? No

Did the USD suddenly not become accepted in the US? No

Did the world come to an end this week...yet? not so far.

I mean seriously get a grip on yourself. All I said was the trading week is over and TEOTWAWKI did not occur. I do not say things were wonderful.

Jeez...If you want to stay curled up in the fetal position worrying about it be my guest. However we are going to see more weeks like this, you need to keep your perspective.

Pardon me if I am not in a panic and biting my nails in angst.

BTW check your PMs.
Last edited by raptor on Fri Aug 12, 2011 3:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Horatio_Tyllis » Fri Aug 12, 2011 3:03 pm

raptor wrote:Jeez...If you want to stay curled up in the fetal position worrying about it be my guest. However we are going to see more weeks like this, you need to keep your perspective.
Yup. Useful advice. I like to lead prepping conversations with worst case, but I always bring it back into perspective in the end. The proverbial shit as not yet hit the fan, so just stay frosty, but don't panic.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by bluesquid » Fri Aug 12, 2011 3:04 pm

raptor wrote:Did the Euro disappear this week? No

Did the USD suddenly not become accepted in the US? No

Did the world come to an end this week...yet? not so far.

I mean seriously get a grip on yourself. All I said was the trading week is over and TEOTWAWKI did not occur. I do not say things were wonderful.

Jeez...If you want to stay curled up in the fetal position worrying about it be my guest. However we are going to see more weeks like this, you need to keep your perspective.

Pardon me if I am not in a panic and biting my nails in angst.

my my.

Not if but when

Id say that those that see reality the clearest, are in fact "a hold of themselves"

Im not in panic either. Im prepped
FEED YOUR WOLVES WISELY! "The best battle rifle ever made is the FAL bar none".

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