Canada, Argentina, Australia, Germany, UK, China, etc.

Topics in this category pertain to planning. Discussions include how to prepare yourself, your family and your community for catastrophes and what you plan to do when they hit you.

Moderator: ZS Global Moderators

tinaweha
Posts: 16
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 2:58 pm
Location: Redmond WA

Canada, Argentina, Australia, Germany, UK, China, etc.

Post by tinaweha » Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:30 pm

Question for all people who live outside the US:

What do you see when you look at the American dollar's decline, the sub-prime mess, the Rock bank in England, the price of gold, the global real estate markets, America's huge dollar deficits, etc.? I am wondering what people in your media are saying. I am wondering what your countrymen say. I am wondering what you are thinking.

I'm interested in hearing from people living in the states...especially if you think globally (not in a bumper-sticker sort of way).

I am also putting a question to ferFal (or anyone who went through an Argentine/Asian-type financial crisis): Tell me about the similarities and differences between what you went through---and what you see in the USA right now. I am remaining an optimistic pessimist, as always. For example, I go back and forth between recession-leading-to-hyperinflation or hyperinflation-leading-to-recession... hey, that's my version of optimism... Actually, my optimism is from living in the US...and still being alive after all the crazy things I've done in my life.

Anyone who ever thinks about what any fiat currency is worth, is welcome to jump right in.

Tina
PS To ferFal, I am sorry about what happened in Argentina. I hope you are young enough to remake your life. I went through a localized financial disaster (in the 70's) and I know a little bit about how your life changed. And, as for talking to our BsAs guide...she was happy to try to explain what happened during inflation, however, my husband interrupted her before I was able to ask her more about what it was like. I didn't have the nerve to ask anyone else because I didn't want to remind them of their sadness.
PPS To the rest of you, I know that this subject is not as much fun as AK's and bullets and how to kill a zombie.
Our forefathers made one mistake. What they should have fought for was representation without taxation. - Fletcher Knebel, 6/21/99

User avatar
thorian
* * * * *
Posts: 4544
Joined: Tue Oct 04, 2005 10:27 am
Location: Outside of Columbia MO
Contact:

Post by thorian » Thu Sep 20, 2007 2:54 pm

Well with the Canadian dollar and US dollar trading basically 1 for 1
and 2 US Dollars to 1 quid I am worried. our Economy keeps sliding right down the shitter and there is nothing I can do about it.
VOL FF 1 & 2, EMT-B, Hazmat Ops, Vehicle Extrication Technician, High angle rescue technician, and that is just the hobby...

User avatar
Vindex
* * * * *
Posts: 1838
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2004 12:21 pm
Location: Night Hawk Forest, South Porcupine

Post by Vindex » Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:24 pm

What do I think? Yee Haa! That's what I think.

Now that CDN is on par with USD, I've gone on an online shopping spree for American made goods (assemble yourself electronics kits and various publications). US made stuff is so much better than that Chinese crap, I've been waiting for this. If I can scrape enough together I'll take the kid to Disney world in Florida next spring.

Cymro
* * * * *
Posts: 3382
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:42 am
Location: Fayetteville Refugee currently bunkered in Wilmington, NC, USA
Contact:

Post by Cymro » Thu Sep 20, 2007 6:16 pm

A weak dollar leads to increased foreign investment in the US, which leads to a US economic resurgence and a stronger dollar.

These things run in cycles, and we're moving into a slow one. That's life, and God willing it'll blow over soon.
"Young men, beware of murder. It may lead to theft and, from there, to telling lies."
Alphonse Allais

Standing invite to all ZSers: If you're ever down Carolina way, the first round's on me.

User avatar
TheGunslinger
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 2988
Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2007 6:27 pm
Location: Australian Outback

Post by TheGunslinger » Thu Sep 20, 2007 6:17 pm

I also think - Fuck yeah!!!!

If/when the US dollar starts to head towards parity with Australian dollar - well, 1) I might actually be able to attend a Z-Con at sometime in the future and 2) I am buying up so much property in the US that I won't have to work here anymore.

I mean - I hope it doesn't go totally down the tubes for you guys, but there is no way to get ahead her in Australia buying property without some serious amounts of cash.
Bureaucracy destroys initiative. There is little that bureaucrats hate more than innovation, especially innovation that produces better results than the old routines. Improvements always make those at the top of the heap look inept. Who enjoys appearing inept? ~A Guide to Trial and Error in Government, Bene Gesserit Archive

User avatar
mantis
* * * * *
Posts: 3236
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2007 9:56 pm
Location: Brantford, Ontario

Post by mantis » Thu Sep 20, 2007 6:29 pm

TheGunslinger wrote:I also think - Fuck yeah!!!!

If/when the US dollar starts to head towards parity with Australian dollar - well, 1) I might actually be able to attend a Z-Con at sometime in the future and 2) I am buying up so much property in the US that I won't have to work here anymore.

I mean - I hope it doesn't go totally down the tubes for you guys, but there is no way to get ahead her in Australia buying property without some serious amounts of cash.
It must be getting pretty close. I always thought the Australian dollar was pretty close to the Canadian dollar. Twice today the Canadian dollar traded above the US greenback and it's expected to close above it by tomorrow.

Personally, it hasn't affected me all that much. Overall, the rising dollar has been a little hard on our economy because we export so much to the US. Our resource exports such as oil are going gangbusters and causing money to flood into the country and push the dollar even higher. Online shopping and buying through eBay is pretty nice with a high dollar but I don't do a lot of that.
Doc Torr wrote:"Those who live by the sword get shot by those who see them coming a hundred yards away."
roscoe wrote:.....and don't plan on being The Humongous - it ain't happening.

User avatar
Milkboot
* * * * *
Posts: 1080
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 11:38 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Post by Milkboot » Thu Sep 20, 2007 6:44 pm

Makes me want to pick my next job with a global company, maybe one that was first started outside the states so I can try and move up and make good neough money so if there was a need to have to move for the economy going down the drain i might be able to just request a transfer to another office :P Long shot i know, but its mainly just based on me wanting to get a job at a bigger company for more money in general :(

User avatar
Steev
* * *
Posts: 503
Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2005 5:27 pm
Location: Surrey, BC, Canada

Post by Steev » Thu Sep 20, 2007 8:34 pm

Everytime our dollar moves up I think my trip to hawaii this summer is all the sweeter...
-S9teev
"Theres no 9 in Steve"
"It's a silent 9"

SKS, 10/22, 870P, 1911, AR15, TT33

User avatar
TheGunslinger
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 2988
Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2007 6:27 pm
Location: Australian Outback

Post by TheGunslinger » Thu Sep 20, 2007 9:32 pm

Yeah, the Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar are usually pretty close - but I think the problems that are besetting the US economy are benefiting the Canadian economy vs. US economy much more than it is for us.

I think our dollar is trading at about 80ish US cents, which isn't bad - but it's not dropping as fast for us.

I don't really know why - I guess because we aren't so closely related to the US economy as the Canadians?

Any economists clarify it at all?
Bureaucracy destroys initiative. There is little that bureaucrats hate more than innovation, especially innovation that produces better results than the old routines. Improvements always make those at the top of the heap look inept. Who enjoys appearing inept? ~A Guide to Trial and Error in Government, Bene Gesserit Archive

User avatar
Milkboot
* * * * *
Posts: 1080
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 11:38 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Post by Milkboot » Fri Sep 21, 2007 2:59 am

TheGunslinger wrote:
Any economists clarify it at all?

If someone does do it, please make it short as possible, Co-worker of mine is taking another economics class this semester and I seriously think i will hurt someone if i have to listen to another rant :(

Cymro
* * * * *
Posts: 3382
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:42 am
Location: Fayetteville Refugee currently bunkered in Wilmington, NC, USA
Contact:

Post by Cymro » Fri Sep 21, 2007 7:10 am

TheGunslinger wrote:Yeah, the Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar are usually pretty close - but I think the problems that are besetting the US economy are benefiting the Canadian economy vs. US economy much more than it is for us.

I think our dollar is trading at about 80ish US cents, which isn't bad - but it's not dropping as fast for us.

I don't really know why - I guess because we aren't so closely related to the US economy as the Canadians?

Any economists clarify it at all?
Part of what's happening here is the Canadian dollar, which has been getting stronger for about 10 years now.
"Young men, beware of murder. It may lead to theft and, from there, to telling lies."
Alphonse Allais

Standing invite to all ZSers: If you're ever down Carolina way, the first round's on me.

User avatar
raptor
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 17060
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:18 pm
Location: Greater New Orleans Area

Post by raptor » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:40 am

Cymro wrote:
TheGunslinger wrote:Yeah, the Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar are usually pretty close - but I think the problems that are besetting the US economy are benefiting the Canadian economy vs. US economy much more than it is for us.

I think our dollar is trading at about 80ish US cents, which isn't bad - but it's not dropping as fast for us.

I don't really know why - I guess because we aren't so closely related to the US economy as the Canadians?

Any economists clarify it at all?
Part of what's happening here is the Canadian dollar, which has been getting stronger for about 10 years now.

I am not an economist but I am a CPA & CFP (along with other initials).

The current blip downward in the dollar value occurred immediately after the fed reduced the prime interest rate by 1/2%. What this means is taht multi-nationals keeping US $ especially in over night and short term investments are making less interest. So they sell their dollar investments and invest them in Europe, et.al. where the interest rate returns are better. The lowering in US dollar value prior to the reduction was due to the lowered discount rate to banks and an anticipated 1/4% reduction in
the Prime Rate.

The fed surprised everyone with the 1/2% reduction so the US stock market climbed. The cash markets responded inversely.

This coupled with fear over the sub-prime market has investors worried about holding US paper. This fear translates into a lower US dollar to say a the UK Pound or Euros. It is the free market at work investors seeking the best return at the lowest risk.

I would point out with regard to UK Pound and Euros that these are also fiat currencies like the US dollar and thus can and do suffer the same volitility as the US dollar.

This is not the EOTWAWKI. However, the US deficit, sub-prime lending problems, lack of US production of goods, reliance on foreign oil, etc. all do not help the US currency. I would point out that most of the industrialized world suffers form similar problems (albeit most do have the sub-prime issues). All major world currencies are just fiat money.

I would however say if you are in the US and you want an overseas vacation 2007 & 2008 will not be a good year to take one. Also if you want a BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, Jaguar, etc. you may want to look at a Cadillac or Lincoln instead.

User avatar
Makarov
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 2354
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2006 2:21 pm
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shaun of the Dead
The Walking Dead
Location: Trondheim, Norway
Contact:

Post by Makarov » Fri Sep 21, 2007 12:34 pm

We're following the US economy closely here in Norway, and the talking heads on the TV mentions US interest rates frequently. While Norway's economy is booming(because of the oil) there's talk about how a recess in US economy will lower the price and thus make us not so filthy rich. And the strong NOK(Norwegian kroner) makes it difficult for other export industries(paper, fish, aluminum, tech) to compete on the global market.

On the other hand, I'm happy as a clam about the NOK/US$ exchange rate. :D
Thomas

Der skal Kugle til en Thrønder

RIP hk33k

User avatar
Milkboot
* * * * *
Posts: 1080
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 11:38 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Post by Milkboot » Fri Sep 21, 2007 5:16 pm

Might explain the massive surge of orders we have gotten at work from Norway lately, Even if its like $50-75 US shipping they dont care, Either that or a bunch of rich friends all been talking to each other and ordering stuff from us. :P

I have a question about the sub-prime thing, Has it been effecting our dollar[US] before it became super public, or it just really didnt help the matter once the common joe knew what was going on?

User avatar
raptor
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 17060
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:18 pm
Location: Greater New Orleans Area

Post by raptor » Fri Sep 21, 2007 5:52 pm

Milkboot wrote: I have a question about the sub-prime thing, Has it been effecting our dollar[US] before it became super public, or it just really didnt help the matter once the common joe knew what was going on?
Yes to both. It had been affecting the dollar but once it became widely known , the impact became disproportionate to its real impact. The Sub-Prime lending market is not that big. The real problem was the slow down in the real estate market which actually caused the sub-prime market to get worse. Prior to this you could sell most homes and repay the sub-prime loan with the proceeds to solve the problem.

If you want to track sub-prime issues look at house repossession/foreclosures in your area. Not all of those are sub-prime issues, but an increase indicates more sub prime pressure.

User avatar
Makarov
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 2354
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2006 2:21 pm
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shaun of the Dead
The Walking Dead
Location: Trondheim, Norway
Contact:

Post by Makarov » Fri Sep 21, 2007 6:01 pm

Milkboot wrote:Might explain the massive surge of orders we have gotten at work from Norway lately, Even if its like $50-75 US shipping they dont care, Either that or a bunch of rich friends all been talking to each other and ordering stuff from us. :P
What kind of business is that?
Norway is expensive to live in, a Surefire G2 will cost me $63 here, while you can find one for approx half in the US. So $11 shipping still saves me $20.

Calculate that over to a more expensive item, and even $75 shipping and Norwegian tax won't make it uninteresting.
Another thing is that Norway is a small country, and word gets around in the different fields. So if someone gives your company two thumbs up for price and reliability then all the others will use you, because "everyone" is afraid of being had on internet trade.
Thomas

Der skal Kugle til en Thrønder

RIP hk33k

User avatar
misanthropist
* * * * *
Posts: 2220
Joined: Sat Mar 26, 2005 1:10 pm
Location: Vancouver, Western Canada, thank god

Post by misanthropist » Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:00 pm

We've been waiting for a US dollar correction for a long time up here.

We've also been experiencing a slow Canadian dollar correction for the last decade. Our country runs at a profit and our federal debt shrinks by billions of dollars every year. You country runs at a huge loss and your debt is staggering. You run a trade deficit with the world that ensures your money is constantly leaving the country, and right or wrong, you are at war in a foreign country which is sucking a lot of money.

I don't see this as the beginning of a big collapse but I am not surprised the dollar has taken such a beating. I am a bit surprised it took this long to happen.
DocGKR wrote:.45 ACP is much easier to stop with armor than the smaller, faster 9 mm. On the other hand, the larger mass of .45 ACP allows it to do much better against windshields than 9 mm. What is optimal all depends on your likely engagement scenarios.

User avatar
Milkboot
* * * * *
Posts: 1080
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 11:38 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Post by Milkboot » Sat Sep 22, 2007 1:11 am

:Makarov


Well its been a lot of car audio/video stuff, I work for a local computer shop in Sales,Head tech, Purchasing, marketing, RMA's,Accounting you know itI do it heh. We feel really bad sometimes when FedEX or DHL says it will cost so much because we dont belive the price our shipping computer says, but the are usually more then happy to pay

User avatar
Makarov
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 2354
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2006 2:21 pm
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shaun of the Dead
The Walking Dead
Location: Trondheim, Norway
Contact:

Post by Makarov » Sat Sep 22, 2007 2:39 am

@Milkboot:
No wonder. Stuff like that is expensive in Norway, and there's a lot of people who's into custom car sound. People got enough $ between their hands to afford an expensive stereo, but if they can save $$ on buying online they can buy even more stuff on the same budget. (My guess is that they save between 10 and 30% on Norwegian prices after shipping and tax by buying from you)

Another thing, the shipping addresses ain't by any chance "Svalbard, Norway"? Svalbard is exempt Norwegian import tax.
Thomas

Der skal Kugle til en Thrønder

RIP hk33k

User avatar
Milkboot
* * * * *
Posts: 1080
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 11:38 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Post by Milkboot » Sat Sep 22, 2007 2:48 am

I would have to check, Do you have any suggestions I could give some guys ordering from us that do live in Norway? Im sure i could get a lil more business that way if I help them out a lil more.

User avatar
DestroyTheStairs
* *
Posts: 138
Joined: Fri May 25, 2007 9:20 pm
Location: santa barbara, CA

Post by DestroyTheStairs » Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:09 am

Cymro wrote:A weak dollar leads to increased foreign investment in the US, which leads to a US economic resurgence and a stronger dollar.

These things run in cycles, and we're moving into a slow one. That's life, and God willing it'll blow over soon.
Exactly. Usually when a conservative party is in power the dollar is intentionally weakened for the above mentioned reasons. If a more liberal party takes over next year the dollar will probably be strengthened. Thats why one party is "for business" and the other is for "the people".

Pendulum Theory, Poly-Sci 101.

Also, did anyone else notice that almost on the same day the Euro became legal tender the dollar was devalued? I thought that was pretty funny, trying to steal their business on their first day on the job!

User avatar
Makarov
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 2354
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2006 2:21 pm
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shaun of the Dead
The Walking Dead
Location: Trondheim, Norway
Contact:

Post by Makarov » Sat Sep 22, 2007 10:34 am

Milkboot wrote:I would have to check, Do you have any suggestions I could give some guys ordering from us that do live in Norway? Im sure i could get a lil more business that way if I help them out a lil more.
PM me a link to you're firm and I'll check it out.
Thomas

Der skal Kugle til en Thrønder

RIP hk33k

User avatar
sheddi
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 3470
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2007 6:33 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: 28 Days Later
Shaun of the Dead
Location: Hampshire, England

Re: Canada, Argentina, Australia, Germany, UK, China, etc.

Post by sheddi » Sat Sep 22, 2007 3:14 pm

tinaweha wrote:What do you see when you look at the American dollar's decline, the sub-prime mess, the Rock bank in England, the price of gold, the global real estate markets, America's huge dollar deficits, etc.? I am wondering what people in your media are saying. I am wondering what your countrymen say. I am wondering what you are thinking.
From a UK perspective, the whole Northern Rock thing is a good example of hysteria. At the time that savers (as to who, more later) were withdrawing their money, the bank was probably the safest bank in the UK as both the Bank of England and the UK Gov't had publicly pledged their full support. There was never any reason to think that the bank was going to run out of money or that its liabilities exceeded its assets; in fact there were public statements from independent bodies to the contrary.

Watching the news coverage, it was educational to note that 90%+ of the savers waiting in line to make withdrawals were grey-haired. I'm not suggesting that this made them stupid or ignorant; I'd suggest that they were however more likely to be dependent on savings for their income, and to have had The Great Depression drummed into them at school.

IMO the biggest threat visible to the UK economy at the moment is domestic, not international. The recent consumer-led economic growth has largely been funded by property price inflation, to the extent that the average UK home now sells for ~US$400k. Since the average income is ~$50k, it's widely believed that some sort of house price correction is overdue. Add in the recent hike in mortgage interest rates and you can see where this is expected to lead ...
Be Pure!
Be Vigilant!
Behave!


Member
ZSC:010 - UK Chapter
My EDC / GHB (needs updating)
Foundation licence holder - Mike-Six-mumble-mumble-mumble.

User avatar
OhioMe
* * * * *
Posts: 1431
Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 12:41 am
Location: Western Pennsylvania

Post by OhioMe » Sun Sep 23, 2007 9:07 am

The current weak dollar and US economic situation is not extremely dire and can be lived with.

However, in 6 to 9 months when we are at war w/ Iran, Israel retaliates from whatever is done to them, oil goes to $180 US a barrel, and a bunch of terrorist a-holes blow themselves up in malls and movie theatres packed with kids effectively halting the US domestic consumer economy...THEN get ready for an extended 1930s style depression.

Don't even get me started on the social (especially urban) upheaval which will occur.

Post Reply

Return to “Contingency Planning & Preparation”