The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

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The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by teotwaki » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:50 pm

Because the window of opportunity is probably shrinking -

One of the biggest and most hyped bits of fear mongering about EMP is the difficulty of replacing the giant power transformers used in the electrical grid. "The typical manufacturing lead times for these transformers are 12 months or more." is usually quoted from articles on EMP effects http://energyskeptic.com/2013/emp-effec ... nsformers/

Some things are coming to light that ought to dismay NorK and other bad guys

The risk to big transformers may be lower than was thought

A new Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) report finds that a limited number of bulk-power transformers would be at potential risk of thermal damage due to a single high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) attack, but that additional work is needed to fully investigate the impact to the entire bulk-power system. EPRI is in the middle of a three-year study on the impacts on the bulk power system of an electromagnetic pulse (EMP).

https://www.tdworld.com/distribution/ep ... etic-pulse

Devon Streit, deputy assistant secretary of Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration in the Department of Energy, said her agency is close to releasing an unclassified document intended to give all stakeholders a common understanding of EMP and its potential impacts to help facilitate future discussion.

As a result of research, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, has established standards for utilities to protect against GMD, said FERC Commissioner Cheryl LaFleur.

“In the case of EMP we have not up till now felt that we know precisely what the companies should be directed to do to their systems,” she said. That’s why EPRI’s research is critical. It will help in deciding how to direct utilities making changes to the grid."

https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files ... 2016_0.pdf
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by teotwaki » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:40 pm

The other big change is the relentless march of technology.

The grid is composed of generation, bulk transmission and distribution.
Image

The medium voltage distribution network to primary customer is undergoing a quiet revolution from bulky wirewound transformers to Solid State Transformers (SSTs) that offer many advantages including rapid replacement, smaller size and smart grid control hooks.

https://freedm.wordpress.ncsu.edu/sst/

Image

SST technology can step up or step down AC voltage levels just like that of the traditional transformer but it also offers several significant advantages. These include:

allow two way power flow (good for routing renewable DC energy sources such as home solar arrays, etc.)
input or output AC or DC power
actively change power characteristics such as voltage and frequency levels
improve power quality (reactive power compensation and harmonic filtering)
provide efficient routing of electricity based on communication between utility provider, end user site and other transformers in the network
greatly reduce the physical size and weight of individual transformer packages with equivalent power ratings

When SSTs are implemented, they will radically change the way utility power is distributed. They will also become integral components in the future Smart Grid - enabling it to direct power from any source to any destination by the most efficient route possible.


A smart grid can implement predictive load shedding with either EMP or geomagnetic storm impulses and switch off SSTs and electrical paths in order to limit the damage. SSTs will also be far easier to replace than traditional wirewound transformers and SSTs can be designed to resist EMP direct impacts in the same manner as hardened military equipment .

https://www.westmonroepartners.com/Insi ... ransformer

https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewa ... e-flexible
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by flybynight » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:40 pm

You mean I won't have to get on a horse and ride to your rescue in the riverbed where your BOV was disabled by the EMP blast? I can just call triple A to come get you? That's a relief.
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by RonnyRonin » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:47 pm

While I have no real grasp on the actual adoption rates, I have wondered at what point the trend toward less dense and less centralized power generation (wind farms and solar mostly) will make a true grid-down scenario practically impossible.
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by raptor » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:53 pm

Unless you want to live like people do in NK or some other 3rd world country a truly girdles system is quite a long time away.

Until you can buy a fully functional Mr Fusion machine, a power grid with power plants is going to be necessary.

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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by teotwaki » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:03 am

flybynight wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:40 pm
You mean I won't have to get on a horse and ride to your rescue in the riverbed where your BOV was disabled by the EMP blast? I can just call triple A to come get you? That's a relief.
First you'd have to crawl out of your tornado shelter after eating horse stew and then start your walk back here with your dead cell phone in your pack.....
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by teotwaki » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:07 am

RonnyRonin wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:47 pm
While I have no real grasp on the actual adoption rates, I have wondered at what point the trend toward less dense and less centralized power generation (wind farms and solar mostly) will make a true grid-down scenario practically impossible.
Supposedly Siemens and GE have started building pre-production models of the medium voltage types. The 100-200 kV types will have to wait for capable semiconductors, Even then, if the risk of thermal damage due to EMP is lower we are less likely to lose the entire grid which will disappoint people who are hoping for this sort of thing to occur only in California,,, :v:
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by flybynight » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:16 am

teotwaki wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:03 am
flybynight wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:40 pm
You mean I won't have to get on a horse and ride to your rescue in the riverbed where your BOV was disabled by the EMP blast? I can just call triple A to come get you? That's a relief.
First you'd have to crawl out of your tornado shelter after eating horse stew and then start your walk back here with your dead cell phone in your pack.....
Well if there's horse stew involved, you're on your own. Just ask those nice gang bangerish types to call triple A for ya.

ETA We don't call them tornado shelters anymore because that assess blame on a non malevolent event. The new name is Vortex abatement protective enclosure or VAPE for short. I multi use my VAPE as a shop so I actually enjoy my horse stew in a VAPE shop :awesome:
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by teotwaki » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:03 pm

flybynight wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:16 am
The new name is Vortex abatement protective enclosure or VAPE for short. I multi use my VAPE as a shop so I actually enjoy my horse stew in a VAPE shop :awesome:
VAPE! Good one!
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by grumpyviking » Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:16 am

if the UK ever had an EMP and it blew all the transformers and connectors in the power grid, that would be it as far as power is concerned. these things are not kept "on the shelf" anymore, okay they might have 1 or 2 in store but not enough to replace them all, also they are not manufactured here and have to be ordered from abroad, probably China-most things seem to be made there these days, this takes several months to be ordered, made and shipped. if they had to replace ALL of them it would take 2 YEARS to carry out this work, that's if they even had enough engineers to do the work, do you think the British people are going to sit meekly, in the dark, for 2 YEARS?? NO, me neither, societal collapse here we come!!!
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by flybynight » Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:33 am

grumpyviking wrote:
Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:16 am
if the UK ever had an EMP and it blew all the transformers and connectors in the power grid, that would be it as far as power is concerned. these things are not kept "on the shelf" anymore, okay they might have 1 or 2 in store but not enough to replace them all, also they are not manufactured here and have to be ordered from abroad, probably China-most things seem to be made there these days, this takes several months to be ordered, made and shipped. if they had to replace ALL of them it would take 2 YEARS to carry out this work, that's if they even had enough engineers to do the work, do you think the British people are going to sit meekly, in the dark, for 2 YEARS?? NO, me neither, societal collapse here we come!!!
I think thays pretty much the case with most countries. China is supplying the world with critical infrastructural parts. So worst case scenario. What if China is also attacked with an EMP?
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by grumpyviking » Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:50 am

then no spare parts for the power grid or anything else for that matter. permanent darkness.
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by Sun Yeti » Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:24 am

raptor wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:53 pm
Unless you want to live like people do in NK or some other 3rd world country a truly girdles system is quite a long time away.

Until you can buy a fully functional Mr Fusion machine, a power grid with power plants is going to be necessary.
I think you're forgetting something: batteries Which are getting cheaper and better at a blistering rate.
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by raptor » Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:45 am

Sun Yeti wrote:
Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:24 am
raptor wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:53 pm
Unless you want to live like people do in NK or some other 3rd world country a truly girdles system is quite a long time away.

Until you can buy a fully functional Mr Fusion machine, a power grid with power plants is going to be necessary.
I think you're forgetting something: batteries Which are getting cheaper and better at a blistering rate.
Batteries are a storage media, not a generation method. Without power generation batteries run flat. For power especially for commercial and industrial activity you need a means to transport the generated power (regardless of the how the power is generated) to the users.

Power requires a source and a means of transmitting the power to the user. The fact that the power is stored in a battery for later use does not alter that fact.

When a battery bank that is both self contained, indefinately capable of self recharging while supplying 4GW of power and is cheaper than a grid tied power system that would be a Mr Fusion Machine(ala Back To The Future).

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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by grumpyviking » Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:45 am

which run out over a short space of time.
most of which have been on a shelf wearing out long before we buy them.
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by absinthe beginner » Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:31 pm

Would cell phone zombies still lurch around staring at their dead screens out of force of habit after an EMP attack? Would they actually evolve to look up and watch where they're going?

http://knuckledraggin.com/2018/11/yup-on-the-phone/

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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by grumpyviking » Mon Dec 03, 2018 3:29 am

yes to the first question no to the second.
addiction is hard to break for some.
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by CrossCut » Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:18 am

flybynight wrote:
Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:33 am
grumpyviking wrote:
Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:16 am
if the UK ever had an EMP and it blew all the transformers and connectors in the power grid, that would be it as far as power is concerned. these things are not kept "on the shelf" anymore, okay they might have 1 or 2 in store but not enough to replace them all, also they are not manufactured here and have to be ordered from abroad, probably China-most things seem to be made there these days, this takes several months to be ordered, made and shipped. if they had to replace ALL of them it would take 2 YEARS to carry out this work, that's if they even had enough engineers to do the work, do you think the British people are going to sit meekly, in the dark, for 2 YEARS?? NO, me neither, societal collapse here we come!!!
I think thays pretty much the case with most countries. China is supplying the world with critical infrastructural parts. So worst case scenario. What if China is also attacked with an EMP?
The latest report from just a few days ago mentioned most of the high voltage transformers for the US grid are custom made out of South Korea and Germany, with lead times of 18 months. Even scarier considering South Korea would be a primary target for an EMP by the North.

That said, always a little skeptical of think tank studies. How much is accurate/reasonable, and how much might be about getting funding for more studies or to influence congressional spending?

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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by grumpyviking » Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:14 am

18months "lead times", do you mean to order, make and ship? if so on top of that you've got the time it takes to actually fit them and remove the defective ones. if it takes that long to get any for the UK grid +2 years to replace the entire British grid we could be looking at 3-4 years, most of the British population would be dead by then, the ones that cant live without electricity will be.
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by raptor » Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:15 am

One thing to remember, is that there's still a supply of used,surplus as well as rebuilt Transformers of many many sizes in the US. That's not to say there's enough inventory to replace every Transformer in the US. However there's an entire industry geared towards rebuilding Transformers in the US. However, they are reusable; they're not throw away items.

If you Google the term rebuilt transformers you will ind several companies that sell these items.

I ran across this industry when an industrial customer needed to upgrade its transformer for a new production line. The utility suggested we buy a used one that met spec and provided a list of the remanufacturers.

In a case like such n EMP event I susecpt this rebuild business would ramp up quickly and be given priority electrical capacity.

Now that still leaves the site install delays but should provide some inventory.

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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by grumpyviking » Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:19 am

if an EMP blew the power I doubt there is anywhere to get power from nor would it be transferable to anywhere if the power grid is down, whether a place is given priority or not.
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by teotwaki » Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:47 pm

grumpyviking wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:19 am
if an EMP blew the power I doubt there is anywhere to get power from nor would it be transferable to anywhere if the power grid is down, whether a place is given priority or not.
The complexity of the electrical grids is also their saving grace. Areas can be isolated and bypassed or operated independently to power communities local to a source.

Image

The US has over 16,000 plants that independently generate a megawatt or more so it would take an awful lot of EMP strikes to take them all down.

A map from 2015
Image

The focus on the big transformers is because they provide the ability to distribute electricity from one region to another and EMPs would break up that distribution network. As the distribution is patched back together you can bet our homes would be last on the list of priorities as would rural areas but government centers and manufacturing plants would receive as much electricity as possible even if transformers and other components were stripped from other regions.

https://www.sparklibrary.com/the-u-s-el ... n-15-maps/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continent ... ssion_grid
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by grumpyviking » Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:53 am

I don't think this would apply to the UK power grid, I think in the US you have 3 power grids whereas we have only the one, that goes down then that's it, darkness reigns.
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Re: The North Koreans had better hurry and EMP us

Post by teotwaki » Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:42 pm

grumpyviking wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:53 am
I don't think this would apply to the UK power grid, I think in the US you have 3 power grids whereas we have only the one, that goes down then that's it, darkness reigns.
I am happy to share with you the UK grid looks pretty diverse! http://www.energynetworks.org/info/faqs ... n-map.html

Image
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