A quick question about The Time

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thanhhuyen865
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A quick question about The Time

Post by thanhhuyen865 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:14 am

so watching the news you see a lot of people in weather disasters who stay behind in their homes, some for better; some for worse. In the rolling blackout scenarios or the King riots as examples its apparent that craziness and insanity is afoot yet people still stay put. There are myriad examples of people staying behind when they should have B'd the F O. I liken it to the frog-in-boiling-water scenario when things get worse and worse but people sort of weather it more and more until bam! Catastrophy.

When/where do you draw the line? What are the absolute signs that bugging out is the last and only answer? At what point do you decide enough S has been ground through the F and its time to abandon?

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JeeperCreeper
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Re: A quick question about The Time

Post by JeeperCreeper » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:37 am

I have thought about this question "Do I stay or do I go now...."

I think I first started really dwelling on it from World War Z when Brad Pitt says something to the family in the apartment to the effect of "I've been in a lot of bad places and to live you need to keep moving"

In general, I'm a fan of bugging in. However, case-by-case scenario dictates that may not always be the case as you mentioned.

I think a way to break down the decision making process into steps may look something like this (as I don't think there is a solid answer)

Start with:
-Nature of the threat?
-Proximity of the threat?
-Duration of the threat?
-Size of the threat?

Focus on:
-sufficient resources to stay?
-viable place to go if leave?
-realistic challenges to both options?

Lastly decide:
-Best case scenario if stay?
-Best case scenario if leave?
-Worst case scenario if stay?
-Worst case scenario if leave?


I dunno, I guess that would be my starting point
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flybynight
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Re: A quick question about The Time

Post by flybynight » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:51 am

thanhhuyen865 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:14 am
so watching the news you see a lot of people in weather disasters who stay behind in their homes, some for better; some for worse. In the rolling blackout scenarios or the King riots as examples its apparent that craziness and insanity is afoot yet people still stay put. There are myriad examples of people staying behind when they should have B'd the F O. I liken it to the frog-in-boiling-water scenario when things get worse and worse but people sort of weather it more and more until bam! Catastrophy.

When/where do you draw the line? What are the absolute signs that bugging out is the last and only answer? At what point do you decide enough S has been ground through the F and its time to abandon?
It depends on the event. The two examples you gave would not constitute a bug out scenario in my opinion. I lived in L.A. during the riots and never thought of bugging out. Most of the craziness was centered on retail businesses and did not occur much in the residential areas. I've been in blackouts (warm weather and week long ice storm black outs) Home was the safest place to be .
Conversely , fire, flood and major storm with the authorities telling you to get the hell outa Dodge ... better get the hell out of Dodge , and you better have a plan and a pre arranged location to get to cause when you walk out that front door.You are a refugee
Read this viewtopic.php?f=89&t=53451 on plans , events and when to say Out of here
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raptor
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Re: A quick question about The Time

Post by raptor » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:25 pm

JeeperCreeper wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:37 am
I have thought about this question "Do I stay or do I go now...."

I think I first started really dwelling on it from World War Z when Brad Pitt says something to the family in the apartment to the effect of "I've been in a lot of bad places and to live you need to keep moving"

In general, I'm a fan of bugging in. However, case-by-case scenario dictates that may not always be the case as you mentioned.

I think a way to break down the decision making process into steps may look something like this (as I don't think there is a solid answer)

Start with:
-Nature of the threat?
-Proximity of the threat?
-Duration of the threat?
-Size of the threat?

Focus on:
-sufficient resources to stay?
-viable place to go if leave?
-realistic challenges to both options?

Lastly decide:
-Best case scenario if stay?
-Best case scenario if leave?
-Worst case scenario if stay?
-Worst case scenario if leave?


I dunno, I guess that would be my starting point

The above is quoted as excellent advice.

I do have set triggers for some risks for myself.
For instance a category 3+ hurricane expected to make landfall within a 30 NM radius of me is a signal to me to prepare to leave.
A category 4 or 5 hurricane within a 50 NM radius of me is also a signal to leave.

The when is always the tricky part. The short smart ass answer is the sooner the better.
The reality is that sometimes you cannot just drop things for days just because you face a potential risk. I suggest that the timing of a departure should also be based upon the probability of it success and the risks you face leaving. Evacuating by car is dangerous. If the car breaks down or tied up in traffic it could get ugly quick.

In the above scenario I want to make sure I am gone and in my BOL 24 hours before the expected landfall. I always work backwards from there to see when I have to leaved to achieve that.

BTW always have a Plan B evac point relatively safe from the risk if you do decide to bug in.

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