The Coming Civil War

Topics in this category pertain to planning. Discussions include how to prepare yourself, your family and your community for catastrophes and what you plan to do when they hit you.

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MPMalloy
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by MPMalloy » Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:33 am

Could this possibly be a Moral Panic?

If so, I bought into it. See my above post about Rep. Waters. She advocated confrontation, but never said to commit violence.

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by flybynight » Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:42 am

MPMalloy wrote:Could this possibly be a Moral Panic?

If so, I bought into it. See my above post about Rep. Waters. She advocated confrontation, but never said to commit violence.
maybe, or the deep breath before the plunge
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by Stercutus » Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:53 am

Lets take it to the next level.

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2018/6/24/112248/490

Again, what could go wrong?
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by woodsghost » Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:52 pm

flybynight wrote:
MPMalloy wrote:Could this possibly be a Moral Panic?

If so, I bought into it. See my above post about Rep. Waters. She advocated confrontation, but never said to commit violence.
maybe, or the deep breath before the plunge
I think things could break either way. I know in the past when we have faced these issues the most anxious parties chose to stick with the system rather than burn it down. We may see the current anxious parties choose the same path.

I also see people calling for a more measured response. Time will tell if their voices prevail. But we don't see a monolithic block embracing mob violence or mob action yet, even if we are seeing pockets embrace the idea.

Maybe we will see more people get out and vote for moderates in the primaries? :ooh:
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by absinthe beginner » Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:28 pm

I wonder how much of this "civil war" talk is being fanned by parties who are anything but disinterested when it comes to fomenting societal tensions and unrest in America.

https://www.rt.com/usa/430957-america-n ... war-trump/

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by woodsghost » Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:48 pm

I would like to see us stop posting links to specific stories. All the linked stories, as I see, point to the Left being the primary culprit here. I think that is how a lot of people feel, and maybe there is truth in that. But there is also a president who has been...bellecose...and there are people in our lives on the other side of the aisle who have said rather ugly things and it has left us all hurt, stunned, and wanting to react.

The purpose here is not point out who might be to blame. It is not to fan the flames of fear and point out the calls to arms or rehash grievances. The point is to prepare. And if things do go south, we will want to all live together after. My family has a lot of anger still from the 1861 civil war. The point though is that we all have a common purpose. To prepare for a disaster and to prepare for reconciliation if a disaster occures.

I'm as guilty as any. But I believe we need to make a choice. We need to choose not to blame or fan the flames of fear. We all see the reality. We cannot escape it. But disasters can be averted by our choices.

I'm going to try and be more chilled out. I hope we choose not to post articles which asign blame or point at one side being worse than the other.

Just where I'm at right now.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by absinthe beginner » Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:59 pm

I would like to see us stop posting links to specific stories. All the linked stories, as I see, point to the Left being the primary culprit here. I think that is how a lot of people feel, and maybe there is truth in that. But there is also a president who has been...bellecose...and there are people in our lives on the other side of the aisle who have said rather ugly things and it has left us all hurt, stunned, and wanting to react.
I respectfully disagree. There are plenty of villains all along the ideological spectrum, but the linked stories are essential to illustrating the relevant points. Suffice to say, every action has a reaction, and therein lies the issue. None of this is happening in a vacuum. Economic malaise also plays a central role, as a booming stock market should not be confused with a healthy, productive economy. The posters thus far have generally steered clear of finger pointing and political polemics, and instead have factually pointed out trends that if left unchecked, could set off an action-reaction cycle, feeding off rage and estranged points of view, that takes us down a road no sane person wants to go.

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by woodsghost » Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:32 pm

absinthe beginner wrote:
I would like to see us stop posting links to specific stories. All the linked stories, as I see, point to the Left being the primary culprit here. I think that is how a lot of people feel, and maybe there is truth in that. But there is also a president who has been...bellecose...and there are people in our lives on the other side of the aisle who have said rather ugly things and it has left us all hurt, stunned, and wanting to react.
I respectfully disagree. There are plenty of villains all along the ideological spectrum, but the linked stories are essential to illustrating the relevant points. Suffice to say, every action has a reaction, and therein lies the issue. None of this is happening in a vacuum. Economic malaise also plays a central role, as a booming stock market should not be confused with a healthy, productive economy. The posters thus far have generally steered clear of finger pointing and political polemics, and instead have factually pointed out trends that if left unchecked, could set off an action-reaction cycle, feeding off rage and estranged points of view, that takes us down a road no sane person wants to go.
You may be right. I'd be interested in what others say too, either publicly or by PM. I may be the one off base. I have more thoughts, but I want to stop and listen first.

And to be clear AB, I'm not pointing only at you. I keep alluding to all sorts of "good guy/bad guy" stuff because I'm pretty pissed. And a little aggressive. I'm reminding myself as much as anyone else here to be civil and moderate.
*Remember: I'm just a guy on the internet :)
*Don't go to stupid places with stupid people & do stupid things.
*Be courteous. Look normal. Be in bed by 10'clock.

“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” -Bilbo Baggins.

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by 00dlez » Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:43 pm

The recent Maxine Waters event, to me, just underscores my original point.

Image

She's speaking to a "crowd" that would graciously be considered as dozens of people, only half or less of whom even seem to be responding positively to what she is saying anyway (call it violence or confrontation, semantics). It's getting intense news coverage for now, but that speaks to the overall point - it's so isolated and "out there" that it goes to show how much of a lack of a movement there is. Now, when someone makes similar remarks that are then echoed and praised by numerous people in places of power (hint: facebook likes and retweets don't count) and result in actual violent acts over the course of time and location... then I might start paying more attention.

The media (all media - social, cable news, talk radio) has so little to cover on any given day they sit panels of people down to discuss a 30 second sound bite for days, regurgitating the same talking points ad nauseam until the next dick pill commercial comes on.

Again, even if you split the country along political lines, it's only the super-minority fringe (both sides) are making a majority of the noise and IF something happened to drive them to violent conflicts against one another, the VAST majority of the country would look to law enforcement and the government to shut it down. I don't see Hundreds of millions of rational - if disagreeing - Americans letting fringe social/political groups violently clash in the streets over the "outrage du jour". They have families, jobs, and lives to get back to.
Batman has a pretty good EDC. - Purple_Mutant

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by 00dlez » Tue Jun 26, 2018 4:09 pm

woodsghost wrote:I would like to see us stop posting links to specific stories. All the linked stories, as I see, point to the Left being the primary culprit here.
That's because they are, in the eyes of general media, recently. I don't attribute it to any aspect of ideology, rather, the fact that they are the ones in opposition to the current authority. When Obama was still in office it was all Tea Party this and threats against immigrants that. POTUS (whomever it is) makes an opinion known and the loudest, most outrageous opposition to that opinion gets media coverage, because it gets clicks and views. "POTUS says X. Majority of America Agrees." isn't going to drive a lot of traffic.
Batman has a pretty good EDC. - Purple_Mutant

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by woodsghost » Tue Jun 26, 2018 5:25 pm

00dlez wrote:
woodsghost wrote:I would like to see us stop posting links to specific stories. All the linked stories, as I see, point to the Left being the primary culprit here.
That's because they are, in the eyes of general media, recently. I don't attribute it to any aspect of ideology, rather, the fact that they are the ones in opposition to the current authority. When Obama was still in office it was all Tea Party this and threats against immigrants that. POTUS (whomever it is) makes an opinion known and the loudest, most outrageous opposition to that opinion gets media coverage, because it gets clicks and views. "POTUS says X. Majority of America Agrees." isn't going to drive a lot of traffic.
I'm right with you on that. Human misery is ripe for exploitation by those who need clicks. I think we need to consider what is helpful on ZS. What helps illistrate a point. If the point needs illistration.

If we all know the potential danger of incivility, why post articles highlighting people's incivility? It just creates bad blood. But articles we can learn from are important. Those build the community.
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*Don't go to stupid places with stupid people & do stupid things.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by Stercutus » Tue Jun 26, 2018 5:44 pm

I tend to agree. My point was more to show those that disagree in the premise of the thread that such things are happening.
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by absinthe beginner » Tue Jun 26, 2018 7:25 pm

And to be clear AB, I'm not pointing only at you. I keep alluding to all sorts of "good guy/bad guy" stuff because I'm pretty pissed. And a little aggressive. I'm reminding myself as much as anyone else here to be civil and moderate.
Pink Floyd, "Us and Them."

Us and them
And after all we're only ordinary men
Me and you
God only knows
It's not what we would choose to do
Forward he cried from the rear
And the front rank died
And the general sat
And the lines on the map
Moved from side to side
Black and blue
And who knows which is which and who is who
Up and down
And in the end it's only round 'n round
Haven't you heard it's a battle of words
The poster bearer cried
Listen son, said the man with the gun
There's room for you inside

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDbeqj-1XOo

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by JeeperCreeper » Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:00 pm

I really want to piggy back off of JayceSlayn and RonnyRonin's posts from the last page. I didn't want to repost their quotes as they were full of info. I very much agree with their points.

I don't really see a full-fledged civil war in the traditional sense. I see more political uprisings and clashes between parties. Like MPMalloy said, I think it's a moral panic. I think that will cause riots and local protest/counter-protest situations.

In my mind, I envision LA Riots of the 90's and things that occured in Charlottsville with the car and tiki torches.

Our lives in America are generally cushy and for a full-on war, we have to come to terms with death and destruction. Modern America won't be able to handle that. Something huge would have to happen like a military coup or Congress calling for war on the executive branch or a state succeeding like Texas, SC, and Cali are always rumored to be doing. I don't even know if those things would spark all-out-war.


As far as prepping:

For me, I avoid rallies and anything political as I think people involved are normally the fringe groups who have "lost their minds". But, I do have some plans if a protest gets crazy and I'm stuck in traffic nearby. My home preps aren't any different, as I live in a suburb away from what most would consider a "high risk" area.

That being said, I feel a mob mentality could be an issue if conflict did occur. Dealing with a mob is different than any other home invader or trying to fight a tank.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by JeeperCreeper » Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:06 pm

I read a novel a couple years ago about this situation playing out. I wanna say it was "Through Many Fires: Strengthen What Remains".

Basically Nuclear war or an EMP wiped out government and infrastructure, and a power struggle ensued. The interesting point of it was the international meddling that would happen if there were a Civil War Part 2.

In the book, I think China and Russia were volleying for power to "render aide" and was sanctioned by the UN. Can't really remember.

Now, if America did have a CV2, I feel like another national meddling early on would be a bad play as nothing unites Americans like a common enemy. But I could see foreign actors getting involved and trying to affect the outcome when the war got ugly and a power play could happen.

But again, that comes from a work of fiction.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by flybynight » Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:03 pm

JeeperCreeper wrote:I read a novel a couple years ago about this situation playing out. I wanna say it was "Through Many Fires: Strengthen What Remains".

Basically Nuclear war or an EMP wiped out government and infrastructure, and a power struggle ensued. The interesting point of it was the international meddling that would happen if there were a Civil War Part 2.

In the book, I think China and Russia were volleying for power to "render aide" and was sanctioned by the UN. Can't really remember.

Now, if America did have a CV2, I feel like another national meddling early on would be a bad play as nothing unites Americans like a common enemy. But I could see foreign actors getting involved and trying to affect the outcome when the war got ugly and a power play could happen.

But again, that comes from a work of fiction.
Or like if the power grid was taken out or damaged by agents provocateurs. Right after a a domestic terrorist attack or assassination
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by JeeperCreeper » Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:36 pm

00dlez wrote:...[snip]...
Again, even if you split the country along political lines, it's only the super-minority fringe (both sides) are making a majority of the noise and IF something happened to drive them to violent conflicts against one another, the VAST majority of the country would look to law enforcement and the government to shut it down. I don't see Hundreds of millions of rational - if disagreeing - Americans letting fringe social/political groups violently clash in the streets over the "outrage du jour". They have families, jobs, and lives to get back to.

Also agree with this^^^

I'm trying to think if political parties in the USA is enough to start full out warfare amongst even 25% of the population. If that did happen, I still think a martial-law-national-guard-riot-police situation would cull it.

Like Flybynight alluded to above, maybe a foreign or terror attack would spark it by ripping away all government to allow the "children to run wild".
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by 00dlez » Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:36 pm

JeeperCreeper wrote:
I'm trying to think if political parties in the USA is enough to start full out warfare amongst even 25% of the population. If that did happen, I still think a martial-law-national-guard-riot-police situation would cull it.
Less than 30% of eligible voters even bothered to vote in the last election. If they aren't coming to the polls, I can't see them turning out to put life and limb on the line in a political street fight.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by JeeperCreeper » Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:47 pm

00dlez wrote:
JeeperCreeper wrote:
I'm trying to think if political parties in the USA is enough to start full out warfare amongst even 25% of the population. If that did happen, I still think a martial-law-national-guard-riot-police situation would cull it.
Less than 30% of eligible voters even bothered to vote in the last election. If they aren't coming to the polls, I can't see them turning out to put life and limb on the line in a political street fight.
I wanna say 60% did for president in 2016 but yeah, so I agree... much less for anything else on average.

So my thought is, most of this "tension" is mostly political in nature. I don't think politics, as spicy as it has been lately, is enough to bring people out armed... which is basically what you just said.
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Her secondary offense will be nagging.

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by MPMalloy » Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:22 pm

JeeperCreeper wrote: As far as prepping:

For me, I avoid rallies and anything political as I think people involved are normally the fringe groups who have "lost their minds". But, I do have some plans if a protest gets crazy and I'm stuck in traffic nearby. My home preps aren't any different, as I live in a suburb away from what most would consider a "high risk" area.

That being said, I feel a mob mentality could be an issue if conflict did occur. Dealing with a mob is different than any other home invader or trying to fight a tank.
Quite true. This is a prepping board. That said, one of the first things about prepping, if not the first thing, is to understand the nature & possible effects of a threat. So, the talk about different groups & their motivations are not out of place.

So far my preps for this, at this time, are situational awareness, identify exits, and if all else fails, my CCW.

I really don't know what else I can do. :?

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by flybynight » Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:26 pm

00dlez wrote:
JeeperCreeper wrote:
I'm trying to think if political parties in the USA is enough to start full out warfare amongst even 25% of the population. If that did happen, I still think a martial-law-national-guard-riot-police situation would cull it.
Less than 30% of eligible voters even bothered to vote in the last election. If they aren't coming to the polls, I can't see them turning out to put life and limb on the line in a political street fight.
I think some of you guys are exhibiting a strong sense of normalcy bias. You re looking at it from the point of view of family men with careers, families and responsibilities you take seriously. But if you look at those who were active participants in the L A riots or just about any civil unrest recently I don't see that same level of morality. How many of them do you think voted?
BTW. I don't know if martial law has been enacted since the last civil war. So that in itself would be an indicator of civil war
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by MPMalloy » Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:49 pm

flybynight wrote:
00dlez wrote:
JeeperCreeper wrote:I'm trying to think if political parties in the USA is enough to start full out warfare amongst even 25% of the population. If that did happen, I still think a martial-law-national-guard-riot-police situation would cull it.
Less than 30% of eligible voters even bothered to vote in the last election. If they aren't coming to the polls, I can't see them turning out to put life and limb on the line in a political street fight.
I think some of you guys are exhibiting a strong sense of normalcy bias. You re looking at it from the point of view of family men with careers, families and responsibilities you take seriously. But if you look at those who were active participants in the L A riots or just about any civil unrest recently I don't see that same level of morality. How many of them do you think voted?

BTW. I don't know if martial law has been enacted since the last civil war. So that in itself would be an indicator of civil war
Good points. Those fighting in the street & those who will riot have different values.

I have to act. :ohdear:

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by JeeperCreeper » Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:51 pm

flybynight wrote:
00dlez wrote:
JeeperCreeper wrote:
I'm trying to think if political parties in the USA is enough to start full out warfare amongst even 25% of the population. If that did happen, I still think a martial-law-national-guard-riot-police situation would cull it.
Less than 30% of eligible voters even bothered to vote in the last election. If they aren't coming to the polls, I can't see them turning out to put life and limb on the line in a political street fight.
I think some of you guys are exhibiting a strong sense of normalcy bias. You re looking at it from the point of view of family men with careers, families and responsibilities you take seriously. But if you look at those who were active participants in the L A riots or just about any civil unrest recently I don't see that same level of morality. How many of them do you think voted?
BTW. I don't know if martial law has been enacted since the last civil war. So that in itself would be an indicator of civil war
Good point, you got me there on normalcy bias and martial law.

I still think the motivation isn't there for a nation wide war. I can see how a mob mentality can steamroll itself into a crazy riot or burning of a city. But nothing on a national scale. Like I said, the USA has it too good relatively speaking. Even poor people in the US have it good when compared to those in other places. Same with criminal elements and gang members and drug dealers.

I feel like people wouldn't want to lose what they have for movements that are not strong... at least in this current moment.

Going back to normalcy bias, I think that I am also looking at the current outlook that there has always been crazy conflict, it's just more noticeable due to the 24 hr news cycle and social media and internet. One example is people talk about my generation (millenials) being awful and the downfall of society, but that was said about the hippie generations and I'm pretty sure there's that fake quote from Socrates about Plato that was actually written in 1907 that states that the youth are awful.

So basically, the world's gone mad... same as it always was

source on quote for fun read:
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/05/0 ... ent-times/
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Her secondary offense will be nagging.

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by JayceSlayn » Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:18 am

I like the productivity of this thread so far, and I think as a topic for preparation it has risen significantly in relevancy over the past few years.

To summarize my agreement with some of this last page of discussion:

I'd said that I don't think there will be an all-out civil war within the US anytime soon, but I agree that we could expect increased domestic terrorism from those who would be inclined to see more "reward" than "risk" in violent action. That group is likely comprised of the politically and/or economically disenfranchised (nothing about the current system has benefited them - "why participate in the normal process, and if you've already lost just about everything, why not die for your cause?"), and those who adhere to the extreme views of any political/religious/etc. faction.

I'd also be interested in knowing more about how gangs could be opportunists within any kind of local rule of law breakdown or rioting. Well-organized gangs are essentially alternative governing systems, and a deteriorating situation is an opportunity to leverage that level of organization for their gain. Trying to scry what resources or goals they might consider "gainful" could be harder, since they aren't generally as open about their priorities as national politics, but I'd expect they might target prisons with incarcerated members and/or rivals, law enforcement (who might stand in their way), and looting weapons etc.

ETA: I was also just pondering what might be targets of domestic political terrorism, and protest gathering and high-profile figures are the most obvious. Another reason to avoid widely discussing your political views or participating in such charged gatherings would be to keep your head down, "grey man" style. "Don't make yourself a target" wins the day as the best course of action again. :roll:
Last edited by JayceSlayn on Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
Rahul Telang wrote:If you don’t have a plan in place, you will find different ways to screw it up
Colin Wilson wrote:There’s no point in kicking a dead horse. If the horse is up and ready and you give it a slap on the bum, it will take off. But if it’s dead, even if you slap it, it’s not going anywhere.

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