The Coming Civil War

Topics in this category pertain to planning. Discussions include how to prepare yourself, your family and your community for catastrophes and what you plan to do when they hit you.

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JayceSlayn
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by JayceSlayn » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:22 pm

Of the general population involved in wars within their territory, most probably have a preference for which side they'd rather see "win", but most of them are not going to willingly partake in the fighting to further either sides goals. They might be forced to pick a side if it comes right to their doorstep, but otherwise it is a secondary concern compared to trying to maintain a level of "normal" in life. And after you're out of comforts and conveniences for more than a couple of weeks, everyone is ready to see it end as soon as possible. Unfortunately, most civil wars do not wrap up in a couple of weeks, and can smoulder for years.

I think the present level of animosity and dehumanization between factions within the US (and some of the other first world countries for that matter) is concerning, but I don't think it will lead to a civil war within the next couple of years at least. I think most people eventually come to realize just short of grabbing their metaphorical pitchforks, that there is too much to lose for what abstract "gain" is promised. Everyone loses to some degree in a civil war - it may be only psychologically for some, and ultimately for others. People will continue to try to work the governing systems to their advantage, by earnest appeal or malicious gaming, but I don't think they will opt for open warfare in the streets anytime soon.

I could be wrong though. I feel like I'm as prepared as I can reasonably be if that situation should arise, but I plan on following Raptor's game plan should it happen. The high ground is good, but not being anywhere near the firefight is better. If I have to pick as side, I hope I pick wisely.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:42 pm

raptor wrote:This brings us back to how do you prepare for such events. What is everyone's thoughts on the matter?
Right now, the only thing that I could do would be be to move. Little to no notice. Out of my plans, I have two: One is to BO to the VA here in DSM. I wouold live out of my BOV. The second would be to BO to a VA in an unaffected area.

Providing that the PTB at said VA don't mind. 5/6. :?

From Wikipedia: Political Violence in the US

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by woodsghost » Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:06 pm

So what do we do to prepare. I"ve been thinking about this, and these are my initial thoughts. I"m not a security expert, so they are worth what you paid for them. Also, they are pretty simple.

1) Don't be a target. Don't wear target clothing. Don't post target stickers on your car. Don't put target signs in your yard.

2) Don't go where violence is assembling. Stay home. If violence comes to your home, have a plan and response capability.

3) Make plans with your loved ones. Have a primary and secondary rally point. Something they can get to without maps. It would be super cool if that location was with another preparedness minded person or family.

4) Brush up on your FA skills.

5) If you frequent a likely target (church, government building, some non-profits, maybe some restaurants or other businesses?) check on local security. If there is none, either help them assemble something or consider frequenting another establishment, if possible.

6) If you don't CCW now, consider it. Consider other response options if you need to.

7) Get to know your neighbors. Have them over for dinner. Chat with them. The Turquoise Table movement is a nice model. http://www.kristinschell.com/the-turquoise-table/

8) If possible, get a passport and make plans to access your money from multiple locations.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by jor-el » Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:25 pm

New York presents a number of special challenges due to both the city and state government intent to publicly oppose the Federal government. The only way to avoid involvement in that battle of titans is several hundred miles of distance. The secondary war between NY and its own police is a whole other problem.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:36 pm

jor-el wrote:The secondary war between NY and its own police is a whole other problem.
Huh? Do you mean the residents of NY or the state/local gov't of NY?

Not both I hope. :(

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by MPMalloy » Sun Jun 24, 2018 12:02 am

The things you can find of Wikipedia:

Conflicts in the United States

Violence in the United States

:ohdear:

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by MPMalloy » Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:14 am

Here is what Wikipedia says about crime & such in the aftermath of Katrina. Raptor was there, & has a real good thread, somewhere on ZS, about his first-hand experiences.

Effects of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans
Aftermath - Civil disturbances

The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina was characterized by extensive reporting of looting, violence, shooting against rescuers, murder and rape. While some criminal acts did occur, such as the emptying of an entire Walmart,[41] many reports were also exaggerated, inflated, or simply fabricated. Several news organizations went on to issue retractions.[42]

There were reports of snipers taking potshots at rescue helicopters; these were false. Reports of gangs roving the city shooting police officers and survivors were also false, as only one policeman was shot in the aftermath of Katrina and no indictments were brought forward against the supposed gang members.[43]

Many reported instances of "looting" were in fact stranded survivors scavenging necessary supplies such as food, water, clothing, and shelter.[44] Some instances of looting were later found out to have been carried out by a small number of NOPD officers.[45]

Rebecca Solnit, writing in The Nation, reported that “Several weeks after Hurricane Katrina, community organizer and former Black Panther Malik Rahim had told Amy Goodman on her nationally syndicated program DemocracyNow!, "During the aftermath, directly after the flooding, in New Orleans hunting season began on young African American men. In Algiers, I believe, approximately around 18 African American males were killed. No one really know what's the overall count."”[46]

These investigations led to at least one indictment by the Department of Justice.[47]

Civil disturbances in post-Hurricane Katrina were consistent with all existing research on disaster sociology, which concludes that “[post-disaster] widespread looting [is] a myth”,[48] and were vastly overstated by the media, ultimately fueling a climate of suspicion and paranoia which greatly hampered rescue efforts and further worsened the conditions of the survivors.[49]

Some initial reports of mass chaos, particularly in stories about the Superdome, were later found to be exaggerated or rumor.[50] In the Superdome for example, the New Orleans sex crimes unit investigated every report of rape or atrocity and found only two verifiable incidents, both of sexual assault. The department head told reporters, "I think it was urban myth. Any time you put 25,000 people under one roof, with no running water, no electricity and no information, stories get told." Based on these reports, government officials expected hundreds of dead to be found in the Superdome, but instead found only six dead: four natural deaths, one drug overdose, and one suicide.[40][51] In a case of reported sniper fire, the "sniper" turned out to be the relief valve of a gas tank popping every few minutes.[50]


Additional acts of unrest occurred following the storm, particularly with the New Orleans Police Department. In the aftermath, a tourist asked a police officer for assistance, and got the response, "Go to hell, it's every man for himself."[52] Also, one-third of New Orleans police officers deserted the city in the days before the storm, many of them escaping in their department-owned patrol cars. This added to the chaos by stretching law enforcement thin.[53] Additionally, several NOPD officers were arrested weeks after Katrina for suspicion of vehicle theft.[54]

Gretna controversy - Further information: Gretna, Louisiana § Hurricane Katrina controversy

The City of Gretna on the West Bank of the Mississippi River received considerable press coverage when, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina (late August 2005), displaced and dehydrated survivors who attempted to escape from New Orleans by walking over the Crescent City Connection bridge over the Mississippi River were turned back at gunpoint by City of Gretna Police, along with Crescent City Connection Police and Jefferson Parish Sheriff's deputies, who set up a roadblock on the bridge in the days following the hurricane.

Re-establishing governance

On August 31, New Orleans's 1,500-member police force was ordered to abandon search and rescue missions and turn its attention toward controlling the widespread looting.[citation needed] The city also ordered a mandatory curfew. Mayor Nagin called for increased federal assistance in a "desperate S.O.S.", following the city's inability to control looting. He was often misquoted as declaring "martial law" in the city, despite there being no such term in Louisiana state law (a declaration of a state of emergency was instead made).[55] On the same day, Governor Kathleen Blanco announced the arrival of a military presence, stating that "they have M-16s and are locked and loaded. These troops know how to shoot and kill and I expect they will."[56] Despite the increased law enforcement presence, crime continued to be a problem.[citation needed]

Relief efforts were constantly disrupted by violence[citation needed], and there were reports[citation needed] of groups of armed men running rampant through the streets, looting and pillaging unattended buildings and stores.[citation needed] Charity Hospital, one of several facilities attempting to evacuate patients, was forced to halt the effort after coming under gunfire.[57] By September 1, 6,500 National Guard troops had arrived in New Orleans, and on September 2 Blanco requested a total of 40,000 for assistance in evacuation and security efforts in Louisiana.[58][59][60][61] In addition, the Louisiana State Guard and state defense forces from several states were activated to aid the National Guard in sheltering the large number of refugees leaving Louisiana and assist in other disaster recovery operations.[62]

Some concern over the availability and readiness of the Louisiana National Guard to help stabilize the security situation was raised. Guardsman Lieutenant Colonel Pete had commented that "dozens of high water vehicles, humvees, refuelers, and generators were abroad."[63] At the time of the hurricane, approximately 3,000 members of the Guard were serving a tour of duty in Iraq. With total personnel strength of 11,000, this meant that 27% of the Louisiana National Guard was abroad.[64] However, both the White House and the Pentagon argued that the depletion of personnel and equipment did not impact the ability of the Guard to perform its mission—rather, impassable roads and flooded areas were the major factors impeding the Guardsmen from securing the situation in New Orleans.

Before Hurricane Katrina, the murder rate in New Orleans was ten times higher than the U.S. average. After the situation in New Orleans was brought under control, criminal activity in New Orleans dropped significantly.[65]

In response to the increase in criminal activity in New Orleans, makeshift prisons were constructed to house prisoners for short periods of time. Camp Greyhound was a temporary prison that housed more than 200 suspected looters in New Orleans until they could be transferred to other institutions. With room for 700 prisoners, the facility was guarded by officers from one of the United States' toughest prisons, the Louisiana State Penitentiary at Angola.[66] The station's bus terminals were converted into chain-link prison cells that could hold up to fifteen prisoners each. These prisoners were kept in conditions that included a portable toilet and military issued meals, but excluded a mattress or cot.[67]

Law enforcement constructed the necessary offices of a police station in the general areas of the bus station, which included the offices of the District Attorney and the Justice Department.[68] Camp Greyhound did have several issues with police records due to flooding, and prisoners who had committed minor infractions were kept in the same areas as those with more serious allegations. The facility was run on backup generators and outdated fingerprinting methods were used, which added to the confusion of the facility.[69]

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by raptor » Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:43 am

I've never read that report in Wikipedia.
That was actually a rather bad time in my life as a consequence I tend not to dwell on Katrina at least anymore.

It is certainly true that there were a lot of exaggerations for instance it was it was claimed by the same black panther leader in this organization as well as Spike Lee and several other people that the levees were dynamited in the 9th Ward. They claim this was done to save the the city from flooding.

My other favorite claim is that nobody warned the people in the city to leave for the hurricane. This is all so patently false as proof I offer the fact that I evacuated for the first time for a hurricane.

Indeed there were a lot of exaggerations lots of false reports lots of bad information floating around lots of imagination filling in for reality.

My favorite BS story is the one involving Navy Seals wiping out drug gangs in the flood waters. This occurred in whatever area of the city the person telling the story resides.

There are a lot of people who screwed up in a lot of different levels of organizations before during and after the storm, including the people who chose to stay.

One of the reasons I don't like Wikipedia as a source is that everybody and their brother can edit it for whatever reason they want and therefore it is not necessarily consistent from day today or even minute-to-minute.

My opinion on that Wikipedia wright up is it's an interesting work of fiction, fact and opinion and not necessarily a lot of facts.

If you are remotely interested in a fairly accurate description of the events surrounding Katrina the book The Great Deluge is an excellent reference source.

Spike Lee's movie about the event on the other hand is an interesting interview of people and opinion but not necessarily anything other than entertainment.
Last edited by raptor on Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by absinthe beginner » Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:03 pm

If you are remotely interested in a fairly accurate description of the events surrounding Katrina the book The Great Deluge is an excellent reference source.
Testify. The Great Deluge should be required reading for every official or responder who may be called upon to respond to a natural disaster compounded by the usual bureaucratic hubris, dereliction of duty, inertia, fecklessness, and stupidity. It should also be read by every prepper as a cautionary tale, and by every Pollyanna who believes local, state, and federal authorities would ride to their rescue in the event of a natural or man-made disaster.

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by Stercutus » Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:36 pm

So when people talk about the "next Civil War" I ask, what about the one we are in right now?

There is a broad spectrum of possibilities:

Image

Or the old "Tennessee Chart" if you prefer:

Image


Where we are on the chart is somewhere in that green-yellow merge zone. Notice that the "offense" box on the bottom gets bigger and bigger the closer to the red you get. My concern is things sliding to far to the right side of the chart.
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:46 am

Not closely related to the topic, but I found it to be interesting reading:

List of military strategies and concepts

List of military tactics

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by raptor » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:52 am

absinthe beginner wrote:
Testify. The Great Deluge should be required reading for every official or responder who may be called upon to respond to a natural disaster compounded by the usual bureaucratic hubris, dereliction of duty, inertia, fecklessness, and stupidity. It should also be read by every prepper as a cautionary tale, and by every Pollyanna who believes local, state, and federal authorities would ride to their rescue in the event of a natural or man-made disaster.
NOLA has seen a lot of out state transplants. In my conversations with them when I mention the book, they frequently never heard of it and the common comment i hear is that we have learned a lot since then and will not repeat this mistakes...this despite many clear indications that is not correct on a local and state level that they can see for themselves during moderate rain storms.

The reason this is relevant to this topic is it is my opinion that attacks against power and communication (internet) resources would result in disproportionate chaos.

A short term power outage to most ZS'ers would be an annoyance. To many others it would a disaster worthy of panic.

This IMO could trigger violence that could also be utilized by negative national players.

Another Katrina today would be played out very differently in the national scene.

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by Stercutus » Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:47 am

The reason this is relevant to this topic is it is my opinion that attacks against power and communication (internet) resources would result in disproportionate chaos.
One or two people can cause a huge amount of damage in regard to physical infrastructure attacks (or in some cases like California arson). Cyber attacks are a whole other level of scary and often involve multiple actors these days.

No power/ internet here is no big problem unless the wife is in the middle of one her on line exams in which case the power company better be ready for an earful. However she has even adapted to that and it is no longer such a big deal. No internet? Have only had that once in the last ten years and it was my fault as I accidentally took out the line while planting a pear tree.

I'd say a trifecta of power/ cell/ internet outage at the same time might cause a panic, especially if there were an ongoing external threat.
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by CG » Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:50 am

MPMalloy wrote:Here is what Wikipedia says about crime & such in the aftermath of Katrina. Raptor was there, & has a real good thread, somewhere on ZS, about his first-hand experiences.
Linky to Raptor's thread
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by Stercutus » Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:25 pm

Here is another example of exactly the type of behavior that has me worried file under: "what could possibly go wrong?"

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/06 ... -turn.html
"If you see anybody from that Cabinet in a restaurant, in a department store, at a gasoline station, you get out and you create a crowd and you push back on them and you tell them they’re not welcome anymore, anywhere," Waters said.

She later told MSNBC that protesters are "going to absolutely harass them."

I'll actually be shocked if more acts of violence don't occur.
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by raptor » Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:59 pm

These calls for violence at this level is a marked departure from the 1968 era of unrest.

These continuing and repeated calls for violence are IMO truly dangerous to peace. But then again no one asked me for my opinion before they said these things.

Without going into politics such calls can be utilized by violent people on all sides of the matter as justification for violence.

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Jun 25, 2018 6:04 pm

Stercutus wrote:Here is another example of exactly the type of behavior that has me worried file under: "what could possibly go wrong?"

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/06 ... -turn.html
"If you see anybody from that Cabinet in a restaurant, in a department store, at a gasoline station, you get out and you create a crowd and you push back on them and you tell them they’re not welcome anymore, anywhere," Waters said.

She later told MSNBC that protesters are "going to absolutely harass them."

I'll actually be shocked if more acts of violence don't occur.
Folks, may I have your attention please.

This is a Congresswoman that is calling for partisan political violence. A! FUCKING! MEMBER! OF! CONGRESS!

Some time ago, I changed my party afiliation on my voter reistration to 'no party'. Others might want to think about that or similar actions.

Stay safe! :(

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by Dabster » Mon Jun 25, 2018 6:33 pm

I think this is a very important thread and am no one of any significance in this forum but I would like to remind everyone that we are not allowed to discuss politics here. I'd also encourage you to consider that all of the so-called rabid liberal attacks on the United States look very different from the other side of the fence and this is not as bad as it seems. Sure it's terrible but this escalating political antagonism has been going on since Nixon left office (and both sides are definitely fueling it)...

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by woodsghost » Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:14 pm

Dabster wrote:I think this is a very important thread and am no one of any significance in this forum but I would like to remind everyone that we are not allowed to discuss politics here. I'd also encourage you to consider that all of the so-called rabid liberal attacks on the United States look very different from the other side of the fence and this is not as bad as it seems. Sure it's terrible but this escalating political antagonism has been going on since Nixon left office (and both sides are definitely fueling it)...

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Yo! You are not "no one." You are Dabster! Thanks for the reminder we are all one big family here! :)

And if this shit hits a fan it will land on all of us. We are all in this boat together.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by Stercutus » Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:34 pm

Dabster wrote:I think this is a very important thread and am no one of any significance in this forum but I would like to remind everyone that we are not allowed to discuss politics here. I'd also encourage you to consider that all of the so-called rabid liberal attacks on the United States look very different from the other side of the fence and this is not as bad as it seems. Sure it's terrible but this escalating political antagonism has been going on since Nixon left office (and both sides are definitely fueling it)...

Your pal,

Dabster
I am not picking sides here. There are bad actors all around on ALL sides. This was just the most recent example.
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by absinthe beginner » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:18 pm

If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my child may have peace.

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:21 pm

woodsghost wrote:
Dabster wrote:I think this is a very important thread and am no one of any significance in this forum but I would like to remind everyone that we are not allowed to discuss politics here. I'd also encourage you to consider that all of the so-called rabid liberal attacks on the United States look very different from the other side of the fence and this is not as bad as it seems. Sure it's terrible but this escalating political antagonism has been going on since Nixon left office (and both sides are definitely fueling it)...

Your pal,

Dabster
Yo! You are not "no one." You are Dabster! Thanks for the reminder we are all one big family here! :)

And if this shit hits a fan it will land on all of us. We are all in this boat together.
Yes! United We Stand!!!

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by RonnyRonin » Mon Jun 25, 2018 10:01 pm

A few poorly tied together observations:

While "polarization" does seem to be the correct word for what is going on, it still seems that it is hard to get a sizable group to agree on enough things to take up arms together. The critical mass needed to A) defend the neighborhood B) riot or C) commit targeted acts of vandalism/sabotage/terrorism is much lower then the initiative needed to form a unit, leave family, take and hold ground in the name of X or Y cause. Even smaller militia groups, which would seem to be as cohesive a demographic as you could hope for, have a hard time staying together long term.

I think small groups engaging in increased violence and squabbling over local control is likely, but I just can't see a large enough mass with enough momentum to try a power grab or large scale secession. One state could even split off here or there, but are their even a few states that could agree enough to band together?

I'm fairly unstudied in the American Civil War, but it seems that both sides had
1) more cultural homogeneity then we have today
2) A somewhat functioning government with at least the trappings of legitimacy
3) geographical homogeneity
4) reasonably clear goals

Certainly technology lets large numbers of people join together across the country but I can't help but think they'd be limited in their effectiveness if they couldn't take and hold contiguous pieces of territory. Mao Tse Tung emphasizes that guerrilla forces must at some point revert to supporting conventional forces to end a conflict, and cannot conduct decisive action by themselves, no matter how essential they may be to the initial stages of a conflict.

As Woodsghost alluded to gun ownership is a bit asymmetrical, and while it requires some generalization I'd say the most vehement divides in the country roughly split the gun owners and those that would rather direct force through the state. If the members of the state that would be applying said force don't fall on the same side of the split as those that would like to direct it, things get complex.

Non-traditional gun ownership was reported to have increased, especially after the last election, but I imagine the needle has not been meaningfully moved. While social, verbal, and even physical violence may be on the rise, the later has largely been limited to brawls with sticks and stones, at least by large groups. I think the leap to a shooting conflict would be a large one.


TL;DR: More of the same incivility? sure. True civil war with this squabbling mob? unlikely.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by Stercutus » Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:02 pm

As noted it is a spectrum.

The Yanks vs the Rebs? That won't happen. The penchant for a number of anarchist groups to cause lot of chaos? This seems much more probable.

A senator from Texas won't be leading a rebel army in the desert. A congressman from California might support carefully guarded calls for violence against his opposition. A supporter will be just nutty enough to do it.

The Russians backing a separatist movement in California with enough signatures to reach the ballot? Already happened.
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother

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