The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Topics in this category pertain to planning. Discussions include how to prepare yourself, your family and your community for catastrophes and what you plan to do when they hit you.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by absinthe beginner » Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:59 am

MPMalloy Said: Insightful post absinthe. Thank you.
You're welcome, brother. Remus's Woodpile Report is always thought-provoking.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by raptor » Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:40 pm

absinthe beginner wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:57 am
Civil war concerns aren't just confined to America, it seems.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -civil-war
Canada too and not just Quebec this time. But being Canada it is not a war but rather an exit. "Wexit" for short

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/2 ... xit-060634


Geez everyone is pissed off at everyone....is it something I said? :clownshoes:

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by flybynight » Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:05 pm

raptor wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:40 pm
absinthe beginner wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:57 am
Civil war concerns aren't just confined to America, it seems.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -civil-war
Canada too and not just Quebec this time. But being Canada it is not a war but rather an exit. "Wexit" for short

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/2 ... xit-060634


Geez everyone is pissed off at everyone....is it something I said? :clownshoes:
Behavior sink ( or a downward spiral into rage zombism
As of now I bet you got me wrong

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by raptor » Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:31 pm

flybynight wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:05 pm
raptor wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:40 pm
absinthe beginner wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:57 am
Civil war concerns aren't just confined to America, it seems.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -civil-war
Canada too and not just Quebec this time. But being Canada it is not a war but rather an exit. "Wexit" for short

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/2 ... xit-060634


Geez everyone is pissed off at everyone....is it something I said? :clownshoes:
Behavior sink ( or a downward spiral into rage zombism
Second law of Thermodynamics applies to everything.
In the long run, complex, ordered arrangements actually tend to become simpler and more disorderly with time.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by MPMalloy » Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:50 pm

raptor wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:31 pm
flybynight wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 5:05 pm
raptor wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:40 pm
absinthe beginner wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:57 am
Civil war concerns aren't just confined to America, it seems.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -civil-war
Canada too and not just Quebec this time. But being Canada it is not a war but rather an exit. "Wexit" for short

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/2 ... xit-060634


Geez everyone is pissed off at everyone....is it something I said? :clownshoes:
Behavior sink ( or a downward spiral into rage zombism
Second law of Thermodynamics applies to everything.
In the long run, complex, ordered arrangements actually tend to become simpler and more disorderly with time.
People. It's people being people. People always have been people & people always will be people.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by boskone » Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:26 pm

raptor wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:40 pm
absinthe beginner wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:57 am
Civil war concerns aren't just confined to America, it seems.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -civil-war
Canada too and not just Quebec this time. But being Canada it is not a war but rather an exit. "Wexit" for short

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/2 ... xit-060634


Geez everyone is pissed off at everyone....is it something I said? :clownshoes:
I think a lot of it comes down to tech, the speed of communications and transportation. It allows global micromanagement, with exactly the same effects we've already seen in corporations which try the practice.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by RonnyRonin » Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:48 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:43 am
More is more, with the understanding there is more to it.

Being well armed, equipped and trained and is only half the battle. The other half of the battle has to do with having the proper amount of influence in the local government to not get fucked with. There are plenty of compounds in Syria and Afghanistan that are not touched because the repercussions to whoever does the touching will be too costly.

Fighting less means conserving more. Things may some day go full Mad Max. Then again they might not.
my goal has always been to have a big enough group to *be* a local government. The size required to achieve that depends on the level of breakdown I'm sure, but I figure the difference between a deputized posse enforcing law and order and a gang of brigands that will get hunted down is largely based on how many people are rooting for the group.

I'll keep saying it till I'm blue in the face; social capital is vital, and cannot be emphasized enough.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by RoneKiln » Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:38 pm

RonnyRonin wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:48 pm

I'll keep saying it till I'm blue in the face; social capital is vital, and cannot be emphasized enough.
I fully agree. I've repeatedly read how small gangs during breakdowns quickly grew into very large organizations as people flocked to anyone with the slightest semblance of strength, organization, and resources. Allegedly many community leaders in Serbia started out as petty crooks before the civil war. Now they're politicians.

I don't see why a decent sized group with good intentions couldn't similarly grow in power. I expect they'd screw up a fair number of things along the way, but hopefully not as bad as a gang of thugs.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by Langenator » Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:50 am

RoneKiln wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:38 pm
RonnyRonin wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:48 pm

I'll keep saying it till I'm blue in the face; social capital is vital, and cannot be emphasized enough.
I fully agree. I've repeatedly read how small gangs during breakdowns quickly grew into very large organizations as people flocked to anyone with the slightest semblance of strength, organization, and resources. Allegedly many community leaders in Serbia started out as petty crooks before the civil war. Now they're politicians.

I don't see why a decent sized group with good intentions couldn't similarly grow in power. I expect they'd screw up a fair number of things along the way, but hopefully not as bad as a gang of thugs.
That's a pretty good chunk of the story in Mom's Journal of the Zombie Years over in the fiction section...
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by Stercutus » Fri Nov 01, 2019 6:30 am

One of the things missing from PAW fiction is that there is a segment of the population that likes to bitch about everything and constantly undercut whoever is in charge. When the nice people are in charge these people make things divisive and actually more difficult to get things done. Since they are never satisfied and always want what they can't have they tend to gum up the works. When the thugs are in charge these same people are called "prisoners" or "missing".
You go 'round and around it
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:32 am

More from this week's Woodpile Report:

Some clarification for those who have commented on last week's essay about food as a weapon in a civil war. Some terms are unfamiliar to some readers.

The phrase "deep larder" means very long term storage food. Decades, not years. One example is whole wheat, in Mylar bags, with oxygen and moisture absorbers, sealed in airtight five gallon buckets. Freeze dried food is a deep larder's high end. Also long lasting is dehydrated food vacuum packed in Mason jars or Foodsaver-style plastic pouches.

Your shelves of commercially canned and home canned food are intermediate storage foods—a few years. The food in your cupboard, refrigerator and freezer is short term food. Some a few months, some a few weeks.

In the military, "iron rations" is ready-to-eat food to sustain troops away from a field kitchen. They're currently called MREs, formerly known as C Rations and K Rations. Iron rations are a temporary expedient—a few days. MREs are not intended for long term storage. For the survivalist, iron rations is an emergency cache of food accessible when the main stash isn't. Bugout backpacks are typically stocked with iron rations, either ready-to-eat or quickly prepared.

"Supplies" means ammunition, medicine and medical items, water filters, batteries, repair kits and spare parts, shoes and boots, clothing for all seasons and the like. Supplies are casualty items, in time they're either used up or worn out. "Equipment" is different from supplies. A canteen is equipment, water is supplies. Good quality equipment with routine maintenance, hand tools for example, will outlast the user.

A partisan may use survivalist techniques, but a survivalist is a combatant when self defense is the only alternative. Militants would have you believe you're so extra special you'll be stalked by DC's death squads while tending your secret potato patch. Unless you're out sabotaging bridges or ambushing convoys they aren't going to hunt you down with drones or trackers. They'll have better uses for their time and resources than chasing you around in the hills. It's the desperados you'll have to worry about.

Prudence and a sense of proportion will see the survivalist through. He's of no interest to the warring parties if he stays away from them and their stuff. And if he blunders into them, he'll escape rather than shoot it out. Chances are they'll make a big show of running him off and let it go at that. In their mind they've done their duty, why turn it into a confrontation? If they pursue him, then it's decision time.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by raptor » Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:15 am

Interesting terminology clarification. One key point.
In a civil war or any war for that matter. Anyone in a conflict zone regardless of wehether or not they are a civilian, survivaliat or partizan can be a target. The fact that you do not consider yourself a part of the conflict is irrelevant.

Just because you may not be interested in either side's politics does not mean the politics will mot take am interest in you.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:47 pm

Unless you're out sabotaging bridges or ambushing convoys they aren't going to hunt you down with drones or trackers. They'll have better uses for their time and resources than chasing you around in the hills. It's the desperados you'll have to worry about.
I'm much more concerned about "security forces" and unaccountable local authorities than I am about cannibal outlaw bikers. The former will have no compunction about expropriating any and all personal property they feel like in the name of "the greater good" or trumped-up "civil forfeitures" with no recourse for anyone so victimized. In addition, in places like Mexico there is plenty of precedent for corrupt cops working hand-in-glove with criminals and cartels to rob, kidnap, and extort local civilians with impunity.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by flybynight » Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:24 pm

raptor wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:15 am
Interesting terminology clarification. One key point.
In a civil war or any war for that matter. Anyone in a conflict zone regardless of wehether or not they are a civilian, survivaliat or partizan can be a target. The fact that you do not consider yourself a part of the conflict is irrelevant.

Just because you may not be interested in either side's politics does not mean the politics will mot take am interest in you.
Those who will not own a sword, can still be killed by one.

"In times of armed conflict, despite numerous advancements in technology, the European Union’s European Security Strategy, adopted by the European Council in Brussels in December 2003, stated that since 1990, almost 4 million people have died in wars, 90% of them civilians.[citation needed] However, United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) reports that civilian fatalities have climbed from 5 per cent at the turn of the century to more than 90 per cent in the wars of the 1990s "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualties
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by Stercutus » Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:55 pm

raptor wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:15 am
Interesting terminology clarification. One key point.
In a civil war or any war for that matter. Anyone in a conflict zone regardless of wehether or not they are a civilian, survivaliat or partizan can be a target. The fact that you do not consider yourself a part of the conflict is irrelevant.

Just because you may not be interested in either side's politics does not mean the politics will mot take am interest in you.
Certainly Wilmer McClean would agree with you.
I'm much more concerned about "security forces" and unaccountable local authorities than I am about cannibal outlaw bikers. The former will have no compunction about expropriating any and all personal property they feel like in the name of "the greater good" or trumped-up "civil forfeitures" with no recourse for anyone so victimized. In addition, in places like Mexico there is plenty of precedent for corrupt cops working hand-in-glove with criminals and cartels to rob, kidnap, and extort local civilians with impunity.
You should be worried, even in the US. Currently there is a shortage of police in the US and it is likely to only get worse. There are a lot of factors in play that are causing this but the number of qualified applicants is too low to sustain the current structure for most organization and you can forget about any growth.

I have seen this before in the military. What will happen, what is already happening some places is that standards are going to drop to fill ranks. As that happens you will see an increase in corruption, general incompetence and questionably moral behavior.
You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by woodsghost » Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:21 pm

@ "Idea of neutrality"

Mao felt "neutral people" were simply recruits the enemy had not got yet. Yes, sometimes they are hard to convince to join, but persistent recruiters can find a way.


@Stercutus

Who knows, the economy could downturn and police ranks would be easier to fill again with quality people. Until the upturn....
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by Stercutus » Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:49 pm

It isn't the economy necessarily.

We couldn't fill the ranks in Iraq with police and military with 40% unemployment. Years of Negative publicity, idiotic and not so idiotic protests, a negative risk-reward for doing the job and no community support in high crime areas. When the economy next takes a down turn crime could skyrocket when combined with other factors like letting all the "non-violent" prisoners loose. If that happens then it could become a downward spiral.

I suggest if you live in a high crime area, move or make alternatives now. Moving later might not be an option.
You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by youngfrontier » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:27 am

Langenator wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:50 am
RoneKiln wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:38 pm
RonnyRonin wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:48 pm

I'll keep saying it till I'm blue in the face; social capital is vital, and cannot be emphasized enough.
I fully agree. I've repeatedly read how small gangs during breakdowns quickly grew into very large organizations as people flocked to anyone with the slightest semblance of strength, organization, and resources. Allegedly many community leaders in Serbia started out as petty crooks before the civil war. Now they're politicians.

I don't see why a decent sized group with good intentions couldn't similarly grow in power. I expect they'd screw up a fair number of things along the way, but hopefully not as bad as a gang of thugs.
That's a pretty good chunk of the story in Mom's Journal of the Zombie Years over in the fiction section...
I think that story does a pretty decent job of describing what those gangs will end up being, albeit a little fancied up. The unwelcome sign is probably the best if you're looking for a realistic scenario.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by RoneKiln » Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:31 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 6:30 am
One of the things missing from PAW fiction is that there is a segment of the population that likes to bitch about everything and constantly undercut whoever is in charge. When the nice people are in charge these people make things divisive and actually more difficult to get things done. Since they are never satisfied and always want what they can't have they tend to gum up the works. When the thugs are in charge these same people are called "prisoners" or "missing".
You're right. There always needs to be a few people willing to be the "badguy" to save everyone else from the toxic people. Sometimes it's really hard to clearly quantify what toxic people are doing so that others clearly understand why the toxic people are being driven out or being scared straight.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by Asymetryczna » Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:37 am

Stercutus wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 6:30 am
One of the things missing from PAW fiction is that there is a segment of the population that likes to bitch about everything and constantly undercut whoever is in charge. When the nice people are in charge these people make things divisive and actually more difficult to get things done. Since they are never satisfied and always want what they can't have they tend to gum up the works. When the thugs are in charge these same people are called "prisoners" or "missing".
I had a good laugh at this. In fact, congratulations. You and your quote have been inducted into my current "Quote Book." Have you tried "The Gulag Archipelago?" I almost never find this "missing," whether in fiction or fact. In fact, most recently I visited "nice people in charge" who are definitely "thugs." By the way, it's an interesting word choice. Do you mean to say it starts at birth? Are you a reader of the philosopher/poet known as 2Pac?
It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see.
Henry David Thoreau

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by Stercutus » Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:20 am

By the way, it's an interesting word choice. Do you mean to say it starts at birth? Are you a reader of the philosopher/poet known as 2Pac?
Those from the historical derivation make 2Pac look like pretty weak by comparison. Today in US society it is a more generalized term for those who openly use violence against innocents to take what they want in violation of ROL.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by absinthe beginner » Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:21 am

EXCLUSIVE: A U.S. Marine Used the Neo-Nazi Site Iron March to Recruit for a ‘Racial Holy War'

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/d3aq ... a-race-war

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by flybynight » Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:03 am

absinthe beginner wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:21 am
EXCLUSIVE: A U.S. Marine Used the Neo-Nazi Site Iron March to Recruit for a ‘Racial Holy War'

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/d3aq ... a-race-war
Not too long ago I remember all the talk about the military infiltrated by drug cartel members. Before that it was crips and bloods have infiltrated the military. And way back in the early 90's there was talk how Mexican/American gangs had a large presence in the army and were using their military learned skills against rival gangs and looting the armories of their bases of all manner of small arms.

Is the neo Nazi infiltration just the latest bogieman ?
As of now I bet you got me wrong

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by boskone » Sun Nov 10, 2019 1:01 pm

flybynight wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:03 am
absinthe beginner wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:21 am
EXCLUSIVE: A U.S. Marine Used the Neo-Nazi Site Iron March to Recruit for a ‘Racial Holy War'

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/d3aq ... a-race-war
Not too long ago I remember all the talk about the military infiltrated by drug cartel members. Before that it was crips and bloods have infiltrated the military. And way back in the early 90's there was talk how Mexican/American gangs had a large presence in the army and were using their military learned skills against rival gangs and looting the armories of their bases of all manner of small arms.

Is the neo Nazi infiltration just the latest bogieman ?
Extremism, in general, is the latest boogieman. The only difference is which extremist group a given source thinks should be highest concern.

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