The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Topics in this category pertain to planning. Discussions include how to prepare yourself, your family and your community for catastrophes and what you plan to do when they hit you.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by NT2C » Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:45 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:54 pm
absinthe beginner wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 5:33 pm
NT2C said: As repugnant as I may find such ideology, that last line worries me a lot more than Mr. Cole does.
First they came for the neo-Nazis, and I did not speak out because I was not a neo-Nazi....

https://shenandoahliterary.org/blog/201 ... niemoller/
That whole five murders thing really puts a crimp in it for me.
This is what "puts a crimp in it" for me:
“So, that was enough to convince this judge that at least temporarily – let’s take a time out. Let’s take these guns out and see what we’ve got here,” he said. “It isn’t a crime, he’s not being charged, he’s not in jail ... it is a way to slow things down.”

(emphasis mine)

Essentially it boils down to, "He doesn't believe what we believe or act like we act. He's not breaking any laws, we just don't like him." I'm sorry, regardless of what I may feel about him or what he believes/espouses, it is his right to do so until and unless his actions cross the line into illegality. It is not the province of the courts, prosecutors, and judges to take legal actions against people simply because they don't like them.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by Stercutus » Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:12 am

There is always more to it. Washington State has handgun registration. None of the handguns seized were registered. The group he formed and is a leader in is responsible for several first degree murders. It's not a large group.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by RoneKiln » Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:56 am

I don't know about the murders, but I know there is no firearms registration in WA state at all unless you want to carry concealed. Even then, the firearm itself is not registered.

I am also very concerned with how quick many people are throwing around names and "fascist" or "communist." It sounds like the young man currently being discussed may legitimately be a fascist. Yet the potential for this to broaden on a wide scale is disconcerting to me.

The best prep I see for this issue is to never discuss firearms with anyone. Yet if the mainstream gun owners go silent, it only leaves the crazy belligerent gun owners speaking up and I think they make things worse.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by RoneKiln » Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:18 am

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/weapons ... i-1.603624

Apparently he did have a CPL. I'm not too empathetic for this guy though. Initially I thought he was singled out. This article indicates it was part of a much larger effort against the organization as a whole. I'm still not comfortable with how that red flag law was used though. None of the murders were done by members of his group or in the same state. The article sounds like the group was training out of fear of being attacked in a social upheaval.

I guess I have some conflicting thoughts on the issue. I don't mind a leader of a hate group having his firearms seized, but I am very distrustful of those in charge of defining what qualifies as a hate group.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by flybynight » Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:23 am

Stercutus wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:12 am
There is always more to it. Washington State has handgun registration. None of the handguns seized were registered. The group he formed and is a leader in is responsible for several first degree murders. It's not a large group.
So he was charged? Because otherwise it appears you are espousing a guilty until proven innocent concept. It's not too far a stretch of the imagination seeing this use of red flag law being used against.... Let's say the membership of a national firearms club that a California city recently declared a terror organisation .
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by Stercutus » Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:27 am

flybynight wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:23 am
Stercutus wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:12 am
There is always more to it. Washington State has handgun registration. None of the handguns seized were registered. The group he formed and is a leader in is responsible for several first degree murders. It's not a large group.
So he was charged?
It is a common misunderstanding that the prosecutor has to charge you with a crime when the police collect evidence of a crime. I think TV is to blame for this. Some murder cases don't see an arrest for years while the police collect and examine evidence. The police will likely have a good idea of who did what but they prefer to have evidence beyond a reasonable doubt as that is the legal standard. That isn't the legal standard make an arrest or to collect evidence though.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by Langenator » Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:11 pm

But if they're going to hold the guns as evidence, they have to have a warrant to take them, which means you need to have probable cause to believe that each of those specific guns is connected to a specific crime, signed off by a judge. And they can only hold them indefinitely if they can establish that the guns are in fact linked to some specific crime(s) - and only the guns that are so linked (i.e., the ballistics match some crime that they have ballistic evidence for).

The warrant needs to specify what is being sought, where the police believe it to be located, and if possible, who has it, as well as why the police believe those things, as well as what crime the evidence is connected to. So, for example, seeking a 9mm handgun, which we believe to be located in the residence at 123 Elm St, <city>, in possession of Fredrick Krueger. We believe the gun to have been used in the killing of Apu during that aggravated robbery of the Qwik-E-Mart at <address> on <date/time>. We believe the weapon to be at this location, in Krueger's possession, for the following reasons: usw.

What they can't do is seize the guns "for safekeeping" (because they detained or arrested the owner) and then go on a fishing expedition to test the guns against ballistics for every crime using that caliber since the gun was manufactured.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by woodsghost » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:14 pm

Langenator wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:11 pm
But if they're going to hold the guns as evidence, they have to have a warrant to take them, which means you need to have probable cause to believe that each of those specific guns is connected to a specific crime, signed off by a judge. And they can only hold them indefinitely if they can establish that the guns are in fact linked to some specific crime(s) - and only the guns that are so linked (i.e., the ballistics match some crime that they have ballistic evidence for).

The warrant needs to specify what is being sought, where the police believe it to be located, and if possible, who has it, as well as why the police believe those things, as well as what crime the evidence is connected to. So, for example, seeking a 9mm handgun, which we believe to be located in the residence at 123 Elm St, <city>, in possession of Fredrick Krueger. We believe the gun to have been used in the killing of Apu during that aggravated robbery of the Qwik-E-Mart at <address> on <date/time>. We believe the weapon to be at this location, in Krueger's possession, for the following reasons: usw.

What they can't do is seize the guns "for safekeeping" (because they detained or arrested the owner) and then go on a fishing expedition to test the guns against ballistics for every crime using that caliber since the gun was manufactured.
That fishing expedition would be, as I understand, a "general warrant." Which, I understand, the Constitution forbids.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by NT2C » Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:48 pm

RoneKiln wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:56 am
I don't know about the murders, but I know there is no firearms registration in WA state at all unless you want to carry concealed. Even then, the firearm itself is not registered.

I am also very concerned with how quick many people are throwing around names and "fascist" or "communist." It sounds like the young man currently being discussed may legitimately be a fascist. Yet the potential for this to broaden on a wide scale is disconcerting to me.

The best prep I see for this issue is to never discuss firearms with anyone. Yet if the mainstream gun owners go silent, it only leaves the crazy belligerent gun owners speaking up and I think they make things worse.
Well, you can always talk about the ones that fell overboard while duck hunting...
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by absinthe beginner » Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:22 am

Battleground: 7 in 10 say US ‘on the edge of civil war’

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wash ... -civil-war

Partisan political division and the resulting incivility has reached a low in America, with 67% believing that the nation is nearing civil war, according to a new national survey.

“The majority of Americans believe that we are two-thirds of the way to being on the edge of civil war. That to me is a very pessimistic place,” said Mo Elleithee, the executive director of Georgetown University’s Institute of Politics and Public Service.

And worse, he said in announcing the results of the Institute’s Battleground Poll civility survey, the political division is likely to make the upcoming 2020 presidential race the nastiest in modern history.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by Stercutus » Thu Oct 24, 2019 10:51 am

absinthe beginner wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:22 am
Battleground: 7 in 10 say US ‘on the edge of civil war’

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wash ... -civil-war

Partisan political division and the resulting incivility has reached a low in America, with 67% believing that the nation is nearing civil war, according to a new national survey.

“The majority of Americans believe that we are two-thirds of the way to being on the edge of civil war. That to me is a very pessimistic place,” said Mo Elleithee, the executive director of Georgetown University’s Institute of Politics and Public Service.

The interesting thing for me is that the state I currently reside in is very monochromatic politically. However there is very little arguing in public, protests or that kind of thing. While I would say nationally the situation has worsened since this thread began I have not seen the level of disturbance I was expecting to see. This summer will likely tell the tale though.


In other news the people responsible for running the government are no longer playing by the rules. This is disturbing on a lot of levels and sets an example for people around the country.

https://www.npr.org/2019/10/23/77268462 ... pentagon-a
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by majorhavoc » Thu Oct 24, 2019 11:38 am

Rumblings come from all corners of society.[warning: link discusses - obviously - politics. Posted solely because tweet in question directly references civil war]

An MLB umpire tweeted about buying an assault rifle over the impeachment inquiry

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by NT2C » Thu Oct 24, 2019 3:45 pm

RickOShea wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2019 2:09 pm
Stercutus wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2019 10:51 am
In other news the people responsible for running the government are no longer playing by the rules. This is disturbing on a lot of levels and sets an example for people around the country.

https://www.npr.org/2019/10/23/77268462 ... pentagon-a
Watchu talking about, bruh? That was awesome. They were the [REDACTED] of Capitol Hill....except they brought pizza and Chick-fil-A, instead of bike locks and bottles of pee.Image
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by NvisionAZ » Sat Oct 26, 2019 1:48 am

So if I may, as the new guy back on here after many years of absence, get this train back on track???

- Is it likely the US could become balkanized enough to begin a cycle of heavy violence that is politically based?
Yes. Although I believe the armchair antagonists will suddenly become quiet once their actions get out of their control and the gangs take over and begin the looting and burning of houses. They will suddenly become one with those of intent on saving our neighborhoods and cities. Figuring out later they may have changed their opinions of us savages with trucks and guns. We are their neighbors, after all.

- If such a cycle were to begin what measures would you take to protect yourself and family beyond whatever measures you currently take to protect yourself against general crime?
My normal defenses at home would ratchet up a higher level, small arms would replace side arms for daily carry and chores.

- Does the model of small, disparate, extremist groups seem logical or is there another model that seems more logical?
In my area in central AZ, it would most likely turn into roving gangs looking for new targets of opportunity.
Defending ones neighborhood ie "Lights Out" style even though I am in the outlying areas of suburbia here, will become the priority. Once there is action inside your neighborhood, fires from house to house would be tough to control. Even with the abundance of pools here, no one would have a pump big enough to push enough water.

My two cents,
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:23 am

During tough economic times, identity politics always seem to come to the fore. Case in point: Spain, where the wealthy province of Catalonia wants to go its own way and Madrid is saying, hell no. Self-determination is a potent rallying cry that can unleash a lot of centrifugal forces in a country comprised of disparate peoples who may not share a common identity or vision.

I think I'll go listen to Pink Floyd's "Us and Them" again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50194846

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:45 am

The latest Woodpile Report talks about food as a weapon in Civil War II. I won't link to it due to political content, but below are some excerpts from the article, which is worth reading in its entirety.

History and cold calculation suggest food would be a weapon in a Civil War II, one of many, but of prime importance long term. Civil wars have long gestations, go kinetic suddenly and get complicated in a hurry. We have no firm knowledge what would set it off, who would be actively involved or how it would end. But the outlines are repeated well enough to guide our preparations.

Food is the indispensable survival prep. At minimum this means a secure long-term stash of high calorie food sufficient to outlast the initial violence and privation without relying on resupply. Call it a year, maybe two.

Preppers are kidding themselves about large, elaborate enclaves. Such communities with their gardens, livestock, solar powered utilities, weapons, comms, storehouses, workshops, tools and supplies would be fatally attractive. Training with light infantry tactics and weapons is understandable, but repelling serial attacks by gangs and other armed opportunists would include attrition, i.e., the worker bees would win battles but eventually too few would remain to run the place. And when it became unviable, so would they.

Such redoubts have their place when the meltdown eases, but in the initial phases, less is more.

Well placed and practiced survivalists could get by on a onesey-twosey basis. Two may survive where one wouldn't. Three or four may be better, assuming an adequate reserve of food and supplies. With more than four the liabilities are likely to outweigh the advantages. It assumes the deepest of deep larders, extensive supplies and harmonious wisdom in all things. Unless each make an irreplaceable contribution of critical value it's probably too big a footprint for this phase. Loosely allying with similar small groups for mutual benefit may be the better choice. Five or more is a crowd, a danger to itself.

Famine is a given in contemporary civil war. Those embedded in interior cities have no chance, so, next item....

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by raptor » Sat Oct 26, 2019 11:50 am

The US Civil War urilized food as a weapon against military and civilian populations. Sherman's march to the sea did exactly that. They burned food stocks, farms, shot non-combatants and killed and or "confiscated" animals. The civiluan non-combatants left alive were simply left with the choice of leaving (most withnowhere to go) or starvng. The CSA was not much better in tegards to the populace and thier food supplies.

The lessons are simple.
In a civil war there are no such things as civilians.
Civil War rapidily becomes an uncivil total war.

To look at this US tragedy from a modern perspective, all you have to do is look what happens when the power goes out for 24 hours. Keep in mind that in addition to food electrtical power is now almost as critical life.

The people in urban and even suburban areas are very dependent upon just in time delivery of food, power and fuel.

Today Sherman would take down power lines instead of RR tracks. He would burn distribution warehouses and fuel storage facilities. He would block interstate highways at strategic points like bridges. Yes he would also tear up some RR tracks but fuel transmission points would be a higher priority.

Without fuel there is no need to do too much damage to other infrastructure. Unlike steam engines modern machinery needs fuel.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Oct 26, 2019 3:12 pm

Raptor said: Today Sherman would take down power lines instead of RR tracks. He would burn distribution warehouses and fuel storage facilities. He would block interstate highways at strategic points like bridges. Yes he would also tear up some RR tracks but fuel transmission points would be a higher priority.
Today I think we'd see criminal gangs be the first organized elements to attempt to exploit the security vacuum by taking control of the distribution of life's essentials: food, water, energy, medical supplies, etc. They would fight it out and eventually cartel-like super gangs would rise to the top, gain monopoly positions, crush competitors, and seek to charge whatever the market would bear while extorting all producers and specialists. Sherman's Army would be a godsend by comparison.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by Stercutus » Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:07 pm

If Iraq is any guide Rail will definitely be disrupted. There still is practically no rail service 15 years in to the various revolts and insurgency. This is more important to disrupt supply and logistical operations than passenger traffic. Trucks are crazy inefficient for transporting bulk cargo and very costly even in a small country like Iraq.

A lot of it has to do with greed. Those running the trucking concerns are making billions running all supplies in to the country.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by TacAir » Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:55 am

raptor wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2019 11:50 am
The US Civil War urilized food as a weapon against military and civilian populations. Sherman's march to the sea did exactly that. They burned food stocks, farms, shot non-combatants and killed and or "confiscated" animals. The civiluan non-combatants left alive were simply left with the choice of leaving (most withnowhere to go) or starvng. The CSA was not much better in tegards to the populace and thier food supplies.

The lessons are simple.
In a civil war there are no such things as civilians.
Civil War rapidily becomes an uncivil total war.

To look at this US tragedy from a modern perspective, all you have to do is look what happens when the power goes out for 24 hours. Keep in mind that in addition to food electrtical power is now almost as critical life.

The people in urban and even suburban areas are very dependent upon just in time delivery of food, power and fuel.

Today Sherman would take down power lines instead of RR tracks. He would burn distribution warehouses and fuel storage facilities. He would block interstate highways at strategic points like bridges. Yes he would also tear up some RR tracks but fuel transmission points would be a higher priority.

Without fuel there is no need to do too much damage to other infrastructure. Unlike steam engines modern machinery needs fuel.
I've noted before that my FIL served in the PTO - specifically, for this lesson, in the PI with MacArthur.

Despite living in rural Utah, deep in "Mormon country' he never had a large stock of LTS foods. This was a lesson from the PI he shared with me:

"If your good neighbors didn't steal your food, the local PTB (Japanese occupation forces or the restored Philippine Govt) would take it, at gunpoint, as "taxes"..

Having Chow on hand is one thing in better times, keeping it in bad times is an altogether different tale of woe.
(remember the police hijacking fuel at gunpoint after Katrina - it can happen here)

One current lesson set is our neighbors to the South - the lines for what little is for sale are epic...

Image

This is just one of the 1000s of food line photos found when looking at the troubles in Venezuela.

Whoever controls the food, controls the population.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by RonnyRonin » Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:49 pm

absinthe beginner wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:45 am

Preppers are kidding themselves about large, elaborate enclaves. Such communities with their gardens, livestock, solar powered utilities, weapons, comms, storehouses, workshops, tools and supplies would be fatally attractive. Training with light infantry tactics and weapons is understandable, but repelling serial attacks by gangs and other armed opportunists would include attrition, i.e., the worker bees would win battles but eventually too few would remain to run the place. And when it became unviable, so would they.

Such redoubts have their place when the meltdown eases, but in the initial phases, less is more.
I'd be curious to know what this is based on, I've always had a "more is more" philosophy when it comes to people. As some very good threads on here have discussed in the past there is a minimum number of people required to maintain 24 hour security, and its a good number north of 4 if memory serves. There are also some testimonies that made the rounds (the balkan guy I think?) that seemed to describe the opposite of the above; large families with lots of man power survived while small groups and loaners didn't do well.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by Stercutus » Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:43 am

RonnyRonin wrote:
Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:49 pm
absinthe beginner wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:45 am

Preppers are kidding themselves about large, elaborate enclaves. Such communities with their gardens, livestock, solar powered utilities, weapons, comms, storehouses, workshops, tools and supplies would be fatally attractive. Training with light infantry tactics and weapons is understandable, but repelling serial attacks by gangs and other armed opportunists would include attrition, i.e., the worker bees would win battles but eventually too few would remain to run the place. And when it became unviable, so would they.

Such redoubts have their place when the meltdown eases, but in the initial phases, less is more.
I'd be curious to know what this is based on, I've always had a "more is more" philosophy when it comes to people. As some very good threads on here have discussed in the past there is a minimum number of people required to maintain 24 hour security, and its a good number north of 4 if memory serves. There are also some testimonies that made the rounds (the balkan guy I think?) that seemed to describe the opposite of the above; large families with lots of man power survived while small groups and loaners didn't do well.
More is more, with the understanding there is more to it.

Being well armed, equipped and trained and is only half the battle. The other half of the battle has to do with having the proper amount of influence in the local government to not get fucked with. There are plenty of compounds in Syria and Afghanistan that are not touched because the repercussions to whoever does the touching will be too costly.

Fighting less means conserving more. Things may some day go full Mad Max. Then again they might not.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:06 pm

absinthe beginner wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:45 am
The latest Woodpile Report talks about food as a weapon in Civil War II. I won't link to it due to political content, but below are some excerpts from the article, which is worth reading in its entirety.

History and cold calculation suggest food would be a weapon in a Civil War II, one of many, but of prime importance long term. Civil wars have long gestations, go kinetic suddenly and get complicated in a hurry. We have no firm knowledge what would set it off, who would be actively involved or how it would end. But the outlines are repeated well enough to guide our preparations.

Food is the indispensable survival prep. At minimum this means a secure long-term stash of high calorie food sufficient to outlast the initial violence and privation without relying on resupply. Call it a year, maybe two.

Preppers are kidding themselves about large, elaborate enclaves. Such communities with their gardens, livestock, solar powered utilities, weapons, comms, storehouses, workshops, tools and supplies would be fatally attractive. Training with light infantry tactics and weapons is understandable, but repelling serial attacks by gangs and other armed opportunists would include attrition, i.e., the worker bees would win battles but eventually too few would remain to run the place. And when it became unviable, so would they.

Such redoubts have their place when the meltdown eases, but in the initial phases, less is more.

Well placed and practiced survivalists could get by on a onesey-twosey basis. Two may survive where one wouldn't. Three or four may be better, assuming an adequate reserve of food and supplies. With more than four the liabilities are likely to outweigh the advantages. It assumes the deepest of deep larders, extensive supplies and harmonious wisdom in all things. Unless each make an irreplaceable contribution of critical value it's probably too big a footprint for this phase. Loosely allying with similar small groups for mutual benefit may be the better choice. Five or more is a crowd, a danger to itself.

Famine is a given in contemporary civil war. Those embedded in interior cities have no chance, so, next item....
Insightful post absinthe. Thank you.

absinthe beginner
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by absinthe beginner » Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:57 am

Civil war concerns aren't just confined to America, it seems.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -civil-war

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