The Coming Civil War

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The Coming Civil War

Post by Stercutus » Fri Jun 22, 2018 2:58 pm

This is going to be a tough nugget to crack. It occurred to me the other day that one of the reasons that ZS traffic has dropped is that because we DONT discuss politics. Lately it seems in my country in particular a lot of people want to crack up the volume in the echo chamber and make sure to tell everyone about their displeasure about something.

Another possible reason that the traffic has dropped is that anyone who posts lies and bullshit (other than in a non-serious, humorous way) gets the dog crap pounded out of them and they run off with their tail between their legs. Yet it seems to me that these days every single major media source has polarized and now simply spouts their party line, whatever it may be, regardless of whether it is true or not. Lately the rock throwers and vandals seem to be advocating more for violence and less for peaceable solutions. It seems the problems of the day are too much to compromise on or find middle ground or simply look for and accept the truth. It seems the loudest voices have hit a wall with Godwin's Law and are trying to break new ground.

I'd like to think that the organizations that are responsible for enforcing the laws in the US are apolitical and such an event would prove near impossible due to the blindness of Lady Justice but that may be a pipe dream. A failure of law enforcement to enforce the law properly could be catastrophic and allow political organizations to run a muck unchecked with the backing of polarized politicians and media organizations. Once something like that gets started it is really, really hard to stop it. This is something that has been occurring to me lately based upon current events.

I still don't want to discuss politics. I assume anyone who goes political here is weak, cowardly, small minded and has nothing to contribute of note to the actual topic under discussion and instead simply wants to work on their echo chamber skills. As self-pleasuring as that may be this is a grown up discussion so do that elsewhere if you please, like the bathroom, just clean up after.

What I'd like to look at is a model for "how to" a low grade civil war in the US would most likely play out. There seems to be some consensus that it would be an Iraq/ Syria type model with many different factions. I can tell you that both those countries broke right across religious lines which makes a lot of sense since religion plays a huge role in every part of life in that part of the world. We don't have much religious infighting in the US so this is not a great model. I'd like to look at how people would react to such a conflict as proposed here:


http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/10/wha ... look-like/
much of the last century was about deconstructing the habits of large-scale, state-driven conventional warfare. As networks distribute power to the edges, warfighting shifts further away from a handful of monolithic forces and towards a diverse web of small actors. Warfare now often proceeds from ideologically and economically marginalized communities whose suffering and fear is wielded by cunning global actors. They become guerrillas, rebel factions, proxies, and insurgencies. Sometimes they look more like tribal conflicts composed along racial, religious, familial or economic lines, often on top of resource crises that push violence to become a necessary solution. But they are rarely simple two-sided conflicts.
When they say "look like" what they mean is that they are. The US is not quite very tribal or overly religious. There are some breaks along racial and ethnic lines. This is important as in a risky venture like a civil war people are going to want to fight with people they trust implicitly with a common bond, unless they are a moron.

The US also has no current true resource crisis. An actual resource crisis puts lives at risk. There is a lot of discussion about distribution of wealth but this is hardly new. We are not a nation of "Have and Have-nots", we are more nation of "Have and Have Lot More". If the lower resource rich group were sudden suffer reversals that could contribute.
For the United States, the shape of future homeland conflicts will be asymmetrical, distributed, and heterogeneous. A contemporary homeland conflict would likely self-compose with numerous dynamic factions organized by digital tools around ideological and affinity networks. It would likely be a patchwork of affiliated insurgency groups and their counterparts engaging in light skirmishes along the overlapping edges of their networks, mixed with occasional high-value terror attacks against soft and hard targets. Such groups are much smaller than conventional militaries and where they lack in firepower, they wield transgression.
This nearly defines how gang society in the US currently functions. We have had a low grade civil war in many parts of the country for decades with gangs competing for resources, territory and power. Thousands die every year in these conflicts and tens of thousands are wounded. This is a resource fight. Most gangs break across racial and ethnic lines. They have certainly gone digital in the last decade. Most gang members grow up in violent communities where it is a part of daily life. Most Americans only see it if they get victimized or get caught in a cross fire. I am not saying that street gangs will lead a charge in a general revolt, just that their model is one that may be emulated intentionally or not.
digital networks erode the boundaries of the state. Like the Islamic State and al Qaeda, any cell can browse the literature, claim allegiance in some far-flung burb, and start whipping up violence against their targets.
Truth. We have been seeing this for years. I think this is increasing.

So thoughts on:

- Is it likely the US could become balkanized enough to begin a cycle of heavy violence that is politically based?

- If such a cycle were to begin what measures would you take to protect yourself and family beyond whatever measures you currently take to protect yourself against general crime?

- Does the model of small, disparate, extremist groups seem logical or is there another model that seems more logical?
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by the_alias » Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:13 pm

So thoughts on:

- Is it likely the US could become balkanized enough to begin a cycle of heavy violence that is politically based?

- If such a cycle were to begin what measures would you take to protect yourself and family beyond whatever measures you currently take to protect yourself against general crime?

- Does the model of small, disparate, extremist groups seem logical or is there another model that seems more logical?
I would argue the US is already partially balkanized to this extent.

The culture war never went away - if anything it has gotten worse. Super polarization is now the normal (I dabble in online dating and the amount of "Don't even bother if you voted for CANDIDATE X" and political signaling to a very extreme degree is insane)

However the cycle of heavy violence element is more tricky to determine - for one thing a certain stripe of people are very invested at the moment in attacking the 2nd Amendment. Those people are ultimately banking on the State enacting and enforcing violence on their behalf - how likely is that group to take violent action versus how likely is the State to take violent action?

What I can see happening is fringe elements of the extreme engaging in violent acts if the State breaks down further. For the average person this won't affect them but they may get caught up in it.

As for what measures I would take basically they evolve into carrying a backup gun, extra magazine and limiting travel to large urban areas/areas of risk.

Being more prepared for system shocks if these groups target infrastructure would also feature heavily.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by Stercutus » Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:16 pm

What I can see happening is fringe elements of the extreme engaging in violent acts if the State breaks down further. For the average person this won't affect them but they may get caught up in it.
Just to give you an idea if only 2% of the population decided to become insurgents that would be twice as many people currently in all military units active and reserve, as well as all police agencies at all levels in the entire country. This could quickly become much more than the state security apparatus could handle.
Super polarization is now the normal (I dabble in online dating and the amount of "Don't even bother if you voted for CANDIDATE X" and political signaling to a very extreme degree is insane)
Fascinating. I have been off of the dating market for well more than two decades so have not kept up with the current trends. I can really see the echo chamber expanding to all aspects of one's life due to the ease of being able to isolate yourself in a particular world of thought and message due to the greater capability to seek like minded people.

In my age we picked our dating partners due to physical characteristics and personality. After getting to know their thoughts proceeded or not. Now you can pick a person based upon their politics up front. This does not leave much room for growth.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by 00dlez » Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:27 pm

Stercutus wrote:
So thoughts on:

- Is it likely the US could become balkanized enough to begin a cycle of heavy violence that is politically based?

- If such a cycle were to begin what measures would you take to protect yourself and family beyond whatever measures you currently take to protect yourself against general crime?

- Does the model of small, disparate, extremist groups seem logical or is there another model that seems more logical?
In short:

No.

Bug-in, keep a low profile (physically and socially), and let it blow over.

Very logical, but ineffective.

------

Your points are all well taken and not off base, but my take on them makes me think it's not anything too frightening or immediately threatening on a broad scale. When it comes to politics, especially nationally, people forget just how many people are out there not participating in the highly partisan rhetoric - and in fact generally ignore it.

For every one die-hard supporter Info Wars drums up with fear-mongering, they probably turned ten off.
For every ANTIFA goon that joins up because of what they saw on the 10 o'clock news, ten more drift to the other side of things.

Things might seem more inflamed because any tiny event half the country away gets covered so intensely until the next headline comes, piling on itself like it's some tsunami, but it's really just mostly small, anecdotal incidents that are forgotten in a week precisely because they are insignificant.

We see seemingly large crowds of hundreds of protesters/counter-protestors shouting and some times even getting violent! What is the world coming too! But in those same metro areas there's millions of people who don't care about whatever atrocity has whipped the crowd into a fervor, won't ever participate for either side in any way (money, lipservice, activism, etc) and in a majority of cases think both sides are nutty and are just turned off.

1967 Detroit Riot, 1992 LA Riot - Terrible, brutal, landmark events in our Country's history. They lasted days and resulted in dozens of deaths each... But that's also my point... Days. Dozens. Localized.

Living in St. Louis, we have had a lot of recent exposure to these sorts of extreme demonstrations - they are often intensely covered but also extremely localized. I live less than 8 miles from Ferguson and never caught a whiff of anything I'd deem immediately threatening. One night there was a related protest two blocks away from our house - I didn't realize until the next day when I saw it on the news.
((in writing I realize my selected examples seem like I'm veering towards race verses political groups - pick any brand of political action group from either side and you'll find the similar trend of relatively small, localized, quickly forgotten in favor of the "riot du jour".))

I think most of Americans see these displays in a negative light, regardless of their political leanings, and therefore the "movements" will never get support, numbers, or traction they need for anything close to a protracted, unified event. Quickly I feel like the vast majority in the middle - regardless of their political leanings - would look for law enforcement to clean house in relatively short order.

Days. Dozens. Infrequent. Localized. Disjointed.

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by the_alias » Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:46 pm

Just to give you an idea if only 2% of the population decided to become insurgents that would be twice as many people currently in all military units active and reserve, as well as all police agencies at all levels in the entire country.
I don't disagree with this sentiment at all just throwing what I think are more realistic numbers at it:

Let's say for sake of argument 246 million adults in the US who would be potential pool for this.

Eliminate 65% of that (obesity or overweight)

Leaves 86 million adults

Let's, for the sake of argument assume mostly men are going to be the ones causing the violence but we'll throw a bit of a bone in there and say that comes out to 44 million people.

You say 2% of this population - let's say 1% = 400k people.

Active and reserve military = what 2 million roughly?

How much overlap between the insurgent group and the active military group do we expect? (As in statistically who by the numbers would be in both camps)

Could be as much as half or all right?

That still leaves a lot of people....

But we haven't even considered what it would take to get 2 million people to have strong enough convictions to go that far....

Just food for thought.

To me it seems unlikely doing those numbers.
Last edited by the_alias on Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Math idiocy
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by Stercutus » Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:53 pm

00dlez, I think I agree with just about everything you posted with a caveat. If things go sideways suddenly and unexpectedly with an unforeseen event shit could get "real" fast. I am not thinking of a natural disaster type event. Even a huge disaster with a Katrina like response with a Federal vs. Local media circus would not be enough. It would have to be something that upsets the economic apple cart leaving a very high percentage of people either dispossessed or without an economic future. Americans tend to get pissed off the most when their wallets are touched.



1% of 44M is 400K not 4M. But I understand your argument. Still, 400K can cause a hell of a lot of chaos. Today there is not enough impetus.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by the_alias » Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:56 pm

Hah my bad math - thanks for the edit I thought it seemed off in my head then got distracted writing that post...

Question I think is - how many and how much chaos gets started that suddenly more and more get involved?

One outcome I think is more people up arm their neighborhood to defend themselves but don't necessarily involve.

Think looking at Northern Ireland and how the communities reacted to the Troubles is an example. I don't know but what % of each "side" joined a paramilitary force?
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by woodsghost » Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:08 pm

I think we will see both social media and literal assassinations of political figures and public figures. I think we will see mob violence, bombings, arson, and hacking against hated faith groups, businesses, and political parties.

I think racial tension will continue to rise. All the races have Supremacist wings. And they all hate each other. No one group has a monopoly on racism.

Sturcutus, I disagree and I think we *will* see tension and violence based on economic inequality. Yes, American poor are better off than the Iraqi or Afgan middle class, but I think there are many who have experienced economic disappointment and limited opportunity. The reasons are many and complex. I'll leave "right and wrong" out of it.

I think violence and tension will be concentrated in urban centers.

I also think Russia, and maybe China, will stir the pot a little. Both in the US and in Europe. On the other hand, it's a pot which does not need much help in getting stirred.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by Stercutus » Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:22 pm

Think looking at Northern Ireland and how the communities reacted to the Troubles is an example. I don't know but what % of each "side" joined a paramilitary force?
Ireland broke on religious lines. Depending upon who you asked everyone was in the IRA at some point. For the Troubles Wiki says:

UVF = 1500
DCDA = ?
PIRA = 30-40K

Lots of other little groups figure close to 50K on a population of four million at the time or little over 1%. Casualties were in the thousands.



hacking
Good point. This is fraught with much greater risk in the US than in other countries due to the high level of automation and industrialization.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by absinthe beginner » Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:12 pm

What I'd like to look at is a model for "how to" a low grade civil war in the US would most likely play out.
There would be no such thing as a "low grade" civil war. Given how polarized the country has become, and the antipathy between groups of people who no longer want to live with each other, any eruption of conflict would turn incredibly ugly, very quickly, drawing in power-hungry criminals, predators, and opportunists on both sides. It would unleash the very worst instincts and proclivities in millions of people, and the atrocities and outrages would feed on themselves.

I hope I never live to see the day, but unless people start learning to disagree in a civil and respectful manner - which seems like a forlorn hope at this point - I'm afraid we're headed in that direction, especially in the event of an economic collapse. I also fear that as a people, we're becoming ungovernable, especially with the collapse in public and private morality, and the popular disdain for previously respected institutions of governance and a "win at all costs" mentality that has become commonplace, replacing the old virtues and moral codes.

The 2012 movie "God Bless America" depicts an unlikely pair of protagonists, middle aged Frank and teenaged Roxy, going off the rails as they are repulsed by how crass and vulgar "Murica" has become. "Why have a civilization if we're no longer interested in being civilized?" Frank laments. Indeed. The movie is thought-provoking, as it highlights trends that should concern anyone who is concerned about the road we're on, as well as the potential for alienated, disaffected individuals with estranged points of view to act out in a way that could pose a serious threat to society, and further fray the fabric of the country.

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by woodsghost » Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:53 pm

Stercutus wrote: Americans tend to get pissed off the most when their wallets are touched.
I think respect for the Constitution, or threats to the Constitution, have proven to motivate a lot of Americans too.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by Stercutus » Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:38 pm

There would be no such thing as a "low grade" civil war. Given how polarized the country has become, and the antipathy between groups of people who no longer want to live with each other, any eruption of conflict would turn incredibly ugly, very quickly, drawing in power-hungry criminals, predators, and opportunists on both sides. It would unleash the very worst instincts and proclivities in millions of people, and the atrocities and outrages would feed on themselves.
A lot of the polarization is talk. I deal with people every day that love to talk big, make threats and then fail to act on their threats. Every once in a while I'll get a live one but it is a rare thing. Being the baddest mofo on the internet is one thing, being the real deal is quite another.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by flybynight » Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:39 pm

It's in my sig line . John Titor was right.
I remember when this story was playing out on Art Bell. But at the time I never really put too much into it. Figured it was just another cleverly put together hoax. A few months ago, my son asked me if I remembered Mel's Hole cause his GF at the time said she had discovered it on Google maps. We laughed about it. The story was this guy had a hole in his yard that was never ending deep.
This got me thinking about all the weird stories that used to be on Art Bell. I remembered the time traveler John Titor and wondered if any of his predictions had come true. The one I remembered most was a civil war in the U S ending with a short nuclear ww3. He had said in his timeline by 2005 the country was in full scale civil war. So... Nope.

But re reading some of his quotes gave me pause.

"None of the things I have said will be a surprise. They were set in motion ten, twenty, even thirty years ago. Are you really surprised to find out that Iraq has nukes now or is that just BS to whip everyone up into accepting the next war? – February 5, 2001, Post2Post Art Bell Forum "

Hmmm seven months before 9/11 and years before the war in Iraq.


"“The President or ‘leader’ in 2005 I believe tried desperately to be the next Lincoln and hold the country together but many of their policies drove a larger wedge into the Bill of Rights. The President in 2009 was interested only in keeping his/her power base.February 21, 2001, Post2Post Art Bell Forum”"

The president in 05 was Bush. But it does sound a lot like Obama

Titors story was that the civil war was basically the cities against the more rural area's. That sounds familiar too
"“The conflict was not about taking and holding ground it was about order and rights. They were betting that people wanted security instead of freedom and they were wrong.” ( can't find the date posted. Sometime in 2001)

I believe things come in cycles. I live in the area that some people consider the place where the first civil war started. Bleeding Kansas. When you read about that era of our history, the acts of violence perpetrated by both sides of the slavery issue bear no sign of normal sane men. I see the same type of insanity now. . Mass shootings, violent riots . Murders for the sake of killing.
Yea I know it sounds like crazy talk. But it makes me wonder. It also make me wonder why I believe a second civil war is inevitable.
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I've grown old, guys. If war comes to my doorstep, I'm dead meat. I ccw and sometimes have a pump shotty in the truck. My best bet if something happens is to be as grey as possible. My house is my Alamo. That's my best bet. My son in law has already told me he's bringing his family here if anything were to happen. That will be my job. Keep a safe haven for my family.
As of now I bet you got me wrong

John Titor was right

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by absinthe beginner » Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:15 pm

A lot of the polarization is talk. I deal with people every day that love to talk big, make threats and then fail to act on their threats. Every once in a while I'll get a live one but it is a rare thing. Being the baddest mofo on the internet is one thing, being the real deal is quite another.
Truth. The older I've gotten, the more I've learned that things are rarely as cut and dried, or black and white, as they seem. I've also learned the hard way the supreme importance of restraint, compassion, mercy, and humility, even towards those who may not seem deserving. People (meaning us) need to be able to reach out across the dividing line and really listen, respectfully and non-judgmentally, those those of differing opinions - preferably, face to face over a cup of coffee or a beer. And to try to find common ground and learn from differing perspectives where possible. The ultimate prep is to be ready to meet our Maker with clean hands and a pure soul.

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:59 am

This is an interesting thread. I hope it lasts. I have read all the posts and I am unable to say "NO, that's wrong!"

All I can say is, "Oh GOD, I hope not!

A long time ago I read a book by Thomas W. Chittum. Civil War II - The coming breakup of America. I didn't think much of it other than "...if it went down like that, that is probably what would happen".

Where are all the sane people bugging out to? I want in. :wink:
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by woodsghost » Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:15 am

I was reading some news about the guy who ran people over in NY in the name of terrorism. That will likely become more common as a weapon against crowds and as a weapon of terror. Europe already has a bunch of that. And there have been other examples of people doing that in the US.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by RickOShea » Sat Jun 23, 2018 10:30 am

woodsghost wrote:I was reading some news about the guy who ran people over in NY in the name of terrorism. That will likely become more common as a weapon against crowds and as a weapon of terror. Europe already has a bunch of that. And there have been other examples of people doing that in the US.
Possibly, but that's pretty much a one-and-done kind of thing. I expect a lot of the participants would be inclined to want to live to fight another day....so I wouldn't be surprised if bombings, arson, and Beltway Sniper-like attacks became fairly popular.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by woodsghost » Sat Jun 23, 2018 10:58 am

RickOShea wrote:
woodsghost wrote:I was reading some news about the guy who ran people over in NY in the name of terrorism. That will likely become more common as a weapon against crowds and as a weapon of terror. Europe already has a bunch of that. And there have been other examples of people doing that in the US.
Possibly, but that's pretty much a one-and-done kind of thing. I expect a lot of the participants would be inclined to want to live to fight another day....so I wouldn't be surprised if bombings, arson, and Beltway Sniper-like attacks became fairly popular.
Those are fair points. I do see a European experience with one-way tickets and I see some American experience with folks of that mindset too. Both religiously motivated and politically motivated. I can come up with plenty of examples of the one-way ticket people, but I suspect you are right; most perpetrators of violence like to keep breathing and want to continue on their mission.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by raptor » Sat Jun 23, 2018 12:13 pm

This is an interesting thread as long as the conversation continues along this path it is perfectly acceptable and welcome here. Impact and planning of events like this sans politics is acceptable.

Couple of points from my perspective.
3 years ago the same topic would have been shut down as tinfoil hat material by many of the people posting here. To me, that's a very sobering thought.

I grew up in the 60s. 1968 was a very interesting year with similar turbulence, extremism and violence. We survived that. However past performance does not guarantee future performance.

The echo chambers of social media, contrary to what people initially thought, do not increase communication and understanding but in my opinion the magnify and amplify divisiveness that is present today. Instead of understanding it promotes divisiveness.

Part of the problem is the ease at which people can simply comment and reach so many people without a lot of thought given to the comments.

As for what it would look like it would not be pretty. The violence directed at a certain political figure from my state recently was taken with great umbrage by a large segment of the state. That said obviously common sense prevailed.

Still at what point do keyboard warriors take their proclaimed actions out into the real world? I do not know.
If you live in an urban area it is a very good time to dust off your bug out plan and ensure your preps are in good order.

If you look at the Russian revolution (the 1917 one) and the US Civil War you can draw some insight into such an wvent. The US Civil War was a huge disaster but as civil wars go it not as brutal as many. Not saying it was good, just that for instance there was general amnesty afterwards, not liquidation camps.

That was due to the values held by the winners at that time. These values are now (IMO) deemed obsolete by many extremists on all sides.

BTW if you note I said all sides. One fallacy IMO is that there are just two sides. IMO there are many and most have a competing agenda which have little regard or concern for non-combatants.

Rule #1 In a civil war is leave if at possible.
Rule #2 Non-combatants will not be safe. If you are neutral you have no allies. If you cannot leave pick a side.
Last edited by raptor on Sat Jun 23, 2018 2:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by Stercutus » Sat Jun 23, 2018 1:55 pm

I grew up in the 60s. 1968 was a very interesting year with similar turbulence, extremism and violence. We survived that. However past performance does not guarantee future performance.
I have given that a bit of thought and there area lot of parallels to the 1960s. The big difference is that many of the things that people were angry about were fixable. The draft was disposed of, the CRA was passed then expanded and fine tuned, the Vietnam War ended. These addressed the concerns of the protesters. A number of other things were different as well such as the extensional threat of the nuclear war if Cold War went hot hanging over the West. The vast majority of people in the US had a stronger American identity in the 1960s. These days there are dozens of popular separatist and secession movements led and funded by wealthy immigrants and second generation Americans and supported strongly by foreign powers such as Russia and China. More than half a million people in California signed on to call for a vote to have California leave the US. This is not insignificant.

As for what it would look like it would not be pretty. The violence directed at a certain political figure from my state recently was taken with great umbrage by a large segment of the state. That said obviously common sense prevailed.
Your state is predominately right wing though. I like to think of the ball field shooting as a near miss, despite people being hit and grievously wounded. After the Giffords shooting which by most appearances was an apolitical nut case, members of congress called for a toning down of rhetoric even though it had nothing to do with the shooting. If anything rhetoric increased after that. The ball field shooting WAS a politically motivated mass assassination attempt that but for light shove from the hand of chance might have been much more tragic than it was. If 24 right wing members of congress and some of their staffers and children had been assassinated by a leftist on a baseball field in Virginia I don't think anyone could predict what the fallout would have been. All kinds of bad though I can assure you. The calls for violence against political figures and their families have not toned down much since then either.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by raptor » Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:14 pm

The key concern that I have is that there appears to be a larger percentage of people who simply want to see us burn than in the 1960s.

The actual event we are discussing and the response to it with large numbers of people who were ecstatic, happy and literally dancing in the street over the violence are the ones that should concern anyone.

That and instead of toning down the rhetoric, public figures called for an expansion of such actions. What can possibly go wrong with that?

This brings us back to how do you prepare for such events. What is everyone's thoughts on the matter?

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by Stercutus » Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:38 pm

In a worst case scenario I could withdraw completely from society and live with a modicum of security on my land with internal resources near indefinitely if things got bad enough. We could also move to a different holding in the extremely unlikely event that conflict were brought to my doorstep. The "Wilmer McLean" strategy is does not always work out but it seems solid. Withdrawing does not sit well with me though. I'd certainly work to help provide structure and civil behavior to society as long as possible.

So staying out of the way as much as possible while limiting interactions and visits to areas where there are escalated threats seems most logical to me. But I posted looking for better answers.
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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:48 pm

The key concern that I have is that there appears to be a larger percentage of people who simply want to see us burn than in the 1960s.
Most of the people in my social circle are parents, like me. I don't know of a single person with kids (or without, for that matter) who wants to see a civil war or civil unrest, or who would relish the idea of picking up a gun for any reason other than to go hunting or to shoot paper targets. I do know quite a few people who would be prepared to put a quick end to any threat to their family that shows up in their neighborhood.

I'm more concerned about anarchy and a breakdown of law and order than I am about a civil war. America is more polarized than it's ever been, but I think the vast majority of the population wants nothing to do with resorting to violence to settle our disagreements. There are a lot of angry, inflammatory voices out there, but I don't see many of them ready to act on their bluster and rhetoric. They want someone else to act on their bluster and rhetoric.

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Re: The Coming Civil War

Post by TacAir » Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:57 pm

"The New Civil War" or CWII" - this is getting a lot of exposure in various web places in the last year.

I don't see a "Civil War" per se - that is to say "an armed conflict between well defined groups". Please note my use of the word "Armed". It may not matter....

To be a bit more precise - James Fearon, a scholar of civil wars at Stanford University, defines a civil war as "a violent conflict within a country fought by organized groups that aim to take power at the center or in a region, or to change government policies".

Let me parse this definition :

a violent conflict within a country.
The US has been facing what is, IMO, a "low order" type of ongoing warfare in major cities. I've noted this in many threads over the last couple of years - here and elsewhere.

A slow motion riot might come close to describe the issue set, but things can shift from 'slow-motion' to burning buildings is less than a few hours. This is nothing new, it has been, to some degree, seen in the US since 1948 or even 1943, depending on how you wish to frame the situation.

What is different is both the breadth of the 'conflict' and the sheer number of 'players' in the conflict.
Gang-bangers anyone? They may be the least of your worries.

fought by organized groups -

you can't tell the players without a program.
List of criminal enterprises, gangs and syndicates - check Wikipedia
List of gangs in the United States - again, check Wikipedia - nothing new here, just a lot more, and more splinter groups to make up the mass.

Oh, just in case
Militia organizations in the United States - once more, Wikipedia - fringe lunatic or not, they exist.

and of course
List of designated terrorist groups - Wikipedia is a source of the current players.

feeling lonely? Don't be, there is more to come.

that aim to take power at the center or in a region,
List of active separatist movements in North America - Wikipedia
yup, already here and active for decades

or to change government policies.
The Voter's Self Defense System
yup, also been here for decades - and nothing new. Folks call 'em "Special Interest groups" but they aim to change the Government - no matter if you agree or like/or not.-


So when people talk about the "next Civil War" I ask, what about the one we are in right now?

Maybe it is because I write 'disaster fiction' that I see things differently, can't say. But what I do see is the accelerating of the forces driving the shredding of a once peaceful Nation/society.

I do fear for my children and grandchildren..... All I can really do - is pray.
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