Current Doomsday Clock - 2 Minute Warning

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MPMalloy
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Current Doomsday Clock - 2 Minute Warning

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:53 pm

From ABC (Australia): Doomsday Clock moved ahead 30 seconds, closest to midnight since Cold War
Scientists have moved the symbolic Doomsday Clock ahead by 30 seconds, saying the world is at its closest to annihilation since the height of the Cold War due to world leaders' poor response to threats of nuclear war.

It was the second occasion the timepiece, created by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists as an indicator of the world's susceptibility to cataclysm, was moved forward since the 2016 election of US President Donald Trump.

At two minutes to midnight, the clock is at its closest to catastrophe since 1953, due to dangers of a nuclear holocaust from North Korea's weapons program, US-Russian disputes, South China Sea tensions, and other factors, the Chicago-based group said in a statement.

"Hyperbolic rhetoric and provocative actions on both sides have increased the possibility of nuclear war by accident or miscalculation," the group said of North Korea's nuclear program and the Trump administration's response to it.

Unchecked dangers linked to climate change were another factor scientists cited for moving the clock forward.

An overarching concern was what scientists described as the demise of diplomacy under the Trump administration.

"International diplomacy has been reduced to name-calling, giving it a surrealistic sense of unreality that makes the world security situation ever more threatening," they said.


North Korea dialogue needed for clock rewind

To rewind the clock, scientists recommended Mr Trump refrain from provocative rhetoric regarding North Korea, the two countries open multiple communication channels and the world community seek a cessation of North Korea's nuclear weapon and ballistic missile tests.

Will North Korea end in a Sea of Blood?

What does an obscure opera and a 19th century German philosopher tell us about the North Korean nuclear crisis? Everything.
The bulletin was founded by scientists who helped develop the United States' first atomic weapons.

Its science and security board decides on the clock's hands in consultation with its board of sponsors, which includes 15 Nobel laureates.

When the clock was created in 1947, it was set at seven minutes to midnight.

Last year the clock's hands were pushed forward 30 seconds to their second closest point to midnight — two minutes and 30 seconds — after Mr Trump's statements regarding the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the prospect of actually using them.

In 2016, the clock remained unmoved, its hands staying at three minutes to midnight.

Reuters
The following story was removed due to politics, however, the link remains.

From CNBC: The Doomsday Clock timekeepers say we're now the closest to global annihilation since 1953 Tom DiChristopher CNBC Energy Reporter
Last edited by MPMalloy on Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Current Doomsday Clock - 2 Minute Warning

Post by Stercutus » Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:52 pm

This is all Ian Bremmer shite code words. Ever since he wrongly predicted Trump would not win the nomination, then not win the presidency he has been dogging his heels with this made up gobbley-gook.
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Re: Current Doomsday Clock - 2 Minute Warning

Post by woodsghost » Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:38 pm

While I agree the world is in a tough spot, I only agree with some of the "why."

The specifying of Trump and ignoring of Clinton, Bush, and Obama leads me to be a bit skeptical. While I agree NK is a mess and threat, the roots of that go back about 24 years. Missing that detail makes me cautious about other details which may have been missed.

I think if we look at domestic politics there is even more room for concern. But there are no fires of anarchy outside my office, so there is not much to do about the clock being at 2 minutes.
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Re: Current Doomsday Clock - 2 Minute Warning

Post by raptor » Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:57 pm

We need to avoid the politics of this. IMO we are no closer to Dooms day today than we were last year.

We are not at a Cuban Missile Crisis stage. We are are not even at point equal to the aftermath of Flight KAL 007.

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Re: Current Doomsday Clock - 2 Minute Warning

Post by flybynight » Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:04 pm

I wonder if any contributors of the The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists were in Hawaii about two weeks ago. I don't really understand the significance of the doomsday clock. Looking at a history of the clock changes, it doesn't reflect an accurate chronology of when we actually almost destroyed ourselves. Maybe I'm just not aware of when it's adjusted. Is this a annual date they change the time closer or farther from midnight or a reflection of current events or scientific findings changing the threat level at that time ?
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Re: Current Doomsday Clock - 2 Minute Warning

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:12 pm

Doomsday Clock - Wikipedia

The article provides some background, including changes.

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Re: Current Doomsday Clock - 2 Minute Warning

Post by majorhavoc » Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:59 pm

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists long predates Ian Bremmer. Calling it a "clock" always struck me as a strained metaphor. Brilliant for garnering publicity, pretty crappy for helping people understand the essential message. I know that no one looks at it and believes nuclear armageddon is going to happen in the next two minutes, but I suspect many take the clock metaphor a little too literally. Conceptually, I think it would be more useful to think of it as a barometer of nuclear risk versus a clock. "Doomsday Barometer" just doesn't have the same ring to it, I guess. What about "Doomsday Rectal Thermometer"? That would work nicely.

Interesting that someone mentioned the false missile alarm in Hawaii. There's been some rather pointed commentary about how that unfortunate incident highlights the danger of false alarms and miscalculation at times of heightened international tensions. It's merely an obnoxious nuisance when a civil defense/emergency response agency botches a test and produces a false alarm. It's something altogether different it happens to a national military.

And just to be clear, by heightened international tensions, I mean at any given point of time, regardless of who is in power.

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Re: Current Doomsday Clock - 2 Minute Warning

Post by Stercutus » Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:07 pm

raptor wrote:We need to avoid the politics of this. IMO we are no closer to Dooms day today than we were last year.
Not much to discuss then. The whole thing is a political football, always has been. They are trying to say conditions are the same as they were in 1953, a difficult time in the Cold War. It was the beginning of the Post-Stalin era when the internal squabbling in the USSR took a while for Khruschev to begin his bloody emergence. Both countries conducted testing with H Bombs for the first time, Eisenhower took over and threatened to nuke the Chinese in Korea. In fact a few of Ike's advisors were advising him to drop a few big ones on the enemies of the US on numerous occasions.

I'm thinking that does not really look like what is going on today.
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother

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Re: Current Doomsday Clock - 2 Minute Warning

Post by flybynight » Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:28 pm

raptor wrote:We need to avoid the politics of this. IMO we are no closer to Dooms day today than we were last year.

We are not at a Cuban Missile Crisis stage. We are are not even at point equal to the aftermath of Flight KAL 007.
Neither of which altered the severity of the threat level of the clock. Someone, would think that events such as these would at least cause an uptick threat level . To not, casts doubt on the intentions of those responsible for the adjustment of threat level and negates it's message to political party partisanship
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Re: Current Doomsday Clock - 2 Minute Warning

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:37 pm

Stercutus wrote:
raptor wrote:We need to avoid the politics of this. IMO we are no closer to Dooms day today than we were last year.
Not much to discuss then. The whole thing is a political football, always has been. They are trying to say conditions are the same as they were in 1953, a difficult time in the Cold War. It was the beginning of the Post-Stalin era when the internal squabbling in the USSR took a while for Khruschev to begin his bloody emergence. Both countries conducted testing with H Bombs for the first time, Eisenhower took over and threatened to nuke the Chinese in Korea. In fact a few of Ike's advisors were advising him to drop a few big ones on the enemies of the US on numerous occasions.

I'm thinking that does not really look like what is going on today.
1953 was way before my time. I don't disagree with the above, but I dunno. I am still rather queasy about things today. Definitely uneasy. More than a little concerned.

But then is there anyone among us who isn't concerned or worried about something?

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Re: Current Doomsday Clock - 2 Minute Warning

Post by woodsghost » Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:44 pm

MPMalloy wrote:
Stercutus wrote:
raptor wrote:We need to avoid the politics of this. IMO we are no closer to Dooms day today than we were last year.
Not much to discuss then. The whole thing is a political football, always has been. They are trying to say conditions are the same as they were in 1953, a difficult time in the Cold War. It was the beginning of the Post-Stalin era when the internal squabbling in the USSR took a while for Khruschev to begin his bloody emergence. Both countries conducted testing with H Bombs for the first time, Eisenhower took over and threatened to nuke the Chinese in Korea. In fact a few of Ike's advisors were advising him to drop a few big ones on the enemies of the US on numerous occasions.

I'm thinking that does not really look like what is going on today.
1953 was way before my time. I don't disagree with the above, but I dunno. I am still rather queasy about things today. Definitely uneasy. More than a little concerned.

But then is there anyone among us who isn't concerned or worried about something?
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*Remember: I'm just a guy on the internet :)
*Don't go to stupid places with stupid people & do stupid things.
*Be courteous. Look normal. Be in bed by 10'clock.

“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” -Bilbo Baggins.

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Re: Current Doomsday Clock - 2 Minute Warning

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:45 pm

flybynight wrote:
raptor wrote:We need to avoid the politics of this. IMO we are no closer to Dooms day today than we were last year.

We are not at a Cuban Missile Crisis stage. We are are not even at point equal to the aftermath of Flight KAL 007.
Neither of which altered the severity of the threat level of the clock. Someone, would think that events such as these would at least cause an uptick threat level . To not, casts doubt on the intentions of those responsible for the adjustment of threat level and negates it's message to political party partisanship
The copmmittee in charge of changing the hands on the clock meet once or twice a year. The Cuban Missile Crisis was a brief crisis. KAL 007 was also a brief crisis, although politically, the fallout might have lasted a little longer. I remember the incident, but not the details.

KAL007
Cuban Missile Crisis

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Re: Current Doomsday Clock - 2 Minute Warning

Post by TacAir » Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:19 am

MPMalloy wrote:
flybynight wrote:
raptor wrote:We need to avoid the politics of this. IMO we are no closer to Dooms day today than we were last year.

We are not at a Cuban Missile Crisis stage. We are are not even at point equal to the aftermath of Flight KAL 007.
Neither of which altered the severity of the threat level of the clock. Someone, would think that events such as these would at least cause an uptick threat level . To not, casts doubt on the intentions of those responsible for the adjustment of threat level and negates it's message to political party partisanship
The copmmittee in charge of changing the hands on the clock meet once or twice a year. The Cuban Missile Crisis was a brief crisis. KAL 007 was also a brief crisis, although politically, the fallout might have lasted a little longer. I remember the incident, but not the details.

KAL007
Cuban Missile Crisis
I lived thru both - the Cuban mess as a kid living next to a SAC base and the KAL mess as an active duty member in Alaska.

In the Cuban thing I can remember, quite vividly,, the fallout shelter markets at a couple of locations on Speedway Ave. Now these are called "underground dens' in the Tucson real estate market.

https://redditblog.com/2015/11/28/gimme ... nder-yard/

and

http://tucson.com/gallery/photos-tucson ... 4b791.html

so, ya, a big deal - if you could afford to dig in.
In HS I worked for a pest control company and would perform inspections. I was heading out to a residance when the manager told me to wait. He wanted to come along.

The garage was locked. Built as a simple slab over grade, the manager showed me a piece of plywood in the middle of the floor.
We moved the wood and under was a hole. Two student nurses at the time of the Cuban Crisis used a framing hammer and a children's toy sand bucket/shovel to dig out a 'fallout shelter' under the garage - such was the level of fear and the absolute lack of planning & prep on the of the FedGov, State and local Govt types. People had no clue, no plan and frankly, damned little help. So - yes, real terror for weeks and an extended period of unrest for years after.

The KAL thing was much bluster and the act of a drying Communist govt. Nowhere near the level of fright as seen in the CMC. Dunno, by then maybe folks figured it was all a bluff....

AS far as the stupid clock - it lost any impact or relevance decades ago....
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Re: Current Doomsday Clock - 2 Minute Warning

Post by Halfapint » Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:35 am

I’ve been following the dooms day clock since, we’ll, I really knew what it was. It’s not political, it MAY take political climate as part of what it does. But this isn’t what a lot of people say it is, an attack on this admin. In fact in the previous admin it got just as close.

What this is is taking tensions around the world and putting a face on them, as major havoc said, nuclear borometer doesn’t have the same ring. This is just saying with a nuclear power such as NK tensions internally in the Us, along with other parts of the world we are close to using nukes.
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