Intelligence Gathering

Topics in this category pertain to planning. Discussions include how to prepare yourself, your family and your community for catastrophes and what you plan to do when they hit you.

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RonnyRonin
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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by RonnyRonin » Sun May 15, 2016 12:29 pm

I had always assumed that the tin-foil doom politics (I'm stealing that, best catch all description I've heard) was pretty much inseparable from the topic, and even prepping as a whole, with ZS being one of the only places you can reliably avoid it.

I try to skim many of the FOM type blogs and sites periodically (https://mountainguerrilla.wordpress.com/ was one of my favorites, he now writes for FOM so I don't expect as much content) to brush up on my SUT theory (I don't have a SU so the T might as well be Theory), and there in lies the issue. As someone not actively expecting the second american Civil War, a Chinese/Korean/Russian/Cuban invasion force, or the PAW in general, I only have a casual interest in such things and would never: 1) study it intensively B) write about it cohesively or with much confidence. I think it more or less takes a capital "b" Believer to put that kind of effort in, so I kind of accept it and try to kick my filter up a notch.

Gov/Professional sources can provide a lot of the same information, but seems to take a lot more effort on the part of the reader to try to convert it to something usable for a PAW clan.
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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by teotwaki » Sun May 15, 2016 12:56 pm

My only real concern is the aftermath of the much ballyhooed Big One (quake) in California and the ensuing lawlessness until martial law kicks in. Hence the interest in patrolling and intel. Having the supplies to bug in for an extended time is important but I don't see the need to grow crops. PAW all across the United States is a non-issue.
My adventures and pictures are on my blog http://suntothenorth.blogspot.com

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by teotwaki » Mon May 16, 2016 11:32 am

We've chatted a lot about patrolling and intel gathering and we can't wait until the zombies arrive to start the process of planning escape routes. Yesterday I spent a few hours on my bike exploring a route that parallels a typical dry, concrete lined SoCal "river". The 96 mile river is millions of years old and has been the source of devastating floods in the 1700's, 1862 and 1938. After the last flood a series of dams and other flood control measures turned sections of the river into a long ribbon of concrete that is difficult to distinguish from the many freeways that cut across the urban landscape. All of the photos of the area are from the internet but are exactly what I saw.

Image

During this trip I wanted to obtain a hands-on sense of the access points, drivability/walkability and the extent of the bums/squatter/illegal alien/homeless encampments. I was also interested in seeing the remnants of old railroad bridges and smaller pedestrian/bicycle bridges

Image

Image

The various encampments ranged from small tents hidden away to large groups of rough looking twenty somethings lurking in drainage outlets.

Image
Image

Where exactly does this guy "find" so many bicycles?
Image
Image

This route has also seen serial killers prey on the homeless and is doubtless a hub of thieves, drug addicts and other scofflaws.

Image
Image

Much further north of my foray the river has concrete embankments but the bed is a little more natural and egrets, herons and a bald eagle are regular visitors.

Image

There are even spots where fishing is feasible
Image

Despite the flood control measures there have been overflows in recent times due to the failure of man's engineering efforts so the river is also a potential threat to my home.

Image

Fast flooding prompts many rescues of the unwary and more of them are from the illegal encampments.
Image

To me the biggest issue is the current level of crime and what might happen if the police are too busy (or gone) to watch over this river path.
2012 note on a bike forum:

"Yesterday about 2:30 PM I was riding the River path from the ocean to the intrastate Hwy and back. I made good time and turned back to the beach to meet my wife. I was buzzing along at about 14 mph and if you ever have ridden this path you know that about every mile there is an auto overpass over the river and a underpass for bikes below the bridge. As I was rolling down the the grade to the 1st street underpass I noticed three punks standing along the side of the path with an old bike. Not really notable lots of people are always along the trail.

They tossed the junker bike right in front of me as I was rolling pretty good on the downhill and over the bars I went. Then two of the thugs started kicking and punching me while I was down letting the third one who was also showing a knife make off with the bike. They got my new Madone 5.2, my cell phone and bike bag. I got bumps, scrapes, and a jammed wrist, bike helmets take kicks pretty good.

Watch where you ride, I certainly was not in an area not well travelled by cyclist. The thugs just had a spot were they were hidden from view by the overpass and could see up and down the trail, they also had a escape route to get away with the bike. The Police were super and tried to find bike using my iPhone and helicopter. They told me that this was the second mugging involving an expensive bike in the last 16 hours
"

Several gang territories are intersected by the river so it is likely that they might build choke points to attack people who are using this route to bypass choked city streets. The groups of homeless people are also likely to get into the act. At the moment it seems that this river route might only be viable for a heavily armed party with the means to take out any groups attempting to block their way. Either way, I am glad that I got out to obtain a first hand look at the route.
My adventures and pictures are on my blog http://suntothenorth.blogspot.com

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by Asymetryczna » Mon May 16, 2016 11:42 am

Teo- I recommend creating a risk management chart to go along with your MCOO. IF - THAN statements accompanied by triggers with responses. The hardest part might not be deciding to leave but having to decide to go alone. I do not think there is a single source for the information you seek and so much of data gathering requires power. Weather, terrain, and major news happenings are available almost constantly but there is nothing that truly tells YOU what YOUR danger is. Even in the real time power cells people are using every possible source and trying to put it all together while finding it is nearly impossible to do. Some group came here and created their own air force in a single morning with devastating effects. Had it not happened I would assume it was a fairly far-fetched plan.

I hope this helps you some. I have found that:
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It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see.
Henry David Thoreau

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by teotwaki » Mon May 16, 2016 1:58 pm

Asymetryczna: I like that suggestion! I have a good graphic of the river's route for the MCOO and I was going to note key terrain features, restricted areas, avenues of approach, potential engagement areas and estimates of "OPFORs" (thugs, gangs, etc.). Maybe I'll number those points on the route sequentially by mileage and tie them into a short risk assessment for each.
My adventures and pictures are on my blog http://suntothenorth.blogspot.com

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by Asymetryczna » Mon May 16, 2016 2:56 pm

Yep. It's something you can truly obsess over as well. Its why someone created the spreadsheet. I absolutely love listening to a good baseball game on the radio. The really good announcers will allow nothing much more than a slight pause without introducing some gem like, "He is batting .294 with 9 doubles this season when he is facing a right handed pitcher in the bottom of the 6th with no one on and the temperature hovering between 62 and 66 degrees and multiple American Airlines flights of 105 passengers are more are circling the airport. They are simply applying more and more filters. You might get to the point where you work it constantly in your head - heavy, heavy rain means route green, red, orange and yellow are closed down and this means route blue and black are overwhelmed. This leaves only route brown and I have a note to add 15 minutes when I take this route and it rains. Statisticians in the first place and planners in the latter do this constantly and often place the plan on the shelf when the situation lessens in intensity. It's easy to study big plans like Operation Unthinkable or Market Garden and then apply the big blue arrow principles while whittling it down for use by your team. Oh, and working it constantly in your head is a good thing. Know what you can know and know what you don't know. Know what you have to do and what you cannot do. If you wanted to truly obsess you would create an active map online and build filters for every significant event that threatens (crime, weather, deadly virus) and have it display filters of distance and time. You could plan key drivers for route selection as well, such as speed, not observable, and safest, or truck, bike and walk.

Pay special attention to armed robbery and murder pins. The people (places) that would do these crimes do not need to see the Jolly Roger flying everywhere to try a little swashbuckling.

Oh, and plan so that if your life depends on it then it will mostly fall apart. In other words, make it's purpose clear. "This plan is to allow me to make a timely decision on when to leave." "This plan is to get me safely from here to there." People can adjust to all contingencies when their purpose is clear.
It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see.
Henry David Thoreau

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by teotwaki » Mon May 16, 2016 3:13 pm

Asymetryczna wrote:Oh, and plan so that if your life depends on it then it will mostly fall apart.
In a different wording: No plan survives contact with the enemy :mrgreen:
My adventures and pictures are on my blog http://suntothenorth.blogspot.com

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by Asymetryczna » Mon May 16, 2016 3:35 pm

Yes. Mind meld. There was a quote I saved once that I thought of earlier and then had to go find. It's from the Fight Club author:

“There are only patterns, patterns on top of patterns, patterns that affect other patterns. Patterns hidden by patterns. Patterns within patterns.
If you watch close, history does nothing but repeat itself. What we call chaos is just patterns we haven't recognized. What we call random is just patterns we can't decipher. what we can't understand we call nonsense. What we can't read we call gibberish.
There is no free will.
There are no variables.”

~ Chuck Palahniuk, Survivor

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It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see.
Henry David Thoreau

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by teotwaki » Mon May 16, 2016 4:39 pm

But you mixed Doctor Strange with Fight Club, LOL

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My adventures and pictures are on my blog http://suntothenorth.blogspot.com

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by teotwaki » Mon May 16, 2016 5:46 pm

Image
My adventures and pictures are on my blog http://suntothenorth.blogspot.com

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by Asymetryczna » Mon May 16, 2016 6:33 pm

I recognized the actor from the Alan Turing story but I don't know Dr. Strange. The graphic reminds me of a favorite koan about throwing stuff on the ground. If you like, you can also create a decision tree so that everyone sees your logic without all of the data that would support it. I am posting an example which should help simplify things when you are under stress. Thanks for the interesting threads.
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It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see.
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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by flybynight » Mon May 16, 2016 9:39 pm

teotwaki wrote:We've chatted a lot about patrolling and intel gathering and we can't wait until the zombies arrive to start the process of planning escape routes. Yesterday I spent a few hours on my bike exploring a route that parallels a typical dry, concrete lined SoCal "river". The 96 mile river is millions of years old and has been the source of devastating floods in the 1700's, 1862 and 1938. After the last flood a series of dams and other flood control measures turned sections of the river into a long ribbon of concrete that is difficult to distinguish from the many freeways that cut across the urban landscape. All of the photos of the area are from the internet but are exactly what I saw.

Image

During this trip I wanted to obtain a hands-on sense of the access points, drivability/walkability and the extent of the bums/squatter/illegal alien/homeless encampments. I was also interested in seeing the remnants of old railroad bridges and smaller pedestrian/bicycle bridges

Image

Image

The various encampments ranged from small tents hidden away to large groups of rough looking twenty somethings lurking in drainage outlets.

Image
Image

Where exactly does this guy "find" so many bicycles?
Image
Image

This route has also seen serial killers prey on the homeless and is doubtless a hub of thieves, drug addicts and other scofflaws.

Image
Image

Much further north of my foray the river has concrete embankments but the bed is a little more natural and egrets, herons and a bald eagle are regular visitors.

Image

There are even spots where fishing is feasible
Image

Despite the flood control measures there have been overflows in recent times due to the failure of man's engineering efforts so the river is also a potential threat to my home.

Image

Fast flooding prompts many rescues of the unwary and more of them are from the illegal encampments.
Image

To me the biggest issue is the current level of crime and what might happen if the police are too busy (or gone) to watch over this river path.
2012 note on a bike forum:

"Yesterday about 2:30 PM I was riding the River path from the ocean to the intrastate Hwy and back. I made good time and turned back to the beach to meet my wife. I was buzzing along at about 14 mph and if you ever have ridden this path you know that about every mile there is an auto overpass over the river and a underpass for bikes below the bridge. As I was rolling down the the grade to the 1st street underpass I noticed three punks standing along the side of the path with an old bike. Not really notable lots of people are always along the trail.

They tossed the junker bike right in front of me as I was rolling pretty good on the downhill and over the bars I went. Then two of the thugs started kicking and punching me while I was down letting the third one who was also showing a knife make off with the bike. They got my new Madone 5.2, my cell phone and bike bag. I got bumps, scrapes, and a jammed wrist, bike helmets take kicks pretty good.

Watch where you ride, I certainly was not in an area not well travelled by cyclist. The thugs just had a spot were they were hidden from view by the overpass and could see up and down the trail, they also had a escape route to get away with the bike. The Police were super and tried to find bike using my iPhone and helicopter. They told me that this was the second mugging involving an expensive bike in the last 16 hours
"

Several gang territories are intersected by the river so it is likely that they might build choke points to attack people who are using this route to bypass choked city streets. The groups of homeless people are also likely to get into the act. At the moment it seems that this river route might only be viable for a heavily armed party with the means to take out any groups attempting to block their way. Either way, I am glad that I got out to obtain a first hand look at the route.
Don't rely on the rivers in so cal. It doesn't take a hundred year flood to turn them into raging torrents while completely within their design parameters . Cali has been in drought , but when a more normal rain pattern returns you will see these concrete rivers quickly become the annual death traps they historically have been. Another thing, forty years ago it was common idea among my friends and I that if a nuclear war was imminent, the river beds were the prime escape route. But kinda like the Walmart/zombie apocalypse plan , everyone had that idea. And the only thing changed from when me and my friends talked about what a cool idea it was, more people moved there. Just saying :crazy:
As of now I bet you got me wrong

John Titor was right

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by teotwaki » Mon May 16, 2016 10:35 pm

Hi flybynight!

I don't disagree with you but my plan is to bug in so I would not be joining the hordes of folks walking to the mountains to go hunting, lol. I am aware of the flooding and covered that in my post but there are a series of dams that would have to be removed in order for any sort of flash flood to make its way 96 miles from the headwaters. Massive flooding did happen in 1938 and that is why all of the flood control projects castrated the wild river into a series of controlled releases.
My adventures and pictures are on my blog http://suntothenorth.blogspot.com

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by flybynight » Mon May 16, 2016 11:19 pm

teotwaki wrote:Hi flybynight!

I don't disagree with you but my plan is to bug in so I would not be joining the hordes of folks walking to the mountains to go hunting, lol. I am aware of the flooding and covered that in my post but there are a series of dams that would have to be removed in order for any sort of flash flood to make its way 96 miles from the headwaters. Massive flooding did happen in 1938 and that is why all of the flood control projects castrated the wild river into a series of controlled releases.
My bad.. I obvioußly mis construed what you meant when you mentioned possible escape routes and spending severàl hours checking out à route paralleling th3 million year old river :D :D
As of now I bet you got me wrong

John Titor was right

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Tue May 17, 2016 12:01 am

teotwaki wrote:We've chatted a lot about patrolling and intel gathering and we can't wait until the zombies arrive to start the process of planning escape routes. Yesterday I spent a few hours on my bike exploring a route that parallels a typical dry, concrete lined SoCal "river". The 96 mile river is millions of years old and has been the source of devastating floods in the 1700's, 1862 and 1938. After the last flood a series of dams and other flood control measures turned sections of the river into a long ribbon of concrete that is difficult to distinguish from the many freeways that cut across the urban landscape. All of the photos of the area are from the internet but are exactly what I saw.

Image

During this trip I wanted to obtain a hands-on sense of the access points, drivability/walkability and the extent of the bums/squatter/illegal alien/homeless encampments. I was also interested in seeing the remnants of old railroad bridges and smaller pedestrian/bicycle bridges

Image

Image

The various encampments ranged from small tents hidden away to large groups of rough looking twenty somethings lurking in drainage outlets.

Image
Image

Where exactly does this guy "find" so many bicycles?
Image
Image

This route has also seen serial killers prey on the homeless and is doubtless a hub of thieves, drug addicts and other scofflaws.

Image
Image

Much further north of my foray the river has concrete embankments but the bed is a little more natural and egrets, herons and a bald eagle are regular visitors.

Image

There are even spots where fishing is feasible
Image

Despite the flood control measures there have been overflows in recent times due to the failure of man's engineering efforts so the river is also a potential threat to my home.

Image

Fast flooding prompts many rescues of the unwary and more of them are from the illegal encampments.
Image

To me the biggest issue is the current level of crime and what might happen if the police are too busy (or gone) to watch over this river path.
2012 note on a bike forum:

"Yesterday about 2:30 PM I was riding the River path from the ocean to the intrastate Hwy and back. I made good time and turned back to the beach to meet my wife. I was buzzing along at about 14 mph and if you ever have ridden this path you know that about every mile there is an auto overpass over the river and a underpass for bikes below the bridge. As I was rolling down the the grade to the 1st street underpass I noticed three punks standing along the side of the path with an old bike. Not really notable lots of people are always along the trail.

They tossed the junker bike right in front of me as I was rolling pretty good on the downhill and over the bars I went. Then two of the thugs started kicking and punching me while I was down letting the third one who was also showing a knife make off with the bike. They got my new Madone 5.2, my cell phone and bike bag. I got bumps, scrapes, and a jammed wrist, bike helmets take kicks pretty good.

Watch where you ride, I certainly was not in an area not well travelled by cyclist. The thugs just had a spot were they were hidden from view by the overpass and could see up and down the trail, they also had a escape route to get away with the bike. The Police were super and tried to find bike using my iPhone and helicopter. They told me that this was the second mugging involving an expensive bike in the last 16 hours
"

Several gang territories are intersected by the river so it is likely that they might build choke points to attack people who are using this route to bypass choked city streets. The groups of homeless people are also likely to get into the act. At the moment it seems that this river route might only be viable for a heavily armed party with the means to take out any groups attempting to block their way. Either way, I am glad that I got out to obtain a first hand look at the route.
This is a fantastic example of a good area overview, and not nearly enough people are doing that kind of evaluation before constructing a plan.
Opinions subject to change in light of new information.
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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by teotwaki » Tue May 17, 2016 12:54 pm

Thanks Doctorr Fabulous!!
___________________________

As part of this area study I became interested in seismic hazards to the the two major upstream dams, one built in 1941 and one in 2000. The newer dam is rated to a quake of 8.0 and the downriver older dam is informally rated to withstand a likely 6.8 and possibly an 8.0. What was fascinating was to learn of an event called a seiche.

"Seiches are waves in lakes, bays, or gulfs that result from seismic events (or atmospheric disturbances). The dam periodically stores water behind the dam. A seismic seiche is possible behind the dam particularly if the earthquake occurs along the closest fault zone segment located in dam's basin. In the extreme case, water could overtop the dam"

Think of it as quake sloshing! :lol:

Info related to water storage in the dams:

"The 2005 rainstorms caused the river to burst its banks, raising the reservoirs of the two dams to record levels. Further downstream, more than 3,000 people (out of 3.5M residents) were evacuated in anticipation of a dam failure. The river reached its third highest peak since 1938. The older dam held, but has since been the focus of a $400 million project to improve its flood-control capacity."

Additional detail:

"2005: Heavy rain hammered Southern California through much of January. This time, for a few brief days, the Santa Ana River was once again feared. On January 14, workers spotted a small leak on the 1941 era Dam. The dam had been under construction as part of an expansion project, and growing damp spots were found on the front of the dam in an area where new outlet gates were being built. Nearby city officials evacuated over 800 homes below the dam while the U.S. Corp of Engineers inspected the dam and repaired the damage.

The leak occurred because of near record-high water levels in the reservoir behind the dam. The water spilled over a temporary construction dam built behind the permanent dam, and filled the construction site. Officials released water at a rate of 10,000 cubic feet per second, up from the normal 200-500 cubic feet per second, in an effort to lower water levels in the reservoir. When the above Ikonos image was taken on January 18, 2005, four days later, water flowing from the dam through the river still looked rough. The river below the dam is still swollen, running into the trees at the lower left corner of the image. (The flooded river banks are easier to see in the high-resolution image provided in the link above.) Water levels in the dam behind the reservoir may still be high. Trees that are surrounded by a pool of grey-green water may be part of a lake-side park, but they could also be part of the upriver area, a large artificial wetland that covers 2,150 acres behind the dam."

Image

That explained the recent construction activity at the older dam and also work to increase the capacity of the flood channel below the dam from 5,000 to 30,000 cu ft. They have additional operations to remove sediment build up in the river channel much further downriver. The 30,000 cu ft is a peak flow well beyond the normal release rates of the dam and I'd like to see how well the downriver channel can handle that flow. Additional searches will ensue.



It would be one of those Perfect Storm events where the region has heavy rainfall, both dams are full AND we have a quake of magnitude 8.0+ :shock:
I will update my evacuation plans and weather event monitoring. Luckily I have very high ground within walking distance if only foot travel was possible.
My adventures and pictures are on my blog http://suntothenorth.blogspot.com

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by teotwaki » Wed May 18, 2016 12:03 pm

Here are some images of what I view as one drawback of the river trail route: the underpasses

Image

Image

Image

Image

In most cases there is a path that allows one to go over the bridge but I will have to catalog a few of the locations that do not and check for alternate routes to bypass them. A lot of the homeless people have built camps in the high part of the underpass.
Last edited by teotwaki on Thu May 19, 2016 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Thu May 19, 2016 6:15 am

Keep a pair of water wings in your bike kit!
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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by teotwaki » Thu May 19, 2016 9:43 am

Doctorr Fabulous wrote:Keep a pair of water wings in your bike kit!
Be careful what you ask for! :lol:

T.R.A.P.

Tactical Re-Floatation Assault Pack

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Image
http://www.specialforces.com/trap-tacti ... sault-pack

TRAP™ is a unique back pack with built in floatation serving as an emergency life saving device and as a device to negotiate and navigate water obstacles.

Water obstacles are no longer a problem
The TRAP assault pack was designed to use as a regular assualt pack but with the added capability of floatation to give you the ability to negotiate water obstacles at a moment’s notice or in an emergency.

We think you will find the pack itself organized, well thought out and more comfortable than most, especially when carrying heavy loads. The bladder when stowed is set back so it does not interfere with your arms or cause irritation and is easily restowed after use. The bungee retention system at the top, allows you to easily attach things like a shooting mat for example.

Lift capacity
We have tested the pack extensively and the more we used it, the more we liked it. We found the lift capacity using a 68 gram CO2 cartridge to be approximately 95lbs at shallow depths. Lift will vary from contents/packing, size of individual, depth, altitude and temperature. We performed these tests repeatedly: Pool on a cool day, 120lbs weight mixed with cloth rags to give bulk with 225lb individual, 10ft deep, floated to surface rapidly, when we tested with more weight it began to lose it's buoyancy. Ocean water temp 68 degrees approximately, 25ft deep with 65lbs of dead weight with 175lb muscular individual, it floated to surface rapidly.

We recommend if working around deep water order the dual detonator configuration using two 68 gram CO2 cartridges, over pressure valve will prevent damage to the bladder from over filling.

Uses:
• 3 day assault back pack
• Emergency floatation device
• Designed to negotiate and navigate water obstacles

Features:
• Halkey® detonator uses ½” thread 68 gram CO2 cartridge
• Halkey oral valve (inflator)
• Over pressure valve to adjust buoyancy
• Internal deployable bladder with zipped cover
• Adjustable shoulder straps with quick disconnect
• Sternum strap
• Cumberbund waist strap
• 2 main compartments with zippered access
• 2 accessory pouches with Molle attachments (opitional)
• Molle webbing on exterior of pack
• Carrying handle
• Organizer pocket
• Bungee retention cords
• External hydration bladder compartment
• Inside pack – distribution weight organizer pouch
• Drain grommets for all compartments
• Main compartment zippered at bottom opens mesh drainage

Floatation module is attached by MOLLE and can be used separate from pack itself. We recommend you take the time to familiarize yourself with TRAP just like you would with any new piece of gear. Become familiar with the pack harness assembly, detonator cord, overpressure release valve and oral inflator. Practice simulated detonations.

Note: Always give vigorous pull so detonator will fully puncture cartridge allowing for maximum flow. Practice quick emergency removal of pack.

Operational Checks:
Test bladder for leaks by orally inflating bladder, this will also allow you to become familiar with what to expect when inflated.

Detonator - Make sure cartridge is fully charged by
checking cap for puncture hole.
- Make sure cartridge is fully screwed in.
- Make sure detonator chord is free from obstructions.

Specifications:
Weight: With cartridge 6.90lbs
Lift: Approximately 95lbs at 20ft deep
Dimensions pack: 22” x 17” x 9”
Capacity: 3500 cubic inches

Note: We can adjust bladder sizes for mission specific applications/scenarios.

Materials:
• 1000 Denier Cordura® urethane coated 1.75oz, nylon
mesh 18oz
• Plastic Fastex® ITW® Nexus® buckles and connectors
• YKK® zippers
• 100% nylon webbing
• Bladder: 200 Denier double urethane coated nylon
My adventures and pictures are on my blog http://suntothenorth.blogspot.com

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flybynight
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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by flybynight » Thu May 19, 2016 11:44 am

Just be careful and have multiple alternate routes. Just because it's not jumping it's banks doesn't make it not dangerous.
https://youtu.be/2irdcVWyj-w
. Personally, when I lived there I had come to the conclusion that if we HAD to escape, the ocean was the safest/quickest way. But then again, I lived in a beach city.
Another thing I was wondering. If taking the rivers east, what's your destination? That's a whole lot of desert thata way . You know there's wild pigs in sections of the Santa Ana river?
As of now I bet you got me wrong

John Titor was right

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teotwaki
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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by teotwaki » Thu May 19, 2016 1:48 pm

flybynight wrote:Just be careful and have multiple alternate routes. Just because it's not jumping it's banks doesn't make it not dangerous.
http://youtu.be/2irdcVWyj-w
. Personally, when I lived there I had come to the conclusion that if we HAD to escape, the ocean was the safest/quickest way. But then again, I lived in a beach city.
Another thing I was wondering. If taking the rivers east, what's your destination? That's a whole lot of desert thata way . You know there's wild pigs in sections of the Santa Ana river?
I'll parse out my thoughts and responses as you've touched on a number of interesting things.

The 96+ miles of the river do not cross the desert and the river terminates in a National Forest. If I cross the desert it won't be on foot and the mountains have to be crossed first. If you peek at my blog you can see I am familiar with the desert out past the mountains.

The river is rarely filled with any running water let alone raging full. Therefore swimming, swift water rescue and all that are very minor factors and with so many bridges there is no call for me to get wet. Mostly the water is trapped in settling ponds, surrounded by dikes. The bike path is wide enough for large trucks to drive and there are bridge over-crossings as well as underpasses. Gates, locks, barriers and armed people will be the biggest problem.

Escaping on the ocean requires a boat capable of coastal travel. I don't own one and won't steal one. I have some official connections to water transport but if I go near those vessels during an emergency I'll be dragooned for the duration. :(

When you lived in that beach city did you know that the mouth of the river was not originally at the ocean? Instead it used to turn east and feed into Newport Bay. In 1920 the Bitter Point Dam was the end of that.

The pigs are kind of a cool thing and have been spotted in the river bed as they roam the overall Hidden Valley Wildlife Area in Jurupa, about 4 sq. miles. They are hunted legally in the Cleveland National Forest and the San Bernardino National Forest. In a long term emergency they'd be hunted out in the river area and eventually the forested areas so I guess trigger happy and hungry hunters are more of a threat than the four-legged pigs. :lol:

Did you know there is a bald eagle that visits the river area?

Image

These videos give better intel of the river's terrain. That inches-deep water in the first video dried up months ago in February.



Jump to minute 3


Fixed the YouTube link you provided! Unfortunately this 2010 video sensationalizes a rare occurrence at the river that only lasts for hours and is a human-controlled event based on water releases from the two dams. The real PITA would be a high rain event and a magnitude 8 quake that strikes at that time and causes flooding on top of quake damage to my house.

My adventures and pictures are on my blog http://suntothenorth.blogspot.com

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by flybynight » Thu May 19, 2016 3:51 pm

YEA not as rare as you think. You've had ten years of drought remember. We used to own a cabin up in the San Bernadino mtns. We would drive along that river on the 91 once or more per month all year. Can't tell you how many times I would marvel at the sight of that river raging and it had not even rained in L A area.
Seen your blog. I'm not inferring you 're not a experienced outdoorsman. But you begin your treks after preparing adequately.
In the scenario of you bugging out , you will be leaving danger into danger . More than likely with less than normal supplies or maybe the means to transport it, Have a back up plan. And a back up plan for the back up plan when it goes to hell. Better yet , just move out of California, It's a train wreck in slow motion. Kinda like sitting in a gun free zone across the street from crackhouse r us. :wink:

edited to add. Just read a news story that the head of the USGS in California stated the San Andreas is locked, loaded and ready to roll. So cal has a big red target painted on it and ole San Andreas is mean hateful biatch
As of now I bet you got me wrong

John Titor was right

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by teotwaki » Thu May 19, 2016 8:59 pm

flybynight wrote:YEA not as rare as you think. You've had ten years of drought remember. We used to own a cabin up in the San Bernadino mtns. We would drive along that river on the 91 once or more per month all year. Can't tell you how many times I would marvel at the sight of that river raging and it had not even rained in L A area.
Seen your blog. I'm not inferring you 're not a experienced outdoorsman. But you begin your treks after preparing adequately.
In the scenario of you bugging out , you will be leaving danger into danger . More than likely with less than normal supplies or maybe the means to transport it, Have a back up plan. And a back up plan for the back up plan when it goes to hell. Better yet , just move out of California, It's a train wreck in slow motion. Kinda like sitting in a gun free zone across the street from crackhouse r us. :wink:

edited to add. Just read a news story that the head of the USGS in California stated the San Andreas is locked, loaded and ready to roll. So cal has a big red target painted on it and ole San Andreas is mean hateful biatch
Not just that I think that it is rare but the rainfall records bear it out. I will cite some peak annual rainfall from the Santa Ana records as the years in between these were 10" or less. Full records are all online.

1977-78 29"
1979-80 21"
1982-83 26"
1992-93 24"
1994-95 24"
1997-98 30"
2004-05 30"
2009-10 17"
2010-11 22"
2011-12 8"
2012-13 6"
2013-14 4"
2014-15 9"

In the year 2000 the new dam went online and provided protection for the 1941 dam. The data says that across 35 years that there have been just 8 times that annual rainfall exceeded 16". After 2000 the new dam limited the inflow to the old dam and any large flows downstream were controlled. The public records will correlate with whatever you saw driving along as being peak exceptions and not the rule. Previous peaks have not overwhelmed the paths on the banks so the river can be raging full and it is of no consequence. It may not have rained in the LA area but the watershed for the river is the San Bernardino Mountains which are 60 miles away from LA. The mountains get rain all the time when LA and OC don't get a drop.

Okay, as to preparedness it is not as if I don't have the gear ready to leave right this moment. I really don't know where the assumptions come from such as
flybynight wrote:More than likely with less than normal supplies or maybe the means to transport it,
Based on what?? The trailer is always packed with gear, water and gas. Lots of transport options and gear ready to go at home. I have prepared modules in the garage to load into any car but the 4Runner is the primary BOV (viewtopic.php?f=45&t=79045). Example of a load out bag:
teotwaki wrote:Finally had a chance to build a loadout bag anyone in the family can handle. Based on a wheeled Force Protector Gear FOR 65 Deployer that can be used at home or tossed in a car

Contents:

1 box of Mountain House Meals, 13 pouches, claims 32 servings
1 JetBoil Sumo stove system
6 Iso-butane canisters, 450gr each
1 Zip Lock of matches and Bic lighters for backup stove lighting
1 MSR stainless steel 1L pot
1 LifeStraw 12 Liter water purifier system
1 Zip Lock of MRE spoons
1 Nalgen 3L kantene
2 Sierra cups in stainless steel
4 FlexiFlasks, 1L each
1 Lowe Alpine 2.5L collapsible water container

May add in plastic bowls, tea and coffee since there is some room left in the duffle.
Here is an entire thread on my latest trauma bag: viewtopic.php?f=43&t=117675

If anything the blog shows that I am methodical in my preps and have the right gear for a 3 week climb of Denali, rappelling down canyons or traversing the steep canyons of the Inyos. I am totally mystified as to where your information is coming from but the assumptions are way off base. Can you offer anything specific on actual patrolling or intel gathering?
My adventures and pictures are on my blog http://suntothenorth.blogspot.com

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Re: Intelligence Gathering and Patrolling

Post by flybynight » Thu May 19, 2016 10:02 pm

Nope, You seem well prepared. Forget I mentioned anything. Good luck
As of now I bet you got me wrong

John Titor was right

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