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 Post subject: Intelligence Gathering
PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 3:44 pm 
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Due to some recommendations from other ZS'ers I've been reading at this blog: Alamance Rangers (https://alamancerangers.wordpress.com/) as well as a couple of others.

Two related topics of which recon patrolling is a subset of Intelligence gathering.

I've been reading a lot at Alamance Rangers within the context of bugging in. What caught my eye was the advice that we need to be aware of the threats to our BIL. Two of them can be gangs and low income (massively unprepared) citizens. Some data that I have found shows me what gangs are prevalent and also that 150,000 to 200,000 people in my county (pop. 3.2M) receive some form of food stamps/SNAP/EBT.

The Gangs are the more dangerous of the two. Looking back at recent news articles LEOs have at least one major sweep a year arresting 100+ at a time

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A number of the gangs have names with the number 13 as part of it. The 13 stands for the 13th letter of the alphabet, which is M..... this denotes their alliance with the "M", or "emay", which is supposed to be shorthand for the Mexican Mafia. Police union President John Franks said California that Prop. 47 has created a “perfect storm.” Newly released rival gang members, he said, “walk into each other and no challenge goes unanswered … the answer is always going to be violence.” From January first there were 55 shootings in the next 55 days.

The initiative Prop 47, passed in 2014, reclassified some nonviolent felonies, including those for drug and theft crimes, to misdemeanors, which can lead to earlier releases from jail.

White supremacy gangs are also represented but are not territorial. Two are NAZI LOWRIDERS and PEN1 (Public Enemy Number 1). Other small skinhead groups will also be seen around the county.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 8:01 pm 
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Can't really add anything to this discussion as militias are illegal in Alabama. I will say that their mission of "Commitment to Community" is so open ended it could mean anything. As always use caution when dealing with groups that train with firearms. It only takes one idiot to put a hole through your knee with an ND.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:25 pm 
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Stercutus wrote:
Can't really add anything to this discussion as militias are illegal in Alabama. I will say that their mission of "Commitment to Community" is so open ended it could mean anything. As always use caution when dealing with groups that train with firearms. It only takes one idiot to put a hole through your knee with an ND.


I'm definitely not looking to form a militia or enlist in one.. Mainly I am looking at figuring out what my risks are due to low-lifes wanting to raid my BIL.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2016 7:29 am 
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teotwaki wrote:
White supremacy gangs are also represented but are not territorial. Two are NAZI LOWRIDERS and PEN1 (Public Enemy Number 1). Other small skinhead groups will also be seen around the county.


Keep in mind "Not territorial" today does not imply "Not territorial" later. I'd suggest this blog too https://mountainguerrilla.wordpress.com/ I've read his two books and they're both excellent. I have book #3 on pre-order. I've been trying to keep an eye on the white supremacy groups, as they seem to be getting more organized and active the past couple of years.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:32 am 
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phil_in_cs wrote:
teotwaki wrote:
White supremacy gangs are also represented but are not territorial. Two are NAZI LOWRIDERS and PEN1 (Public Enemy Number 1). Other small skinhead groups will also be seen around the county.


Keep in mind "Not territorial" today does not imply "Not territorial" later. I'd suggest this blog too https://mountainguerrilla.wordpress.com/ I've read his two books and they're both excellent. I have book #3 on pre-order. I've been trying to keep an eye on the white supremacy groups, as they seem to be getting more organized and active the past couple of years.


Good point. Status quo for the skinheads could change in a disaster scenario, especially if the presence of LEOs is diminished.



I did run across Mountain Guerrilla's blog and am still reading a lot of the posts. Thanks for bringing it up!

Some detail on the NLR gang: http://archive.adl.org/learn/ext_us/nlr.html

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:38 pm 
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Additional info from numerous reviews of the book "Doomsday Marauders"

____________________________________________________________________________

The premise of the book itself, “To hell with prepping, become a marauder and simply TAKE what you need from others!” really went against the grain for several reasons:

"The encouraging of taking by brute force the lawfully owned property of others denies every single principle the Republic was founded upon.
The presentation is strictly at the base level of human existence: The Law of the Jungle
The presentation contradicts itself with the author’s contention that rape is not permissible, but murder can be at times, but the taking of life while taking property lawfully owned by others is ok, if you think it’s necessary to supply your own team or send a ‘message’ to the location you’re attempting to extract ‘tribute’ from.
The book does not provide for any principles other than, ‘become an animal (except where the author’s particular values are in conflict) and live, or go home and become my or others prey.’ He sets the stage describing his belief that no defended location has ever held throughout history. In many ways, he’s correct, in others, he’s mistaken in that those who value living and have ‘precious cargo’ that must be defended, will do the things necessary to make the price to high for marauders to attack.
The author also seems to write from the premise that all NPT or Prepper types are self-interested, pussilananimous sissy boys that are easy to take, even when the NPT or defended location has well-trained and/or former military included.

While reading the book as objectively as possible, I was constantly reminded of the 1960 film, ‘The Magnificent Seven’ (based upon the book, The Seven Samurai), specifically, the bandit Tuco’s character, played by Eli Wallach, and his famous line, “If God didn’t want them sheared, he wouldn’t have made them sheep!” The author promotes and is trying to train the reader to become a WROL ‘Tuco’. Another similarity with the movie above is the author describes a point where he tries to get a former green beret to join him as a partner, much like the character ‘Tuco’ did with Yul Brenner and Steve McQueen’s characters during the intial negotiations. The author, just as Tuco did, fails to acknowledge that there might be ‘Seven Samurai’ at any one of the NPT/Prepper locations he wants to raid willing to see the fight through to the end…the marauder’s end, specifically.

Bottom line on this book?

I’m glad I read it because it gave me new impetus to kill any apathy I might have regarding PT, marksmanship, FIN (Finish It Now – AKA ‘Combatives’, and War to the Knife, Knife to the Hilt) and to get my own NPT’s training revved up. It’s not a pleasant book to read; some of his stories will upset gentler people you have in your NPT, but it’s still worth while to get an idea of what you’ll be up against. Looters and unorganized marauders are one thing; organized, trained, business-minded marauders are another. Use this book as a baseline for planning WROL operations and training to repel marauders; the descriptions in the book can be distilled into a very useful Plan of Instruction for the NPT trainer with little effort.

And make no mistake, those with no moral compass who like being parasites, will find much joy in this book, because it’s a street language training program tailored specificaly to and for them to learn to tyrannize peaceful people making the best of a SHTF scenario."
________________________________________

Ex-CIA operative Kilkenny writes the book on surviving a post-apocalyptic event or fall of civilized society by becoming a professional Marauder. It describes, using fictionalized stories, how to take down farms, ranches and even large survivor colonies in order to survive, even thrive after the fall of civilized society.
________________________________________

As I said, the book is full of factual errors, terrible advice, and sociopathic ideas. Here's one of the most damning examples of why I believe he is not ex-CIA, not ex-Military, and not even particularly knowledgeable about firearms in general. He discusses firearms at some length. He highly recommends a couple of firearms that I personally would never think to run out and get (the guns and their ammo are not incredibly common compared to a million better, more available choices). My guess is that he just happens to own that pistol and that rifle, so he has some knowledge about it... so he'll speak to those guns because he doesn't know much about others. Again, just my opinion on those 2 he recommends. However, here's where it became absolutely clear that he does not have a military-level knowledge of firearms. He speaks several times about the M-16. He describes using the M-16 during raids and operations here and there throughout the book. Well, each time he referenced the type of cartridge that the M-16 fires, he says "22LR". You heard that right. In several spots throughout the book, he refers to the 22LR as the ammunition which is fired by an M-16. No, he didn't say "AR-15 chambered in 22LR" or anything like that. It was pretty clear he was talking about the standard military M-16, and he asserted that it shoots 22LR. It would be something like, "Once they surrendered, we told them we want a month's worth of food, a hundred gallons of water, and 5000 rounds of M-16 ammo. And sure enough, we got several boxes of rations, full water barrels, and a big crate of 22LR ammunition." I'm paraphrasing because I don't want to copy-and-paste directly. There were so many spots in this book that made me think, "I think this guy might be an enormous fraud." But the "22LR" parts are what sealed the deal for me. The author uses what is surely a moniker. That's probably wise, considering how most people feel about it when someone tries to claim military status and valor that they do not have. It's not my business to hold him accountable to his claims, but maybe somebody out there knows if something can be done about this.

____________________________________________

Based on his advise and anecdotes in the book he has no experiance assaulting a fixed location, conducting tactical recconaisance on a fixed site, and engaging in any type of deception campaign. I will not comment on his statements on being with any OGA but his stories read like somthing out of "Stony Man" or a Dick Marcinko "Red Cell" book. Some of his advise is useful, such as pistols are almost useless for anything other then in close self defense, but the rest of the book is only useful to see how he and people like him will try to raid a location for their tribute and how we can counter his attempts. The story he tells of the prepared position manned by former SF guys shows me that he has no understanding of how to defend a position, never talked to a guy in SF (They hate to be called "Green Berets."), or how soldiers are trained to respond to an attack. If I came upon a position guarded the way he described then that guy is the worst SF ODA member in the history of mankind and I would cut him loose. I once had a leader who told me "You learn from all people, smart and stupid alike" take this book with a grain of salt and use it to learn what not to do and if you encounter these tactics how to thwart them. Check this guy out on "Doomsday Preppers" season three, episode titled "We are the Marauders." He comes across as a guy who is faking it.
____________________________________________

But where it really gets flaky are the scenarios he presents, which are full of improbable assumptions and unconsidered questions:

In one of his fantasy scenarios, a prepper (and "former Green Beret") stalks him and shoots him in the chest with a .45 pistol. Luckily, 'Kilkenny' is wearing IIIa body armor and is bruised but uninjured. Lucky too that the Green Beret somehow didn't notice that bulky body armor and shoot him in the head! But you know how clueless those preppers are... and after all, it's 'Kilkenny' writing the script.

He imagines the folks in each prepper compound his marauders beseige as being torn by internal strife and dissention; while his own group of marauders happily obeys his every command. He imagines them as being both highly capable, and highly compliant to his orders. No strife or disagreement among his group! And if anyone does disagree, 'Kilkenny' will just shoot him in the head! Meanwhile, I suppose the others are just grinning and chuckling and shaking their heads: "That Kilkenny! Isn't he something!"

He imagines his group of marauders travelling merrily from conquest to conquest on horseback, stealing all they need. Since many of his scenarios are set in Colorado, one can't help but wonder: where do they spend the winter? And how will they keep shoes on their horses? But undoubtedly, that's no problem for 'Kilkenny': since this is all his fantasy anyway, no doubt he's contrived some awesome scenario to suit.

Reading his bio, we discover in fact that he currently lives in CO with his wife on a "sprawling ranch". As he spends most of the book describing how such ranches will be completely indefensible, one can't help but wonder what provisions he's made: what does *his* ranch look like? But he gives us no clue, even in the equally-worthless 'sequel' ('Defeating the Doomsday Marauders') which supposedly deals with just this problem; but in fact contains mostly repetitions of his egoistic bloviating from the first book, along with another fantasy scenario or two.

Then there's his stream-of-consciousness writing style, in which he takes himself as the supreme example of all that's right and good, and apparently assumes that every word coming out of his mouth will be inherently fascinating to the reader. *This* reader, at least, found just the opposite to be true: early-on, I got tired of his endless self-promotion, all the 'hot babes' he bedded, etc.

'Kilkenny' has given us his wish-fulfillment fantasy of a post-apocalyptic world in which he-- the fearless and revered commander-- leads his Robin Hood brigade of marauders-- each of whom is a model warrior, capable-but-obedient, merry-but-deadly, and ruthless-but-moral-- in escapade after escapade, in which they defeat the clueless preppers, share a few shots of Jack around the campfire, and ride off to the next great adventure. These imaginations might be interesting to his psychotherapist, but not to me; or to anyone else seriously grappling with the very real problems of self-defense in the world to come.
____________________________________________________

Seems the writer is trying to piss off every one he meets. Book reads like a wannabe daydreamer who is probably a nerd with a street level imagination. He pretends to be an expert secret agent yet comes off with anecdotes that are ridiculously implausible, but always invoke a beautiful prostitute.
_____________________________________________________

I am not quite sure where to start when reviewing this book. This one star rating is not given lightly and I don't believe I have ever given someone a one star rating for written thoughts before. If it were possible, I would ask Amazon for my money back after reading it.

The authenticity which the author claims to have experienced is highly suspect. The author claims to have been selected by an alphabet agency to work as a covert operative, as well as maintaining a successful career as a traveling banker through Central America. His "experiences" are relayed to the reader via first person perspective with no regard to sentence structure and italics are (over) used for emphasis on points that the author wants to hit home with the reader. Rather than emphasis specific points, italics are used to say things like "BULLSH!T" and other pejoratives and it comes across the same way when kids first learn about swear words.

The author has several sentences throughout the book that make one doubt entirely that he has ever experienced firearms at all. In the last chapter, the author implores the reader with the following sage advice: "Keep that Glock cocked and locked!"

You can keep a Glock loaded and the author may be using a cutesy misnomer to say that you should always be prepared but Glock pistols are striker fired pistols that have no hammer. Additionally, you cannot keep them "locked" because there is no manual safety on a Glock. This is a term usually used to describe 1911 readiness attributed to gunfighter Col. Jeff Cooper. Condition One is A round chambered, full magazine in place, hammer cocked, safety on. This is what it means to be cocked and locked.

The author also gives contradictory advice to those engaged in firefights. The beginning of the book has the author giving a common knowledge platitude about pistols being poor tools for offensive striking and they should only be used to fight your way (back) to your rifle. Later in his novel-styled descriptions of offensive attacks, the author ditches his rifles for a Russian-Surplus uncommon (but not rare) caliber pistol; the Makarov. The Makarov is an okay pistol. A lot of them were circulated years back because of inexpensive prices and inexpensive ammo. It is hard but not impossible to find hollowpoint or 'defensive' ammo for them. Most models should an uncommon round called 9mm Makarov or 9x18mm PM. You may be thinking that you have heard of this round before and that it is very popular. What is the common 9mm round is actually 9x19mm. The reason why 9x18mm was invented: The Soviet military required that their ammunition should be incompatible with NATO firearms, so that in the event of armed conflict a foreign power would be unable to use captured Soviet ammunition supplies. 9×18mm Makarov ammunition uses a larger diameter bullet than other common 9mm rounds, measuring 9.27mm (0.365 in), compared with 9.017mm (0.355 inches) for 9mm Parabellum. After its introduction in 1951, the 9×18mm Makarov round spread throughout the militaries of Eastern Bloc nations.

I've spent more time on this review than what you should spend on this book. The advice is the same as what you see the 'bad' characters doing in post apocalyptic movies. The question asked is what are you willing to do is survive? You don't need this book for that.

The only thing I am inclined to believe is that the author did, at some point, work for the government. Most likely in customer service at the post office or at the DMV.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2016 8:52 am 
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those are the folks that have scared the hell out of me for decades. Common looters will turn aside from a well defended place to a less defended place, but an attack group will target the well defended place knowing they have something to defend, and the attack group has the means to take it. The arrow of entropy being what it is, it will always be easier to destroy than to create, and to steal rather than to purchase.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2016 10:54 am 
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phil_in_cs wrote:
those are the folks that have scared the hell out of me for decades. Common looters will turn aside from a well defended place to a less defended place, but an attack group will target the well defended place knowing they have something to defend, and the attack group has the means to take it. The arrow of entropy being what it is, it will always be easier to destroy than to create, and to steal rather than to purchase.


You nailed it. I've been confident that I could drive off ordinary looters. I've been aware of the local gangs but never thought through the implications that their means of organizing would make them an ideal group of marauders and make me their target.

I am going to continue my research on the possible threats the gangs present and try to create a working document that I can take to select neighbors for discussion. By "select" I mean the overt firearms owners and those who fly Old Glory more than once a year. :mrgreen:

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:31 pm 
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IMHO, yes they can potentially organize a proper assault, but would probably look for softer targets elsewhere. If all the soft targets are gone, well then you have a problem. Marauder groups will eventually take too many losses from constant assaults and their power will subside. They would potentially use intimidation techniques or lay siege in an attempt to whittle down the number of defenders by catching them outside their safe havens. At that point it is a time game and time is on their side. You most likely will not be able to produce enough food (estimates show 1 acre feeds 2 adult and 2 children) to be self sufficient within your stronghold.

Just my thoughts.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:43 pm 
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Rather than shrink due to losses the marauder groups will be more likely to take conscripts and slaves in order to grow their death machine.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2016 6:08 pm 
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2013 Riot in Orange County at the beach that had no real reason to happen. Lack of food and water would be a bigger trigger.



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PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 5:58 am 
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teotwaki wrote:
Rather than shrink due to losses the marauder groups will be more likely to take conscripts and slaves in order to grow their death machine.


That is a possibility, but if they don't have the manpower to enforce conscription they will need new tactics.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 2:23 pm 
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NamelessStain wrote:
-------- They would potentially use intimidation techniques or lay siege in an attempt to whittle down the number of defenders by catching them outside their safe havens. At that point it is a time game and time is on their side. You most likely will not be able to produce enough food (estimates show 1 acre feeds 2 adult and 2 children) to be self sufficient within your stronghold.

Just my thoughts.



I don't disagree about what tactics they might possibly use but the discussion is about gathering information and formulating plans to deal with such scenarios. I don't agree that time is on their side as they are dependent upon looting to fill their bellies. As for the "stronghold" comment I don't know what that is based on but protecting both fields and homes from marauders is an age-old and yet still modern problem.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:20 pm 
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Just a few notes:

White race identity gangs are still on the defensive. They do engage in a broad spectrum of criminal behavior but tend to do poorly when compared to other race identity gangs. Motorcycle gangs do much better but fielding a motorcycle gang in the PAW would likely run in to more resourcing issues than can be kept up with.

Most criminals that are prone to violence and theft in the US are mostly concerned with obtaining more intoxicants. Everything they do revolves around that activity. Being high and drunk or fiending tends to seriously blunt effectiveness for any type of coordinated activity. It also adds a sense of desperation to whatever actions they take.

In a PAW type scenario I anticipate the criminal gangs will exhaust themselves quickly unless they have serious leadership. I seldom see any serious leaders in criminal activity as they tend to avoid it. Groups that come later will be far more dangerous.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:50 pm 
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Just for laughs Guys & Gals:

Training "Marauders" at a young age

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 10, 2016 9:34 pm 
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teotwaki wrote:

A number of the gangs have names with the number 13 as part of it. The 13 stands for the 13th letter of the alphabet, which is M..... this denotes their alliance with the "M", or "emay", which is supposed to be shorthand for the Mexican Mafia. Police union President John Franks said California that Prop. 47 has created a “perfect storm.” Newly released rival gang members, he said, “walk into each other and no challenge goes unanswered … the answer is always going to be violence.” From January first there were 55 shootings in the next 55 days


Some gaps in your EOB. "M" is not for Mexico nor Mafia, MS-13 is a vicious Salavadoran gang that originated in Los Angeles. MS is Mara Salvatrucha. A supposed amalgamation of a Salvadoran street gang La Mara and a guerilla unit the Salvatrucha. They are the worst organized crime group in the DC suburbs. In addition to drug distribution they murder at the drop of a hat, engage in human trafficking, particularly targeting blonde suburban girls because they fetch higher dollar value.

Remember all those unaccompanied minors sneaking across the border, a lot of them were fleeing MS-13 conscription back in El Salvador. Here is a fun fact, the Salvadoran government actually asked the USG to stop deporting gang members back to El Salvador because the police could not deal with them.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 10:26 am 
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Evan the Diplomat wrote:
Some gaps in your EOB. "M" is not for Mexico nor Mafia, MS-13 is a vicious Salavadoran gang that originated in Los Angeles. MS is Mara Salvatrucha. A supposed amalgamation of a Salvadoran street gang La Mara and a guerilla unit the Salvatrucha.


Hello Evan!

I am not a gang expert so I started by asking some local experts. My local PD street gang unit suggested some sources for me. All are known folks or books in the anti gang community

Samuel Logan, author "This is for the Mara Salvatrucha"

quote: "when the Mara Salvatrucha allied themselves with the Mexican Mafia, they adopted “13” as part of their name out of respect, because “M” is the thirteenth letter of the alphabet."


Also someone who writes books and is from your neck of the woods: Sergeant Lou Savelli co-founder and Vice President of the East Coast Gang Investigators Association, an 18 year veteran of NYPD, a former member of the Broward County Sheriff’s Department (FL) and Hollywood Police Department (FL) and a published author.


East Coast Mexican Gangs
by Sgt. Louis Savelli, Vice President,
East Coast Gang Investigators' Association

Quotes:

Mexican Gang Slang

Mexican gangs have their own form of spoken and written language that is evident in their graffiti and conversation. Some of words, phrases, terms, gang name translations or numbers to be aware of are listed below:

13 = Depicts the letter M; refers to southern California
14 = depicts the letter N; refers to northern California

La Eme = The Mexican Mafia


I agree that my Enemy Order of Battle has some gaps but I think that the presence and size of the gang is more important than decrypting the mysteries of one gang's origins. See pages 84 and 85 of this document as the experts cannot agree on the explanation for what MS-13 means.

Exploitation of Border Security by MS-13 in Aiding Al Qaeda's Agenda for Domestic Terrorism in the United States
https://books.google.com/books?id=Pdpd5 ... S-13%29&q=

best regards,

Jim

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 11:32 am 
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Evan the Diplomat wrote:
MS-13 is a vicious Salavadoran gang that originated in Los Angeles. MS is Mara Salvatrucha. A supposed amalgamation of a Salvadoran street gang La Mara and a guerilla unit the Salvatrucha. They are the worst organized crime group in the DC suburbs. In addition to drug distribution they murder at the drop of a hat, engage in human trafficking, particularly targeting blonde suburban girls because they fetch higher dollar value.

Remember all those unaccompanied minors sneaking across the border, a lot of them were fleeing MS-13 conscription back in El Salvador. Here is a fun fact, the Salvadoran government actually asked the USG to stop deporting gang members back to El Salvador because the police could not deal with them.


Sorry - I missed that earlier. Evan is correct
http://www.insightcrime.org/el-salvador ... ucha-ms-13
https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2008/j ... s13_011408

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 11:52 am 
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phil_in_cs wrote:
Evan the Diplomat wrote:
MS-13 is a vicious Salavadoran gang that originated in Los Angeles. MS is Mara Salvatrucha. A supposed amalgamation of a Salvadoran street gang La Mara and a guerilla unit the Salvatrucha. They are the worst organized crime group in the DC suburbs. In addition to drug distribution they murder at the drop of a hat, engage in human trafficking, particularly targeting blonde suburban girls because they fetch higher dollar value.

Remember all those unaccompanied minors sneaking across the border, a lot of them were fleeing MS-13 conscription back in El Salvador. Here is a fun fact, the Salvadoran government actually asked the USG to stop deporting gang members back to El Salvador because the police could not deal with them.


Sorry - I missed that earlier. Evan is correct
http://www.insightcrime.org/el-salvador ... ucha-ms-13
https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2008/j ... s13_011408


He is correct about who the MS-13 gang is but not about the explanation of the 13 in the name. Please see my citations. Your citations merely affirm who MS-13 but note that in my first post I never even mentioned MS-13. They are not one of the gangs in my area. There are gangs in my area with the number 13 as part of their name.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2016 12:27 pm 
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Gangs are only one part of the equation. In my County there are roughly 55 gangs with over 1,000 members. But what does law enforcement and emergency services look like in my area?

In my county there are 26 unique police departments. One is a county-wide Sheriff and two of the 26 are university departments. From what I have seen so far the average number of LEOs per city department is 200 but the Sheriffs have over 1400 LEOs. I'm estimating 7,000 LEOs total

I've not located good numbers for National Guard and Air Guard members or the number of armories but there is a good sized presence. At the moment the state Guard website is down. In 2010 almost 3,000 Guard personnel were deployed overseas. There is also a small Coast Guard presence and small offices for other agencies such as FBI, Secret Service, etc.

Overall population of the county is a little over 3 million.

Swagging the total number of LEOs at 7,000 that means about 430 citizens per officer.

We have 37 hospitals of various sizes and purposes.

We have three major jail facilities. I have not located typical population numbers yet. But will track it down eventually.

At the south end of the County but in San Diego County we have Camp Pendleton which could be a good resource if not deployed elsewhere. About 35,000 troops there out of a daytime population of 100,000

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2016 8:38 pm 
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With your county being that large you likely under counted LEOs.

There will be considerable Federal and State agency presence in a county with 3,000,000 people. I'd say likely around 500-800 Federal officers in your county and a similar number of State LEO's, unless the State Capitol is in your county which would make it higher.

Many departments also have Police Reserves that they call in times of disasters or events that require crowd control. This can account for a 10-25% increase in the local police numbers if fully activated. If your area has no such program I would talk to the locals about starting one.

Law enforcement and the National Guard are not the only ones responsible for security either.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:51 pm 
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Stercutus wrote:
With your county being that large you likely under counted LEOs.

There will be considerable Federal and State agency presence in a county with 3,000,000 people. I'd say likely around 500-800 Federal officers in your county and a similar number of State LEO's, unless the State Capitol is in your county which would make it higher.

Many departments also have Police Reserves that they call in times of disasters or events that require crowd control. This can account for a 10-25% increase in the local police numbers if fully activated. If your area has no such program I would talk to the locals about starting one.

Law enforcement and the National Guard are not the only ones responsible for security either.


I agree on undercounting the Feds but I have to wait until I can talk to some of those folks for a rough idea. I believe that the bulk of the Federal agents are in Los Angeles and that they use the satellite offices here as needed.

State LEOs is also a great catch. I forgot the Highway Patrol which is not huge but would still boost the numbers quite a bit. A while back they absorbed the separate State Police department. I know a couple of retired officers who can sketch the outlines for me.

The other thing with this estimate is that it is not as if we have a big wall at the county borders and will not have spillover from other cities. I also can't account for how many officers might now show up for their jobs if it means leaving their families unprotected. Apparently some cities have set up a mutual aid system for families so that the first responders won't have to worry too much.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:02 am 
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There are approximately 4 Federal agents for every 10,000 people in the US population. There are large concentrations in certain areas but they can focus efforts on a particular area as needed. State numbers vary widely.

In our little city we have 5-10 patrol officers on shift at a time. The last time we had a call out for all hands for a "mini-riot" in our little ghetto around 40 officers showed up within 10 minutes. The hood rats and their offspring were pretty surprised. County and State units monitor our bands but other surprising people showed up like the County Probation officer, Animal Control Officer and others you would not think of. A lot of them monitor the net when not at work to keep and eye on things. Hard to say what would happen in a large city.

I can't speak for the no-show rate or the numbers that might quit if the whole apple cart overturned. Even in NOLA, a city renowned for police corruption there was at least an 80% turn out rate turn Katrina and the numbers climbed a bit later. That was with the chief having a complete public melt down. I think 80% is a good base line, going up from there. A lot of cops are married to nurses, other cops and other first responders. Most of these have plans for what to do with the kids in an emergency and ways to take care of their families.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 14, 2016 2:32 pm 
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Thanks to all for the thoughts and suggestions. I came up with another category to consider for inclusion in the big picture: homeless

In my city there are about 200 and across the county there are estimated to be 15,300, up from 12,707 in 2013

The larger LA County has almost 45,000 homeless.

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