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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:24 am 
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According to CNN, China is now considering enforcing air defense and control of the contested 9 Dash area.

The other ironic tidbit is that this decision also de-legitimized a claim made by Taiwan.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/sout ... index.html

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:03 am 
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Was reading a article about how the new Filipino President might have to handle the situation and saw this reader's funny comment:

"Think of all the shallow water marine ecosystems obliterated by Chinese dredging and island construction in the South China Sea. Now think of to what Greenpeace, WWF, et al would be saying and doing if it had been the Americans who'd caused such damage.

Think we'll see the Rainbow Warrior or the Esperanza sailing into one of these Chinese naval harbors to protest?"

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 1:40 pm 
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Interesting videos and info on Russian mobile launcher exercise

https://www.rt.com/news/350686-mobile-i ... rsabotage/

Several hundred military vehicles, including mobile intercontinental ballistic missile complexes (ICBMs), are taking part in extensive field exercises throughout Russia, training in counter-sabotage and performing simulated launch drills.

About 400 military vehicles, among them autonomous missile launchers Topol, Topol-M and Yars, accompanied by command posts, security vehicles, anti-sabotage complexes armed with drones and combat robots are out in the open for drills, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement.

Land-based mobile missile systems must be protected at every stage while on the patrol, which lasts up to a month. The military vehicles are rolling through the woods from the European part of Russia to the remote wilderness of the Altay Region.






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PostPosted: Fri Jul 15, 2016 1:12 pm 
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Asymetryczna wrote:
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The judgment by an international tribunal in The Hague is overwhelmingly in favour of claims by the Philippines and will increase global diplomatic pressure on Beijing to scale back military expansion in the sensitive area.

China reacted angrily to the verdict, which declares large areas of the sea to be neutral international waters.



Here is what China did the last time they got angry



China vs Vietnam: Johnson South Reef Skirmish of 1988

Published on Jun 1, 2012

The Johnson South Reef Skirmish of 1988 (Vietnamese: Hải chiến Trường Sa; Chinese: 赤瓜礁海战) was a naval battle that took place between Chinese and Vietnamese forces over Johnson South Reef in the Spratly Islands on March 14, 1988.

In the 1980s, after the relations between China and the US-led international community improved, its international status significantly improved. A global sea-level joint observation plan was adopted by the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) in February 1987, commissioned by the Chinese government, establishing five marine observation stations. China Nansha station is located in the Yongshu Reef.

In early February 1988, the China Construction forces launched the construction of NO.74 ocean observatory on Yongshu Reef. To guarantee the security of the establishment of the station site from 18 January to 14 March 1988, the South China Sea Fleet entered the Nansha Islands.

Upon learning that China intended to build a marine observation station, the Vietnamese Navy began to intensify its occupation of the islands and reefs of Nansha Islands.

In the afternoon of February 18, 1988, the Chinese Navy and Vietnamese Navy rushed to land on Huayang reef at the same time, each planting a flag. Confrontation between the two sides ensued for 3 hours as a result, eventually with the Vietnamese Navy retreating due to inclement weather. However from January 15 to February 19, the 171 Fleet in Vietnam and 125 transport brigade sent armed men to occupy 5 reefs around the Yongshu reef, and surrounded the waters around the reef.

At 6:00 on March 14, NO.604 carriers of the Vietnamese Navy laid down a wooden boat loaded with heavily armed Vietnamese soldiers and the materials used to build fortifications on the Johnson South Reef and planted two Vietnam flags on it.

At 7:50 Lee Chu, political commissar of China's NO.502-ship, sailed boats to bypass the Vietnamese boat heading for the reefs along with seven soldiers. They removed the Vietnamese flag, and one hour later confrontation with the Vietnamese began, leading to a scuffle by Chinese and Vietnamese soldiers, with shots exchanged.

On March 13, the Nanchong detected PAVN vessels HQ-604 heading toward Johnson South Reef, HQ-605 heading toward Lansdowne Reef, and HQ-505 heading toward Collins Reef in a simultaneous three-pronged intrusion upon the disputed reefs.

On March 14, PLA-N forces led by Yingtan arrived at Johnson South Reef and disembarked 25 naval infantrymen: the Nanchong already onsite disembarked a further 33 naval infantrymen in support. The Xiangtan was dispatched to Lansdowne Reef to counter the intrusion there.

At approximately 07:30 hours on Johnson South Reef, Vietnamese troops attempted to erect the Vietnam flag on the reef. It was reported that PAVN Corporal Nguyen Van Lanh and PAVN Sublieutenant Tran Van Phuong disputed the flag against PLA-N sailor Du Xianghou resulting in pitched battle between the two opposing forces. Vietnamese forces, with HQ-604 in support, opened fire in response. PLA-N forces and the Nanchong counter-attacked at 08:47 hours: HQ-604 was set ablaze in the firefight and sunk. In the same morning there was a battle between the Yingtan and HQ-505 which was beached at Collins Reef. The subsequent firefight resulted in the loss of the PAVN vessel, HQ-505.

At 09:15 hours, the Xiangtan arrived at the Lansdowne reef and discovered 9 Vietnamese troops from HQ-605 had already landed. The Xiangtan immediately hailed the Vietnamese forces demanding their withdrawal from the reef and was met with Vietnamese fire in reply. In the ensuing firefight, the HQ-605 was damaged heavily and sunk by the Chinese.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2016 12:57 pm 
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Chinese Bomber Buzzes Philippines' Scarborough Shoal In Latest Salvo Of U.S.-China Signalling War

http://www.forbes.com/sites/anderscorr/ ... 7accf37ef2

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The H-6K bomber is capable of delivering a nuclear-armed cruise missile to all major U.S. military bases in Asia, including Singapore, Guam, and Okinawa. The H-6K is based on the Russian Badger bomber and has a combat range of up to 3,500 km. It can carry six CJ-20 cruise missiles under its wings, plus additional missiles internally. The CJ-20 cruise missiles can travel an additional 1,500 to 2,000 km beyond the H-6K’s combat radius.


full article at link

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:44 pm 
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http://www.npr.org/2016/07/17/486240079 ... n-the-line

In South China Sea Dispute, Filipinos Say U.S. Credibility Is On The Line

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But does the Scarborough Shoal really represent a red line for the U.S. — one worth the risk of open conflict with China?

Richard Heydarian of Manila's De La Salle University isn't so sure. He's the author of Asia's New Battlefield: The USA, China and the struggle for the Western Pacific.

"We already heard this red line statement on Syria, and clearly saw how [it was] not [a] red line after all," he says. He says many Filipinos, including the new president Rodrigo Duterte, fear the same "artificial posturing red line" on the Scarborough Shoal.

Heydarian says that mistrust of U.S. support helps explain the Philippines' tempered response to the court's verdict.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2016 4:17 pm 
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So, is this the point where China starts subverting flagging confidence in American allies to construct their own Sino-Pacific bloc?

"Hey, we could totally press this issue because nobody - especially the US - is going to help you. But we aren't, because we and you are going to work together. And by that I mean that we're going to start telling you what to do and will graciously extend certain concessions to you - like letting you fish and navigate in your own internationally-recognized territorial waters, and all you have to do is allow us build bases on your territory and supply you with modern weapons, systems, and materiel for your military. A military that we will happily oversee for your benefit by introducing our own people into it at key positions to ensure that your training and operations are run at a modern level."

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2016 4:31 pm 
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Maeklos,

China would like to have Taiwan as part of the bloc.

Say Goodbye to Taiwan
Time is running out for the little island coveted by its gigantic, growing neighbor.
John J. Mearsheimer

http://nationalinterest.org/article/say ... aiwan-9931

A long article worth reading

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2016 5:34 pm 
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Very interesting article, and while I disagree with some of the author's assertions, I generally agree with the gist of his thought process.

China, above and beyond nearly any other country, has been able to plan things out for the long haul, and to actively work towards goals that will only see fruit borne decades down the line - something America has long since lost. Which means that the idea of consistently building up their military to parity with that of the United States is most definitely one of their goals, but I'm unsure whether they would wait that long to start exerting their influence.

America is a war-weary nation that's been at war constantly for the last 15 years, and is still fighting in at least one undeclared war (against ISIS) at the moment. If China decided to suddenly flex its military muscles in the Pacific, we run into a situation that I didn't notice being addressed in that article: the will of the people.

A war to curb terrorism? Maybe reluctantly in parts, but America can stay behind that - especially given the constant examples of extremist terrorism that keep cropping up.

A war against a major world power in a region that is nowhere near us and involves countries that aren't close allies, members of NATO, or represent any other strong connection with the US? I don't think the majority of Americans would care if China invaded Vietnam or Malaysia. Probably not even the Philippines. US bases would probably be told to go on alert, make ready to defend themselves, but otherwise keep out - and Chinese forces would probably be told very explicitly by their government to go nowhere near them.

Especially so if China does something beforehand that boosts American opinion of them first, like, say, invade North Korea after the Norks issue the latest line of inflammatory propaganda or shoot another missile near Japan. Farfetched, maybe, and definitely not something China would ordinarily do unless North Korea looked ready to actually launch some real missiles - but they may consider it a good tradeoff against future annexations/invasions.

With a feather like that in China's cap, I can't see the American people getting behind any kind of action that would send American men and women off to die for no reason that's clear to them. Hegemony is a great term for politicians, military strategists, and historians but it's not a word that's even in the vocabulary of the civilian populace.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2016 10:39 pm 
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An interesting double standard on the recent ruling by the Hague against China:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2016/07/17/japan-is-quietly-building-a-tiny-tropical-islet-but-an-angry-china-has-noticed/#58d188fa3d6c

Now, the main difference being that Japan is cultivating the little spot of land naturally, by encouraging the growth of coral reefs around it rather than dumping thousands of tons of concrete, sand, and rock all over. But the fact that they did get the UN to rule that it extended their effective territorial waters back in 2012 is still a bit of a double standard. As the article points out, China could probably press that issue - except for the fact they've already thrown their hands up in the air about the Hague's ruling and said they'll have nothing to do with it.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2016 10:45 pm 
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Interesting story on Japan!

My guess is that at home the Chinese government has been trumpeting that owning the local ocean is their right. Therefore they would never even challenge the Hague about the double standard because that would be tantamount to admitting that the Court has some authority over China

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2016 10:59 pm 
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teotwaki wrote:
My guess is that at home the Chinese government has been trumpeting that owning the local ocean is their right. Therefore they would never even challenge the Hague about the double standard because that would be tantamount to admitting that the Court has some authority over China


And that's exactly it. If the Hague had actually ruled in their favor, the Chinese government wouldn't have to even acknowledge it - on their own, the Chinese people would take it to mean that an outside agency was affirming what they already believed to be right. Win-win. And if the Hague did rule against them (which it did), China had already covered itself by saying they wouldn't accept any ruling. Again, win-win for them - at least from a domestic standpoint.

With that said, my guess is that China is going to start pushing into the Japanese exclusion zone around their little island and seeing what happens. After all, if the Hague ruling has merit, then the Hague is going to have to address Japan's situation, too, and make a ruling on it factoring in all the details that are different between the two cases. So, if and when the Hague does hand down a ruling, and if it's in favor of Japan's actions (being that it's cultivating islands naturally as opposed to destroying rare ecosystems as the Chinese are doing), now the Chinese has an internationally-approved roadmap of how, exactly, to build their own islands AND get them approved and recognized by the international court of law.

Or, if the Hague rules against the Japanese, China has managed to make Japan lose face and snipped off a bit of their territorial waters.

So, either Japan stands up and defends that territorial extension in international court, or they don't - in which case the Chinese win again, because they get Japan to back down. Either way, China itself has to do nothing more than send in a few fishing vessels to this exclusion zone and make enough waves to get Japan to act on it.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 1:55 pm 
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Looks like the Chinese read your post about the Japanese plot to rule the Pacific :mrgreen:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennin ... 39c9073d6c

Japan Is Quietly Building A Tiny Tropical Islet, But An Angry China Has Noticed

Japan’s southernmost islet is so small at nine square meters it conjures up comparisons to boats and bedrooms. Curiously, the government in Tokyo has spent an estimated $600 million on infrastructure such as cement and steel breakwaters to prevent erosion of the tiny feature. It’s also cultivating coral to buff it up. The erosion control and new coral would fortify Okinotori and with it Japan’s control of a giant swathe of the tropical western Pacific around it.

Although no one disputes Japan’s claim to Okinotori itself, the islet’s position as a Pacific Ocean gateway for other parts of Asia has raised suspicion from Japan’s chief political rival China. Beijing happens to be smarting over a world arbitral court ruling last week that says Chinese claims to 95% of the South China Sea lack legal merit and have violated the maritime rights of the Philippines. The world court also said China’s little islands in that ocean are but rocks, not qualifying for an exclusive economic zone. Beijing has reclaimed land and installed military facilities on some.

more at link

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:02 pm 
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And on a tangentially-related note, North Korea fires off 3 SCUDs - most likely as a protest against an agreement between the US and South Korea to install THAAD anti-missile systems.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/n-korea-fires-three-ballistic-missiles-korea-224745969.html

If my paranoid conspiracy theory about China is correct, something like this but that has actual repercussions - a missile accidentally hitting something, whether it's a fishing vessel, land, whatever - would be a perfect excuse for China to kick in North Korea's door and removing the crazies in charge in order to rack up some of those goodwill points to be traded later at the invasion/annexation of other Pacific countries.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2016 4:12 pm 
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China's government is being pressured across many fronts. Will they lash out?

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/india-moving-1 ... yptr=yahoo

The Indian military is mobilising nearly 100 tanks near its border with China as part of latest measures to beef up its presence in the region. The deployment of the T-72 tanks in the remote mountainous region is directly aimed at challenging what it sees as Beijing's aggressive stance in the border area. The tanks have been deployed after the Indian forces made some significant improvement in their operations.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2016 7:55 pm 
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The tension between China and India is interesting, as China has recently been trying to woo India as their immediate spheres of influence don't overlap. I'd been under the assumption that China was hoping to make nice with India so that between them they could intimidate the lesser powers in their area.

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I recall that India may be providing intel to Vietnam via imagery from recon satellites. India has not forgotten their not too long ago border war with China

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teotwaki wrote:
I recall that India may be providing intel to Vietnam via imagery from recon satellites. India has not forgotten their not too long ago border war with China

....and I doubt they want China having too much influence over shipping routes between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. India would like trade levels with the US such as China has had, and China controlling the easiest route for Indian goods to US ports would not be good thing from the Indian's point of view.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2016 10:42 am 
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found it at https://www.google.com/search?q=India+s ... 8&oe=utf-8


South China Sea: Vietnam To Host Indian Satellite Tracking Center
Situation Reports
January 25, 2016 | 13:01 GMT

India is establishing a satellite tracking and imaging center in southern Vietnam, providing Hanoi with imagery from Indian Earth observation satellites that cover the region, including Chinese-built artificial islands in disputed parts of the South China Sea, unnamed Indian officials said Jan. 25, Reuters reported. The state-run Indian Space Research Organisation will fund and set up the satellite tracking and data reception center in Ho Chi Minh City to monitor Indian satellite launches, according to the officials. The center will officially be intended to serve civilian purposes, such as agricultural, scientific and environmental applications, but the improved imaging technology is believed to be suitable for military purposes as well. Vietnam will rely on outside powers like India and Russia, more than the United States, to counter China's southward push into Southeast Asia.

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Found this interesting picture

A staff member dressed in the uniform of the People’s Liberation Army cycles past a full size cement model of a US Navy Nimitz class aircraft carrier at Shanghai National Defense Education Center in Shanghai, China, on Monday, December 18, 2006. (Photographer: Kevin Lee/Bloomberg News.)
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Article: http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougbandow/ ... a376177485

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 05, 2016 2:52 pm 
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Maeklos wrote:
The tension between China and India is interesting, as China has recently been trying to woo India as their immediate spheres of influence don't overlap. I'd been under the assumption that China was hoping to make nice with India so that between them they could intimidate the lesser powers in their area.

I might also mention that the US military and the Indian military are getting much more cozy than they have been in the past.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:50 pm 
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Still going...

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-could-be-preparing-for-a-paramilitary-invasion-in-the-east-china-sea-2016-9

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China’s J-20 Fighter Jet Can’t Touch the US Planes It Copies—And It Doesn’t Need To

https://www.wired.com/2016/11/china-j-20-fighter-jet/

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excerpts on China’s Chengdu J-20 fighter jet

The supersonic, twin-engine fighter and attack aircraft packs advanced radar and sensor capabilities, with a 360-degree helmet display system that allows the pilot to through the aircraft itself. It boasts the same kind of stealth technologies the US Air Force has been honing for decades. And it’s bigger than the F-22 Raptor it rivals, so it can carry more fuel and more weapons, extending its lethality deep into enemy territory.

....the jet will ensure dominance in the region once it enters service, around 2018

“China will then have a solid technological edge in air-to-air combat over all its Asian neighbors, including Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, and others,” says military analyst Peter Singer. That will of course extend to its allies who purchase the jets, Singer says, including countries in Africa, southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America.

Plus, China will likely build a ton of the J-20 and J-31 (itself a knockoff of the F-35), and could exceed US production of the F-22 and F-35 within a few years. “The airplanes don’t have to be as good if they’re wielded in greater numbers, or in certain scenarios that can create major complications for the U.S. and its allies,” Singer says. In a way, China gets a second-mover advantage. “They don’t have to innovate; they simply have to catch up.”

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:46 pm 
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