Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Topics in this category pertain to planning. Discussions include how to prepare yourself, your family and your community for catastrophes and what you plan to do when they hit you.

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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Murphman » Sat Sep 06, 2014 3:24 pm

Browning 35 wrote:Pretty much the point. Is anyone of the mind here that any of us are going to be facing and trying to survive in a post apocalyptic world? I mean real zombies and raiders with purple Mohawks zooming around crotch rockets clad in ass-less chaps.

More than likely we'll see the same sort of natural disasters, war, civil war, riots and the occasional economic collapse we've seen so far in recorded human history (where gold has value for when cash takes a shit).

There are those here of that mind set. Why do you think they had to break out a zombie biology area for the forum. :clownshoes:

Anyway, I am not one of those, and I follow raptor's spot on post from way back in the beginning. Gold has its place in a portfolio. No single asset, in the history of the world, has outperformed everything else, all the time, so gold should only be part of your investment strategy. The things I know about physical gold are that 1) it has been associated with money for over 5,000 years, and 2) there are numerous examples of people fleeing for their lives (from whatever) and using gold, not paper money, to gain access to escape.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Browning 35 » Sat Sep 06, 2014 3:37 pm

woodsghost wrote:Also, I do believe natural disasters, war, civil war, riots and economic collapse are a little more likely than orcs or aliens.
Pretty much my only point. I've seen some of the former before (natural disasters, riots and hard economic times although I wouldn't exactly call it collapse). The ones I haven't seen personally I've studied enough to believe in their existence and believe that it's possible in the US.

Never seen orcs, ninjas or aliens.

Saw an ass-less chaps wearing biker chick in Hollywood once. She must've worked out. At least there I know that they exist. :wink:

PM's have their place, but it's in a narrow category, most people are still working on their other preps and so some people feel that they have no need for them. That's fine, whatever. I'm glad that we have them. Wouldn't have gone there if everything else wasn't nailed down first.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by nolongpork » Sat Sep 06, 2014 4:13 pm



Just one kind of SHTF I think is far more likely than zombies, especially when you ponder this http://www.usdebtclock.org/



Yes, I fully acknowledge having full preps would be key, but gold and silver is very useful in this scenario.

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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Kathy in FL » Sat Sep 06, 2014 6:41 pm

In a SHTF situation ... like weather, fire, etc. ... you still have a standing government that regulates currency. Are we talking black market? Then guess what ... you'll probably get less for your gold than what you paid for it because you need the preps you didn't buy because you used your currency on PMs. Confiscation is actually a much greater threat for the short term disasters than it is for a long term one as the established government seeks to stabilize an area.

No one is saying that PMs have absolutely no intrinsic value because they do. However, using them on a black market means they'll be debased to face value or less below their "intrinsic value".

People always use Zimbabwe as an example but remember, gold did not become commonly useable until some years into their SHTF. AND gold is a commodity that they can harvest from their landscape like other would harvest coal or other natural resources. In fact, Zimbabwe's gold-rich landscape created some of the problems that now exist in their economy via the inflation issue. Zimbabwe is one of the physically gold-richest countries out there. In fact it is so rich in gold that the gold market bottomed out by 40% and the government had to step in and shore the gold markets up. Zimbabwe just isn't a good role-model for gold as a currency unless it is for everything that can go wrong by relying on gold ... confiscation of personal assets, running people out of the country, inflation of good, depression of currency both paper and PMs, corrupt central government, etc.

I'm not a complete naysayer on PMs, I just think that everything else should take priority - particularly freeing assets by removing debt - and then and only then should you acquire PMs and their primary purpose should be as a way to ensure the continuity of your portfolio in the event of your death. Just like in the US "gold rush days" in the shanty towns that sprung up around mining areas, gold had intrinsic value but value of the gold as currency was severely debased. More difficult to acquire assets like food, clothing, tools, skills, etc. were valued as equal to or greater than gold currency. And in the event of a much shorter duration event such as a natural disaster where the central government remains in place, you need to be prepared for there to be just as many problems with using PMs as currency.

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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Snyper708 » Sat Sep 06, 2014 7:28 pm

I'm not a complete naysayer on PMs, I just think that everything else should take priority -
That's exactly how I feel about it too.
Investing in gold is highly overrated

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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by ineffableone » Sun Sep 07, 2014 12:10 pm

Snyper708 wrote:
I'm not a complete naysayer on PMs, I just think that everything else should take priority -
That's exactly how I feel about it too.
Investing in gold is highly overrated
I have a bit of PMs and would agree. Food, seed, tools, etc all take precedent in my preps. For me PMs are for keeping wealth in the system but not for the collapse of the system. Also they are just kinda pretty to look at. PMs are also a way of holding onto wealth that makes it less likely for me to spend. $100 in the bank is going to get spent on something but $100 in silver bullion will likely stay in silver for years. So for me PMs are my way at doing a savings account that doesn't shrink. My entire life I have never been able to keep a savings account for long enough to make it worth while.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by NamelessStain » Sun Sep 07, 2014 12:59 pm

Browning 35 wrote:ass-less chaps.
All chaps are ass-less :)
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Browning 35 » Mon Sep 08, 2014 4:12 am

NamelessStain wrote:
Browning 35 wrote:ass-less chaps.
All chaps are ass-less :)
Yeah, but it's better when you say it that way as it brings a certain image to mind.

Namely these guys.

Image
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by NamelessStain » Mon Sep 08, 2014 5:53 am

Browning 35 wrote:
NamelessStain wrote:
Browning 35 wrote:ass-less chaps.
All chaps are ass-less :)
Yeah, but it's better when you say it that way as it brings a certain image to mind.

Namely these guys.

Image
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by 2now » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:44 am

Try imagining my scenario the other way.

A refuge really does exist, spared the Z virus, or a powerful fashion police to keep assless chaps at bay...
It is not a 100% EOTWAWKI, only 95%.
What will they use for currency?
What will want to have to carry with you to this refuge of Pre-PAW prosperity?

I'm not suggesting that PMs are superior to other preps.

IF you are bugging out, and you only have what you can carry, PMs have a place, in moderation.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by raptor » Mon Sep 08, 2014 11:28 am

Browning 35 wrote:
NamelessStain wrote:
Browning 35 wrote:ass-less chaps.
All chaps are ass-less :)
Yeah, but it's better when you say it that way as it brings a certain image to mind.

Namely these guys.

Image

Yes technically all chaps are ass-less but for short hand use it is an acceptable term on the forum rather like zombie bikers. Not the most precise terms but it gets it point across and both can be id'ed by this image. :D



Getting back on track:
2now wrote:Try imagining my scenario the other way.

A refuge really does exist, spared the Z virus, or a powerful fashion police to keep assless chaps at bay...
It is not a 100% EOTWAWKI, only 95%.
What will they use for currency?
What will want to have to carry with you to this refuge of Pre-PAW prosperity?

I'm not suggesting that PMs are superior to other preps.

IF you are bugging out, and you only have what you can carry, PMs have a place, in moderation.
PMs are indeed an excellent form of portable wealth.

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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by NamelessStain » Mon Sep 08, 2014 11:36 am

2now wrote:Try imagining my scenario the other way.

A refuge really does exist, spared the Z virus, or a powerful fashion police to keep assless chaps at bay...
It is not a 100% EOTWAWKI, only 95%.
What will they use for currency?
What will want to have to carry with you to this refuge of Pre-PAW prosperity?

I'm not suggesting that PMs are superior to other preps.

IF you are bugging out, and you only have what you can carry, PMs have a place, in moderation.
Maybe they aren't using a currency but instead are a socialist/communist commune where you work for your existence.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Halfapint » Mon Sep 08, 2014 11:41 am

NamelessStain wrote:
2now wrote:Try imagining my scenario the other way.

A refuge really does exist, spared the Z virus, or a powerful fashion police to keep assless chaps at bay...
It is not a 100% EOTWAWKI, only 95%.
What will they use for currency?
What will want to have to carry with you to this refuge of Pre-PAW prosperity?

I'm not suggesting that PMs are superior to other preps.

IF you are bugging out, and you only have what you can carry, PMs have a place, in moderation.
Maybe they aren't using a currency but instead are a socialist/communist commune where you work for your existence.
The leaders of most these socialist/communist communes rarely believe in them and do it so they don't have to pay workers. They generally really like PM's because it is wealth. They may not wear them and be flashy but you can bet they have them hidden way. Just a thought.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Kathy in FL » Mon Sep 08, 2014 5:52 pm

2now wrote:Try imagining my scenario the other way.

A refuge really does exist, spared the Z virus, or a powerful fashion police to keep assless chaps at bay...
It is not a 100% EOTWAWKI, only 95%.
What will they use for currency?
What will want to have to carry with you to this refuge of Pre-PAW prosperity?

I'm not suggesting that PMs are superior to other preps.

IF you are bugging out, and you only have what you can carry, PMs have a place, in moderation.
More than likely they'll have their own scrip backed by the power of they won't kick your butt if you play by their rules while in their territory. That way they can control the scrip, what it can be used for, and what its value is so that they can control inflation and deflation problems. It is what central governments do.

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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by gundogs » Tue Sep 09, 2014 7:17 am

I have crops in the field & in canning jars. I have livestock on the hoof & canned/frozen meat.
I have off-grid power sources along with generators & fuel stored. Weapons,ammo & cash stashed
along with PM's. I am debt free.These things give me a great sense of security---I feel PM's will always have a place,
as history has shown.
Nope,can't eat the PM.s,but same goes for weapons,ammo,fuel,etc.
Divisible? Sure,just like a loaf of bread ya slice off a chunk if a small amount is needed

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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Halfapint » Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:33 pm

Just wanted to give this a bump.

So my SO needed to borrow money from her stepmom to get her bill paid off 3 months in advance while she went to 5 weeks unpaid. Not only was it 5 weeks unpaid, her new job pays once a month, so she'd be over 2 months with no pay. Move forward, she got paid the other day and wanted to pay her stepmom back.

She called her and asked how she could get her the money, she freak out. Saying no no no, you keep it, use that money to buy SILVER! She was a bit taken aback and was like what? why, this isn't a small chunk of money.... I'd really prefer to pay you back. She was very insistent on not paying her back and to use the money to watch silver prices and to start stockpiling silver because the market is far to unstable now.

The SO text me and told me and I laughed and immediately though of this thread. So I went online and looked at silver prices, While they aren't worth much ($16 =/- $1), but they have been VERY stable for a while from what I can see. While the last 10 years it spiked right along with gold, its been pretty stable. It got me thinking of it in the term of a financial security blanket. I noticed that the price shot down during the collapse. But is at a near historic high for being stable. It's been higher, its been lower, but it's stayed right around the $16 mark for quite a while.

What say you, anything changed in people minds in the 4 years since this thread was active?
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by woodsghost » Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:09 pm

Halfapint wrote:Just wanted to give this a bump.

So my SO needed to borrow money from her stepmom to get her bill paid off 3 months in advance while she went to 5 weeks unpaid. Not only was it 5 weeks unpaid, her new job pays once a month, so she'd be over 2 months with no pay. Move forward, she got paid the other day and wanted to pay her stepmom back.

She called her and asked how she could get her the money, she freak out. Saying no no no, you keep it, use that money to buy SILVER! She was a bit taken aback and was like what? why, this isn't a small chunk of money.... I'd really prefer to pay you back. She was very insistent on not paying her back and to use the money to watch silver prices and to start stockpiling silver because the market is far to unstable now.

The SO text me and told me and I laughed and immediately though of this thread. So I went online and looked at silver prices, While they aren't worth much ($16 =/- $1), but they have been VERY stable for a while from what I can see. While the last 10 years it spiked right along with gold, its been pretty stable. It got me thinking of it in the term of a financial security blanket. I noticed that the price shot down during the collapse. But is at a near historic high for being stable. It's been higher, its been lower, but it's stayed right around the $16 mark for quite a while.

What say you, anything changed in people minds in the 4 years since this thread was active?
Wow! Great time to discuss this!

I was talking with my dad. He feels PMs are always a waste of money. If the economy tanks in such a way that stocks cannot come back then shovels and work gloves will be a much better investment than gold or silver. Otherwise, a little patience will see stocks regaining eventually so don't worry too much about it.

On the other hand, a friend is very invested in PMs and is much more of a prepper than my dad is. Though I think prepping is starting to ping on my dad's radar, which is interesting.

I think PMs have uses. I'm winding up to say more, but basically it will be a repeat of Raptor on post #4.

If I were in Venezuela I"d be wishing I"d invested in PMs or crypto currency. Will that happen to the US? I suspect that is what your SO's mom is reacting to. The president's argument, as I understand it, is America already lost the trade war so it can't get any worse. I also like his honest response to the stock markets, arguing they have gone way up, they can come down a bit and we are all still ahead, so no real loss. It is all just "on paper" wealth. While I completely agree in principal, it is hard to know how it will translate into a reality over the next 2 or 40 years. But basically I think America is in an economic bubble and has been for 40+ years and I"ve been expecting a corrective shake up so we can see our real wealth, adjust to reality, and begin to build real wealth again. But I still think skills, bullets, bandaids, and beans are the things to invest in. I also think owning one's land outright and living off grid is REALLY going to be important in the future. Whether we see a big economic correction or whether we don't.

But if my wife's family said "take this money and invest it in silver" I would not hesitate. If that is what she wants, I think it is a fair request and might even really save your bacon later if things really go sideways. Maybe investing a little in a few crypto currencies would be useful. But crypto currencies are crazy and you will see your "investment" grow and shrink multiple times a day by vast percentages, so it is really only a useful long term idea.

Or so I think. As always, these are just my opinions and worth about as much as you paid for them ;)
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Halfapint » Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:19 pm

woodsghost wrote:But if my wife's family said "take this money and invest it in silver" I would not hesitate. If that is what she wants, I think it is a fair request and might even really save your bacon later if things really go sideways. Maybe investing a little in a few crypto currencies would be useful. But crypto currencies are crazy and you will see your "investment" grow and shrink multiple times a day by vast percentages, so it is really only a useful long term idea.
While I would agree, it IS her money. We both agreed to throw it in the bank for now, and buy it slowly, not just throw thousands into buying silver. The thing with looking at silver is that it dropped, hard, in 2008. down to some of the lowest it's been. What happened in 2008? Yep the recession. So will silver hold it's value if we have another major recession? I'm doubtful.

The other thing to think about, is what you touched on. I don't want to get into it much because it will hit the politics a bit, but trade wars are no good. I just read an article about a US steel company going out of business because they lost 90% of their business. Yep, China was 90% of their business, with China gone no one is buying his steel. Soybean farmers are next. Mexico who's a MAJOR buyer of a lot of our food products, has been slowly sourcing away from us. Add on top of that the price per barrel of oil has tripled since early 2016 (low of $26/barrel). We are going to see a major hurting on our farmers this year. This could in fact effect the worlds bread basket (us) to the point of economic down turn and famine spreading in places.

What's this have to do with the price of gold (or silver) well you may see prices start to bottom out. So it might be prudent to hold off right now and fulfill her wishes at a later point. When silver is much cheaper.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by raptor » Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:58 pm

The following is a not investment advice but rather opinion.
I have never been a gold or silver bug. The performance of both over the last five years has simply reinforced that opinion. My overall opinion about PMs has not changed in that I view them as a good alternative investment.

However it is an investment that should be contemplated only after all other types of Investments have been obtained. That and the holding value in the overall portfolio value should be low.

My problem with PMs is that it does not earn dividends rent or interest. I am also not convinced it is a good inflation hedge anymore.

I would suggest only a small portion be used for silver with the balance being invested in something safe and easy to access, for instance a certificate of deposit. Interest rates are starting to climb and likely will continue to climb. However the interest rate of a CD will not offset inflation but then neither will PMs. If you assume a 3 to 5% inflation rate look at the price of gold and silver and see for yourself that it has not gone up consistently between 2010 and 2018.

Contrary to popular myth it is not a stable investment. It is actually an extremely volatile commodity. All you have to do is look at the daily price change in it to see this tremendous volatility.

My $.02.

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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Asymetryczna » Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:44 pm

Concur. I use to really like PMs and tried to buy a little bit here and there. Once I binged a bit against the missus' wishes and that was the last time. Then, gold and silver rose to over $300 and $6 an ounce respectively and I had to stop. Too much demand. Too expensive.
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I completely 100% agree with Raptor. I am not a financial advisor but I do not rely on PMs for my livelihood or support. In a TEOTWAWKI scenario or post disaster it would be much more important, as Moab says below, to have on hand and care for supplies that will keep you alive. Prepare for the worse case scenario so to speak. There's other considerations as well, such as that one scrimshaw pipe that had been handed down from menfolk in your family for generations. Room for a little box of ingots or that pipe, how do you choose?

With regard to barter how could one possibly know what market would develop? Tulips may become the most sought after item in the world. Pain killers or other medicine that people depend upon. I have used both gold and silver to trade but this was in permissive and semi permissive markets outside of the U.S. and always as a kicker. By kicker I mean, for example, that a fine, handmade carpet was being sold as $4000 but this price was laughed at and $200 was offered. Over 15 minutes of discussion leads to a drop in the price to $2000. When the 1/4 Eagle is introduced everyone passes it around. The carpet sells for $250 and the coin, valued to me at $90. It still had intrinsic value you see; money was still being used for commerce. (As an aside, every single one of us that bought those had them stolen from our personal effects on our next PCS move.) The moral of the story is that gold is worth the same thing now that it was when Christopher Columbus discovered America. Nothing. What another man thinks its worth. Everything. If I carried it I wouldn't let anyone see it until that time when I was willing to part ways with it. And of course I have none
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by gundogs » Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:37 am

I like the fact that gold and silver have been recognized as "money" for thousands of years.
Not one paper currency has survived for long

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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by JayceSlayn » Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:15 am

From my limited knowledge and research, gold seems to be historically more stable than silver as a store of value, but both are generally only stores of value as investments. Like others have noted: if you are considering investing in either gold or silver, unless you happen to get in and out with fantastic market timing, you will almost certainly be losing money compared to many other potential "safe"/"low-yield" investments.

Drastic changes in mining output are usually rare, and the practical demand for both metals is relatively stable (meaning commercial and industrial consumption), so fundamentally their prices shouldn't be fluctuating wildly. The main drivers of big price changes in the recent past have all been due to speculators pushing them around. Still, the non-jewelry consumption of silver is a larger fraction of annual silver production compared to the non-jewelry consumption of annual gold production, and the above-ground reserves of silver would satisfy it's demand for a much shorter time than above-ground reserves of gold. That's to say that if, for whatever reason, demand rose significantly, or production dropped significantly, the price of silver is likely to change a lot more than gold.

I have a tiny bit of physical silver stored away, but no gold. My decision was based more on the practical uses of silver vs. gold, and I'm glad I didn't expect it to pay off as an investment, because I'd have been better off stashing that money in a 0.1% yield savings account. :lol: As far as my personal applications, gold has almost no non-jewelry applications, and silver has fairly limited non-jewelry applications. Even as an antimicrobial agent, silver can be replaced with copper for less cost, and nearly the same effects. I have it only because I like having it as a potentially useful material or barter item, but I can't justify it as a reasonable investment outside of an impending PAW.
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raptor
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by raptor » Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:39 am

To assist with the analysis if you go to Yahoo or Google Finance you can compare the price of gold and silver (note this does not include any premium you pay for coinage and purchase markup, it is just the market price) by using these ETF symbols.
These are not perfect but for analysis purposes they work. There are actually about a dozen different markets with as many prices. BTW whatever that price may be you can count on getting only between 99% to 95% of that price if you sell the gold or silver.

GLD is the ETF that mimics the price of gold.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLD?p=GLD

SLV is the ETF that mimics the price of silver.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SLV?p=SLV

If you use these symbols you can then apply other indexs like the DJI and S&P 500 to compare an investment in each at certain points in time. It also illustrates the volatility in value of both commodities.

One thing I would point out in 2008 when the markets went nuts the price for both cratered just like everything else. The only thing to have in the fall of 2008 to be safe was cash. However, if you purchased gold and silver at that low point in 2008 and sold at the high in 2010ish your gain would have been significant. That said if you did that you would be a PM trader not a long term holder of PMs.

BTW I would likewise note that if you purchased ~$110 in Bitcoin from your trading profits above and purchased the Bitcoin on Jan 1, 2012 @ $4.22 per unit, you would have 24 bit coin that today (assuming they were not stolen lost, overwritten or other wise still available) would be worth $163,779.84 today down from their peak @ $466,440.

I would note for the record in earlier postings I was not impressed by Bitcoins's potential. So much for my insight into such things. :clownshoes:

Caveat emptor.

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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Halfapint » Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:40 pm

Thanks Raptor! Great information, for the record I'm not convinced on buying silver. It was just an interesting conversation that she didn't want us to pay her back instead buy silver with it. I personally (pretty sure I said it in my post) think it would be better spent in a private savings account. Our credit union gives us 6.0% interest, that would return a lot more money then buying silver with it.

I only say we would do it because technically it's not "our" money, it's to be paid back to her. If she prefer us to do that then give it back I'd say we have to honor that wish. But again its almost free money/silver regardless.
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