Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Stercutus » Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:44 pm

Halfapint wrote:I don't know I can't say anything for certain because there is food all over the world. Even Somalia during the drought had millions of tons of aid. The problem is distribution, not a lack of food. Not saying you are incorrect, but I don't think there's a real good similarity to a world wide PAW and places that are low on resources.
There may be food all over the world but there are plenty of places where there is not enough of it. But, look at history then. Point to any example where there has been widespread famine and gold which had been valuable, became worthless.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by ineffableone » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:02 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Halfapint wrote:I don't know I can't say anything for certain because there is food all over the world. Even Somalia during the drought had millions of tons of aid. The problem is distribution, not a lack of food. Not saying you are incorrect, but I don't think there's a real good similarity to a world wide PAW and places that are low on resources.
There may be food all over the world but there are plenty of places where there is not enough of it. But, look at history then. Point to any example where there has been widespread famine and gold which had been valuable, became worthless.
Most every single gold rush of US history had a time where gold was worthless. When the food runs out you can't buy a moldy stale piece of bread for a pound of gold. Most of the gold rushes had at least one or two hard winters where people were stuck in places with not enough supplies. They had plenty of gold, but there was no one selling food for them to buy. So yes there are historic examples of gold becoming worthless.

It doesn't take citing historic examples however, it only takes common sense to understand that any form of nonfunctional currency will become worthless if there is not enough functional goods to survive.

I don't care if you offer me 3 tons of gold for my can of beans, if that is my last can of beans your not getting it.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Stercutus » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:17 pm

ineffableone wrote:
Stercutus wrote:
Halfapint wrote:I don't know I can't say anything for certain because there is food all over the world. Even Somalia during the drought had millions of tons of aid. The problem is distribution, not a lack of food. Not saying you are incorrect, but I don't think there's a real good similarity to a world wide PAW and places that are low on resources.
There may be food all over the world but there are plenty of places where there is not enough of it. But, look at history then. Point to any example where there has been widespread famine and gold which had been valuable, became worthless.
Most every single gold rush of US history had a time where gold was worthless. When the food runs out you can't buy a moldy stale piece of bread for a pound of gold. Most of the gold rushes had at least one or two hard winters where people were stuck in places with not enough supplies. They had plenty of gold, but there was no one selling food for them to buy. So yes there are historic examples of gold becoming worthless.

It doesn't take citing historic examples however, it only takes common sense to understand that any form of nonfunctional currency will become worthless if there is not enough functional goods to survive.

I don't care if you offer me 3 tons of gold for my can of beans, if that is my last can of beans your not getting it.
That is not what happened. The issue there was mass inflation due to scarcity coupled with a short term over abundance of gold. There won't be an overabundance of gold during a disaster unless it occurs right next to an operating gold mine.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:20 pm

Stercutus wrote:
ineffableone wrote: Most every single gold rush of US history had a time where gold was worthless. When the food runs out you can't buy a moldy stale piece of bread for a pound of gold. Most of the gold rushes had at least one or two hard winters where people were stuck in places with not enough supplies. They had plenty of gold, but there was no one selling food for them to buy. So yes there are historic examples of gold becoming worthless.

It doesn't take citing historic examples however, it only takes common sense to understand that any form of nonfunctional currency will become worthless if there is not enough functional goods to survive.

I don't care if you offer me 3 tons of gold for my can of beans, if that is my last can of beans your not getting it.
That is not what happened. The issue there was mass inflation due to scarcity coupled with a short term over abundance of gold. There won't be an overabundance of gold during a disaster unless it occurs right next to an operating gold mine.
How can you know what the value of gold would be in a closed market that doesn't yet exist? Emphasis: closed market.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Stercutus » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:44 pm

Doctorr Fabulous wrote:
Stercutus wrote:
ineffableone wrote: Most every single gold rush of US history had a time where gold was worthless. When the food runs out you can't buy a moldy stale piece of bread for a pound of gold. Most of the gold rushes had at least one or two hard winters where people were stuck in places with not enough supplies. They had plenty of gold, but there was no one selling food for them to buy. So yes there are historic examples of gold becoming worthless.

It doesn't take citing historic examples however, it only takes common sense to understand that any form of nonfunctional currency will become worthless if there is not enough functional goods to survive.

I don't care if you offer me 3 tons of gold for my can of beans, if that is my last can of beans your not getting it.
That is not what happened. The issue there was mass inflation due to scarcity coupled with a short term over abundance of gold. There won't be an overabundance of gold during a disaster unless it occurs right next to an operating gold mine.
How can you know what the value of gold would be in a closed market that doesn't yet exist? Emphasis: closed market.
You can't. You can't even reliably say what gas will cost tomorrow per gallon down the street.

But that still does not make the "Gold Rushes" famines.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by ineffableone » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:50 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Doctorr Fabulous wrote:
Stercutus wrote:
ineffableone wrote: Most every single gold rush of US history had a time where gold was worthless. When the food runs out you can't buy a moldy stale piece of bread for a pound of gold. Most of the gold rushes had at least one or two hard winters where people were stuck in places with not enough supplies. They had plenty of gold, but there was no one selling food for them to buy. So yes there are historic examples of gold becoming worthless.

It doesn't take citing historic examples however, it only takes common sense to understand that any form of nonfunctional currency will become worthless if there is not enough functional goods to survive.

I don't care if you offer me 3 tons of gold for my can of beans, if that is my last can of beans your not getting it.
That is not what happened. The issue there was mass inflation due to scarcity coupled with a short term over abundance of gold. There won't be an overabundance of gold during a disaster unless it occurs right next to an operating gold mine.
How can you know what the value of gold would be in a closed market that doesn't yet exist? Emphasis: closed market.
You can't. You can't even reliably say what gas will cost tomorrow per gallon down the street.

But that still does not make the "Gold Rushes" famines.
So you would sell your last can of beans for the right price in gold is what your saying.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Halfapint » Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:58 pm

These are all isolated or "closed" as doc fab said.... Sure in a closed market such as the Yukon, gold may have been worthless, but gold as a whole was still very much valuable.

But as I stated in earlier gold may not be great for a mid point commodity. Short term sure, long term sure. But that point where food/water starts to dwindle gold will hold very little value except to those who have resources. Though as a whole I think gold is still something if you have EVERYTHING else prepped, you have a year of water, food, tp, and coffee, along with no debt and owe no one. Sure invest in some gold, or invest in something to GET gold.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Stercutus » Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:11 pm

ineffableone wrote:
So you would sell your last can of beans for the right price in gold is what your saying.

Absolutely. Beans are too gassy, I'd be eating the tuna anyway.

Don't forget who got rich off the Gold Rushes.

Hint: Not the miners.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by manowar1313 » Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:26 pm

I think there's two major fundamental ideas going on here. On the one hand everyone knows gold is valuable, for long term financial stability it's really the golden standard. On the other hand, in a real SHTF situation where money is burned as heat, there isn't going to be a market for gold.

So the real question is how bad do you think it's going to get? Bad like Detroit or Stalingrad circa 1942.

I personally don't keep any gold, I honestly can't afford right now as a student, so on my list of preps it's somewhere between atomic weapons and unicorn tears.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by woodsghost » Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:32 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Absolutely. Beans are too gassy, I'd be eating the tuna anyway.

Don't forget who got rich off the Gold Rushes.

Hint: Not the miners.
As Halfapint said, that makes sense if you are already supplied. If you are looking at either selling all your food and dying that winter, or keeping your food and living to see next spring, then you will probably choose to keep your food. But if you have a surplus of food, and will see spring, then of course you sell and make bank!
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Stercutus » Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:42 pm

On the other hand, in a real SHTF situation where money is burned as heat, there isn't going to be a market for gold.
As pointed out, no one knows. It is merely conjecture without any premise and a lot of counterexamples. Just because money is being burned for heat Zimbabwe style does not make gold worthless.
I personally don't keep any gold, I honestly can't afford right now as a student, so on my list of preps it's somewhere between atomic weapons and unicorn tears.
This is a true for a lot of people. However, just because something is "piss you off" unaffordable does not suddenly make it universally worthless.
But if you have a surplus of food, and will see spring, then of course you sell and make bank!
Yup. And who here would not have a surplus of food? Nobody thinking ahead which is kind of the whole point.

Short of an irradiated planet shit will get moving again at some point. If it never does it won't matter anyway. We will all be dead.

Sometimes I wonder if an alien archaeologist will be reading all this stuff in the distant future and just laughing their asses off.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by woodsghost » Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:54 pm

Stercutus wrote: Sometimes I wonder if an alien archaeologist will be reading all this stuff in the distant future and just laughing their asses off.
Probably. This is pretty good shit.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by manowar1313 » Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:58 pm

Stercutus wrote:
I personally don't keep any gold, I honestly can't afford right now as a student, so on my list of preps it's somewhere between atomic weapons and unicorn tears.
This is a true for a lot of people. However, just because something is "piss you off" unaffordable does not suddenly make it universally worthless.
Of course and I by no means meant to belittle anyone who is prepping gold. Right now what little money I have goes towards other preps. I think it's been well established that if you can afford it, do it, but you should have your other preps in order first. Since I personally can't equip and feed an army I'm focusing on more realistic goals.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:03 pm

Stercutus wrote: Yup. And who here would not have a surplus of food? Nobody thinking ahead which is kind of the whole point.
People who spent too much on gold/PMs and not enough on food?
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by duodecima » Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:18 pm

raptor wrote:Ok but then lets say you own such an orchard today and you have excess capital to invest. Would'nt be wise to put a small portion of that excess capital into PMs to in effect hedge your ability to say, pay your property taxes on the orchard? That to me is the place gold has in a portfolio. A hedge against the unknown that is totally different from other assets you may hold.
manowar1313 wrote:So the real question is how bad do you think it's going to get? Bad like Detroit or Stalingrad circa 1942.
And since none of us have an actual clue about that, it's rational to diversify preps and hedge against both if one is able.

In my case, I'm a hell of a way from being a poor student, but filling that particular niche in the preps still hasn't risen to the top of the priority list. But I don't expect my priority list is or should be identical to anyone else's.
woodsghost wrote:And thanks for the point that the rich and powerful will always want to display their wealth in some way, and for that purpose, PMs will always have some measure of value. I don't understand rich people. [snip] I think my head is in a very different place. :rofl:
Yeah, me too, but whatever asset the 'rich' person who wanted the gold traded to me for it is still something I apparently wanted, so hopefully we're both happy. It's like the stock market - when you're buying, remember you're buying from somebody who's equally convinced it's time to sell, and vice versa.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Halfapint » Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:27 pm

Doctorr Fabulous wrote:People who spent too much on gold/PMs and not enough on food?
In my case (sure it may be small) I spent $600 or so on my slucing equipment and I've gotten a lot of gold out of it. I spent that 600 on something the ex and I enjoyed doing so it really want a waste, and we never thought we'd get anything out of it. But I've gotten enough that I'd definitely worth my while.

Now, at this point in time I would NEVER go out and spend money on gold that I could use for other preps right now. I'm not student poor, but I'm a VERY long way from being where I want. If things start to go down and but it hasn't gotten to a total SHTF people may abandon paper currency in which case an ounce of gold could be used to buy quite a bit of last minute preps. The gold may not be worth as much, but it could also be worth a lot more because people may think things turn around quickly.

I don't know, I just like to keep the conversation going because it's an interesting thought experiment.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by Browning 35 » Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:56 pm

manowar1313 wrote:I think there's two major fundamental ideas going on here. On the one hand everyone knows gold is valuable, for long term financial stability it's really the golden standard. On the other hand, in a real SHTF situation where money is burned as heat, there isn't going to be a market for gold.

So the real question is how bad do you think it's going to get? Bad like Detroit or Stalingrad circa 1942.

I personally don't keep any gold, I honestly can't afford right now as a student, so on my list of preps it's somewhere between atomic weapons and unicorn tears.
That's pretty much the point I was going for.

What scenarios are you preparing for as an individual? How bad will it get and are you planning on sticking around past the time when it would have been wise to leave?

If you were in Stalingrad in '42 and a foreign army is streaming across your country and you actually still had gold (a feat in and of itself) your best bet probably would have been to bribe some party officials, get the appropriate travel documents and train ticket and take off to either to east of the Urals or get the fuck out of the country altogether. Buying a metric ton of food as your apartment collective gets bombed into rubble or the city descends into starvation doesn't sound like a winning strategy.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by procyon » Fri Aug 29, 2014 5:17 am

I'm not hugely into PM's. They have value, but as Raptor pointed out very well - it does absolutely nothing for you except hold that value in a portable package. So if you have spare wealth you can afford to have 'not working for you', it makes sense.

I prefer land over PMs, but as a farmer it is my bread and butter. It pays for itself and supports me, which gold won't do.
And here in Iowa (at least), land is far outstripping gold in holding and increasing its value. What sold for $500 (an acre) 20 years ago is anywhere between $10k and $15k at the moment (although I don't expect that to last indefinitely).

And like PMs, land is a pretty fixed resource. They aren't making anymore.
And it was fought over, just like PMs. Still is.

But if you forsee a time when you may need to pick up and run, PMs will allow you to do things and hold value while you move. But this means someone else can also pick it up and take off with it.
Land isn't portable. If you have to leave, it isn't going to follow you. But I don't spend much time worrying if someone is going to jump a fence and steal 5 acres while I'm not home either.

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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by CrossCut » Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:11 pm

Bought most of my gold and silver prepping for Y2k (hey, it could've happened...), haven't added much since as it's just raising my dollar cost average and I'm pretty comfortable with the amount of PMs hidden away now. In hindsight, I know I bought it too early from the standpoint of having other preps squared away first, but also glad I did considering their price now.

Where I see PMs having the most value for survival is for events between the severity of something like Katrina and those in "The Road". In all likelihood, IMO anyway, once you have plans/preps for the basic necessities of survival in a longer-term regional or nationwide disaster (the beans, bullets, bandaids, and BOLs if you prefer) and start asking yourself questions like "how would I pay for an appendectomy for my son?", "how can I make sure my family gets evacuated to safety in the first group?", or "how much would it cost to pay off a corrupt judge on some trumped-up charge?" - that's where the answer is probably "gold". Hell, maybe you'll just need an extra Fuel Ration card or need to pay the Hoarder's Tax.

Preparing would be a lot easier if we knew the exact nature of the threat, but since I don't, I sleep better having PMs stashed away to cover things I might need after the fact.

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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by nolongpork » Fri Aug 29, 2014 1:01 pm

Here is a bit of a mind bender price you land Stocks gas chickens etc. in gold ounces and not US dollars then you have a fair comparison to the relative appreciation. Devaluation of a paper currency does not mean the commodity or investment value has risen, it just takes more paper to buy it.

That is the thing about gold and silver it holds its value as paper is inflated and deflated around it. you can say the same thing with almost all commodities, it is hard to buy a ticket out of the SHTF zone with your purse full of chickens.

At the very beginning of a collapse and after an economy comes back Gold and silver has been the means of purchase till people try to print value out of paper once again.

Zimbabwe hyperinflation bread was selling for (1) 1/10 gram of gold at time I heard of that I did the math that worked out to $2.85 US dollars.

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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by procyon » Fri Aug 29, 2014 6:59 pm

nolongpork wrote: it is hard to buy a ticket out of the SHTF zone with your purse full of chickens.
True.

I just wish my gold would make more of itself like my chickens do. :crazy:
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by woodsghost » Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:18 pm

procyon wrote:
nolongpork wrote: it is hard to buy a ticket out of the SHTF zone with your purse full of chickens.
True.

I just wish my gold would make more of itself like my chickens do. :crazy:
What? Your gold does not reproduce itself? Try putting some Viagra in there with it. Worked for me. Now I have nuggets everywhere. I hear rhinoceros ivory works too.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by 2now » Sun Aug 31, 2014 11:40 am

On thing I have not heard is that gold will also represent hope. We all have experience with money and know that currency based economies work. We will miss currency and want to have it back.

When gold has value that is because somebody somewhere is doing well enough that money matters, and we think we can get to that place. In a harsh world [without the internet] that will be a common and popular rumor that people will want to believe is true.

"Did you hear that Prince Edward Island was never hit by the Z virus? They have government, power and medical care. They are taking refugees, but you have to buy your visa and they only trade in gold..."

If you have gold to trade you will not even need to start that rumor to create a market. It will already be there.

It is true that for very short periods of time, certain preps loose their value. On the Titanic, bullets, beans and bandaids had no value, boats were all that mattered. We can all image sceanarios where one prep of other has no value.

Having some bling in you BoB seems like a good idea.
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Re: Gold: Sacred Cow or Useful?

Post by woodsghost » Sun Aug 31, 2014 1:43 pm

2now wrote:On thing I have not heard is that gold will also represent hope. We all have experience with money and know that currency based economies work. We will miss currency and want to have it back.
That is an interesting idea with some interesting implications. I had not thought of that.
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