2020 Hurricane Season

Topics in this category pertain to planning. Discussions include how to prepare yourself, your family and your community for catastrophes and what you plan to do when they hit you.

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MPMalloy
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:11 pm

Is Laura still CAT 3?

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by boskone » Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:40 pm

She's a Cat4 now, and projected to make landfall as such.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:03 pm

boskone wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:40 pm
She's a Cat4 now, and projected to make landfall as such.
The "unsurvivable" clickbait is catching on :roll:

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by boskone » Wed Aug 26, 2020 5:48 pm

MPMalloy wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:03 pm
boskone wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:40 pm
She's a Cat4 now, and projected to make landfall as such.
The "unsurvivable" clickbait is catching on :roll:
Eh? Are people overreacting to it or something?

(Which seems like a strange thing to ask in regards to a hurricane, but I wouldn't put it past people.)

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Aug 26, 2020 5:49 pm

boskone wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 5:48 pm
MPMalloy wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:03 pm
boskone wrote:
Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:40 pm
She's a Cat4 now, and projected to make landfall as such.
The "unsurvivable" clickbait is catching on :roll:
Eh? Are people overreacting to it or something?

(Which seems like a strange thing to ask in regards to a hurricane, but I wouldn't put it past people.)
Just that it is so click-baity

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by raptor2 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:27 pm

It is a pretty impressive storm but yes the MSM is touting unsurvivable storm surge and certain death for everyone. Click bait city.

Granted if you are in Cameron, La you need to haul ass north ASAP. If you are between Lafayette and Beaumont you need to pay close attention to this puppy. If you are in Lake Charles be prepared to lose power for a few days.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by raptor2 » Thu Aug 27, 2020 8:22 am

All good here in NOLA. Lake Charles has been hit hard and the storm is still at cat 2 levels as I type this.

Lake Charles even though well inland is on a lake and and river so it did experience storm surge.
Link to article with photos of damage
https://www.theblaze.com/news/frighteni ... -laurafall
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by raptor2 » Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:44 am

A link to the storm surge:
https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnew ... 1200%2C768

Shreveport, LA is may get cat 1 level wind gusts. The Airport there is showing 25 kts @350 the wind started to shift westward @ 9am.
https://flightaware.com/resources/airport/KSHV/weather
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:41 pm

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020


1. A westward-moving tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Although environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, they are forecast to gradually become more favorable over the weekend and into early next week when the wave moves into the central and then western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


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whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:22 am

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whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by raptor2 » Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:53 pm

An update on Nana.

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And this looks like a great path for #15...


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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Mon Sep 07, 2020 1:39 pm

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic - www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Paulette - and on Tropical Depression Eighteen, located just east of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic basin on this Monday afternoon, an area of low pressure is located just southwest of Bermuda, producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves generally westward or west-northwestward. It has a low (30 percent) chance of formation during the next five days.

Also, a tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa late Wednesday or Thursday. Gradual development is anticipated once the system moves over water, and a tropical depression could form late this week or during the weekend while the system moves generally westward across the eastern Atlantic. It has a medium (50 percent) chance of formation during the next five days.


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whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:17 pm

Storm inbound my AO. We'll see what happens.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by manacheck » Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:30 am

Not a hurricane, but it's the season. Wyoming got hit with a "winter" storm statewide:

https://cowboystatedaily.com/2020/09/08 ... oss-state/
https://cowboystatedaily.com/2020/09/08 ... out-power/
The storm, the result of moisture coming into Wyoming from the west mixing with cold Arctic air, dropped temperatures from the 90s on Sunday to below freezing by Monday night.
The resulting snow, cold temperatures and brisk winds forced the closure of multiple Wyoming highways by Tuesday morning
The weather also caused power outages across the state.
It didn't register on my own news feed. Only know about it because UPS has a service alert out that delivery/shipping is still presently delayed in 13 counties: https://www.ups.com/us/en/service-alerts.page?id=alert1

Fedex has nothing to say about Wyoming, but indicates TX and LA are continuing to experience hazardous conditions, incoming/outgoing delays and disruptions: https://www.fedex.com/en-us/service-alerts.html
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:10 pm

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center -

NHC is watching several other areas on this Wednesday evening. One is a small low pressure area located about 240 miles southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina, has become less organized since yesterday. The low is forecast to move northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and some development is still possible before it moves inland over eastern North Carolina Thursday afternoon. Interests along the coasts of North and South Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. It has a low (20 percent) chance of formation during the next five days.

There's a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a couple of hundred miles northeast of the Central Bahamas. This system is forecast to drift westward and will likely be in the vicinity of the Florida peninsula on Friday. Afterward, upper-level conditions could become conducive for some development this weekend while the system drifts west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It has a low (20 percent) chance of formation during the next five days.


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whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:39 pm


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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:16 am

NHC has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outook to update the discussion and development potential for the area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas.

The shower & thunderstorm activity located over the northwestern and central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continue to shows signs of organization. In addition, surface observations indicate that pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday and, along with wind data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.

This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The disturbance could become a tropical depression while it is near South Florida tonight, but it is more likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. It has a medium (60 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a high (70 percent) chance during the next five days.



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whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:49 am

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whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

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RickOShea
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:39 pm

Heads-up GOM....now Tropical Depression 19....


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whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

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RickOShea
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:16 pm

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whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by raptor2 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:03 am

Battening down the hatches and making sure the bilge pumps work here. As along as this stays a sub cat 3 we should not get hit too hard in NOLA. The rain however is likely to cause street flooding in many areas of Orleans Parish. Jefferson Parish is prepared.

Orleans Parish said and I quote "Since we tested the generators 2 weeks ago and they worked then there is no need to test them again." These are the generators that are power back up for the main drainage pumps. They are operated by the same group 2 years ago who blamed global warming for flooding the city and claimed that all "operational pumps were working" and claimed it was not due to the fact that only 75% of pumps were operational due to improper R&M. :roll:
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:17 pm

Ugh....Sally doesn't know where she wants to go....or when. :ooh:

The Euro model is now showing it just sitting stationary off the coast for 24 hours, and not making landfall until possibly Wednesday afternoon.
whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:25 pm


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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:27 pm

Sally curb-stomped us pretty good. I'd say, as far as damage to the powerlines goes, she was twice as bad as Ivan back in '04....even though Ivan was a stronger storm. Sally's agonizingly slow approach and rainfall saturated the ground pretty good, and trees went down everywhere. Our engineers say we had around 2000 broke poles, and close to 4000 spans of wire down....and many of them were the big, stout three-phase poles with 4/0 or .652 wire.

Immediately after the storm, all 75,000 of our accounts/meters were out, and only 5 of our 22 distribution substations had power from the transmission lines. We have 75 Linemen and 30 or so Right-Of-Way techs at our company, but we have been augmented by around 1100 Linemen and 300 ROW techs from 12 different States. Latest update we have over 63,000 of our 75,000 accounts back on.

Out at the OShea Armadillo Ranch & Coyote Preserve, things aren't too bad. All the houses and structures made it thru fairly undamaged, but I have four large pecan trees and three big pine trees down in the yards. I haven't had the chance to ride the trails to see what's down on the rest of the property. A group from church is supposed to come by and cut-up the trees down by the houses....which will be nice, cause I'm thinking it will be another week or so before we go back to regular hours and days off.

Anyway....back to the grind.
whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

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