Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NT2C » Thu May 21, 2020 11:10 am

woodsghost wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 10:29 am
NT2C wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 8:07 am
Stercutus wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 1:40 pm
I'd like to discuss it but we can't. I will tell you under current economic, political and social conditions it is impossible to restore the US economy. It isn't just one small thing or another black swan event.
"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largesse out of the public treasury. After that the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits, with the result the economy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy." - Alexander Fraser Tytler

And that is the absolute limit of political discussion we'll be allowing. In fact, I may have to go have a stern word with myself about this. :crazy:
What did Tytler say about Republics? Cuz the US doesn't have a Democracy, largely for those exact reasons. And other reasons.

But on the issue of Democracies, I have to agree with Tytler.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Thu May 21, 2020 4:25 pm

NT2C wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 8:07 am
Stercutus wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 1:40 pm
I'd like to discuss it but we can't. I will tell you under current economic, political and social conditions it is impossible to restore the US economy. It isn't just one small thing or another black swan event.
"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largesse out of the public treasury. After that the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits, with the result the economy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy." - Alexander Fraser Tytler

And that is the absolute limit of political discussion we'll be allowing. In fact, I may have to go have a stern word with myself about this. :crazy:
Tocqueville wrote a lengthy warning about the same thing in two books in Democracy in America. Tytler was wrong of course. He and everyone alive in his day are dead and the country sort of perseveres. Nothing of course is permanent, but from his perspective it may as well have been. Our perspective remains to be seen.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor2 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:50 pm

Today the BLS published employment figures that were actually surprisingly good in that over 3 million people returned to work in May 2020.

That said IMO that is a rounding error on the total unemployment count.

Still I will take any good news that I can get these days.

A quick analysis of these figures shows the following big movers:

Leisure and hospitality gained 1,239,000 million jobs with the cast majority tied to re-opening of restaurants. (~40%)
Dentists reopened their offices and gained 244,800 jobs (~8%)
Retail trade gained 367,000 jobs (~11%) (car dealers, dept stores & clothing stores)
Construction 464,000 jobs (~15%)

Government lost 585,000 employees but most (~63%) were in education which occurs each year when schools/universities close for the summer.

So when adding back this seasonal job reduction, the numbers are better than anyone expected or even hoped.

Source:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:50 pm

I imagine contracting will be doing well later this year or new construction in the burbs with cities never being rebuilt. Glad the dentists are back up and running.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor2 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:01 pm

Then there is this story:
https://wbbm780.radio.com/articles/mayo ... on-chicago

I would note that after Katrina many retailers 15 years later still have not re-opened stores in many parts of the city.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by boskone » Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:18 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:01 pm
Then there is this story:
https://wbbm780.radio.com/articles/mayo ... on-chicago
I dunno how to feel about that.

On the one hand, Walmart is a decent--not great, not good, but decent--resource for lower-income people. Groceries are pretty good, clothes are wearable but IME seem to wear out faster, etc.

On the other hand, both for general economic as well as personal reasons I wish Walmart would suddenly go bankrupt somehow. For general economic reasons, they have a decidedly depressive effect on local retail economies; that can really hurt small towns in particular: you get stuff cheaper, but that money leaves the area faster. For personal reasons, they broke my oil pan back in the early aughts, and refused to replace it; my broke-ass college self had to shell out over a thousand bucks. (I haven't, willingly, shopped at a Walmart or Sam's Club since.)

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor2 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 5:18 pm

Think of the question based upon:
1. Sales tax collection
2. Property tax payments
3. Employment/jobs
4. Payroll taxes for the employees

If Walmart closed nationwide Mom & Pop would benefit somewhat (the ones still surviving at least) but the clear winner there would be Amazon (& Target if it survived).

If Wallyword simply pulls out of the City of Chicago market but stays in IL; the consumers who could would drive the nearest alternative which most likely would not be in the Chicago boundary and all of the sales tax would go to that political subdivision along with the jobs, payroll & property taxes.

In towns where Walmart (& Dollar General) came in and opened up they devastated many of the local merchants. When those stores subsequently closed, there was no reopening of smaller mom & pop stores. There was simply a hole in the economy and goods offered.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd-leaving

Make no mistake we have witnessed a great transfer of wealth in 2020. Amazon won that war while Walmart and Target also scored. mom and pop retail? They got the bill.

Dollar General already won the rural market fight a long time ago.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ven-kansas
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Fri Jun 05, 2020 6:02 pm

Dollar General already won the rural market fight a long time ago.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ven-kansas
DG is so much better than Walmart it isn't even funny. There is no crowd, hardly any criminals, no wait at the register, you ask somebody where something is and they actually know where it is. All those things that Walmart says they just have to buy from communist China because America doesn't make them anymore DG somehow finds them domestically. Prices are better and sales are real sales. You don't have to walk 1/4 mile between groceries and toothpaste. The staff are friendly and helpful and don't have that tired and scared look that Walmart employees have. True, they don't have everything but what they don't have I still don't have to go to Walmart to get.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by woodsghost » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:14 pm

boskone wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:18 pm
raptor2 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:01 pm
Then there is this story:
https://wbbm780.radio.com/articles/mayo ... on-chicago
I dunno how to feel about that.

On the one hand, Walmart is a decent--not great, not good, but decent--resource for lower-income people. Groceries are pretty good, clothes are wearable but IME seem to wear out faster, etc.

On the other hand, both for general economic as well as personal reasons I wish Walmart would suddenly go bankrupt somehow. For general economic reasons, they have a decidedly depressive effect on local retail economies; that can really hurt small towns in particular: you get stuff cheaper, but that money leaves the area faster. For personal reasons, they broke my oil pan back in the early aughts, and refused to replace it; my broke-ass college self had to shell out over a thousand bucks. (I haven't, willingly, shopped at a Walmart or Sam's Club since.)
Your feelings toward Walmart echo my feelings toward Amazon. I have not bought from them in years. I find another website or shop local. I'm trying to do more local shopping. But some parts are just niche parts.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:29 pm



I don't understand the one below. Maybe someone could drop the CDT on me/us.


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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:13 pm

I don't understand the one below. Maybe someone could drop the CDT on me/us.
I didn't watch the video but there are lots of ways to not pay taxes. These range from running your own business, to making under the threshold amounts and going to prison.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Jun 06, 2020 4:09 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:13 pm
I don't understand the one below. Maybe someone could drop the CDT on me/us.
I didn't watch the video but there are lots of ways to not pay taxes. These range from running your own business, to making under the threshold amounts and going to prison.
I'm only interested in the legal/lawful part of not being taxed.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:05 pm

MPMalloy wrote:
Sat Jun 06, 2020 4:09 pm
Stercutus wrote:
Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:13 pm
I don't understand the one below. Maybe someone could drop the CDT on me/us.
I didn't watch the video but there are lots of ways to not pay taxes. These range from running your own business, to making under the threshold amounts and going to prison.
I'm only interested in the legal/lawful part of not being taxed.
Quit your job, go on the government dole. When the time come steal a Lexus during a riot. You won't have to pay taxes on nuthin and looting during a riot now passes for permissible.

Ok, that might be sarcasm, but only just barely.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:35 am

You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
I go through

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:15 pm


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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:18 pm


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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:08 pm

What? Just yesterday we were cheering 14% unemployment. What happened?
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by woodsghost » Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:20 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:08 pm
What? Just yesterday we were cheering 14% unemployment. What happened?
Different glasses make you see the world differently?
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor2 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:47 pm

Now of course no one would trade on insider information...that would be illegal...with that thought in mind, a person married to a US House of Representative complied with the law and disclosed a significant sale of Apple, Facebook and Visa stock shares in May.

Something to bear in mind if you are are considering buying shares in these companies.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/nancy- ... yptr=yahoo


He apparently bought options for these securities in February.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/nancy- ... cle_inline
Duco Ergo Sum


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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor2 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:47 pm

Now of course no one would trade on insider information...that would be illegal...with that thought in mind, a person married to a US House of Representative complied with the law and disclosed a significant sale of Apple, Facebook and Visa stock shares in May.

Something to bear in mind if you are are considering buying shares in these companies.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/nancy- ... yptr=yahoo


He apparently bought options for these securities in February as the market was tanking.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/nancy- ... cle_inline
Duco Ergo Sum


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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:56 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:47 pm
Now of course no one would trade on insider information...that would be illegal...with that thought in mind, a person married to a US House of Representative complied with the law and disclosed a significant sale of Apple, Facebook and Visa stock shares in May.

Something to bear in mind if you are are considering buying shares in these companies.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/nancy- ... yptr=yahoo


He apparently bought options for these securities in February as the market was tanking.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/nancy- ... cle_inline
Wow, he was crazy good at figuring out that people were suddenly going to need to use their Visa card to order lots of stuff on Amazon and spend more time on social media. What is even weirder is that is the same time those Republican dudes made some shady trades as well. It's almost like they all knew something.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor2 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:23 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:56 pm
Wow, he was crazy good at figuring out that people were suddenly going to need to use their Visa card to order lots of stuff on Amazon and spend more time on social media. What is even weirder is that is the same time those dudes made some shady trades as well. It's almost like they all knew something.
I assume you are talking about those 4 senators on the Intelligence committee including a certain CA senator who heads up that committee whose husband sold $6mm in stock...no she would never allow her husband (who acts as a real estate broker to the US .gov) to trade on insider information.

https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/03/20 ... nge-899304

To me the sale I referenced first appears to be profit taking vs. a statement on market direction since the options did have an expiration period. Except that he sold long positions rather than the options. A person that skilled at market timing would have held the long position long enough to get capital gain treatment for the transaction. To me that is a bearish sentiment from a "particularly skilled market timing expert"
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:36 am


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