Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

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Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by doitnstyle1 » Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:54 am

I just read this article today and pictured the scenarios I have read in books or seen in movies and read about in this forum.

http://io9.com/how-rats-turned-their-pr ... 1687584457

I would like to hear some of your opinions and what would the resilience of the human race be compared to rats in a cage.

What aspects of the human race do you feel could save or destroy us and the world in which we live?

As the world becomes more overcrowded, and resources become scarcer, how effective Mutually Assured Destruction (M.A.D.) in keeping the peace, if we were to use the Universe 25 model?

According to the Malthusian Theory and Universe 25 experiment, could the human race be resilient enough to overcome the "unrecoverable extinction" event found in Universe 25?

What is your opinion of the "beautiful ones"?
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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by Evan the Diplomat » Wed Feb 25, 2015 8:52 am

in short, it won't happen. However, in a "paradise" I think the biggest threat would be boredom and the kind of mischief people would get into.
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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by raptor » Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:59 am

I read that article and was going to post it for discussion. However I did not because it dawned on me that rats and humans while used in the scientific community are used and surrogates they really are not in this case.

I am not knocking the topic or the post It is worth discussing.


Here is my logic for why rats are not a good surrogates for humans in this case:

Humans engage in a variety of enrichment activities that rats do not. For instance, art, music, sports, flying, sailing, running, etc. Rats do not.

Humans work but most of us do not live to work but rather work to live. So long as work is in the picture there is a normal drive to succeed and excel. This drive results in disproportionate distribution of scares goods and fuels the natural "unlimited desires" in the human psyche. In effect the positive drive of ambition and to some extent the negative emotion of greed make humans desire to achieve more. Rats may experience this to some level but are not able to translate like humans can. Don't believe me look at the level achievement in the last 100 years. Granted there were a few productive impulses in there that spurred this level of achievement (like ww-1, ww-2 and the cold war) but you can still look at the base emotions to out achieve the opposition even there.

In short I do not see humans evolving into universe 25. I do see more population growth and that can lead to a far different out come but not to a universe 25.

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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by Myana » Thu Feb 26, 2015 1:29 pm

Actually, even rats were smart enough not to destroy themselves.

This particular experiment used mice, and they did destroy their social fabric. Calhoun's earlier experiments with rats resulted in a completely different outcome. The Norwegian rats did not overpopulate. Their population only rose to 200, then dropped to 150 rats who self-divided themselves into a dozen colonies. Apparently 12 rats is about the maximum that can live together without fighting. The rats hit that number and -- unlike the mice -- stabilized. (Details from Calhoun's Wikipedia page -- busy day and I haven't had a chance to fact-check them, so...)

I agree with Raptor's points. Enrichment activities, competition (in games, in gathering rare items), play... I think these are all things that would make humans more resilient. And, well, I'd hate to think that we'd be out-thought by rats. Though we might be. :)

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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by Thorne » Thu Feb 26, 2015 2:02 pm

Myana wrote:I agree with Raptor's points. Enrichment activities, competition (in games, in gathering rare items), play... I think these are all things that would make humans more resilient. And, well, I'd hate to think that we'd be out-thought by rats. Though we might be. :)
The population densities of slums around the world are quite high and even though crime runs rampant families still manage. I think one of the things we have going for us is the ability to conceptualize and subvert our instinctual behaviours when we see the potential for danger.

The big question is will we see it coming with enough headway to do anything about it... I'll personally feel a lot better for humanities chances once we have a functioning self sustaining off world colony.

The big 'flaw' I see in U25 is the unlimited food part of the setup, which subverted the Malthusian part of it all for me. The 'beautiful ones' brings to mind avoidant personality disorder...
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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by Mikeyboy » Thu Feb 26, 2015 2:45 pm

Fascinating article, thank for posting it.

This comment in the articles comment section sort of sums it up.
"Instead of a population problem, one could argue that Universe 25 had a fair distribution problem."

And that is it, our current reality in a nutshell.

The 1% of the 1% are the beautiful ones. They maintain control, have lost empathy, and the rest of us are rats killing each other.
Lets be honest if there is ever a Malthusian Event due to "peak food distribution" and over population of humans, The 3rd world will fight and kill each other first. Then the poor in the developed world, then the middle class, then the upper class.

All that will be left will be the uber rich and powerful who were able to shelter themselves from it all...problem is it will be all Chiefs and no Indians. You need workers, and builders to rebuild a lost society from scratch and to keep it running. Maybe the few that are left can reboot humanity in small 1700's style communities, but if they can't adapt to the lack of modern technology and re-create basic community services...they will eventually die off too.

I think its very possible, and I think that recent moves some big corporations are making to buy up water resources and farmable land around the world is a telltale sign that the rich and powerful will be "The Beautiful Ones"

http://www.newsweek.com/race-buy-worlds-water-73893

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/06/opini ... .html?_r=0
Last edited by Mikeyboy on Thu Feb 26, 2015 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by raptor » Thu Feb 26, 2015 2:46 pm

Thorne wrote: The big 'flaw' I see in U25 is the unlimited food part of the setup, which subverted the Malthusian part of it all for me. The 'beautiful ones' brings to mind avoidant personality disorder...

I agree with that point also. If you get the same thing whether or not you strive and work or goof off that IMO would make a huge difference in achievement/survival levels.

Now I have heard, and I think it has logic, that the last human invention will occur when a Star Trek style holodeck "is" invented. The ability to live in a world that is in aspects real to you could result in a U25 situation at least until the power goes out because everyone is living in a holodeck fantasy world. :D

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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by Mikeyboy » Thu Feb 26, 2015 3:07 pm

raptor wrote:
Thorne wrote: The big 'flaw' I see in U25 is the unlimited food part of the setup, which subverted the Malthusian part of it all for me. The 'beautiful ones' brings to mind avoidant personality disorder...

I agree with that point also. If you get the same thing whether or not you strive and work or goof off that IMO would make a huge difference in achievement/survival levels.

Now I have heard, and I think it has logic, that the last human invention will occur when a Star Trek style holodeck "is" invented. The ability to live in a world that is in aspects real to you could result in a U25 situation at least until the power goes out because everyone is living in a holodeck fantasy world. :D
Think about it for a second.

How many people in developed countries don't give a crap when they see children starving on TV in Africa and other parts of the world.

How many people do you see walk down a city street and right past homeless people laying on a sidewalk.

You see it some parts of the USA but a lot in some other countries where there is a wealth elite class and a lot of dirt poor people. The wealthy people live in walled off communities, some of which with slums nearby. The wealthy simply avoid the slums and keep their "slice of heaven" area protected.

U25 is not only an experiment on a collapse due to overpopulation, but it an experiment on how some may mental and socially respond to an event like this. Life is bad in your outside world, but you are able to create a small oasis. You hold that oasis, keep it safe for you and your friends and family...and most of all you avoid the crap going on outside and avoid contact with the rift-raft outside. You eventual lose empathy for the crumbling society outside, and at some point being sheltered from the society, you start losing social norms and go loony.

Please...in a PAW, its what most preppers are going to do anyway. However the uber rich are going to have significantly more resources than an average prepper.

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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by raptor » Thu Feb 26, 2015 5:31 pm

Mikeyboy wrote: Think about it for a second.

How many people in developed countries don't give a crap when they see children starving on TV in Africa and other parts of the world.

How many people do you see walk down a city street and right past homeless people laying on a sidewalk.

You see it some parts of the USA but a lot in some other countries where there is a wealth elite class and a lot of dirt poor people. The wealthy people live in walled off communities, some of which with slums nearby. The wealthy simply avoid the slums and keep their "slice of heaven" area protected.

U25 is not only an experiment on a collapse due to overpopulation, but it an experiment on how some may mental and socially respond to an event like this. Life is bad in your outside world, but you are able to create a small oasis. You hold that oasis, keep it safe for you and your friends and family...and most of all you avoid the crap going on outside and avoid contact with the rift-raft outside. You eventual lose empathy for the crumbling society outside, and at some point being sheltered from the society, you start losing social norms and go loony.

Please...in a PAW, its what most preppers are going to do anyway. However the uber rich are going to have significantly more resources than an average prepper.
Not sure I follow your point. I do not disagree with your statements however in U25 the population crashed and basically went extinct. That is not happening in the above cases.

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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by doitnstyle1 » Thu Feb 26, 2015 11:11 pm

All excellent points. Thank you. Thank you all for your input. In response to some of your posts I would like to remind you about the dark ages. We had a similar event when mostly the rich survived creating a vacuum of workers. The rich were somewhat held up in their castles while most of the population in Europe died off. There have been some very near extinction level events where it has been determined that human populations had dwindled down to a mere 10,000 lives left on this planet.

In response to the use of rats or mice as insufficient human analogs, I would like to remind everyone that we have not developed the limbic system or reptilian survival response beyond what it was tens of thousands of years ago. we have developed our intellectual capacity but we are still hard wired with instinctual and often violent tendencies in order to survive. One other factor that has not been mentioned and perhaps not thought about is the fact that humans can probably extinguish all life on this planet by a push of a button. Something the mice or rats were incapable of. Nuclear, chemical or Biological Extinction Level Events are very possible.

A sudden lack of resources can turn even the most cultured man into a savage. Make him hungry enough and he will probably eat his own children. I have seen the savagery with my own two eyes on a large scale. During deployments desperate people will trample anyone to get to food. They will fight like rats over it. Hell, they fight like rats over Black Friday sales. What do you think will happen when resources become scarce?

In today's society, are we not moving toward the "beautiful one's" lifestyle where more educated individuals are foregoing having children or waiting until financial security is achieved before having children, in turn reducing the viable population of non-dysfunctional society. All the while, dysfunctional families are overpopulating and putting a heavy strain on already limited resources.

I hate to throw in such a stupid reference but even I can't keep this out of my head. It's looking like like life imitating art in the movie Idiocracy.

In all we do know that we cannot sustain this way of living and we may already be at he verge of the tipping point on the scale.
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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by Myana » Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:09 am

That's an interesting historical analogy!

The collapse of the Roman Empire did cause a lot of deaths, but the thing that really nuked Europe's population was the arrival of smallpox in the 6th century (about 150-200 years after the sack of Rome). Still, the transition from Imperial to feudal society is a great example of how we're not mice.

Rome offered her people a sophisticated, bureaucratic, peaceful existence. When that shattered, people didn't stand there baffled and go extinct, like Calhoun's mice. (One of the reasons may be that we've never had a population so great that family-rearing stopped, like those mice did). Post-Rome, people kinda went Mad Max. Feudalism arose out of a protection racket, essentially. When Rome's armies melted away, armed men fortified locations (that would later become castles). They offered protection to non-fighters. In exchange, the non-fighters agreed to work the land and give honors and food to their protectors. Quickly, the non-fighters lost the right to travel. They weren't technically slaves, but they were tied to the land and forced to give almost all of their production to their armed overlords (ie, they became serfs).

It wasn't the rich who took over in the Dark Ages. It was the guys with the biggest, baddest weapons and military training (probably many were ex-Legionnaires). Most Dark Age lords traced their genealogy back to a warrior, a god, or an Emperor -- not one of Rome's wealthy Senatorial class.

So to turn this back to Calhoun's experiment, I think the critical difference is that there's never been a time or place where people stopped raising kids. As long as we can do that, we can bounce back from most anything. We also don't live in a Utopia. The mice had unlimited food and no outside attackers. In the real world, collapse of society = lack of food = arrival of armed people trying to grab what food is left. Mice also don't have technology or military training. Some mice are bigger than others, but it's not a huge advantage (say, against a swarm of smaller mice). Humans were able to concentrate skill and equipment in the hands of a few (by, for instance, making it illegal for serfs to own weapons). That created a three class system in which the armed people (knights) forced non-fighters to work for them (peasants/serfs). (Third class = the clergy, a more honored dependent class.)

In summary, if our society collapsed I think the Dark Ages is a more likely outcome than Calhoun's Mouse Apocalypse.

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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by Mikeyboy » Fri Feb 27, 2015 4:36 pm

raptor wrote:
Mikeyboy wrote: Think about it for a second.

How many people in developed countries don't give a crap when they see children starving on TV in Africa and other parts of the world.

How many people do you see walk down a city street and right past homeless people laying on a sidewalk.

You see it some parts of the USA but a lot in some other countries where there is a wealth elite class and a lot of dirt poor people. The wealthy people live in walled off communities, some of which with slums nearby. The wealthy simply avoid the slums and keep their "slice of heaven" area protected.

U25 is not only an experiment on a collapse due to overpopulation, but it an experiment on how some may mental and socially respond to an event like this. Life is bad in your outside world, but you are able to create a small oasis. You hold that oasis, keep it safe for you and your friends and family...and most of all you avoid the crap going on outside and avoid contact with the rift-raft outside. You eventual lose empathy for the crumbling society outside, and at some point being sheltered from the society, you start losing social norms and go loony.

Please...in a PAW, its what most preppers are going to do anyway. However the uber rich are going to have significantly more resources than an average prepper.
Not sure I follow your point. I do not disagree with your statements however in U25 the population crashed and basically went extinct. That is not happening in the above cases.
The beautiful people is a case of us and them, becoming complacent and looking out for yourself when your situation is good. Its like the citizens that lived outside of concentration camps during WWII. They knew people were dying in the concentration camp outside their town, and they knew that there was a war going on and people were dying. However their situation right there was OK so the simply blotted it all out like nothing is wrong and just lived life. The American troops came, and the citizens were more than willing to turn and Nazis and sympathizers. When questioned about the concentration camps by the allied troops, all they got back was a shrug. Its all a psychological defense mechanism to outside stressors. Sigmund Freud studied that their were 10 different unconscious defense mechanisms with coping with stress; 1. Repression, 2. Regression, 3. Reaction formation, 4. Isolation, 5. Undoing, 6. Projection, 7. Introjection, 8. Turning against one’s own person, 9. Reversal into the opposite, 10. Sublimation or displacement.

Isolation and repression is pretty obvious, but Regression: the falling back into an early state of mental/physical development seen as less demanding and safer, and the others are keys to the Beautiful ones eventual downfall. There are studies to suggest that high stress situation may lead to an impairment in the ability to learn in young children. Further that lessening of affection and care from parents and caregivers leads to stunted growth and behavioral changes in children.

http://www.nih.gov/news/health/aug2012/nichd-28.htm

http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/1998/06 ... ormon.html


I guess its hard to get an historic event, because humans never went extinct...but look at TWD. I know its fiction but just stick with me for a second. All hell is breaking loose outside. People like Abraham will crush your skull in for that can of food. Then you have little oasis like Woodbury, Terminus, the Prison, and Alexandria. At some point those little oases become warped and fracture from the inside.

The problem is with human civilization there was no worldwide problem that affected everyone yet. There was still movement of people from bad areas to good, and some outside places (Asia) were not affected by the dark ages. The U25 mice we all stuck in the same space dealing with the same event. Wall off a square mile of a newly built suburban neighborhood, move in a newlywed couple into each house. Each house will have power and water but no way to communicate with the outside world and only a limited supply of food to cover the nuturitional needs of that couple. It sound ok to live there on day 1... but what will happen in 100 years later?

It reminds me of "what if everyone in the world jumped at the same time" dilemma and how it would kill humanity. Magically move every human around the world to one centralized location on the planet. Having the world population standing in a crowd together in one spot, taking about 3 square feet per person, would take up the as much space as the state of Rhode Island. Have them all stand there and say on the count of 3 everyone jump....1....2....3....jump. Everyone jumps and a year later every human on earth will be dead. How did it happen?

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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by Zimmy » Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:02 pm

All the people would be too far from agricultural and critical infrastructure around the world. Society would collapse.

Or, they would knock the earth into a different orbit thus heating or cooling the planet depending on direction.

Much better to slowly accelerate to a trot then slam on the brakes. Timed correctly, we could moderate the season shift, lengthen or shorten the length of day. That's if the uh...maybe 1,300,000,000,000 pounds of moving man flesh didn't freak out the tectonic plates and rip the earth's crust asunder.
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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by doitnstyle1 » Sat Feb 28, 2015 7:01 pm

Myana- I think you are mixing histories. The fall of the Roman Empire happened around 400 AD culminating with the sacking of Rome. The dark ages started sometime around 1340 AD when the black death reduced the population of Europe by a third. Although many scholars believe the Dark Ages began with the fall of Rome, it is still observed that because the devastation set into motion by the black plague and the Crusades. the lack of able bodied persons accustomed to working in poor conditions kept human populations low and kept them from seeking artistic outlets. This ended about 1500 AD with the Italian Renaissance.

I did not however, take into consideration of the fall of Rome and the lack of benevolence that was removed from the European theater. There was some chaos that ensued I'm sure but I really wonder how soon did it balance out.
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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by doitnstyle1 » Sat Feb 28, 2015 7:21 pm

Another consideration s that we are generally an agrarian society. In the US we may be considered a consumerist society. We have one common learned skill and that is to shop for our food. Many of the population in this country alone do not know how to farm effectively. It is not generally throwing some seeds into the ground and waiting for it to grow. Hell I am pretty good at growing stuff and even I end up killing some garden plants.

The point is, We are so removed from an agrarian society that the only skill, the one we have hard wired in our heads is violence. The ability to kill something or someone else for food. Although food was provided for the mice they fought for territory which is a resource. As humans we would not have food provided and we still fight for resources. We would have to understand that in an agrarian dependent society during scarcity, violence will ensue as others will try to take your resource. Look at Mayans and Aztecs. Even though they were very civilized by those standards evidence showed that during famine or drought they turned to savagery.

What is our tipping point when we as a society have become so dependent on the store rather than the plow to provide us with goods? How fragile are we really when we look at other discussions on the board as we depend on Utilities, transportation and the internet to provide us with day to day sustenance? Once we remove the source of sustenance and we are required to depend more on ourselves what is our true learning curve getting beyond survival and getting out of new dark ages?
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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by Myana » Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:25 am

Doitnstyle1, sorry, that's not right.

"The Dark Ages" is an older/popular term for the early Middle Ages. Modern historians date it from the fall of Rome (around 400) lasting until either 800 (the end of the Migration Period, when the Germanic tribes spread throughout Europe) or 1000 (the beginning of the High Middle Ages, when medieval culture began to flourish). During this period, the combination of smallpox plagues, invading 'barbarians', and transition from imperial to feudal society did squelch most art and literature. (Hence the term 'Dark' Age.) Very little writing or art of note exists from this period.

The Black Death ravaged Europe in 1348-1350 -- but it definitely did not trigger a dark age of any sort. Nor did the Crusades. Quite the opposite: the Renaissance began in 1375, a mere 25 years after the end of the Black Death. The Crusading Period (roughly 1096-1192, with some gaps in there) marked the beginning of the flowering of medieval culture. The Black Death in particular spurred an enormous burst of technological innovation, as people struggled to cope with the sudden loss of manpower. Art became darker, more morbid after the Plague. But it flourished. One of the greatest European novels, for instance, was Giovanni Boccaccio's The Decameron. Written in 1353 (a mere three years after the Plague) it presents itself as a series of short tales that Italian nobles tell each other while they hide from the Plague in their country estate. Tons of great art works were completed in the wake of the Bubonic Plague (eg, Chaucer's Canterbury Tales). The Renaissance is arguable the most artistic period of Western history. It was certainly one of the high points of Western culture.

I have an MA in medieval history (specializing in the Early Medieval Period -- specifically the transition from Paganism to Christianity) and would be happy to give citations for these things. Wikipedia claims (without citation) that "Dark Ages" can refer to the entire medieval period (400-1400). I've never seen it used that way in history books. If you buy a book like "Dark Age Britain" it's only going to cover the Migration Period (400-800 or so).

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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by angelofwar » Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:40 am

doitnstyle1 wrote:I just read this article today and pictured the scenarios I have read in books or seen in movies and read about in this forum.

http://io9.com/how-rats-turned-their-pr ... 1687584457

I would like to hear some of your opinions and what would the resilience of the human race be compared to rats in a cage.

What aspects of the human race do you feel could save or destroy us and the world in which we live?

As the world becomes more overcrowded, and resources become scarcer, how effective Mutually Assured Destruction (M.A.D.) in keeping the peace, if we were to use the Universe 25 model?

According to the Malthusian Theory and Universe 25 experiment, could the human race be resilient enough to overcome the "unrecoverable extinction" event found in Universe 25?

What is your opinion of the "beautiful ones"?
Interesting topic...and interesting experiment.

My thoughts.

What aspects of the human race do you feel could save or destroy us and the world in which we live? Our kindness could save us...but our greed could destroy us. But here's an issue...a lot of our kindness, at least in America, is out of abundance. When supplies are limited, things can get ugly...like Black Friday...

What I didn't see in the Universe 25 expirament, but saw in real life, was that rats, in an uncontrolled/natural environment, will save dead rats, as an emergency food source. Rats will result to eating other rats, as will humans, not only potrayed in movies (The Road), but also real life, but I think the extremes to which humans would resort to cannibalization are much more than what rats would.

The Beautiful ones...those in positions of power, who have comfort while the rest suffer...it work in the case of the rats...humans are much smarter though, and I believe humans will only accept so much inequality. If it was humans in Universe 25, at some point, a leader with values would have raised from the "ashes", and doled out a more fair distribution of resources, including space.

Another issue this brings to light, is the "nullification of disease" the humans have instilled. Maybe diseases were Mother Nature's way of curbing the population? This wasn't mentioned in Universe 25, but, it happens all the time in the animal kingdom, and still happens in parts of the human population, with out disease controls.

Might have a few more thoughts later...my head is starting to hurt...

Good stuff though!
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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by doitnstyle1 » Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:06 pm

Myana - Thanks for the History Lesson. I was just pulling some quick references off the internet but I trust your statements as true.

Again, I want to thank everyone in keeping this a very civil and intriguing discussion and on subject. i would like to keep hearing more opinions on the subject and would welcome anyone thinking outside the box.
"All religious stuff aside, the fact is people who can't kill will always be subject to those who can." - Brad "Iceman" Colbert, Generation Kill

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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by doitnstyle1 » Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:35 am

Another case in point:

http://upriser.com/posts/alarm-bells-to ... st-60-days

We may be able to see a glimpse of the future here within the next year or so. Given the rate of consumption, the severe shortsightedness of the population of Sao Paolo, the significant differences in classes of this city, the sometimes violent clashes that happen between the people and the government, and large numbers of street gangs makes for a a great experimental model of such an event as we are discussing on this forum.

Short of nuclear events destroying this city, I would be very interested in the outcome and behavior of the people of Sao Paolo and would welcome any raw footage or video that comes out of the city. I am sure that the versions of the stories will change in the media as to not panic people in the US or around the rest of the world.
"All religious stuff aside, the fact is people who can't kill will always be subject to those who can." - Brad "Iceman" Colbert, Generation Kill

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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by Thorne » Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:36 am

Education on the value of freedoms reserved by the Bill of Rights should be a prerequisite for being a citizen of any nation. If we can't think for ourselves, then we're just putty in the hands of those in power. If citizens are educated and form their own opinions, then those in power work for us.

Carl Edward Sagan (9 Nov '34 – 20 Dec '96)

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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by doitnstyle1 » Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:31 am

Thank you Thorne for that great insight. I think this proves my point. :awesome:

I understand that it is a beautiful place to go and visit. There are many benefits to going there especially during Carnival. I think the half naked people and partying is just a couple of them, I do wonder how far this will go once water does run out. I am not hoping for death and destruction to rain down on this city. I certainly hope that it comes to pass like 2012. I am mere interested in if and how they overcome this looming and very realistic disaster. Sao Paolo is not the only city facing this disaster. Many cities in the US are facing this same shortage. Sao Paolo is probably the first metropolis that is going to be hit by it.

It may not even be as relevant as there may actually be more water around Sao Paolo that most of the US cities that may be affected by water shortages.
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Re: Are we moving headlong into a Malthusian Event?

Post by angelofwar » Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:00 pm

These scenarios of these cities running out of water is scary, but interesting at the same time. I try to be a good steward of the earth, and work more and more towards it every day. I try not to waste water...ever, but having a family and having continuous water supplies, it's hard to get them on the same page....but, regardless, I do preach it to them.

What I've done/how I've ensured I'm a good steward (or the best steward I can be)

-Starting replacing all the bulbs in the house with LED
-Wife started making our own cleaning/beauty/medicinal supplies with essential oils
-We buy local and non-GMO products when we can
-Since there's no recycle program for paper locally, we burn our paper instead of putting in the trash (plus it returns nitrogen to the earth)

Sadly, unless we all start living more responsibly, it's not going to matter if 5%, or 30% of us do, it's still a ticking time bomb.

Paraphrased "Only when all the tress are gone, buffalo are dead, and water is gone, will people realize you can't eat money".

When the bomb does go off, it will be survival of the strongest...and that's why prepping makes so much sense. That's why my prep's don't just include stuff, but also ability to produce. Having tools to fabricate, spare parts, seeds, and, most importantly, means to protect these resources, will put you in the "strongest" category.

Bush craft skills will also be hugely important...ability to do and create with nothing but with ma-nature provides. Knowing what plants do what and can be used for what purposes.

Repurposing skills (MacGyver). Ability to re-use otherwise useless items.

Sitting on lots of AMMO, water, and food will only get you so far, and is, in a round about way, the same issue mentioned at the beginning of the thread. Relying on "stuff" instead of yourself. With out your preps, how good are you at bushcraft and repurposing, and making/fixing things? Withthat, make sure you make it a point to make these later items a part of your prep plans.
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