How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Discuss those "what if" or "what would you do" scenarios you've been wondering about.

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Manimal2878 » Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:25 pm

Browning 35 wrote: A : None. Short of going out to their location in another vehicle there's no other way of contacting them.
Don't forget where then name pager comes from. Back then it was common to have pages and runners, and of course bike messengers, there were actual people whose job it was back then to run messages from place to place. So there would likely in fact have been people traveling from place to place physically carrying information.

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by MasterMaker » Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:40 pm

Manimal2878 wrote:I don' t buy that in a mere 12 hours lack of pager service completely eliminated a city's access to drugs and thrust the city into chaos.

I just don't think pagers we're ever as ubiquitous as cell phones are today.

I'll have to review 80s era Miami Vice, mAybe I'll change my mind.
I suspect that you haven't been around many junkies/heavy drug users, for a large majority of them rational thought, restraint and impulse control isn't exactly well developed.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Browning 35 » Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:52 pm

Manimal2878 wrote:Don't forget where then name pager comes from. Back then it was common to have pages and runners, and of course bike messengers, there were actual people whose job it was back then to run messages from place to place. So there would likely in fact have been people traveling from place to place physically carrying information.
The context that we're talking about is Police/Fire/EMS pagers not working or back in the day before cell phones, so sending a bike messenger out to that scene/location to tell that officer or crew to respond to such-and-such location when they've already left the station doesn't sound like much of a solution. Talk about horrible response times.

Back then before portable radios and pagers the NYPD and FDNY used to have emergency call boxes set up for the cops/firemen. Either that or they carried change for pay-phones. If an officer arrested someone and needed them transported to the jail or they needed help for something they just called the station and had someone come out. Sounds a little faster that way.

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Doesn't exactly help the other way (if the station needs to get in touch with the officers/firemen out in the field), but at least it's a partial solution.

Maybe have them call in at regular intervals? I dunno, better than nothing I guess.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Manimal2878 » Wed Apr 02, 2014 2:13 pm

Browning 35 wrote:
Manimal2878 wrote:Don't forget where then name pager comes from. Back then it was common to have pages and runners, and of course bike messengers, there were actual people whose job it was back then to run messages from place to place. So there would likely in fact have been people traveling from place to place physically carrying information.
The context that we're talking about is Police/Fire/EMS pagers not working or back in the day before cell phones, so sending a bike messenger out to that scene/location to tell that officer or crew to respond to such-and-such location when they've already left the station doesn't sound like much of a solution. Talk about horrible response times.

Back then before portable radios and pagers the NYPD and FDNY used to have emergency call boxes set up for the cops/firemen. Either that or they carried change for pay-phones. If an officer arrested someone and needed them transported to the jail or they needed help for something they just called the station and had someone come out. Sounds a little faster that way.

Image

Doesn't exactly help the other way (if the station needs to get in touch with the officers/firemen out in the field), but at least it's a partial solution.

Maybe have them call in at regular intervals? I dunno, better than nothing I guess.
I was thinking more from the perspective of the drug side. "I can't get a hold of Rosco. Send Jimmy over there to see what he's up to."

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Manimal2878 » Wed Apr 02, 2014 2:14 pm

MasterMaker wrote:
Manimal2878 wrote:I don' t buy that in a mere 12 hours lack of pager service completely eliminated a city's access to drugs and thrust the city into chaos.

I just don't think pagers we're ever as ubiquitous as cell phones are today.

I'll have to review 80s era Miami Vice, mAybe I'll change my mind.
I suspect that you haven't been around many junkies/heavy drug users, for a large majority of them rational thought, restraint and impulse control isn't exactly well developed.

You suspect incorrectly.

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Barnabus » Wed Apr 02, 2014 3:03 pm

Mikeyboy wrote:... but its kinda strange this group of people turned into cannibals in a short period of time.....
short time? the story in the show is going into 2 -3 years. And people would go cannibal in under a month if there was no more food.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Barnabus » Wed Apr 02, 2014 3:06 pm

Browning 35 wrote:The way I figure it most people have about 2-3 weeks worth of food in their cabinets ......
that estimate I think is being overly generous. I know lots of people who exist on only fast food, and may have a bag of chips, or something in their kitchen and that's it.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Browning 35 » Wed Apr 02, 2014 3:32 pm

Barnabus wrote:
Browning 35 wrote:The way I figure it most people have about 2-3 weeks worth of food in their cabinets ......
that estimate I think is being overly generous. I know lots of people who exist on only fast food, and may have a bag of chips, or something in their kitchen and that's it.
With some people, sure. Some are way over that though too. I'm more talking on the average. For most of the non-preppers I know that's about average.

At the end of that time period they're going to be getting around to stuff that they don't like much, but they won't go hungry.
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Evan the Diplomat wrote:Why do you want to shoot penguins? What did they ever do to you?
It's that smug, superior attitude of theirs, strutting around in their fancy outfits like they're better than everyone else. Yeah, burn in hell, you snobbish bird bastards.

And don't get me started on pandas!

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by raptor » Wed Apr 02, 2014 6:18 pm

feedthedog wrote:
The world is made of mostly good and normal people. They may steal TVs and food, but that doesn't mean that they are going to turn into monsters.

I truly would like to say I agree with and believe this statement to be true. I really do. However, I have seen too much for me to say I believe this statement is true.

There are without a doubt a lot of good people. I do believe the vast majority of people will, for the most part, do the right thing...sooner or later...assuming they are afraid of being caught.

There are also people, a lot of other people, who will not go out of their way to hurt people.

However on the other end of the spectrum there are the thugs, sociopaths and in general what I call the dangerous people who will be a problem. In this group, to steal a line from Batman, there are people who simply want to see the world burn. This is the group that I think we all fear and prepare ourselves to deal with.

Yet if there is one thing that history has taught us is that ordinary people mentioned above are quite capable of cruelty and callous behavior. There are numerous real life instances of these events. Rwanda and the Balkan Wars are just two that spring to mind recently.

Katrina was cited. I do agree that a lot of the violence that was reported was bad information, exaggeration or simply fabrication. That said I can assure you that I was shocked at the level of chaos (and violence) generated in NOLA in the aftermath of Katrina.

My comment is that it is ok to believe the above statement. In fact I like to use a similar expression. However, when I say it I am using more as an expression of hope and even a prayer...I am neither counting on it nor am I expecting to be true in my planning, nor should you.

Shit rolls downhill. The steeper the hill, the faster it rolls. In a SHTF situation you should assume the hill is steep, high and that you are downhill of the shit.



(I mean this in a respectful way and by no means is it meant to be a criticism or disrespect to feedthedog. :D)

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by DarkAxel » Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:11 pm

Well, we do have some historical cases to look at.

Defeat in WW1 and the Great Depression drove the German people off the rails and into the arms of some really fucked up people. Time: 15 years.

Yugoslavia pretty much fell to ethnic cleansing, rape, and death camps almost overnight when it broke up.

Somalia - civil war and governmental collapse led to intentional famine and ethnic cleansing, then Islamic extremism led to Al Shabaab and Westgate in Kenya

Sudan - Ethnic cleansing. The Janjaweed. Civil war.

The Black Plague: Europeans blamed Jews (Blood libel and witchcraft), and that led to expulsions, pogroms, torture, and burning at the stake.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by manowar1313 » Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:31 pm

I'm pretty sure it would take a minute. If you don't think so just hang out at walmart during black Friday, as soon as they open the doors it goes from people standing in a orderly line to bat-$h*t. Depending on the event that's what I would count on.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by ineffableone » Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:38 pm

raptor wrote:
feedthedog wrote:
The world is made of mostly good and normal people. They may steal TVs and food, but that doesn't mean that they are going to turn into monsters.

I truly would like to say I agree with and believe this statement to be true. I really do. However, I have seen too much for me to say I believe this statement is true.
I too have some optimistic views on humanity, and do actually think we as a whole tend to be pretty decent. But agree I have seen a lot of bad out there too, and can't ignore that there is bad people.

It should be noted though it does not take an entire group to go bad for a group to all start acting bad. Sadly people are mostly followers. When the authority figure/leader does something, or acts a specific way, it flows out to those around them. People will do horrible things, completely awful things they know is wrong, because someone who is perceived as authority tells them to do it. There have been many scientific studies about this sort of thing, and it is frightening how easy it seems to get people to do things completely inhuman to other humans. Often times it does not even take threat of violence to the person you want to do bad things for you, just someone who is perceived as an authority to grant permission to do it is all it takes too often.

In Walking Dead the Gov/Brian talking a group of decent good people into attacking the Prison is a good example of how this happens. Those people would not normally have done something like that, but under the spell of a charismatic self confident leader they followed him into a battle they did not need to have. Later Tara who was shocked and appalled at what happened and the part she played (even though she never fired a shot) followed Glen blindly as a way to atone for following someone else blindly. If Glen was not a good person, who knows what things he could get Tara to do using her remorse as a weapon against her. Sure that is all fiction, but it is a window into actual real events that happen all over the world constantly. Where one or two bad people can talk large numbers of good people into horrible things.

This reminds me of the often quoted phrase. "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing" Which too often is the case. The good men too often stand to the side and let the bad creep it's way in. They know things are wrong, but for some reason fail to act to stop the bad. They have a family to consider, or business, or what ever. Not saying those aren't valid reasons, but when no one steps up to stop the wrong, then wrongness spreads and gets worse often effecting family and business or the other things that originally stopped the good men from acting.

This would be something in PAW reconstruction and community building people should be mindful of. Stopping corruption and badness fast, not allowing it to take root and fester. Or even picking up stakes and leaving if things look like they are too ingrained and bad. If you see the warning signs heed them, do something or leave.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by feedthedog » Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:48 pm

raptor wrote:
feedthedog wrote:
The world is made of mostly good and normal people. They may steal TVs and food, but that doesn't mean that they are going to turn into monsters.

I truly would like to say I agree with and believe this statement to be true. I really do. However, I have seen too much for me to say I believe this statement is true.

There are without a doubt a lot of good people. I do believe the vast majority of people will, for the most part, do the right thing...sooner or later...assuming they are afraid of being caught.

There are also people, a lot of other people, who will not go out of their way to hurt people.

However on the other end of the spectrum there are the thugs, sociopaths and in general what I call the dangerous people who will be a problem. In this group, to steal a line from Batman, there are people who simply want to see the world burn. This is the group that I think we all fear and prepare ourselves to deal with.

Yet if there is one thing that history has taught us is that ordinary people mentioned above are quite capable of cruelty and callous behavior. There are numerous real life instances of these events. Rwanda and the Balkan Wars are just two that spring to mind recently.

Katrina was cited. I do agree that a lot of the violence that was reported was bad information, exaggeration or simply fabrication. That said I can assure you that I was shocked at the level of chaos (and violence) generated in NOLA in the aftermath of Katrina.

My comment is that it is ok to believe the above statement. In fact I like to use a similar expression. However, when I say it I am using more as an expression of hope and even a prayer...I am neither counting on it nor am I expecting to be true in my planning, nor should you.

Shit rolls downhill. The steeper the hill, the faster it rolls. In a SHTF situation you should assume the hill is steep, high and that you are downhill of the shit.



(I mean this in a respectful way and by no means is it meant to be a criticism or disrespect to feedthedog. :D)

No disrespect taken. :P

I'm a bit of an optimist... But even in war, where death and violence were pretty routine, I was still a bit surprised at the civility. That's not to say that it wasn't totally fucked up, but that's WAR and war is supposed to be as bad as things get. Things were bad, but not Saw 5 level depravity.

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Herkemer » Fri Apr 04, 2014 1:09 am

If it is a Katrina type of situation, I'd expect it to go down pretty much like that in the worst case.

If it is a....lot worse...nuke...emp...virulent pandemic...ect.

1 effing second.

The second it is realized that no one is coming, and they aren't going to come, that's it.

Like most people, I live in a suburb of a city. I know one or two neighbors casually. A "Hey how you doing bud" when I'm pulling into my driveway kinda thing. The rest of them, not a clue who they are. My suburb house is pretty much indefensible against anyone serious. I figure the moment it is figured that this is the end, we're all screwed and my neighbors will act accordingly.

My plans are trying to cover a Katrina type thing at the worst. I am not spending family treasure and time building the ultimate hideout. And, No, I am not going to go around to my stranger neighbors inquiring about PAW plans.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Tater Raider » Fri Apr 04, 2014 6:58 pm

Mikeyboy wrote:How long do you think it would take our current society to go completely mad, where you had a town of cannibals, a governor that ran gladiatorial games, gruesome public executions, and wandering gangs that raped and pillaged.

Will it take days, months, years?
Look to Katrina and you'll have your answer.

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Neptune Glory » Sat Apr 05, 2014 6:33 am

Browning 35 wrote:
Manimal2878 wrote:Don't forget where then name pager comes from. Back then it was common to have pages and runners, and of course bike messengers, there were actual people whose job it was back then to run messages from place to place. So there would likely in fact have been people traveling from place to place physically carrying information.
The context that we're talking about is Police/Fire/EMS pagers not working or back in the day before cell phones, so sending a bike messenger out to that scene/location to tell that officer or crew to respond to such-and-such location when they've already left the station doesn't sound like much of a solution. Talk about horrible response times.

Back then before portable radios and pagers the NYPD and FDNY used to have emergency call boxes set up for the cops/firemen. Either that or they carried change for pay-phones. If an officer arrested someone and needed them transported to the jail or they needed help for something they just called the station and had someone come out. Sounds a little faster that way.

Image

Doesn't exactly help the other way (if the station needs to get in touch with the officers/firemen out in the field), but at least it's a partial solution.

Maybe have them call in at regular intervals? I dunno, better than nothing I guess.
The thing about today is... they all HAVE mobile radios (at least simplex if not repeater-duplex). Even if cell phones went to pot, with a generator (which most stations have), the mobile radios will still work provided they are charged (most ambulances have chargers / inverters into which a charger can be plugged -- not sure about police cars).

All of which may quit when natural gas / gasoline runs out. So... longer than a day, shorter than a week.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Doryman » Wed May 07, 2014 8:07 am

Honestly, I'd expect people to go "tribal" pretty quick. In every shtf situation I've studied so far, large, diverse populations tend to splinter along ethnic, linguistic and cultural lines. The former Yugoslavia is a great example; Sarajevo went from being a cosmopolitan melting pot to being a fractious war-zone.

Humans have a predilection towards tribalism in the absence of a strong state. Blame Dunbar's Number, small-mindedness, whatever, but that's seems to be the way the chips fall.

So, personally, I wouldn't expect to see people become completely crazy and evil so much as I would expect to see them become brutally sectarian. Good people towards and within their "tribe" and heartless savages towards those on the outside. That seems to be the historical mean.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Stercutus » Wed May 07, 2014 9:23 pm

The thing about today is... they all HAVE mobile radios (at least simplex if not repeater-duplex). Even if cell phones went to pot, with a generator (which most stations have), the mobile radios will still work provided they are charged (most ambulances have chargers / inverters into which a charger can be plugged -- not sure about police cars).

All of which may quit when natural gas / gasoline runs out. So... longer than a day, shorter than a week.
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Radios such a first responders use have multiple points of failure:
- Power
- Antennas
- Devices
- Communication medium

They are pretty durable but you can't count on them to make it through everything.

My answer? Ten days without TV/ internet or three days with no drug supplies. Everything else can be worked out.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Tater Raider » Sat May 10, 2014 12:11 am

Stercutus wrote:
The thing about today is... they all HAVE mobile radios (at least simplex if not repeater-duplex). Even if cell phones went to pot, with a generator (which most stations have), the mobile radios will still work provided they are charged (most ambulances have chargers / inverters into which a charger can be plugged -- not sure about police cars).

All of which may quit when natural gas / gasoline runs out. So... longer than a day, shorter than a week.
-Neptune
Radios such a first responders use have multiple points of failure:
- Power
- Antennas
- Devices
- Communication medium

They are pretty durable but you can't count on them to make it through everything.

My answer? Ten days without TV/ internet or three days with no drug supplies. Everything else can be worked out.
That's why I have an dual band HT, a license to use it, and have made it part of my EDC - because it's unreliable. :wink:

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by LastBoyScout » Mon May 12, 2014 7:17 pm

Well to clarify my point in regard to the points made by Manimal2878
You do not have to buy it. It is not for sale. I lived it and wanted to share. It was given free.
As they say free legal advice is worth exactly what you pay for it. I paid for it with risk and anguish and now that I ‘m older back pain. If you do not care to listen then you will pay for it yourself.

Thank you to the others who understood what was taking place at the time.
This was the 1980’s as in 1981 or so. Crack really did not hit the street in our town till 1985 or 86. So what these guys were selling was “H” Horse or Heroin. The people who buy and sell “H” are not your street corner sellers like Crack. You did not see that happening with “H”. Also Sacramento is not like New York or Chicago in the way the city is set up. So even today you do not have the Corners like other places so much. It happens but not like NY.
Also the penalty for selling “H” was a lot more than selling crack is today. Like long prison time so dealers were careful and did not tell people where they lived or stored their drugs not to mention it is a lot more money than Crack. This did not just hit the inner city but the suburbs as well. Heroin is a physical addiction and people get sick without it.

Now I am not saying this was like Katrina or something but from a Law Enforcement standpoint it was crazy. Calls for service in some areas where very high and the violence was high as well. We were arresting a lot of people and there was a lot of overtime and officer injuries. The jail had its hands full with all the accused coming in and being sick from not having their drugs which meant overtime for them as well and long waits in booking which meant few Patrol cars on the street. See snowball effect.
This was not Katrina or the LA riots. This was a hiccup by comparison.

This was a short term small geographic area and only one form of communication shut down. Yes manimal2878 they still had pay phones (unlike today) and house lines (often unlike today) and it was still crazy.
Now extrapolate that out to a larger area and more or most forms of communications and you have an idea of what it will be like in some areas. All areas no, but who knows.

My point was as related by others the 9 meals concept that some people it would not even be that long.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Doryman » Mon May 12, 2014 9:23 pm

LastBoyScout wrote:W

My point was as related by others the 9 meals concept that some people it would not even be that long.

I'd believe that. With social media the way it is, most people will hear about alarmingly bad news almost immediately. A lot of these people might react to that news by some large-scale response like rioting or taking part in some sort of coup/revenge activity. It might only be something local and relatively short-term, but if you get caught in it, it's a disaster all the same.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Mikeyboy » Tue May 13, 2014 9:02 am

A lot of good point came up in this thread.

1) Druggies and dealers. I think like some people said druggies in a PAW event will go crazy, as they scramble to get any of their drug of choice left, then probably seek out other means to get high, and to ease the effects of withdraw, but at the end when it all runs out they will either become sober or simply die. Dealers will simply deal in other things, or turn to a respectable PAW career, or die out. I'm thinking it will run like food. First 3 days druggies will be getting high since law enforcement will be busy with other stuff. After 3 days panic will set in when supply runs out, and druggies will start raiding drug stores, and stealing booze and prescription drugs and mega dosing over the counter stuff.

2) How thing worked before communication. If you EMT guys want a good laugh watch an episode of Emergency to see how 1960's EMTs worked. Going back to the 1800's even the 1700's, there were still police, doctors, nurses, and firemen. If there is a PAW things will be figured out over time. Large towns and cities, or even neighborhoods would figure out ways to put out fires, respond to crime or attacks, and what to do with a medical emergency. There will probably be Call bells to ring, there will be sheriffs that can deputize citizens so a posse will be formed, when there is a fire, people will yell fire/ ring bells and bucket brigades will be formed, and/or volunteer firefighters will show up. When someone gets hurt the people around them will rush them to the doctor in town, or some fast running kid will "Fetch the doctor". The services will not be quick, or as good as it once was but everyone will figure it out some sort of public service system for the major stuff.

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Browning 35 » Tue May 13, 2014 9:59 am

Mikeyboy wrote:2) How thing worked before communication. If you EMT guys want a good laugh watch an episode of Emergency to see how 1960's EMTs worked.
Used to watch it all the time when I was a little kid. I liked how they portrayed a doctor actually answering the phone and staying on the line for several mins. Like that's ever going to happen. You can barely get a nurse on the line to give them a pt report let alone an actual doc.

Mine are short as fuck too (and then if they actually want more info they can ask). Usually the nurses want to get off the phone as fast as possible, they just want a couple identifiers (age/sex), the chief complaint, stable or unstable and your ETA. Only treatments they care about is if you're doing CPR, if they're tubed (they need to call respiratory and get a vent) or if you just helped the pt deliver in the back of the box. They don't have time to stand around on the phone waiting for the drama to unfold. For us calling them is a pain in the ass when we could be treating the pt and moving towards the hospital. Ain't got time for that shit.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by MasterMaker » Tue May 13, 2014 1:53 pm

I'm less worried about what they will do to get drugs and more worried about the habits set in place by those drugs, habits like taking what they need and if necessary being violent about it to get what they want(drugs).

The drugs may be gone but the habit it set in place will still be there for many of the ones that survive withdrawal, now focused on other things they want/need(think about it, how much of what everyone does on a daily basis is a habit and how hard it is for most people to be be aware of it whenever their actions are habitual so that can break one such habit).

For most habits change focus rather than go away with whatever it used to be focused on, pretty much everyone have so many habits that they don't even know are habits and that they don't think about(the route you drive to work would just be one example), habits formed during stress(PTSD, behavior no longer fitting the circumstances since one isn't in a war zone any longer) are all together much harder to break and the habits created in the search for loot to buy drugs are more stress based than the mundane everyday habits that most have.

I do tend to be Mr. worst case but I've gotten into the habit :roll: of finding the occasional pleasant surprise far preferable to even one unpleasant one.
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