SCBrian wrote: ↑
Tue Jul 31, 2018 3:41 pm
Skimmed the articles, but either didn't see a link to their methodology or it wasn't given. I'd think the infection rate would drop once outside of the initial breakout and information was forthcoming on what type of vector it was using to spread. SARS for instance, hand washing, masks, disinfection of surfaces, much like you'd do if a member of your family had the flu. Other than being at ground zero or close to it, it'd have to be pretty virulent or have a long incubation period to put western cultures at risk. Third world countries, sure - I can see that, but western would be difficult.
The nitty-gritty bits of the Clade X simulation are buried in their "Resources" page (http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... -resources
), at the bottom in "Background Materials". Even then, the discussion is pretty brief - I wasn't able to find a big, detailed report anywhere, just the Executive Summary (http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... cument.pdf
). The "Clade X Model" document (http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... -model.pdf
) has a bunch of differential equations, but little discussion on the outcomes/statistics of each condition tested.
I'd agree, that standard sanitation practices (even with less-than-stellar adequate handwashing rates) in the 1st world would make infection difficult. There are also some circumstances around the 1918 influenza pandemic that are different than today, notably that we aren't presently engaged in trench warfare. And that while the world has become more connected with air travel and ~4x as many people, we have also become more insular in some pockets, like working from home and home delivery of products. They did assume that, like the 1918 influenza strain, that infected people would have a short, asymptomatic-but-infectious incubation period, which could overcome some basic quarantine countermeasures.
EDIT: Or, if you have 5 hours to kill, you can watch the archived live-stream of some of their event proceedings: http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... livestream