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PostPosted: Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:00 am 
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williaty wrote:
Stercutus wrote:
I'd say if you are not stocking up on fuel right now you should think about it.

Problem with that is that fuel prices aren't actually coming down around here.

87 octane unleaded is down, yes. Diesel isn't. Kerosene isn't. 93 octane isn't, which is weird. 93 has stayed steady as 87 dropped, leading to 93 being a dollar above 87 when it used to be just 20c more for almost my entire life.

So nothing we need to buy has actually fallen meaningfully compared to a year ago in my area.


93 octane tends to be a lower demand product and purchased by people generally with higher performance vehicles which require the higher octane. So the premium pricing at least in my area tends to be very inelastic as the price drops. Generally 9not always) a gas station will change their price when they take delivery and base their new price off of the cost. So the gas stations in your area may still be working through their pricier old inventory. That or they may be trying to get some extra margin.

BTW in my area regular is $1.37 to $1.50/gal and premium between $1.85 and $2.15/gallon. it is dropping swiftly and steadily.


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I lol'd
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Reacting to the new revelation, the SEC said in a statement that it has initiated significant reforms to trim the chance that such frauds could go undetected in the future.

The regulator said it aggressively pursues Ponzi schemes and similar misconduct and has stepped up surveillance and new safeguards for investor assets and established an enhanced whistleblower program.



My first thought to that quote was "Yeah. Right. Sure you are."

SEC wonks generally view their tenure at the SEC as a stepping stone to an industry position. With that in mind; a quick question, who do think will get a better industry job, a wonk known for being a hard ass auditor/analyst or an auditor/analyst who goes along and gets along with industry?

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:32 am 
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More bad news for oil producers:

CNN Money wrote:
Iran pushing forward with plans to ramp up oil output

Iran will push forward with plans to pump an additional one million barrels of oil per day into an already oversupplied global market, a senior Iranian oil official told CNN in an exclusive interview.

"Iran is not the cause for this turmoil," Deputy Oil Minister Amir Hossein Zamaninia told CNN's Fred Pleitgen on Sunday, referring to the slump in oil prices. "We do not intend to sanction ourselves again after coming out of the sanctions."

Oil producers have been watching nervously as Iran prepares to bring its supplies back to the global market after economic sanctions on the country were lifted as part of a landmark nuclear deal with world powers.

"We want to increase our production to the level we used to produce prior to the sanctions," Zamaninia said. "And at that time, then we can get together and discuss and strategize for the future."

More at link


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 7:54 am 
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phil_in_cs wrote:
I've been hearing the "any minute now" on the debt bomb busting since the late 1970's. People were probably saying it earlier, I just wasn't paying attention.

7 years later and I see this thread is still going strong. Any day now...


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 8:01 am 
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phil_in_cs wrote:
phil_in_cs wrote:
I've been hearing the "any minute now" on the debt bomb busting since the late 1970's. People were probably saying it earlier, I just wasn't paying attention.

7 years later and I see this thread is still going strong. Any day now...


Congratulations! You are the 52nd person to point this out!!

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 8:34 am 
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NamelessStain wrote:
phil_in_cs wrote:
phil_in_cs wrote:
I've been hearing the "any minute now" on the debt bomb busting since the late 1970's. People were probably saying it earlier, I just wasn't paying attention.

7 years later and I see this thread is still going strong. Any day now...


Congratulations! You are the 52nd person to point this out!!


No, it would still be 51 since I've pointed in out a number of times before.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 31, 2016 8:41 am 
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 3:12 pm 
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Not really a disaster and more a sign of the tough economic times we are facing.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) lost its AAA credit rating. Don't sweat it if you hold XOM bonds though. XOM will be around for quite a while. They BTW XOM now has the same credit rating as the US government at AA.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/26/investi ... index.html

The reason given was XOM's mounting debt which it needs due to the downturn in the price of oil.

By my count there are only 2 US companies left with a AAA rating. Microsoft (MSFT) and Johnson & Johnson (jnj). These companies BTW still have credit that is superior to the US government.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 5:00 pm 
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raptor wrote:
By my count there are only 2 US companies left with a AAA rating. Microsoft (MSFT) and Johnson & Johnson (jnj). These companies BTW still have credit that is superior to the US government.

Huh, why do companies like GOOG and AAPL that are more cash-positive than MSFT have a lower credit rating?


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 5:05 pm 
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williaty wrote:
raptor wrote:
By my count there are only 2 US companies left with a AAA rating. Microsoft (MSFT) and Johnson & Johnson (jnj). These companies BTW still have credit that is superior to the US government.

Huh, why do companies like GOOG and AAPL that are more cash-positive than MSFT have a lower credit rating?



Good Question, & I don't mean that in a bad way...

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 6:14 pm 
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Probably because they don't have to borrow money.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 7:16 pm 
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Cash on hand is not the sole measure anyone should look at to judge a companies financial position. The ratio of cash and short term assets to liabilities both short and long term gives a much more balanced view of fiscal health. That and the company history of managing it's finances over a long term.

For example which company would say is in a better financial position?

Company A that has $1 billion in cash and $1 billion in liabilities and has negative cash flow (is losing money every day)

Company B that has $1 million in cash, no liabilities of any kind and has a positive cash flow (is making money every day)?

Obviously today Company B based upon these conditions has more value. However which is more credit worthy is a much more complex question since the rating agency has to look at the prospects for the future of the company and its likely future cash flow.

What does surprise me is that MSFT has been around long enough to qualify for the AAA rating.

JNJ and XOM have been AAA rated for ~50 years. They have a long term track record of protecting their balance sheets.

Google and Apple do not have that same track record as these entities. Still it is not like they have bad credit. Thier credit ratings are equal to the US government who BTW has a much worse balance sheet.

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PostPosted: Mon May 02, 2016 5:58 pm 
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More woes from PR.


http://www.wsj.com/articles/puerto-rico ... 1462219483
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The government will make a $22 million interest payment due Monday, a GDB spokeswoman said, but it will likely miss a $367 million principal payment. The government earlier swapped $33 million worth of debt coming due Monday for new debt with later maturities, the spokeswoman said.


Quote:
Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew warned on Monday that a U.S. “taxpayer-funded bailout may become the only legislative course available” if Congress doesn’t approve the proposed restructuring legislation. The warning came in a letter sent to Congress.

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PostPosted: Mon May 02, 2016 8:06 pm 
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The PR debt issue has become a hugely political with the usual accusations hurled by the usual groups at the opposition.

It is simultaneously complex and simple with greedy villians, innocent parties and not so innocent parties potentially suffering collateral damage.

It is simple in origin. PR spent money it did not have for less than beneficial reasons. It is complex because of the various players and the impact a default, legislation permitting bankruptcy (super chapter 9) or a federal bailout could have on the US debt level, state bond markets and municipal bond issuance.

Make no mistake any outcome in this is likely to have reprocussions far beyond PR. That said none will result in TEOTWAWKI.

The solution is also simple. PR needs to cut its spending on everything, raise taxes and between the 2 live within its means. Then work out an extension with its creditors, which since the creditors want money and assets should be doable. Good luck with that plan though.

The population is fleeing PR, so raising taxes is tough, cutting spending is politically unpopular. There you have the simple yet complex answer.

Finally I would note that cities can declare bankruptcy. States and territories cannot declare bankruptcy.

It is rare but cities do declare bankruptcy without too much bond market turmoil. They work out the issue and move on. There is no reason PR could not do this and minimize the impact to all parties. The problem though is that the politics has made this a lose/lose proposition.

Keep an eye on this and while it is significant; it will not be another financial hit like Greece or Iceland. Assuming of course you, your pension or your bond fund does not have PR bonds or live in PR.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 1:09 pm 
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ALBERT EDWARDS: 'CONDITION RED ALERT' — a recession is imminent by Bob Bryan

Albert Edwards thinks that the US economy is about to hit the rocks - hard.

This may not be surprising for anyone who follows Societe Generale's admitted perma-bear, but according to Edwards' latest weekly commentary, the signals for a recession are mounting.

Edwards said in his Ice Age thesis, the idea that we're in the midst of a multidecade downturn for stocks and financial assets, spotting recessions is the biggest key to surviving the cold.

"The key to the Ice Age thesis is to sound CONDITION RED ALERT as each recession approaches, because the equity outcome then always proves much worse than anyone expects due to the additional phase of secular de-rating," the strategist wrote in a note to clients Friday.

Based on Edwards' reading of the latest data out of the US, it appears that it is time to sound the alarm. Here's Edwards (emphasis added):

In the aftermath of the latest, weaker than expected, nonfarm payroll data, economists are certainly more worried. The excellent folks at Advisor Perspectives highlight the Fed’s Labour Market Conditions Index as suggesting a recession is imminent (the cumulative peak is an average of 9 months ahead of the start of recession and we are now four months beyond a peak. For investors who think copper still has some predictive power, its recent move is disturbing.

Complete article at this link: http://www.businessinsider.com/conditio ... ent-2016-6

Previous article at this link: http://www.businessinsider.com/edwards- ... ing-2016-4

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 1:58 pm 
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teotwaki wrote:
Albert Edwards thinks that the US economy is about to hit the rocks - hard.

You think the US has got problems :D

Due to {politics} there's a moderate chance the UK will vote in a fortnight to leave the EU - British exit or "Brexit". Those in favour of Brexit like to portray it as a route to a land of milk and honey, but assesswment by the London School of Economics suggests that Brexit will lead to a loss of between 2.2% and 9.5% of UK GDP, "a loss of a similar size to that resulting from the global financial crisis of 2008/09".

If that happens it's not going to be pleasant.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 3:13 pm 
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A Brexit will be a real problem for the stability of and the ongoing existence of the EU...at least IMO.

I am not sure if the net change will be positive of negative to the US and USD but I am positive it will not be good for the Euro. I think it may actually help the Chinese yuan since the USD and Euro are seen now as the currency of trade. That said this is strictly my opinion.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 6:11 am 
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IMO, Brexit will cause major issues within the EU. If Germany were also to leave, the EU would be done.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 6:53 am 
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NamelessStain wrote:
IMO, Brexit will cause major issues within the EU. If Germany were also to leave, the EU would be done.



Germany isn't leaving the EU. Hell, more Germans want the Brits to stay than Brits do. Germany has been vacillated between threats and pleading to get the Brits to stay.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 7:08 am 
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Stercutus wrote:
NamelessStain wrote:
IMO, Brexit will cause major issues within the EU. If Germany were also to leave, the EU would be done.



Germany isn't leaving the EU. Hell, more Germans want the Brits to stay than Brits do. Germany has been vacillated between threats and pleading to get the Brits to stay.


Yes, because the Germans know if GB leaves, they will have to provide more. With recent issues within the country, Brexit could change their minds.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 2:25 pm 
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The SCOTUS decided that Puerto Rico is barred from re-organizing debt in bankruptcy. The decision was 5-2 and based upon the reasoning one would wonder why the 2 voted as they did.

Quote:
In a 5-2 ruling, the justices said that although the government and people of Puerto Rico should not have to wait for possible congressional action to avert a financial crisis, the Constitution does not allow them to rewrite a statute that Congress enacted in 1984.

While states can allow municipalities to seek such debt relief, the lower court said, Congress had not given Puerto Rico that right.

“The plain text of the Bankruptcy Code begin and ends our analysis,” Justice Clarence Thomas wrote in the majority opinion. “Resolving whether Puerto Rico is a ‘state’ for purposes of the pre-emption provisions begins ‘with the language of the statute itself,’ and that ‘is also where the inquiry should end’ for ‘the statute’s language is plain.’ ”
Puerto Rico had long been included as a state under the bankruptcy code, but Congress amended that definition in 1984 to exclude the territory.


http://thehill.com/regulation/court-bat ... cture-debt

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 14, 2016 10:12 am 
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I went back to the first post to see the start date: Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010

WhoShotJR wrote:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/our-debt-time-bomb-is-ready-to-go-ka-boom-2010-02-02

This link is a little political, but I don't think biased against one side or the other. I think it's a pretty good summary of the guns we have pointed at our collective heads. I really can't imagine any scenario where we are looking at anything but a very rough ride. Thoughts?



So they gave 20 reasons but 5 years later.... nuttin'

Soon: shortly, presently, in the near future, before long, in a little while, in a minute, in a moment, in an instant, in a bit, in the twinkling of an eye, in no time, before you know it, any minute (now), any day (now), by and by; pronto, in a jiffy.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 14, 2016 10:29 am 
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teotwaki wrote:
I went back to the first post to see the start date: Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010

WhoShotJR wrote:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/our-debt-time-bomb-is-ready-to-go-ka-boom-2010-02-02

This link is a little political, but I don't think biased against one side or the other. I think it's a pretty good summary of the guns we have pointed at our collective heads. I really can't imagine any scenario where we are looking at anything but a very rough ride. Thoughts?



So they gave 20 reasons but 5 years later.... nuttin'

Soon: shortly, presently, in the near future, before long, in a little while, in a minute, in a moment, in an instant, in a bit, in the twinkling of an eye, in no time, before you know it, any minute (now), any day (now), by and by; pronto, in a jiffy.



Good point.

As of 2016
#6 is completely wrong.

#3 is wrong

However the others in one form or another still exist as unsolved issues.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 14, 2016 10:38 am 
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I think it shows that people work hard to prevent it, and have so far been successful.
Good for them. :)

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 14, 2016 11:15 am 
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ZombieGranny wrote:
I think it shows that people work hard to prevent it, and have so far been successful.
Good for them. :)


Fiat currency is a double-edged sword.

With a Fiat currency you have the ability to 'respond' to markets and 'fix' issues before they escalate into crises. Given that a Fiat currency has no fixed value or solid reserve commodity.

The US Dollar may or may not be a true Fiat currency, depending on which economist and\or conspiracy theorist you ask. But all pretty much agree that the reserve commodity that may or may not secure the dollar does not have a fixed value and is not owned by the US Government.

But previous paragraph and tangent aside, let's assume the USD is a Fiat currency. History teaches us that all Fiat currencies fail once enough consumers realize it is a Fiat currency and it loses it's Tinkerbell Effect. The USD, in its current Fiat form has already lasted longer than any other Fiat currency. But I would not and do not believe it will last forever. The rest of my life time? My kids and grandkids? Probably. They have a lot of people working on it 24\7 to keep it from failing, but will it last forever? No.

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