North Korea Saber Rattling

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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by WES » Tue Mar 17, 2009 12:31 am

Lynxian wrote: Yeah, they've got a lot of troops. They've had so for decades. I believe that, if they call up reserves, their number will equal the Chinese armed forces. But, I'm far more curious with what they're armed.

I'm more curious as to how well fed they are. NK has been on the verge of starvation for over a decade now. They've stated they could afford to lose half their population from starvation... and I think it's far worse then any outside media has been allowed to see. I wouldn't be surprised if the NK army just melted under any serious opposition.

Anyone remember how hyped up the Iraqi guard was, before the 2nd gulf war. Saddam hadn't paid them for almost 6 months. Don't pay, or feed, your army... and it isn't an army anymore.
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by Lynxian » Tue Mar 17, 2009 3:50 am

WES wrote:I'm more curious as to how well fed they are.
Yeah, I considered that argument as well, but then I thought of something somebody else brought up in an earlier NK war discussion; the people on NK are very indoctrinated and are of the kind that are willing to die for their great leader. Add starvation and you might just have a bunch of highly fanatical retards running at you in the millions because they've been told that;

A) The enemy hates their great leader and wishes him dead
B) They've been told the enemy has chronically deprived them of their food and have plenty behind their lines.

Personally, I don't want to get in between 1 million underfed North Koreans, albeit armed with outdated weapons, trying to get a snack from behind my lines. ;)

Also, if memory serves correctly, the Chinese strategy of mass-rushes proved surprisingly effective during the '50 - '53 period of the Korean War.
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by tilt » Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:47 am

Lynxian wrote: Also, if memory serves correctly, the Chinese strategy of mass-rushes proved surprisingly effective during the '50 - '53 period of the Korean War.

Yes, but they weren't running into a sustained wall of lead then either. Remember, while their barrels have rusted and their stocks have petrified, the military-industrial complex has been cruising right along on this side of the 38th. The rate of aimed shots an M1A/M14 or even M4/M16 can take (in well-aimed shots) is far higher than what they can do... taking into account that we have enough ammo that we can practice. I'd almost say that many NK troops haven't fired a rifle but once in their career.
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by Lynxian » Tue Mar 17, 2009 10:19 am

tilt wrote:Yes, but they weren't running into a sustained wall of lead then either. Remember, while their barrels have rusted and their stocks have petrified, the military-industrial complex has been cruising right along on this side of the 38th. The rate of aimed shots an M1A/M14 or even M4/M16 can take (in well-aimed shots) is far higher than what they can do... taking into account that we have enough ammo that we can practice. I'd almost say that many NK troops haven't fired a rifle but once in their career.
Oh? I thought bunker / gun emplacements were common among allied positions? Plus, they might've had slow shooting rifles, but weren't they extremely accurate? (Mind you, I don't know a whole lot about firearms, so I might be very wrong. ;))
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by Tetra Grammaton Cleric » Tue Mar 17, 2009 10:43 am

The south has these things too don't they?

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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by tilt » Tue Mar 17, 2009 2:08 pm

Lynxian wrote:
tilt wrote:Yes, but they weren't running into a sustained wall of lead then either. Remember, while their barrels have rusted and their stocks have petrified, the military-industrial complex has been cruising right along on this side of the 38th. The rate of aimed shots an M1A/M14 or even M4/M16 can take (in well-aimed shots) is far higher than what they can do... taking into account that we have enough ammo that we can practice. I'd almost say that many NK troops haven't fired a rifle but once in their career.
Oh? I thought bunker / gun emplacements were common among allied positions? Plus, they might've had slow shooting rifles, but weren't they extremely accurate? (Mind you, I don't know a whole lot about firearms, so I might be very wrong. ;))
Yes, bunkers and sentry positions are very common on the ROK side of the DMZ. All clues also point to the other side having as much manpower as the ROK side as well. However, the force manning the ROK side is quite superior in that the force is well trained, has practiced recently with their duty weapon and is not malnourished. The North might have had troops that were well trained 20 years ago, but the infrastructure has been in a state of decay for a while now.
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by TheGunslinger » Tue Mar 17, 2009 5:05 pm

Human wave attacks, whilst they were effective on occasion in the first Korean war aren't going to be so crash hot next (if there is a next) time around.

Pretty sure the artillery and other force multipliers that the ROK and US have would shred up waves upon waves of NK troops. Hell, they did back in the '50's and we've come a long way since then.

NK are going to shit their pants when UAV's, Bradley's, Abrahms, Tomahawks and Daisy cutters start exploding amongst their forming up points (which will be pin pointed by satellite, drone, SF and aerial recon). If they're still trying to fight a war '50s style, I give them about 2 seconds before the counter battery fire fucks them up good and proper.

Would they even be aware of the level of tech that the US have? I mean, they're largely cut off from the outside world. Maybe they still get a subscription to Jane's monthly, and the Chi-Coms probably trickle info to them - but I'd imagine that most info would be restricted to brigade level commanders and up, which means your average NK company is in for a pretty bloody rude shock.
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by frath0 » Thu Mar 19, 2009 10:57 am

I'd have to agree there, 'Slinger. Add to it that SAW and/or m240's are standard for infantry these days.... it'd take one HELLUVA human-wave attack to take on even a platoon. Add a few thermobaric weapons for shits and giggles, or any number of the cool new things they've come up with on Weaponology. Their arty might do horrific damage for the few oh, hour or so... then it would be non-existent. I go back to Sam Kinison's (paraphrased) quote about Gulf War I - "JUST FEED THEM - COLONEL SANDERS COULD WIN THIS WAR!"
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by TC » Thu Mar 19, 2009 2:37 pm

The Times wrote: North Korean officials cross the border to arrest US journalists

Security officials from North Korea have detained two Korean-American journalists, apparently while they were on the Chinese side of the border and filming into the closed Stalinist state.

The report by South Korea's YTN channel quoted a South Korean government official as saying that the guards had crossed the border into Chinese territory to arrest the pair after they ignored warnings to stop filming.

The two women worked for an online news company based in California, the report said. It gave no details of their identity or of the firm they worked for.

If the North Korean guards did cross the Yalu or the Tumen rivers that demarcate the border, this could prove extremely embarrassing for Beijing, which is the only major ally of isolated North Korea and its main source of economic aid. The incident comes as North Korean leader Kim Yong Il is visiting Beijing.

Even as the guards were detaining the two journalists, the Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, was urging his visiting counterpart to co-operate in efforts to resume stalled international talks on dismantling Pyongyang's nuclear programmes. Mr Kim was due to meet the Chinese President, Hu Jintao, later in the day.

China already has a difficult relationship with North Korea, frequently publicly describing ties as being "as close as lips and teeth" even as both the military and Communist Party officials struggle to conceal their frustrations with Pyongyang's bouts of belligerent rhetoric.

Tensions on the divided Korean peninsula have been rising in recent weeks, with the North accusing the United States and South Korea of using joint military exercises as a preparation to invade.

Pyongyang has said that it will launch a missile early in April as part of a space communications programme. The United States says that the launch is intended to test a rocket that could have the potential to carry a warhead as far as US territory.

The border along the Tumen and Yalu rivers is a frequent crossing point for trade with North Korea and for refugees seeking to escape over the porous frontier. It is also a favourite spot for foreign journalists seeking to film a glimpse of the shuttered nation. Reporters standing on the Chinese side of the border are often jeered at by North Korean border guards, some brandishing rifles just steps away.

If the guards did cross into Chinese territory, it would not be the first time that Pyongyang has sent officials into China. In 2000 the Reverend Kim Dong Shik was kidnapped from the Chinese border city of Yanbian and taken into North Korea.
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by jaybird » Sun Mar 22, 2009 1:52 am

I for one am completely sick of this shit. I am just tired of him and his goons kidnapping folks and the U.N. doing jack-shit about it.

Self-edited for anger
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by Lynxian » Sun Mar 22, 2009 5:22 pm

jaybird wrote:I for one am completely sick of this shit. I am just tired of him and his goons kidnapping folks and the U.N. doing jack-shit about it.

Self-edited for anger
The problem with a crazy dictator that has no realization of how the real world works is a problem when he does little stupid shit. The UN, or whoever, basically, can't do anything without the crazy ass dictator declaring all out war. Now while it's likely that the UN, or whoever, will come out as victor, the problem then lies in having a backward country with no rule that either needs to get one or risk all-out anarchy from a people who've never been allowed to do anything. Putting an entire country under rule requires a monumental effort if you're an attack force. Even if you're 2 million strong (which is a lot, by today's standards), it's still nigh impossible. So the problem is that not much can be done, without Kim Jong Ill (or whatever) going apeshit and then wreaking havoc that then has to first be combated and then fixed by everybody in the region. It's the fixing that costs so much, that no one want to burn their hands on the job.
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by TheGunslinger » Sun Mar 22, 2009 5:36 pm

Yeah, I agree with that, frath0 - running into a platoon that's dug in and prepared as wouldn't be much fun at all. Much less one that's going to be cracking off claymores into you and calling down fire pretty nigh constantly.

Being responsible for North Korea wouldn't be much fun at all - hell, even a lot of the South Koreans don't want a unification because of that. You'd get instant shanty-towns popping up all over South Korea as the migrants move south.

Couple that with even the tiny, shitty nukes that NK has, no one really wants to mess with them. I mean, you'd cop quite a few thousand dead, most likely, a massive clean up bill. Then, it'd cost a fair bit in men, material and money in conquering and reclaiming the North - for what gain? You'd just have to re-industrialise a peasant nation, which wouldn't be fun either.

Sure, Korea as a nation would probably be stronger in 3 or 4 generations, but that's a long way to look ahead.
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by jaybird » Mon Mar 23, 2009 11:34 am

Lynxian wrote:
jaybird wrote:I for one am completely sick of this shit. I am just tired of him and his goons kidnapping folks and the U.N. doing jack-shit about it.

Self-edited for anger
The problem with a crazy dictator that has no realization of how the real world works is a problem when he does little stupid shit. The UN, or whoever, basically, can't do anything without the crazy ass dictator declaring all out war. Now while it's likely that the UN, or whoever, will come out as victor, the problem then lies in having a backward country with no rule that either needs to get one or risk all-out anarchy from a people who've never been allowed to do anything. Putting an entire country under rule requires a monumental effort if you're an attack force. Even if you're 2 million strong (which is a lot, by today's standards), it's still nigh impossible. So the problem is that not much can be done, without Kim Jong Ill (or whatever) going apeshit and then wreaking havoc that then has to first be combated and then fixed by everybody in the region. It's the fixing that costs so much, that no one want to burn their hands on the job.
I know, but we can't just let people go around like that making up their own rules and hurting folks just because of what he MIGHT do. I think they just want an excuse not to deal with it. i agree with the meat of what you say though, lynxian. It's just so frustrating :( (sigh).
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by jaybird » Mon Mar 23, 2009 11:41 am

jaybird wrote:
Lynxian wrote:
jaybird wrote:I for one am completely sick of this shit. I am just tired of him and his goons kidnapping folks and the U.N. doing jack-shit about it.

Self-edited for anger
The problem with a crazy dictator that has no realization of how the real world works is a problem when he does little stupid shit. The UN, or whoever, basically, can't do anything without the crazy ass dictator declaring all out war. Now while it's likely that the UN, or whoever, will come out as victor, the problem then lies in having a backward country with no rule that either needs to get one or risk all-out anarchy from a people who've never been allowed to do anything. Putting an entire country under rule requires a monumental effort if you're an attack force. Even if you're 2 million strong (which is a lot, by today's standards), it's still nigh impossible. So the problem is that not much can be done, without Kim Jong Ill (or whatever) going apeshit and then wreaking havoc that then has to first be combated and then fixed by everybody in the region. It's the fixing that costs so much, that no one want to burn their hands on the job.
I know, but we can't just let people go around like that making up their own rules and hurting folks just because of what he MIGHT do. I think they just want an excuse not to deal with it. What if in WW2 ,or even the first, all the strongest nations in the world just threw up their hands and said," it can't be helped"? I agree with the meat of what you say though, lynxian. We don't want another 'Nam-like situation or a restart of the Cold-War, and we've done well with the idea that a country of that kind frequently collapses of it's own weight, but that can be mighty cold comfort to folks who have relatives who've been kidnapped and not seen for sometimes decades or killed by him. It's just so frustrating :( (sigh).
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by TC » Sat Mar 28, 2009 2:55 pm

Just thought I'd update this thread, as things seem to be creeping closer to the launch:
The Times wrote: North Korea prepares rocket for ‘satellite’ launch

Washington North Korea is loading a Taepodong rocket in anticipation of the launch of a communications satellite next month, US officials said.

Regional powers, however, worry that the claim is a cover for the launch of a long-range missile capable of reaching Alaska. In 1998 North Korea faked a satellite launch to cloak a missile development test.
The Times wrote: Japan ready to shoot down any North Korean missile

Japan gave its military the green light to shoot down any incoming North Korean rocket on Friday, with tensions high ahead of a planned launch that the United States and allies say will be an illegal missile test.

Japanese and US warships have already been deployed ahead of the April 4-8 window, when the secretive North Korea has said it will launch a communications satellite - warning that shooting it down would be seen as an act of war.
I was chatting to my girlfriend the other day, who is South Korean, and she was telling me that the SK news sites are saying that if the missile is shot down, it could end up over Seoul. Not sure how true this is, but it could suck. She also told me that the vast majority of SK citizens are apathetic about this whole thing... I know I wouldn't be if I were in their shoes...
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by El Maximo » Sat Mar 28, 2009 3:29 pm

I for one hope the missile gets blown out of the sky. This is a perfect and rare opportunity for some interesting political action - North Korea calls shooting their missile down an act of war, yet it's likely it will be shot down. With such a forceful statement put behind a near inevitable event, either North Korea will prove a coward and lose face, or go to war. Which will it be? I can think of no small petty action they can take to retaliate for such an offense as shooting down their "satellite".

That North Korean blackmail they do to gain economic aid bugs the hell out of me - it'll be nice to finally stand firm and say NO on something rather than negotiate.
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by MaxRite » Sat Mar 28, 2009 7:09 pm

El Maximo wrote: I can think of no small petty action they can take to retaliate for such an offense as shooting down their "satellite".

.

I can. NK possesses large arsenal of MRBMs with conventional, chemical and (possibly) few nuclear warheads. In response to shooting down their satellite, they can launch dozens, if not hundreds of them at Japan's cities, while remaining in defensive position and not crossing DMZ. Neither Japan nor SK has such weapons and would have to retaliate with land invasion on NK, air strikes or getting US involved. Any of those sound like fun?
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by ista_hota » Sat Mar 28, 2009 9:23 pm

MaxRite wrote:
El Maximo wrote: I can think of no small petty action they can take to retaliate for such an offense as shooting down their "satellite".

.

I can. NK possesses large arsenal of MRBMs with conventional, chemical and (possibly) few nuclear warheads. In response to shooting down their satellite, they can launch dozens, if not hundreds of them at Japan's cities, while remaining in defensive position and not crossing DMZ. Neither Japan nor SK has such weapons and would have to retaliate with land invasion on NK, air strikes or getting US involved. Any of those sound like fun?
The only reason Japan lacks that kind of thing, imho, is because she chooses to. Let's not confuse Japan with one of these random states putting all of their scientific worth into developing POS 50 year old tech - if pushed to a point where Japan feels it NEEDS long range strike capability and/or nuclear capability, it's not a question of "can they do it?", it's a question of "how many hours will it take them to do it?"

The Japanese are extremely smart. They're not going to retaliate with a land invasion, they'll just go, "Oh okay then, gimme a couple days and I'll show you... motherfucker......"

Again, IMHO - a political analyst I am not, and never claimed to be.

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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by TheGunslinger » Sat Mar 28, 2009 11:10 pm

Uh, no.

The Japanese wouldn't be able to just turn around and develop a medium missle capability in a few days. Sure, you're probably using hyperbole, but even still their constitution forbids it.

Seeing as they wouldn't really need to - the US would retaliate on their behalf.

I'd also like to see their satellite shot down, though. If anything to put a halt on NK's bullshit demands.

Sure, they have missiles that they can launch at SK and Japan and yes, them doing so would suck. But they know that if they do something like that, if they launch an extensive missile strikes on Japan or do something to re open hostilities, they've signed their death warrant.

There'd be US tanks in Pyongyang in 2 months, I'd reckon. North Korea gets to rattle it's sabre only because it's still cheaper to pay them off in some light fuel reactors, food aid and other bits and pieces than it is to rebuild after missile strikes and invade and rebuild North Korea. Once they use the one shot in their locker, they'd be hammered into the ground.

They know that, though - so they play the brinkmanship game. Demanding just enough for their needs to be met, but not being big enough or annoying enough to warrant a pre-emptive strike.
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by MaxRite » Sun Mar 29, 2009 12:09 am

ista_hota wrote:
MaxRite wrote:
El Maximo wrote: I can think of no small petty action they can take to retaliate for such an offense as shooting down their "satellite".

.

I can. NK possesses large arsenal of MRBMs with conventional, chemical and (possibly) few nuclear warheads. In response to shooting down their satellite, they can launch dozens, if not hundreds of them at Japan's cities, while remaining in defensive position and not crossing DMZ. Neither Japan nor SK has such weapons and would have to retaliate with land invasion on NK, air strikes or getting US involved. Any of those sound like fun?
The only reason Japan lacks that kind of thing, imho, is because she chooses to. Let's not confuse Japan with one of these random states putting all of their scientific worth into developing POS 50 year old tech - if pushed to a point where Japan feels it NEEDS long range strike capability and/or nuclear capability, it's not a question of "can they do it?", it's a question of "how many hours will it take them to do it?"

The Japanese are extremely smart. They're not going to retaliate with a land invasion, they'll just go, "Oh okay then, gimme a couple days and I'll show you... motherfucker......"

Again, IMHO - a political analyst I am not, and never claimed to be.

Agree on all counts. Absolutely. If pushed Japanese can ammend their Constitution and turn into a top-rated military power in a matter of a decade, perhaps. But in the event SHTF over this NK missile launch in april, Japan will not have the tool to retaliate, deter or protect their homeland from missile attack. Land or sea action is out of question.
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by ista_hota » Sun Mar 29, 2009 12:13 am

TheGunslinger wrote:Uh, no.

The Japanese wouldn't be able to just turn around and develop a medium missle capability in a few days. Sure, you're probably using hyperbole, but even still their constitution forbids it.
Yes, I was of course exaggerating to add a little levity - but you've highlighted EXACTLY what I was alluding to - the Japanese lack these capabilities for two reasons;

1) Their Constitution (being the "choice" I referred to).
2) As you mentioned, we "have their back".

I don't think anyone is going to argue that Japanese and Korean tech and manufacturing capabilities are even close to the same - that's kind of what I'm getting it, and I think, personally, that should the Japanese be attacked in such a manner they would be pretty quick to amend their Constitution, if you know what I mean.

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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by suntzu » Sun Mar 29, 2009 5:14 am

jaybird wrote:I for one am completely sick of this shit. I am just tired of him and his goons kidnapping folks and the U.N. doing jack-shit about it.
:lol: Hoo boy, thanks, I needed that...

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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by TheGunslinger » Sun Mar 29, 2009 5:31 am

Why? It was the UN that sent in the forces to drive them back the first time, it wouldn't be that unreasonable to expect them (Or at least a coalition of forces) to do it again.

Maxrite - Even with the 'push' that would be given from a missile attack from North Korea, I wouldn't imagine them amending their constitution to create a land force to invade North Korea anytime soon.

It'd be unlikely that they'd go anywhere - but there's no way the South Koreans would let Japanese troops on their soil, no way at all.

Actually, I would think that one of the few things that would make China get North Korea's back like they did the first time around would be Japanese soldiers fighting in the Korea's again.
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Re: North Korea Saber Rattling

Post by TC » Sun Mar 29, 2009 2:54 pm

TheGunslinger wrote:Uh, no.

The Japanese wouldn't be able to just turn around and develop a medium missle capability in a few days. Sure, you're probably using hyperbole, but even still their constitution forbids it.

You are, of course, right about not being able to pull missile tech out of a hat, but your point about the Japanese Constitution is not so valid.

I recently wrote a paper on why Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution is becoming almost completely impotent, not least because despite not having an official military, they are one of the best armed countries in the world, being fifth in the world in terms of military expenditure in 2007. Having been involved in the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns has brought Japan pretty much to the point where it is obvious that they have a military that is just called something else (it's actually technically a police force).

Of course, there are things that they have done to stay within the limits of the constitution, such as removing their F-4 Phantom's capabilities to refuel in mid-air so as to limit them to Japanese air space, but name me one other police force in the world that has F-4's at all.

I don't think that this is a bad thing though. Pretty much ever since the US drew up Article 9 they have wished that the Japanese could have had a proper armed force capable of being sent abroad to help in US conflicts. IMHO, it's about time they stopped screwing around and just amended their constitution. Call a spade a spade as it were. The Japanese public doesn't even really care one way or another according to numerous surveys. It's not like they would have to change much, such as their non-proliferation of nuclear weapons stance, nor would they have to have the US leave Japan.

I would be interested to see, hypothetically speaking, how the Japanese would respond to an attack on their territory. It's one thing to shoot down a missile that has entered their air space, it's another to strike back against the aggressor if he should retaliate against the loss of his missile.
KentsOkay wrote: I immediately thought about calling 911, but once we got to the T stop and got her out of her jeans, things seemed to be going a lot better.
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