Mexico becoming a failed state?

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absinthe beginner
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:42 pm

The Shoot-Out Over Chapo’s Son Is a Major 'Clusterfuck' for AMLO

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/mbmk ... k-for-amlo

The deadly shoot-out in Culiacán bookends an especially deadly week in Mexico’s drug war. On Monday, an ambush in western Mexico ended in the massacre of 13 officers by the Jalisco New Generation cartel. In a separate incident Wednesday, a gunfight between the military and suspected organized crime in the state of Guerrero left 15 people dead.

These incidents are red meat to López Obrador’s critics who argue the president’s security strategy is faltering and that cartels are feeling emboldened. Security experts also said López Obrador’s decision to release Ovidio Guzmán marked a striking breakdown in his security strategy that could strain relations with the U.S., which reportedly was seeking Guzman's extradition.

“This is a clusterfuck,” said Alejandro Hope, a security analyst in Mexico City. “There have been many mistakes in operations trying to capture kingpins. Most of them ended up with the escape of the kingpin. What had never happened — until now — was they actually capture the kingpin and then release him.”

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:52 pm

"There is no pact with criminals ... there is no failed state"

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2019/10/t ... there.html

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Stercutus » Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:29 pm

He has called the policy “hugs, not bullets,”
Hmmm... looking at Mexico vs Philippines is instructive. In the latter country crime has dropped 30% over three years. Sure murder is up but that is easily explained. They are paying bounties to murder the criminals. The drug gangs have been forced off the streets and in to hiding.
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:16 pm

This isn't scary, it's terrifying. In no small part because it's real. So much for taking me, PaleFace, & my income to Mexico. Or the PI.

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by woodsghost » Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:39 pm

MPMalloy wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:16 pm
This isn't scary, it's terrifying. In no small part because it's real. So much for taking me, PaleFace, & my income to Mexico. Or the PI.
Have you considered Chile?
*Remember: I'm just a guy on the internet :)
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by williaty » Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:44 pm

woodsghost wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:39 pm
MPMalloy wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:16 pm
This isn't scary, it's terrifying. In no small part because it's real. So much for taking me, PaleFace, & my income to Mexico. Or the PI.
Have you considered Chile?
Not sure if your post is a joke given the news, but in case it isn't: there's major rioting in Santiago currently.

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by woodsghost » Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:58 pm

williaty wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:44 pm
woodsghost wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:39 pm
MPMalloy wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:16 pm
This isn't scary, it's terrifying. In no small part because it's real. So much for taking me, PaleFace, & my income to Mexico. Or the PI.
Have you considered Chile?
Not sure if your post is a joke given the news, but in case it isn't: there's major rioting in Santiago currently.
Just saw that a few minutes ago. And Chile still seems better than most other countries down south.

Costa Rica would work, but might be too expensive now. A lot of rich Americans seem to have noticed it lately. I don't know.

Belieze might be worth considering, and the official language is English.

But if I had to move tonight, it would be to Chile. There are some other issues there too, besides the fuel(?) riots, but my bet is they have the best long term prospects.

Outside of Latin America, I'd consider Poland or Finland.
*Remember: I'm just a guy on the internet :)
*Don't go to stupid places with stupid people & do stupid things.
*Be courteous. Look normal. Be in bed by 10'clock.

“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” -Bilbo Baggins.

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:01 pm

woodsghost wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:58 pm
williaty wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:44 pm
woodsghost wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:39 pm
MPMalloy wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:16 pm
This isn't scary, it's terrifying. In no small part because it's real. So much for taking me, PaleFace, & my income to Mexico. Or the PI.
Have you considered Chile?
Not sure if your post is a joke given the news, but in case it isn't: there's major rioting in Santiago currently.
Just saw that a few minutes ago. And Chile still seems better than most other countries down south.

Costa Rica would work, but might be too expensive now. A lot of rich Americans seem to have noticed it lately. I don't know.

Belieze might be worth considering, and the official language is English.

But if I had to move tonight, it would be to Chile. There are some other issues there too, besides the fuel(?) riots, but my bet is they have the best long term prospects.

Outside of Latin America, I'd consider Poland or Finland.
Poland has strong protections. There is another EU country but I can't remember the name. I was thinking about NZ...that's out. N.H. or LA for now. If I move. The folks are getting up there in age. My Step-Father is having t.rouble getting his BP under control so he can have surgery. Everyone is getting older.

Review BOL sites here for the time being.

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Stercutus » Sun Oct 20, 2019 3:57 pm

I don't think anyone has looked to Poland as a place of security in the last few hundred years.
You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
I go through

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by NT2C » Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:21 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 3:57 pm
I don't think anyone has looked to Poland as a place of security in the last few hundred years.
Hey, the middle of the railroad tracks can be perfectly safe if you stay low enough.
Nonsolis Radios Sediouis Fulmina Mitto. - USN Gunner's Mate motto

Sic quemadmodum gladius neminem occidit; occidentis telum est - Seneca the Younger, Epistles

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Stercutus » Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:50 pm

NT2C wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:21 pm
Stercutus wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 3:57 pm
I don't think anyone has looked to Poland as a place of security in the last few hundred years.
Hey, the middle of the railroad tracks can be perfectly safe if you stay low enough.
Not when you lay perpendicular to the rails. Then you get run over and split in to two.
You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
I go through

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by NT2C » Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:05 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:50 pm
NT2C wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:21 pm
Stercutus wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 3:57 pm
I don't think anyone has looked to Poland as a place of security in the last few hundred years.
Hey, the middle of the railroad tracks can be perfectly safe if you stay low enough.
Not when you lay perpendicular to the rails. Then you get run over and split in to two.
Are we making a Polish joke? I hope not. I don't want to have to give myself a time-out. :? :clownshoes:
Nonsolis Radios Sediouis Fulmina Mitto. - USN Gunner's Mate motto

Sic quemadmodum gladius neminem occidit; occidentis telum est - Seneca the Younger, Epistles

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Stercutus » Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:57 pm

NT2C wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:05 pm
Stercutus wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:50 pm
NT2C wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:21 pm
Stercutus wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 3:57 pm
I don't think anyone has looked to Poland as a place of security in the last few hundred years.
Hey, the middle of the railroad tracks can be perfectly safe if you stay low enough.
Not when you lay perpendicular to the rails. Then you get run over and split in to two.
Are we making a Polish joke? I hope not. I don't want to have to give myself a time-out. :? :clownshoes:
It's only funny when it is not happening to you.

Not making fun of Poles. Recognizing their challenges in geography.
You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
I go through

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by flybynight » Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:41 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 3:57 pm
I don't think anyone has looked to Poland as a place of security in the last few hundred years.
The Polish do.
As of now I bet you got me wrong

John Titor was right

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by raptor » Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:22 pm

The Czech Republic is another place in the EU with a similar sense of self determination. Praque Spring comes to mind.

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:31 pm

raptor wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:22 pm
The Czech Republic is another place in the EU with a similar sense of self determination. Praque Spring comes to mind.
That's the country!


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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by absinthe beginner » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:38 am

US Congress is worried about the terrorist techniques of narcos

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2019/11/u ... orist.html

Gunmen kill Mormon family members in north Mexico

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexi ... SKBN1XF0K1

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by raptor » Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:58 pm

More proof of the fact that narcos are low lifes; not that much proof was needed.
BABIES were reportedly burned alive and kids shot in the back after ruthless cartel killers slaughtered nine US Mormons in a "targeted" hit in Mexico.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... exico.html

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10280224/ ... lies-dead/

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Asymetryczna » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:34 pm

The "targeted" explanation is half-assed. Does it mean the cartels and their sicarios are protecting land or ending this family expansion?
Sad that this sickness cannot be stopped because the demand signal is so very high.
It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see.
Henry David Thoreau

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by RoneKiln » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:28 am

Asymetryczna wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:34 pm
The "targeted" explanation is half-assed. Does it mean the cartels and their sicarios are protecting land or ending this family expansion?
Sad that this sickness cannot be stopped because the demand signal is so very high.
There's been violent conflict between the Mormon enclave and the cartels for quite some time. From what I've heard and read, the Mormons get the worst of it as they act completely defensively. On this latest round, I've heard conflicted reports that the Mormons were intentionally targeted vs others that it was mistaken identity and someone else was meant to be targeted. My current wild guess with very minimal information would be that the Mormons were targeted due to that long running conflict.

My takeaway from this scenario is that a local warlord during societal breakdown may completely tear your people apart solely to show dominance. People don't always act in their best interest. They often act on ego, even if it brings no real benefit. This may be relevant to the "coming civil war" thread as well.

I recently listened to a very long interview with a veteran of the Mexican drug war that is now a border security specialist. He was pointing out how much of the cartel leadership sent their kids to the US for school and are grooming them to take over the cartels. In essence, they're already established in the US. If the US becomes destabilized, they'll grow here. If I find it, I'll post it here.
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by RoneKiln » Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:36 am

Found the interview I referenced above.

[YouTube]https://youtu.be/llhb2ymtsw8
[/YouTube]

Here is an interview with a California game warden that also dealt extensively with cartel members in the US. I feel it goes hand in hand with the one above.
[YouTube]https://youtu.be/avZpWVEpiV8[/YouTube]
"Seriously the most dangerous thing you are likely to do is to put salt on a Big Mac right before you eat it and to climb into your car."
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:19 am

RoneKiln wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:36 am
Found the interview I referenced above.

[YouTube]https://youtu.be/llhb2ymtsw8
[/YouTube]

Here is an interview with a California game warden that also dealt extensively with cartel members in the US. I feel it goes hand in hand with the one above.
[YouTube]https://youtu.be/avZpWVEpiV8[/YouTube]
Thank you.

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Stercutus » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:43 am

Here is a long piece on the enclave in Mexico.



Politics Warning: It is a deep dive that was originally intended as a hatchet piece on Romney for the 2012 election. (The Romney family is originally from there.) However the parts about the enclave are actually pretty decent reporting. It was done seven years ago and the situation has declined a lot since then.

There is another reason that you might want to watch it which is observing the interplay of group survival in a failed state that is just powerful enough to suppress you without being powerful enough to protect you. Worst of both worlds really. It is long but well worth it IMO.
You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
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