Global Cooling will kill us all!

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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by RickOShea » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:34 pm

Diesel used to be a lot cheaper than gasoline in the U.S.....Up until about 15 years ago.
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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by LBB » Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:11 pm

RickOShea wrote:Diesel used to be a lot cheaper than gasoline in the U.S.....Up until about 15 years ago.
What changed?

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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by RickOShea » Sat Oct 06, 2012 12:12 am

LBB wrote:
RickOShea wrote:Diesel used to be a lot cheaper than gasoline in the U.S.....Up until about 15 years ago.
What changed?
Hell if I know. It was something that happened slowly over the course of several years....I remember back in highschool gas was $0.90 a gallon, and diesel was around $0.75.

Then diesel started coming up in price to where it was the same as gas, then it eventually started getting more expensive.
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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by Czechnology » Sat Oct 06, 2012 7:09 am

RickOShea wrote:
LBB wrote:
RickOShea wrote:Diesel used to be a lot cheaper than gasoline in the U.S.....Up until about 15 years ago.
What changed?
Hell if I know. It was something that happened slowly over the course of several years....I remember back in highschool gas was $0.90 a gallon, and diesel was around $0.75.

Then diesel started coming up in price to where it was the same as gas, then it eventually started getting more expensive.
Possibly a reduction in the heating oil market, decreasing demand, and increasing price?
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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by phil_in_cs » Sat Oct 06, 2012 8:41 am

See my points earlier about media, science, activists, and shysters. While the example BBC item on the cod isn't exactly on the subject, it does show how folks trying to make a point/buck exaggerated a legit claim. Just because the exaggeration was bogus doesn't me the the science was.

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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by LBB » Sat Oct 06, 2012 10:19 am

Czechnology wrote:
RickOShea wrote:
LBB wrote:
RickOShea wrote:Diesel used to be a lot cheaper than gasoline in the U.S.....Up until about 15 years ago.
What changed?
Hell if I know. It was something that happened slowly over the course of several years....I remember back in highschool gas was $0.90 a gallon, and diesel was around $0.75.

Then diesel started coming up in price to where it was the same as gas, then it eventually started getting more expensive.
Possibly a reduction in the heating oil market, decreasing demand, and increasing price?
Explain with the heating oil market.
I know the situation in Germany you have oil heating or you have gas heating,at least outside the cities.

Here I never owned a house so I don't know how people heat, but shouldn't the amount needed for heating be the same all the time?
Or did people switch to electric?

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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by Dawgboy » Sat Oct 06, 2012 12:26 pm

A lot of the price rise in Diesel are due to two things.

1, Taxes. There are increased taxes from both the DOT and various states in an effort to tax roads. If you get red D, (For ag and heating), it's much cheper.

2. Formulation. It used to be that Diesel was just a level in the cracking tower, but various agencies and again, state governments required refiners to re formulate the fuel to remove Carbon particulates, sulfer, heavy oils, Etc to make a cleaner burning fuel and reduce emissions. This was good for our lungs, but unfortunately bad for engines.

And let's not forget profit. Oil companies are always making record profits...
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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by velojym » Sat Oct 06, 2012 12:42 pm

Having spent the majority of my adult life in class-8 trucks, and if I remember correctly, it was the drive for lower sulfur fuel that drove the price up relative to gasoline.
In addition, depending on where your truck falls in that regulatory range, year-wise, you're also stuck with buying DEF to boot.

Also, it was always noticeable, as mentioned right above this post, that fuel prices were awful quick to rise at the slightest hint of a problem, and slow to settle to a level that tended to be at least a bit higher than it was before the spike. As I understand, gas oughta be at about a buck-seventy, based on inflation.
Hard to give up the windfall, though, I suppose.
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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by Czechnology » Sat Oct 06, 2012 1:26 pm

LBB wrote:Or did people switch to electric?
That. More people have Heat Pumps now than 30 years ago.
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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by Confucius » Sat Oct 06, 2012 1:35 pm

Czechnology wrote:
LBB wrote:Or did people switch to electric?
That. More people have Heat Pumps now than 30 years ago.
Is that a big thing? I'd have figured a lot more natural gas...

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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by RickOShea » Sat Oct 06, 2012 1:42 pm

Confucius wrote:
Czechnology wrote:
LBB wrote:Or did people switch to electric?
That. More people have Heat Pumps now than 30 years ago.
Is that a big thing? I'd have figured a lot more natural gas...
Yup, the power company I work for used to give away free electric water heaters and stoves, if you got rid of your gas-fired models.

ETA: Ironically, they charge people a higher service charge if they have an electric tankless water heater (instead of a gas one), because the electric models cumulatively cause a steep rise in peak demand.....which causes an increase in the cost of wholesale power from the generation companies. :?
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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by found mojo » Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:03 pm

Saw this on Gawker. Predictions of 4 degrees Celsius temperature rise by the end of century. Regardless of your stance on CO2 emissions, this is definitely something that will affect the next generations.

http://climatechange.worldbank.org/cont ... ld-century" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by LowKey » Fri Nov 23, 2012 7:11 am

Czechnology wrote:
LBB wrote:Or did people switch to electric?
That. More people have Heat Pumps now than 30 years ago.
I honestly can't remember the source of this, but I recall reading an artice that a goodly number of those heat pump installation installations are starting to loose thier effectiveness. Something about cumulative rise of subsurface grou d temperatures over the years as the pumps dump the heat down there faster than the heat can be dissipated (in hot climates). Vice versa in cold climates.
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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by Dan_Jorgenson » Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:41 am

Back to the topic of effects of climate change....

A few years ago i modelled an exponential function that calculated the equivalent rise in sea level from the water released in the combustion process of all the oil, gas and coal burned in a year (begining with 2005 with an average growth of 2% increase per year). The figures i used were estimates with the surface area of the sea at 3.61 x 10^ 8 km^2 and between 113.966 and 236.191 x 10^6 m^3 of water formed (average 175.07 x 10^6 m^3).

The equation looks like: 0.6542688 x e^(0.024692612577 x y) where y is years after 2005. When y is one (the rise in 2005) the increase was 0.654269mm. Subbing in new values for y gives the equivalent rise in sea level for the respective year after 2005 and differentiating gives the cumulative total.

While i would'nt consider the equation accurate it is a contributing factor that i haven't heard included in the discussion of rise in sea level.

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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by We'reWolf » Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:29 am

phil_in_cs wrote:
andygates wrote:2) The solar activity cycle has a small influence, but it's a little one, over 11-year cycles. All that does is put a wiggle on the relentless CO2-driven upward trend. Ditto the other variations like El Nino, ocean current cycles, and so on.
Per NASA and NOAA, the El Niño / La Niña is totally solar driven. By extension, the airflows from those control where hurricane's tend to land and the extended La Niña is what's been driving them off the US for the last several years. I think it is 4 years now since a major / cat 3 storm has hit the US. Lots of storms; yes, but they churn around the ocean and don't worry any one but the fish.
to my understanding the nina/nino are driven by the trade winds and weakened or strong currents bringing in cooler more nutriant rich water. that effects the plankton life and change the calcuim carboniate. it is usually a 4-7 year cycle. when there is a la nina in south america there will be an el nino in north... nasa did not say that it was solar driven or not but it was a brief article.
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookin ... lnino.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by We'reWolf » Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:29 am

phil_in_cs wrote:
andygates wrote:2) The solar activity cycle has a small influence, but it's a little one, over 11-year cycles. All that does is put a wiggle on the relentless CO2-driven upward trend. Ditto the other variations like El Nino, ocean current cycles, and so on.
Per NASA and NOAA, the El Niño / La Niña is totally solar driven. By extension, the airflows from those control where hurricane's tend to land and the extended La Niña is what's been driving them off the US for the last several years. I think it is 4 years now since a major / cat 3 storm has hit the US. Lots of storms; yes, but they churn around the ocean and don't worry any one but the fish.
to my understanding the nina/nino are driven by the trade winds and weakened or strong currents bringing in cooler more nutriant rich water. that effects the plankton life and change the calcuim carboniate. it is usually a 4-7 year cycle. when there is a la nina in south america there will be an el nino in north... nasa did not say that it was solar driven or not but it was a brief article.
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookin ... lnino.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_El_Ni ... ts_effects" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by Tater Raider » Mon Dec 31, 2012 11:17 am

And farmers. Farmers tend to watch that current closely because it is a major factor driving the current weather pattern, whatever that happens to be in the Western Hemisphere.

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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by phil_in_cs » Mon Dec 31, 2012 11:37 am

My understanding is La Niña / El Niño is the pattern of the trade winds and associated other weather patterns. NOAA is primarily tasked with the US, so the rotations are what affects us. The wind patterns themselves are in turn driven by the solar energy; the Pacific being a giant heat sink.

The key bit here is that these are weather systems and unrelated to any climate effects.
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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by We'reWolf » Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:31 pm

also someone said that the last ice age was 10,000 years ago which i think didn't take into account the mini ice age that happened from 1400-1800/1900's.
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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by We'reWolf » Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:36 pm

phil_in_cs wrote:My understanding is La Niña / El Niño is the pattern of the trade winds and associated other weather patterns. NOAA is primarily tasked with the US, so the rotations are what affects us. The wind patterns themselves are in turn driven by the solar energy; the Pacific being a giant heat sink.

The key bit here is that these are weather systems and unrelated to any climate effects.
is solar output different?i know that the wind pressure systems get weaker and stronger but i think thats just how the ocean gyre works
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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by dogbane » Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:08 pm

We'reWolf wrote:also someone said that the last ice age was 10,000 years ago which i think didn't take into account the mini ice age that happened from 1400-1800/1900's.
Geologically speaking, we are still in an ice age, albeit an interglacial period. Maybe not for much longer, though.
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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by Tater Raider » Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:11 pm

dogbane wrote:
We'reWolf wrote:also someone said that the last ice age was 10,000 years ago which i think didn't take into account the mini ice age that happened from 1400-1800/1900's.
Geologically speaking, we are still in an ice age, albeit an interglacial period. Maybe not for much longer, though.
The following is a legit question and not a sarcastic dig: Would that mean that global warming would be the climate returning to its correct baseline and that the main problem with global warming is the issues it causes homo sapiens?

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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by williaty » Tue Jan 01, 2013 3:23 pm

Tater Raider wrote:The following is a legit question and not a sarcastic dig: Would that mean that global warming would be the climate returning to its correct baseline and that the main problem with global warming is the issues it causes homo sapiens?
The biggest single problem is the rate of change. If the climate changes slowly enough (as it has in the past), it gives plants and animals time to either evolve to fit the new climate or time to migrate to an area that now has the local climate they were used to previously. Anthropogenic climate change is causing the rate of change to far exceed what the earth has normally done in the past on its own. This means it's happening so fast that plants and animals (and us) can't adapt, evolve, or migrate quickly enough to keep up. Just as a few things to think through for you, consider the effects on water. Right now, we're lucky to have a decent amount of rain falling on decent land for farming several places around the world. This gives us the ability to produce quite a bit of food. Enough to feed most of the world's population. How are we going to react to the rainfall patterns changing? If you look (as a not-great example) at what's happening in the American West and Midwest, there's a lot of the food-producing portion of the country in a multi-year drought. What if that's the new normal? Where are we going to have enough open land, good soil, and rainfall to grow crops if we're not going to be able to do it in Kansas? The Rockies and Appalachians are out, for obvious reasons. Most of both coasts are out due to population density leaving no room for farms. If the change took a thousand years, the gradual re-zoning would happen as people in area with less rain went bankrupt and people opened new farms where they'd work. However, if it's going to happen over the course of a decade or two, no one will be able to react fast enough. Consider also the idea of slightly rising sea levels. One of the things even slight sea level changes can do is to produce fairly dramatic changes in how high the storm surge reaches. What are we going to do if sea level and other climate changes make the flooding of the New York City area the new normal? If people are getting flooded out of their skyscrapers, and we're incurring billions of dollars of damages, every 2 or 3 years, how long before most of the city of New York tries to move somewhere else? Where do we have the excess capacity in infrastructure to handle that many people if the exmigration happens over 10 years? There's dozens more examples of the kinds of problems we're going to have to deal with in the coming decades but they all come down to having to make large infrastructure and societal changes in a contextually short amount of time in an economy increasingly debt-ridden and resource starved.

So the primary problems for humans are going to be that things are going to happen faster than we can overcome our institutional inertia and do something about. We've lost at least, what, 20 years already bickering without talking seriously about reaction plans. So we're 20 years behind the power curve already and not yet trying to catch up.

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Re: Global Cooling will kill us all!

Post by LowKey » Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:42 am

Somewhat of a follow up to the previous question (also not a sarcastic dig)-
In the past it had been belived that the onset of glacation was gradual, and this theory persisted for decades until further research and discoveries displaced it with the present theory that the processes is much more rapid, occurring over a few decades.
What evidence do we have that supports that a natural post glaciation return to the "normal" hotter baseline temperature is a gradual change rather than a rapid one? There have been mass extinction events in the past....could they not in some cases been caused by rapid warming of the climate? One I am thinking of is the die off of mega fauna at the end of a previous period of glaciation....

Not that the answer would change the conditions humanity to which humanity would need to rapidly adapt, but if rapid climate change in both warming and cooling are proven to be the norm then perhaps people would stop wasting time blaming themselves and others for a natural process that can't be stopped and direct their energies and resources to adapting to the change.
Last edited by LowKey on Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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