COVID-19 Thread

Stuff that’s happening in the world that may pertain to our survival. Please keep political debates off the forum.

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Re: Daily Dose of CrazyPants

Post by Aeacus » Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:56 pm

I've been watching the medcram updates and this one had an breakdown of the Lancet article on hospitalization of the seriously sick. Looks like average time to symptoms is a little over 5 days but can be up to 14 days. Between this and the discussion of the German cases transmission timeline in an earlier video, this series has helped me get a little bit of a grip on probable timelines.


Raptor,

As to lack of reported cases, I'm pretty pessimistic. Until we hear that the CDC has expanded local testing and expanding the criteria for screening pneumonia cases, I don't think we'll catch the out breaks until we have 3-5 hospitalized patients at the same facility. As long as you don't have travel history, no one is currently testing for the coronavirus. Any symptoms are assumed to be the flu. So a couple people are going to have to get seriously sick and then tested before we hear about it. That means 5-13 days for symptoms, another 7 days on average before hospitalization, and then you develop shortness of breath and maybe pneumonia in another day or so. So the lag time for a non-traveling patient is going to be somewhere around 12-20 days before they get tested, assuming the Lancet study statistics holds true in the US population.

For larger cities, that means it could be a week or two before we hear anything even if the virus is spreading freely right now. I'm afraid it also means that it will be extremely hard to contact trace all the people that have been exposed.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Elusive Despot » Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:35 pm

Fears thick 'death' smog over Wuhan confirms China is burning coronavirus bodies
Wuhan, like many Chinese cities, has a high pollution rate and there is no hard evidence to confirm that the smog is anything to do with bodies being burned.

However, that hasn't stopped people speculating about the increased pollution, with one Twitter user writing: "Incinerators are running 24 hours a day.

"It takes 1-3 to incinerate a body, that's burning 112-336 bodies A DAY!

"Death toll is definitely unthinkably higher than what's been given."

Another woman wrote on social media: "Everyone knows the seriousness, but at this time, I can only express it here!

“The crematoriums of major funeral homes in Wuhan currently working 24 hours!

“Before, it was only half a day to open the stove! Even in special circumstances, it is only a full day shift!”
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest ... r-21426098

Below are the links to air quality reports for Wuhan.

https://air.plumelabs.com/air-quality-in-wuhan-7vZ5
Very Poor
121 AQI
OUTDOOR SPORTS
BRING BABY OUT
EATING OUTSIDE
The air has reached a very high level of pollution. Effects can be immediately felt by individuals at risk. Everybody feels the effects of a prolonged exposure.
With many cities locked down, factories shut, and traffic seriously reduced, I believe its possible crematoriums could be the culprit. However, that would require the burning of far more bodies than what China has acknowledged.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:57 pm


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Aeacus » Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:12 am

Good news, the FDA just approved a test for local hospitals to use. Details in the Bloomberg article below. Much faster turn around and hopefully part of an expanded screening routine.

Since we’re going to have 70 people quarantined 50 minutes down the road from me, any improvement in processes is good. I’m predicting a local news freak out of massive proportions once we get US breakouts now that we have potentially exposed people in the area.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/article ... =applenews

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by RoneKiln » Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:26 am

Elusive Despot's reference to the air quality has me wondering if that could influence how dangerous the virus is to people. A quick google search indicates China has long had far higher rates of lung disease than the US or Europe, and an insanely high rate of adults has COPD (about 10%). When 10% of all the adults already have COPD, pneumonia and similar infections are going to kill a lot more people.

Even if this spreads widely in the US, it may not be as bad here simply because our lungs are in far better shape despite how out of shape most Americans are.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:36 am



One of the comments:
Stephen Shepherd wrote:Stephen Shepherd - 14 hours ago (edited): My main concern is if the 2019-nCoV gets a foothold in one of the large homeless camps in Los Angeles, San Francisco, NYC or in another large homeless camp in a State, County, or in some other Urban area. If it does hit a homeless camp, the people there will not seek medical attention, and they will spread it to the populated areas around their encampment when they travel away from it, either when they are looking for food, drugs, or panhandling for money.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by darmstrong » Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:50 am

RoneKiln wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:26 am
Elusive Despot's reference to the air quality has me wondering if that could influence how dangerous the virus is to people. A quick google search indicates China has long had far higher rates of lung disease than the US or Europe, and an insanely high rate of adults has COPD (about 10%). When 10% of all the adults already have COPD, pneumonia and similar infections are going to kill a lot more people.

Even if this spreads widely in the US, it may not be as bad here simply because our lungs are in far better shape despite how out of shape most Americans are.
I suspected that the US might fare better than China. The high amount of pollution in Chinese cities increases the occurrence of COPD, Asthma and other lung diseases.

Pandemic, on Netflix, spends a lot of time showing India doctors. Those are areas that the air quality already has a negative effect on lung health.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Elusive Despot » Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:34 am

Did China's Tencent Accidentally Leak The True Terrifying Coronavirus Statistics
Ten days ago, shortly after China first started reporting the cases and deaths associated with the coronavirus epidemic, a UK researcher predicted that over 250,000 Chinese would be infected with the virus by February 4. And while according to official Chinese data, the number of infections has indeed soared in the past two weeks, at just under 25,000 (and roughly 500 deaths), it is a far cry from this dismal prediction, about ten times below that predicted by the epidemiologists.



Is this discrepancy possible? Is the epidemic truly far less serious than conventional epidemiological models predicted? Or is China merely hiding the full extent of the problem?

After all, it the WSJ itself reported in late January , China was explicitly manipulating the casualty number by listing pneumonia as the cause of death instead of coronavirus. Subsequent reports that Wuhan officials were rushing to cremate coronavirus casualties before they could be counted did not add to the credibility of the official data.

But the biggest hit to the narrative and China's officially reported epidemic numbers came overnight, when a slip up in China's TenCent may have revealed the true extent of the coronavirus epidemic on the mainland. And it is nothing short than terrifying.

As the Taiwan Times reports in a report first spotted by user @TheHKGroup, over the weekend, Tencent "seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures", and were far closer to the catastrophic epidemic projections made by Jonathan Read.

According to the report, late on Saturday evening, Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker", showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

And while the number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300, most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.
Image

The numbers on the left are from the screenshot from Feb. 1, 2020. The numbers on the right soon replaced them to reflect the official counts. If this mistake actually revealed the true extent of the outbreak in China then that would explain a lot. All the videos, tweets, and China's apparent over-reaction to an illness that they claim kills fewer people than the flu would all make sense now.


Image

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/did-ch ... statistics
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:10 am

The phrase "lies, damned lies & statistics" comes to mind here.

I notice this site had a big increase in PRC reported cases overnight (24,613 as of this entry) but still no where near the #'s presented above.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

What is the true extent? I am not sure anyone really knows an accurate #, but I am willing to bet that it is significantly higher than the reported 24,613. It is possible IMO they are missing a "0" at the end of the official #.

I still go back to the PRC's reaction to an illness that they claim kills fewer people than influenza.
Closing off a quarantining 80 million +/- people is not something done routinely for an influenza outbreak.

I am trying to stay out tinfoil hat territory here and stick to facts but there are enough inconsistencies here to at least assume otherwise for prep purposes.

In Japan (not the PRC).
BTW this cruise ship's passengers and crew (3,700 people) has been moored and is under quarantine. The people have been ordered to stay in their cabins.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronaviru ... ers-japan/
One again may wonder if the coronavirus mortality is so low why Japanese officials are in effect impounding a large cruise ship for 2 weeks.


Meanwhile this other cruise ship that was detained in Italy was given the all clear.
https://www.foxnews.com/travel/costa-cr ... irus-scare

meanwhile the PRC says:
China has strongly defended its epidemic control measures and called on other nations not to go overboard in their responses. Countries "can assess the epidemic situation in an objective, fair, calm and rational manner, respect authoritative and professional WHO recommendations, understand and support China's epidemic control efforts," foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chenying said at an online news conference on Wednesday. "Fear is worse than any virus."
...and then does this.
As thousands of hospital workers in Hong Kong went on strike to demand the border with mainland China be closed completely, the city announced that all people entering from the mainland, including Hong Kong residents, must be quarantined for 14 days.
...and this:
Shanghai announced that all schools will delay reopening until at least the end of February, rather than the middle of the month as originally planned. The exact date will depend on how the outbreak develops.
Hmmm...about those reported case stats in the PRC....not sure I really believe them...still YMMV.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by the_alias » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:42 am

If you believe the notion those are the true numbers add the confirmed and predicted cases together and look at the death rate doesn't it come out to roughly 10%, that's what Spanish Flu levels high of mortality?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by the_alias » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:47 am

I still go back to the PRC's reaction to an illness that they claim kills fewer people than influenza.
Closing off a quarantining 80 million +/- people is not something done routinely for an influenza outbreak.
Not sure this is fair.

2% mortality is the official line I see.

Flu is something around 0.1% mortality rate.

So I don't think they are claiming it kills fewer people than flu.

Secondly I go back to PRC as a State:

It IS an authoritarian state. China has been an authoritarian society for 1000s of years. They have often feared the people rising up.

Imposing authoritarian shutdown to prevent disorder is totally inline with this society and how it operates.

Better for a communist regime to overreact because they were 'protecting' their people than underreact and face being deposed. The HK riots must be fresh in peoples minds.

Millions of disaffected Chinese who think their government has not done enough...? Bet that makes the Politburo toss and turn at night.

I believe the same goes for other governments - they are being cautious and trying to show they are doing something.

You ask about Japan and the ship.

Japan took flak for NOT quarantining their first evacuation flight...of course they are going to react more strongly now they have taken backlash from their population.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by max v » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:13 pm

First positive blood sample in Belgium. I heard 9 Belgian citizens were repatriated from Wuhan along with 3 of their Chinese relatives.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Elusive Despot » Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:29 pm

Coronavirus: Every hospital in England must create secure zones for patients, leaked NHS documents reveal

All NHS hospitals in England have been ordered to create secure areas for coronavirus testing to “avoid a surge in emergency departments”, according to a leaked NHS letter.

Hospitals have been told to create “coronavirus priority assessment pods” where people will be checked for the virus which will need to be decontaminated each time they are used.

The letter, seen by The Independent and dated 31 January, instructs all chief executives and medical directors to have the pods up and running no later than Friday, 7 February.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 19476.html
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:34 pm

the_alias wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:47 am
I still go back to the PRC's reaction to an illness that they claim kills fewer people than influenza.
Closing off a quarantining 80 million +/- people is not something done routinely for an influenza outbreak.
Not sure this is fair.

2% mortality is the official line I see.

Flu is something around 0.1% mortality rate.

So I don't think they are claiming it kills fewer people than flu.
I accept that criticism of my comment and you are right in that I have seen a wide variety of mortality rates vs influenza. I honestly do not believe anyone really knows the true mortality rate at this point. If the number of cases is understated as is likely but the deaths are accurate that means the mortality rate is lower. That is the problem there appears to be more conjecture than facts available.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html

This shows a 2% mortality rate for Coronavirus vs a .05% for a typical flu season...cars/vehicles cause more deaths in the US than flu.
The new coronavirus outbreak has made headlines in recent weeks, but there's another viral epidemic hitting countries around the world: flu season. But how do these viruses compare, and which one is really more worrisome?

So far, the new coronavirus, dubbed 2019-nCoV, has led to more than 20,000 illnesses and 427 deaths in China, as well as more than 200 illnesses and two deaths outside of mainland China. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has already caused an estimated 19 million illnesses, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

....Vs the Spanish Influenza in 1919 which had a 10% to 20% mortality rate.

http://influenzavirusnet.com/1918-flu-p ... ality.html

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by flybynight » Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:21 pm

It crossed my mind that if the crematoriums were running 24/7 as has been alluded, due to the large amount of people killed by this virus. Wouldn't our spy satellites have picked up these heat blooms? And if so , then our government is complicit with China over the severity of the problem.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Aeacus » Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:53 pm

flybynight wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:21 pm
It crossed my mind that if the crematoriums were running 24/7 as has been alluded, due to the large amount of people killed by this virus. Wouldn't our spy satellites have picked up these heat blooms? And if so , then our government is complicit with China over the severity of the problem.
There are a lot of global politics going on right now. Getting as much access to the epidemic in China is critical right now for most Western countries. This virus will spread here (given it's in India/Thailand/Africa, I don't how anyone can stop the spread now) and our best chance for minimizing its impact to to learn as much as we can from the China outbreak. Crucially we're going to be running treatment studies with antiviral medicines to see if anything works well against this virus. China has the large numbers of patients needed to get a good statistical study done for multiple treatments and you can start ASAP. There is soo much to be done that you need China's assistance for (until you get a major outbreak elsewhere). That's part of the reason the WHO is still brown nosing every press conference.

Yelling liar, liar pants on fire wouldn't accomplish much and would burn those bridges. Plus showing off what your satellites can do is stupid for several reasons (not that it stops certain individuals). I think most people can read between the lines on Western governments pulling back their citizens and nearly banning travel to China. The people making those decisions have access to the intelligence reports. Not to mention the hit China is taking to their economy with these extreme measures. Money talks. Plus the fact that our media is publishing story after story about the numbers being low, means they have a lot of sources willing to talk about that on background.

But the US doesn't want a panic here either and saying the outbreak is really 10-20 times worse than China is telling us would start some serious panic. Right now China's economy is taking most of the hit. In a couple weeks it could be the US and Europe's turn but no leader/government wants to be the one to accelerate that process.

Honestly the mortality rate debate is a bit over blown. Even if this is just as bad as the flu and 80% + of our population catches it do to the long incubation/infectious period and the fact that its a novel virus, it will swamp our medical systems. The flu does enough damage despite the fact we have multi-strain vaccines and treatments for it. I think the flu line is being spread by the government to try and keep people calm. It's a familiar illness. Also one of the few helpful things everyone could do right now is get a flu shot, so why not mention it :)

Medcram has more about treatments we maybe testing against the virus in addition to the normal updates:

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by CG » Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:08 pm

flybynight wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:21 pm
It crossed my mind that if the crematoriums were running 24/7 as has been alluded, due to the large amount of people killed by this virus. Wouldn't our spy satellites have picked up these heat blooms? And if so , then our government is complicit with China over the severity of the problem.
My first question is, how much are the crematoriums there normally ran?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by absinthe beginner » Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:30 pm

China Confirms 70 New Deaths, Raising Global Total To 562

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... tined-hong

‘Of Course We're Panicking:’ Here's What It’s Like Inside Wuhan’s Coronavirus Quarantine Zone

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/z3b3 ... ntine-zone

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by flybynight » Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:18 pm

Aeacus wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:53 pm
flybynight wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:21 pm
It crossed my mind that if the crematoriums were running 24/7 as has been alluded, due to the large amount of people killed by this virus. Wouldn't our spy satellites have picked up these heat blooms? And if so , then our government is complicit with China over the severity of the problem.
There are a lot of global politics going on right now. Getting as much access to the epidemic in China is critical right now for most Western countries. This virus will spread here (given it's in India/Thailand/Africa, I don't how anyone can stop the spread now) and our best chance for minimizing its impact to to learn as much as we can from the China outbreak. Crucially we're going to be running treatment studies with antiviral medicines to see if anything works well against this virus. China has the large numbers of patients needed to get a good statistical study done for multiple treatments and you can start ASAP. There is soo much to be done that you need China's assistance for (until you get a major outbreak elsewhere). That's part of the reason the WHO is still brown nosing every press conference.

Yelling liar, liar pants on fire wouldn't accomplish much and would burn those bridges. Plus showing off what your satellites can do is stupid for several reasons (not that it stops certain individuals). I think most people can read between the lines on Western governments pulling back their citizens and nearly banning travel to China. The people making those decisions have access to the intelligence reports. Not to mention the hit China is taking to their economy with these extreme measures. Money talks. Plus the fact that our media is publishing story after story about the numbers being low, means they have a lot of sources willing to talk about that on background.

But the US doesn't want a panic here either and saying the outbreak is really 10-20 times worse than China is telling us would start some serious panic. Right now China's economy is taking most of the hit. In a couple weeks it could be the US and Europe's turn but no leader/government wants to be the one to accelerate that process.

Honestly the mortality rate debate is a bit over blown. Even if this is just as bad as the flu and 80% + of our population catches it do to the long incubation/infectious period and the fact that its a novel virus, it will swamp our medical systems. The flu does enough damage despite the fact we have multi-strain vaccines and treatments for it. I think the flu line is being spread by the government to try and keep people calm. It's a familiar illness. Also one of the few helpful things everyone could do right now is get a flu shot, so why not mention it :)

Medcram has more about treatments we maybe testing against the virus in addition to the normal updates:
Last I heard , China has refused help from any nations . I believe the word used to describe the offers of help was " shunned ". So I don't think any doctors ( other than China nationals ) are going to be utilizing the large pool of infected for testing.
We know why the flu pandemic of 1918 was called the Spanish flu. If the larger numbers in China are correct , Then we haven't learned from the mistake of 1918.
As far as people panicing . Let me put this in perspective. Let's say a large earthquake strikes off the coast of Africa. A 40meter tsunami is heading for the east coast and the government says we are watching the situation closely. Expect higher than normal tides,
If right now you knew the situation in China was much worse than reported. That the spread of this was inevitable. What would you personally do tonight? Tomorrow? As opposed to what you are doing right now.


ETA If the larger numbers are correct. Unless my calculator is off , that's a 16% fatality rate
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by none1 » Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:23 pm

1) If the official numbers the last few weeks are correct, mortality will be less than 2%. Very common at early stages to have the apparent mortality rate much too high, often 50 to 100% too high, because true # people with disease is unknown and deaths are known, especially while its growing.

2) Is this super super contagious or not? If over 250K people in china have it, and the government is hiding that fact, its super contagious. If it were that super contagious, we should be seeing a lot more transmission in US, and not just 2 cases between spouses. So the official numbers are likely close, give or take a few %, and not off by an order of magnitude.

3) So its likely somewhere between contagious and very contagious, and not super or super super contagious. :) Even at "contagious", we likely will see more cases in US.

4) as an earlier poster pointed out, even with current reported numbers, if this spreads worldwide, its a financial disaster. Flu is a massive problem in USA, thousands of deaths, hundreds of millions of dollars on prevention and treatment. If nCoV becomes just another embedded persistent disease like Flu, that's very bad.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Aeacus » Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:14 am

Flybynight,

China has agreed to allow a WHO group with US experts included to fly in, despite bitching about our travel ban for a day or two. They do want help but are probably concerned about what outsiders are going to see. So hopefully we will be getting good data from drug trials and other treatments.
https://www.kff.org/news-summary/u-s-e ... -congress/

And I just wanted to clarify I wasn’t meaning that anyone here is panicking. I’m referring to the government concerns about it and what I think will happen in the general public as the outbreak gets going in the states. People will buy up all the hand sanitizer, cleaners, and anything else that is recommended, just like all the masks have flown off the shelves now. They’ll probably also wipe out grocery stores inventory and the local news will be a mix of fear and anger. People are going to be pissed if the news starts telling them to wear masks and wash their hands while avoiding people after hearing it was a low risk for so long.

I’d agree that keeping an eye on the horizon and figuring out what you need now is smart. Take a good look at your preps and look for any shortfalls. Masks and goggles are in short supply now but they won’t be the only things if we have an outbreak in a major city. I’ve picked up some extra items to augment my preps and grabbed some luxury treats in case I have to bribe my kids through some cabin fever. Even if we get really lucky and avoid the worst of this, the supply chain disruption from China is going to have ripple affects for a while.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by chills1994 » Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:46 am

A bunch of people are assuming that other countries are NOT lying about their coronavirus numbers.

That's including the US.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by max v » Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:05 am

The infected case in Belgium is being treated at CHU Saint-Pierre, a military hospital in Brussels, where the patient is held in solo quarantine for 2 weeks.

The other 8 citizens have left solo quarantine but are still under close observation. No word on the 3 Chinese relatives.

CHU Saint-Pierre
322, rue Haute
1000 Bruxelles

T. +32 (0)2 535 31 11

Entrée principale - Porte de Hal
105, rue aux Laines, 1000 Bruxelles

Entrée des urgences
290, rue Haute, 1000 Bruxelles

Entrée des consultations
129, Boulevard de Waterloo, 1000 Bruxelles

Entrée principale - César De Paepe
13, rue des Alexiens, 1000 Bruxelles

I would advise people to avoid this area as much as possible.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by flybynight » Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:21 am

Wisconsin health officials confirmed the 12th coronavirus case in the United States on Wednesday.

The patient, who recently visited Beijing and who was exposed to known cases of coronavirus while traveling, tested positive for coronavirus and has not been hospitalized, according to the Wisconsin Department of Health Services.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/10-people-abo ... ories.html
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