Mass Blackouts in California

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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by boskone » Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:21 pm

raptor wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:47 pm
On the heels of a similar proposal in San Francisco, San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo said Monday that the third biggest city in the state is considering multiple options -- including buying out PG&E and turning it into a nonprofit cooperative -- to better serve the electricity needs of its constituents, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.
I have no doubt that they can turn PG&E into a "not for profit" very quickly.
The real question is how will that keep the power flowing?
Oh, it'll keep running fine. The government will allocate funds from non-fee sources, and it'll look like the whole thing's running cheaper and better.

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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by RickOShea » Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:09 pm

raptor wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:47 pm
On the heels of a similar proposal in San Francisco, San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo said Monday that the third biggest city in the state is considering multiple options -- including buying out PG&E and turning it into a nonprofit cooperative -- to better serve the electricity needs of its constituents, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.
I have no doubt that they can turn PG&E into a "not for profit" very quickly.
The real question is how will that keep the power flowing?
LOL, I don't know. There's no guarantee things would get better. They could very well get worse. There are over 900 non-profit electric Co-Ops in the U.S. (including the one I work at)....and just like all the various municipal and investor-owned power companies, some are operated really well and some are run piss-poor.
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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by NT2C » Wed Oct 23, 2019 1:38 am

boskone wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:21 pm
raptor wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:47 pm
On the heels of a similar proposal in San Francisco, San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo said Monday that the third biggest city in the state is considering multiple options -- including buying out PG&E and turning it into a nonprofit cooperative -- to better serve the electricity needs of its constituents, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.
I have no doubt that they can turn PG&E into a "not for profit" very quickly.
The real question is how will that keep the power flowing?
Oh, it'll keep running fine. The government will allocate funds from non-fee sources, and it'll look like the whole thing's running cheaper and better.
That won't suddenly fix the years of infrastructure neglect though. It's going to take a couple of years of very expensive work to do that, and then a fairly high annual budget to maintain it. There's only so much robbing of Peter to pay Paul that you can do before you have to turn the cash flow for Peter back on again.
Nonsolis Radios Sediouis Fulmina Mitto. - USN Gunner's Mate motto

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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by Stercutus » Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:01 am

NT2C wrote:
Wed Oct 23, 2019 1:38 am
boskone wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:21 pm
raptor wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:47 pm
On the heels of a similar proposal in San Francisco, San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo said Monday that the third biggest city in the state is considering multiple options -- including buying out PG&E and turning it into a nonprofit cooperative -- to better serve the electricity needs of its constituents, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.
I have no doubt that they can turn PG&E into a "not for profit" very quickly.
The real question is how will that keep the power flowing?
Oh, it'll keep running fine. The government will allocate funds from non-fee sources, and it'll look like the whole thing's running cheaper and better.
That won't suddenly fix the years of infrastructure neglect though. It's going to take a couple of years of very expensive work to do that, and then a fairly high annual budget to maintain it. There's only so much robbing of Peter to pay Paul that you can do before you have to turn the cash flow for Peter back on again.
It's only really a problem if you pay attention to it. If you ignore it will most likely go away until after you are out of office.
You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by raptor » Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:56 am

RickOShea wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:09 pm


LOL, I don't know. There's no guarantee things would get better. They could very well get worse. There are over 900 non-profit electric Co-Ops in the U.S. (including the one I work at)....and just like all the various municipal and investor-owned power companies, some are operated really well and some are run piss-poor.
Exactly ...it is the operator and their competence that dictates reliability of any machinery...This includes power plants and distribution networks.

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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by boskone » Wed Oct 23, 2019 8:38 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:01 am
NT2C wrote:
Wed Oct 23, 2019 1:38 am
boskone wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:21 pm
raptor wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:47 pm
I have no doubt that they can turn PG&E into a "not for profit" very quickly.
The real question is how will that keep the power flowing?
Oh, it'll keep running fine. The government will allocate funds from non-fee sources, and it'll look like the whole thing's running cheaper and better.
That won't suddenly fix the years of infrastructure neglect though. It's going to take a couple of years of very expensive work to do that, and then a fairly high annual budget to maintain it. There's only so much robbing of Peter to pay Paul that you can do before you have to turn the cash flow for Peter back on again.
It's only really a problem if you pay attention to it. If you ignore it will most likely go away until after you are out of office.
Plus there's always "The evil corporation left us with such a mess that we're going to have to levy temporary taxes to fix it", with the additional benefit of being able to just not get rid of the tax later after people are kinda used to it.

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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by woodsghost » Wed Oct 23, 2019 8:57 pm

I really don't get what y'all are talking about. Where I come from, "mass blackouts" are a sign people had too much to drink.
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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by RickOShea » Wed Oct 23, 2019 9:35 pm

raptor wrote:
Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:56 am
RickOShea wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:09 pm


LOL, I don't know. There's no guarantee things would get better. They could very well get worse. There are over 900 non-profit electric Co-Ops in the U.S. (including the one I work at)....and just like all the various municipal and investor-owned power companies, some are operated really well and some are run piss-poor.
Exactly ...it is the operator and their competence that dictates reliability of any machinery...This includes power plants and distribution networks.
Well, with distribution Co-Ops you often get to spread the blame around. Typically, if you have a power bill in your name, then you are also a voting member of the Co-Op....you and the other members get to elect who sits on the Co-Op's board of directors. If the majority wants reliability, they vote in board members that promote reliability. If the majority wants cheaper rates, they vote in board members that promote cheaper rates. In the case of the latter, if things go sideways for a lack of maintenance due to cost cutting for lower rates, then the member/customers get a share of the blame. :crazy:
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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by Stercutus » Thu Oct 24, 2019 4:51 pm

https://news.yahoo.com/wildfire-rages-i ... 05570.html
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — A Northern California wildfire exploded in size early Thursday as dangerously windy weather prompted the state's largest utility to impose electrical blackouts in an effort to prevent fire catastrophes. The fire in the Sonoma County wine region north of San Francisco grew to more than 15 square miles (39 square kilometers) before dawn and authorities ordered evacuations near the small community of Geyserville.
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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Oct 24, 2019 7:27 pm


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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by raptor » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:43 am

More blackouts for CA.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/californ ... 31069.html

BTW I noticed no shortage of smaller portable generators available through the usual channels and was a bit surprised by that until I read on many this phrase.
Can not be shipped to the state of California. Not CARB compliant.


Granted there are many that say to the effect:
POWERING EVERYONE ANYWHERE: Like all REDACTED generators, the REDACTED is EPA and CARB approved for use in all 50 states.
Still this does not seem to causing a shortage of the portable generators.

On the other hand I read about a higher demand for batteries for solar panels.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/after-pg-e ... batteries/
"It's an ironic situation — you have solar panels but you can't generate power," said Aart Bik, a 50-year-old software engineer living in Silicon Valley. Bik installed solar panels on his house shortly after he moved there three years ago, but decided against a battery that can cost more than $10,000.

"We thought about getting batteries, but we thought, 'How often here will we have power outages?' It comes with an additional cost. It costs more to install and the batteries wear out after a while," he recalled.
Batteries in a grid tied installation are of questionable value due to initial cost, R&M/replacement cost issues and the fact that even for $15,000 the run time is generally very limited. Batteries are only useful to the extent that you have power to charge them.

A simple generator tied into the house upstream (in front) of the solar panel inverter input will provide more power, still utilize the panel output to reduce fuel usage and provide more power for as long as fuel is available. The cost of such an generator and associated wiring (if done at the same time as the solar installation ) could be as low as $1,500.

BTW a reasonable and cost effective alternative for residents in this instance is a hotel room outside of the affected area @ ~ $100+/- per night. You can but a lot of hotel stays for $10,000.

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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by raptor » Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:07 pm

BTW the cost to simply buy PG&E outright just got a lot lower.
Their market cap is down to $2.64 billion at closing down from ~$180 billion (last 52 wk high point).

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/bankrup ... 39797.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PCG?p=P ... c=fin-srch

So for a paltry $2.64 billion (add in about 5% to 10% extra million for legal and investment banking fees) and you too could take PG&E private (or co-op) and have their entire organization to call your own ( the assets & customers as well as the class action lawsuits).
Buy up the shares, keep it in bankruptcy as long as possible to avoid compliance issues and then discharge as much of the debts and liabilities as you can. While in bankruptcy negotiate indemnity for future incidents, get the bankruptcy judge to order an increase in rates to cover the infrastructure costs and prevent future claims. Once all the issues are ironed out you have a company that is worth 10x the acquisition cost albeit with more debt to cover the infrastructure repairs but a lot more revenue to cover the extra costs. Still a significant ROI for anyone with a spare $ 3 billion or so laying around and willing to invest 24 months in the effort.

Apple and Google are you listening? You guys have that in the petty cash fund drawing .5% interest. You also have the political count to make it happen and spin it into a rescue story.

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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by Stercutus » Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:32 pm

It is a PR nightmare, no win situation from go. Let the state buy it and drive it into the ground. They will achieve Puerto Rico like power reliability in weeks.
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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by NT2C » Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:36 pm

raptor wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:07 pm
BTW the cost to simply buy PG&E outright just got a lot lower.
Their market cap is down to $2.64 billion at closing down from ~$180 billion (last 52 wk high point).

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/bankrup ... 39797.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PCG?p=P ... c=fin-srch

So for a paltry $2.64 billion (add in about 5% to 10% extra million for legal and investment banking fees) and you too could take PG&E private (or co-op) and have their entire organization to call your own ( the assets & customers as well as the class action lawsuits).
Buy up the shares, keep it in bankruptcy as long as possible to avoid compliance issues and then discharge as much of the debts and liabilities as you can. While in bankruptcy negotiate indemnity for future incidents, get the bankruptcy judge to order an increase in rates to cover the infrastructure costs and prevent future claims. Once all the issues are ironed out you have a company that is worth 10x the acquisition cost albeit with more debt to cover the infrastructure repairs but a lot more revenue to cover the extra costs. Still a significant ROI for anyone with a spare $ 3 billion or so laying around and willing to invest 24 months in the effort.

Apple and Google are you listening? You guys have that in the petty cash fund drawing .5% interest. You also have the political count to make it happen and spin it into a rescue story.
So, "Powered by Google" would have a whole new meaning?

Maybe In & Out Burger can buy it and call it On & Off Power?
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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by raptor » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:12 pm

NT2C wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:36 pm

So, "Powered by Google" would have a whole new meaning?

Maybe In & Out Burger can buy it and call it On & Off Power?
:rofl:

I award 2 full internet points for these responses.

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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by NT2C » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:26 pm

raptor wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:12 pm
NT2C wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:36 pm

So, "Powered by Google" would have a whole new meaning?

Maybe In & Out Burger can buy it and call it On & Off Power?
:rofl:

I award 2 full internet points for these responses.

:clap:
Bob's Big Boy Charbroiled Power Co.

I heard N i k e was interested but after careful consideration they said, "Just screw it" and took a knee.
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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by raptor » Fri Oct 25, 2019 5:41 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:32 pm
It is a PR nightmare, no win situation from go. Let the state buy it and drive it into the ground. They will achieve Puerto Rico like power reliability in weeks.
Agreed at least for me.
Except that a 10x return in ~24 months is something that would make the PR nightmare worthwhile for some deep pocketed folks. Maybe not Apple or Google but perhaps for the key principals involved. They would likely use a fund like Cerberus for an indirect investment. That would dilute their upside and not diminish the risk but still with a 10x return on the table there is enough to go around. It would also make the political aspect of it easier to "arrange".

Where do you think Cerberus and other private equity firms get the cash to do things like buy Chrysler and take it private?

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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by absinthe beginner » Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:09 pm

California Faces "Biggest Blackout Ever" As 2.5 Million PG&E Customers May Have No Power For Days

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/califo ... power-days

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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by Stercutus » Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:14 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/25/us/s ... ornia.html

So it appears that PG&E equipment "malfunctioned" and caused another blaze.
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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by flybynight » Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:52 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:14 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/25/us/s ... ornia.html

So it appears that PG&E equipment "malfunctioned" and caused another blaze.
That link took me to a fire in Los Angeles. If that was the intent ( story blocked after two paragraphs ) Then no. PG & E is in Northern CA. Los Angeles area is SCE ( Southern California Edison Although they might be called something else now )
As of now I bet you got me wrong

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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by Stercutus » Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:34 pm

The BBC is trotting out the PAW lights out scenario.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2019 ... c-blackout


A video of the CEO talking about the Kinkade fire and equipment malf.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pgand ... vi-AAJki2M
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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Oct 26, 2019 5:45 pm

Generator companies are making bank off California's dysfunctional power grid situation.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/califo ... ny-soaring

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Re: Mass Blackouts in California

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:27 pm

New evacuations, power outages near California wildfire

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-e ... latestnews

California wildfires: Millions face blackouts and 50,000 evacuated as dozens of buildings destroyed by blazes across state

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 72046.html

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