Food Insecurity 2019

[absinthe beginner]

So I've been noting some rather alarmist headlines about various natural disasters and plant or animal diseases that cumulatively could have an adverse impact on global food production, potentially creating "food shocks" if prices of basic foodstuffs soar due to shortfalls or distribution issues. Thoughts?

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/foo ... rocketing/

Food Crisis 2019: An Outbreak Of African Swine Fever Is Devastating The Global Pig Population, And Pork Prices Are Skyrocketing

An absolutely devastating disease is wiping out herds of pigs all over Asia, and most people in the western world don’t even realize what is happening. Since it was first detected last August, there have been 116 officially reported outbreaks of African Swine Fever in China, and since that time it has rapidly spread to surrounding nations such as Cambodia and Vietnam. African Swine Fever is not harmful to humans, but the vast majority of the pigs that catch it end up dead. It spreads very quickly and there is no cure, and this outbreak has already driven global pork prices through the roof. If this crisis continues to escalate, we are potentially talking about a crippling blow to global food production.

China raises and consumes far more pigs than anyone else in the world, and it is also the epicenter of this crisis.

[absinthe beginner]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/21/us/flood ... index.html

The Midwest flooding has killed livestock, ruined harvests and has farmers worried for their future

(CNN)Farmers in parts of Nebraska and Iowa had precious little time to move themselves from the floodwaters that rushed over their lands last week, so many left their livestock and last year's harvest behind.

Now as they watch the new lakes that overtook their property slowly recede, some have a painfully long time to reflect: They lost so much, staying in business will be a mighty struggle.

Across parts of the Midwest, hundreds of livestock are drowned or stranded; valuable unsold, stored grain is ruined in submerged storage bins; and fields are like lakes, casting doubt on whether they can be planted this year.

[majorhavoc]

The solution to these and all food insecurity problems is simple.

[Stercutus]

They will be better off without the pork. Mortality in China and Vietnam is rapidly increasing due to cardiovascular disease. Vietnam now has a CV rate twice the planet average without a large enough medical system to keep up. This is likely evenly split between the increase of pork and alcohol consumption.

[absinthe beginner]

Stercutus said: Vietnam now has a CV rate twice the planet average without a large enough medical system to keep up. This is likely evenly split between the increase of pork and alcohol consumption.

Yes, but without copious pork and alcohol consumption, is life truly worth living?

[Stercutus]

Stercutus said: Vietnam now has a CV rate twice the planet average without a large enough medical system to keep up. This is likely evenly split between the increase of pork and alcohol consumption.

Yes, but without copious pork and alcohol consumption, is life truly worth living?

Not if I am any guide to a life worth living.

[absinthe beginner]

I drink very little these days, and rarely eat pork. But I enjoy red wine and pork chops.

[raptor]

I have been spending time in my Wyoming office and as result have been talking to some local ranchers as well as a couple of Nebraska ranchers.

They were all lamenting the higher winter mortality of their cattle herds this winter.

[absinthe beginner]

Farmers are pretty resilient people.

https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/qvy ... them-under

[Confucius]

I have been spending time in my Wyoming office and as result have been talking to some local ranchers as well as a couple of Nebraska ranchers.

They were all lamenting the higher winter mortality of their cattle herds this winter.

Yeah, was a hard winter for calving here in Montana too. Second coldest February on record for this part of Montana. Whole lot of calves born at -40...

[TacAir]

There is nothing quite like talking up "massive shortages" for just about anything to sell higher prices....

Works for the oil companies, why not farmers. I know some sections of the Midwest have been hit, some pretty hard, but not everyone had losses at the levels seen the Yellow Press.

I guess folks will have to cut back on fast food burgers - unless the soybean crops have failed as well.....

[absinthe beginner]

Uninsured Farmers Face Existential Crisis As Floods Destroy 100s Of Millions Of Dollars In Crops

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04- ... ns-dollars

Our ongoing trade war with China had greatly depressed prices for wheat, corn and soybeans, and so farmers were storing more crops on their farms than ever before in early 2019. And then the floods came. The water moved so fast that the vast majority of the farmers in the affected areas could not have moved what they had stored even if they wanted to, and the scale of the losses that these farmers have suffered is starting to become clearer.

[3cyl]

Self insurance can have drawbacks

[MPMalloy]

Self insurance can have drawbacks

Maybe.

[absinthe beginner]

ILLINOIS FARMERS HAVE “GIVEN UP” ON PLANTING

https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/ ... g_06182019

Farmers in Illinois whose land has been thrashed by flooding have given up on planting. Instead of growing food, they decided to throw a party. And who could blame them?

The storms that have caused major flooding in Illinois have forced farmers to give up on their crops. Forecasts for even more rain also sent corn futures to a 5-year-high, bringing the food crisis ever closer to reality. Few farmers will even see a benefit from the higher prices because they can’t even get their corn planted in the ground.

Dozens of corn farmers and those who sell them seed, chemicals, and equipment gathered on Thursday at the restaurant in Deer Grove, Illinois, after heavy rains caused unprecedented delays in planting this year and contributed to record floods across the central United States, according to a report by Reuters. Rather than focus on the abysmal farming year, they decided to party instead.

The storms have left millions of acres unseeded in the $51 billion U.S. corn market and put crops that were planted late at a greater risk for damage from severe weather during the growing season. Together, the problems heap more pain on a farm sector that has suffered from years of low crop prices and a U.S.-China trade war that is slowing agricultural exports.

[absinthe beginner]

America's corn belt farmers face uncertainty after rain … and more rain

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ets-prices

In his 32 years of farming, Steve Fourez says he’s almost never been so late planting corn and soybean crops on the 500 acres he farms in east-central Illinois.

Normally by the start of May he’s finished planting corn, and soybeans are seeded soon after. This year, Fourez said, he wrapped up planting on 6 June, as cold, grey and rainy weather kept him idle. Fourez’s experience is playing out across the corn belt, a deeply fertile agricultural region stretching roughly from Ohio to Nebraska.

Planting is so tardy that the US Department of Agriculture’s June 28 acreage report, an annual survey of what crops farmers planted this year, will take on heightened importance.

[absinthe beginner]

More doom porn from Michael Snyder.

Food Shortage Warnings Begin As Tropical Storm Barry Rips Through America's Heartland

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07- ... -heartland

[Stercutus]

More doom porn from Michael Snyder.

Food Shortage Warnings Begin As Tropical Storm Barry Rips Through America's Heartland

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07- ... -heartland

No shortage of canned veggies around here. The frozen ones are selling for about $1.25 a bag which is the normal summer garden season discount price with canned ones going for $.49 a can on average.

[Halfapint]

I have been looking for the article for a while and I cant find it again. It was an interesting read about crop diversification by states. The mid west is labeled the "bread basket but most of the states grow 3 crops, soybeans, corn, and wheat. My state came in 3rd for most diverse food produced, but we are known for apples and cherries. I don't think this is a food insecurity issue, it's a mono crop culture issue. Most of the corn they are growing is dent corn used for ethanol as a gas additive. Soybeans were already hurt with our largest buyer (China) buying from other countries due trade war.

I haven't seen prices go up any more than normal. Sweet corn is 2 for $1 which I about right for early summer, buy Aug they are usually around 5 for $1 here.

[absinthe beginner]

"We're Already Starting To Ration Our Corn" - Perfect Storm Could Send Spot Prices Higher

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08- ... ces-higher

[Stercutus]

Corn is a little high this year due to flooding. Nowhere near to the Armageddon days of 2012-14 when the government paying a fortune to grow over priced fuel.


https://www.macrotrends.net/2532/corn-p ... chart-data

[goofygurl]

More doom porn from Michael Snyder.

Food Shortage Warnings Begin As Tropical Storm Barry Rips Through America's Heartland

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07- ... -heartland

No shortage of canned veggies around here. The frozen ones are selling for about $1.25 a bag which is the normal summer garden season discount price with canned ones going for $.49 a can on average.

We have the same signs here. About an hour from Ft. Worth. Bread has gone up here at our local Dollar General (live in a small town and DG is my "go to" so I don't have to drive 20 minutes to get smaller things) from $0.85 to $1.25 a loaf in less than 4 weeks.

Said store normally gets a truck and restocks every Thursday. I started paying closer attention to their shelves right around the time that ZH article came out. They did not get a truck nor stock for 2.5 weeks. By the time they did, there was basically nothing in the vegetables, canned meats, water, bread or soda (oddly enough) aisles. Less than 3 cans of beans were left, less than 10 cans of corn (and no "regular" - all that was left was the no salt version), no green beans, pasta was low, sauces were low, etc.

The local grocery store (Mom and Pop out in the middle of nowhere so expensive) had the same issue when I went in there to check. Everything was faced forward to make the shelves look full, but there were huge empty spaces behind them on basically everything from canned veggies to pickles.

I'm curious as to what will happen at Walmart (where the signs are) on the 9th or 10th. "Lucky" for me, I get to take my girls for school supplies on the 10th so I'll be able to check.

[manacheck]

We knew back in May about Dollar General's plan for those upcoming price raises: https://www.syracuse.com/business/2019/ ... riffs.html

However, it's also the only place selling the limited edition Bacon Pringles, so the timing of that *might* help its sales even with the price spikes: https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/pr ... vors-promo

Thing is, once the tariffs eventually (we assume) change, I don't see the new prices going back down to pre-tariff prices again. And if one giant ups its prices, it gives leeway for all others to follow suit- even for things that don't require it out of necessity. Avocados are priced so high right now, but just seeing that high price in one type of produce has other types of produce ridiculously following suit for us, locally. It's zucchini season as we speak, but zucchini is four times the price of it being out of season in the town's main grocery store right now. It's a little bit insane.

They're saying that with all the fearmongering about the crops and such, it's sparking people to stockpile at the "worst possible time"... I figure if people are stockpiling what they need, that's probably a *good* thing, though I do understand that when food (or anything) is more scarce, NOT overdoing it with taking in more than what you need within a reasonable timeframe, is helpful to everyone else who might be up a creek if necessary things do run low (or run out) before next year's harvest.

I think most people, including some preppers, don't have a good grasp on how much they actually need of things. There's a lot of fear, and much that is exacerbated when it comes to not having arable land or the know-how to supplement your stores. Also, the learned ability for being as flexible as reasonable. Like to not panic if the stores are out of bread for a week, when you have 10 pounds of pasta sitting perfectly fine in your pantry waiting to be eaten up.

[goofygurl]

We knew back in May about Dollar General's plan for those upcoming price raises: https://www.syracuse.com/business/2019/ ... riffs.html

However, it's also the only place selling the limited edition Bacon Pringles, so the timing of that *might* help its sales even with the price spikes: https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/pr ... vors-promo

Thing is, once the tariffs eventually (we assume) change, I don't see the new prices going back down to pre-tariff prices again. And if one giant ups its prices, it gives leeway for all others to follow suit- even for things that don't require it out of necessity. Avocados are priced so high right now, but just seeing that high price in one type of produce has other types of produce ridiculously following suit for us, locally. It's zucchini season as we speak, but zucchini is four times the price of it being out of season in the town's main grocery store right now. It's a little bit insane.

They're saying that with all the fearmongering about the crops and such, it's sparking people to stockpile at the "worst possible time"... I figure if people are stockpiling what they need, that's probably a *good* thing, though I do understand that when food (or anything) is more scarce, NOT overdoing it with taking in more than what you need within a reasonable timeframe, is helpful to everyone else who might be up a creek if necessary things do run low (or run out) before next year's harvest.

I think most people, including some preppers, don't have a good grasp on how much they actually need of things. There's a lot of fear, and much that is exacerbated when it comes to not having arable land or the know-how to supplement your stores. Also, the learned ability for being as flexible as reasonable. Like to not panic if the stores are out of bread for a week, when you have 10 pounds of pasta sitting perfectly fine in your pantry waiting to be eaten up.

I was mainly commenting on the price jump for bread b/c I know that the concern for most people (not necessarily ya'll) has been both shortages and price increases. Here's another spike for you from a Brookshires owned store this morning: store brand butter at this store used to be $4.29#. It's $5.78# as of this morning.

As for us, there's no panic mode here - well unless you count my panic at forgetting to put up 3# of angus beef I got on clearance 2 days ago so it has to be done today or risk waste lol. You are correct about the not panicking issue. My husband and I were talking about that this morning. He relies mostly on skill - I think things need to be a balance of skill and stores. He's an OTR trucker, I'm at home. We will do it my way