Atlantic tropics....

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Atlantic tropics....

Post by Old_Man » Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:25 am

3 tropical storms plus 1 potential all lined up.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Florence is the one to watch at the moment. Broad possible strike zone from Cheasapeake to SC. This track keeps shifting west and south...but it is nature. Intensity models have it as high as a cat 4.
Florence track model
http://flhurricane.com/images/2018/clark6latest.png

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by woodsghost » Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:56 am

What kind of advice can I give to a non-prepper? I have a buddy who is in the strike zone. He is worried, but primarily worried about losing electricity and losing air conditioning. He is in Atlanta, Georgia and expecting heavy rain. I suggested he fill his gas tank, get 24 hours worth of snacks & food, a cell phone battery bank, and a flashlight and batteries. Anything else? He lives in an apartment and primarily eats fast food. I figure the rest is on the apartment manager?
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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by EBuff75 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:14 am

Water, and have some cash on hand. Power outage means no credit card systems... Hopefully he also has enough offline/unpowered activities to keep him occupied (games, books, etc.) for a few days if needed.

If he's worried about no a/c, then maybe a battery powered fan. There are some on Amazon which are pretty cheap and have decent run-times.

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by woodsghost » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:02 pm

EBuff75 wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:14 am
Water, and have some cash on hand. Power outage means no credit card systems... Hopefully he also has enough offline/unpowered activities to keep him occupied (games, books, etc.) for a few days if needed.

If he's worried about no a/c, then maybe a battery powered fan. There are some on Amazon which are pretty cheap and have decent run-times.
Excellent. Thank you!
*Remember: I'm just a guy on the internet :)
*Don't go to stupid places with stupid people & do stupid things.
*Be courteous. Look normal. Be in bed by 10'clock.

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by RickOShea » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:53 pm

woodsghost wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:02 pm
EBuff75 wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:14 am
Water, and have some cash on hand. Power outage means no credit card systems... Hopefully he also has enough offline/unpowered activities to keep him occupied (games, books, etc.) for a few days if needed.

If he's worried about no a/c, then maybe a battery powered fan. There are some on Amazon which are pretty cheap and have decent run-times.
Excellent. Thank you!
Fill the bath tub with water. On the off chance he loses water pressure, he can use a bucket to refill the toilet. Ice chest to keep some drinks and cold cuts cool. Maybe get a couple of those cheap LED lanterns or work lights, so he can have some handsfree illumination.:ooh:
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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by Old_Man » Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:10 pm


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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by none1 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:10 pm

woodsghost wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:56 am
I figure the rest is on the apartment manager?
NOTHING is on the apartment manager, EVERYTHING is on your friend. Apt management could bug out, and its just you.

As others have stated, cash, food, water, gas. Enough cash for food, gas, and hotel for say 3 days. I'd recommend an extra red jug full of gas. Food and water for 7 days. Gallon of water a day = 7 gallons, per person. CHIPS will give you calories and stay fresh for at least a week. :) (no I'm not advising just junk food, but for small time preps junk food can fill in the gaps). All this is stuff that's "zero addtional cost", that is, if no disaster, you still have the cash, you'll eventually drink the water and eat the chips, you can put the jug of gas in your car when you need it, etc.., you just brought stuff early you would have brought anyways. IF there's a disaster, you'll be happy you had it.


For some extra cost, home beginner prepping, walmart small propane grill will boil water, cook food, and make coffee. Some people really need coffee. :) EGGS keep well in the shell.

Advise to leave early and often. If there is an evacuation order, take it and go. Better yet, if there looks like there MIGHT be an evacuation order, leave early to avoid the 12 hour traffic jam.

Watch the news a lot, to know if and when to leave.

Flo might (MIGHT, its still 4 days out and forecasts aren't accurate) but it might stall right over the coast, similar to Harvey in TX last year, bringing massive flooding.

Right now, Atlanta looks like it will miss most of the worst, but, its still 4 days out.
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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by Old_Man » Sun Sep 09, 2018 5:08 pm

Looks like the Carolinas sometime Thursday. This could easily change... be on your toes people.

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by woodsghost » Sun Sep 09, 2018 5:27 pm

RickOShea wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:53 pm
woodsghost wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:02 pm


Excellent. Thank you!
Fill the bath tub with water. On the off chance he loses water pressure, he can use a bucket to refill the toilet. Ice chest to keep some drinks and cold cuts cool. Maybe get a couple of those cheap LED lanterns or work lights, so he can have some handsfree illumination.:ooh:
Thanks Rick O'! That and maybe a case of bottled water.
*Remember: I'm just a guy on the internet :)
*Don't go to stupid places with stupid people & do stupid things.
*Be courteous. Look normal. Be in bed by 10'clock.

“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” -Bilbo Baggins.

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by woodsghost » Sun Sep 09, 2018 5:32 pm

none1 wrote:
Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:10 pm
woodsghost wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:56 am
I figure the rest is on the apartment manager?
NOTHING is on the apartment manager, EVERYTHING is on your friend. Apt management could bug out, and its just you.

As others have stated, cash, food, water, gas. Enough cash for food, gas, and hotel for say 3 days. I'd recommend an extra red jug full of gas. Food and water for 7 days. Gallon of water a day = 7 gallons, per person. CHIPS will give you calories and stay fresh for at least a week. :) (no I'm not advising just junk food, but for small time preps junk food can fill in the gaps). All this is stuff that's "zero addtional cost", that is, if no disaster, you still have the cash, you'll eventually drink the water and eat the chips, you can put the jug of gas in your car when you need it, etc.., you just brought stuff early you would have brought anyways. IF there's a disaster, you'll be happy you had it.


For some extra cost, home beginner prepping, walmart small propane grill will boil water, cook food, and make coffee. Some people really need coffee. :) EGGS keep well in the shell.

Advise to leave early and often. If there is an evacuation order, take it and go. Better yet, if there looks like there MIGHT be an evacuation order, leave early to avoid the 12 hour traffic jam.

Watch the news a lot, to know if and when to leave.

Flo might (MIGHT, its still 4 days out and forecasts aren't accurate) but it might stall right over the coast, similar to Harvey in TX last year, bringing massive flooding.

Right now, Atlanta looks like it will miss most of the worst, but, its still 4 days out.
:ohdear: Well, I'll let him know. But I don't know how well it will be received. All we can do is lead a horse to water. And hope, as you said, that Atlanta avoids anything more than a heavy rain.

And as you said, an important prep is a good bank account and the ability to go to a hotel for a few days if evacuations are called for. Thank you.
*Remember: I'm just a guy on the internet :)
*Don't go to stupid places with stupid people & do stupid things.
*Be courteous. Look normal. Be in bed by 10'clock.

“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” -Bilbo Baggins.

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by raptor » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:28 pm

I have relatives who live in Atlanta and the hurricanes that historically blown through Atlanta typically are rain events that spawn tornadoes and cause power outages. Therefore he should keep those risk in mind.



Here are some links to threads that discuss hurricane preps.
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=98677
https://zombiehunters.org/forum/viewtop ... =6&t=79549

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by SouthernZombie » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:11 pm

I live in the Carolinas, in-land, not coastal. I lived in Raleigh through Hurricane Fran (two weeks without power and a tree through the 2nd floor of the house). I'm generally pretty well stocked (cash on hand, extra gas, months of food, weeks of water, water treatment etc.) However, despite the preps and being a member of this community, when a storm comes, I like to hit the store for extras.

I was at Wally World today and it was a nightmare. I'm a little over 100 miles from the coast and the line went through the entire store. Water, milk, flashlights, and bread were all wiped out. Fortunately I was just hunting for some garbage bags and 5 gallon buckets. I plan to fill both my bathtubs with water and stock a big cooler with extra ice/drinks and do the basics. I'll keep everyone posted as the thing progresses. I expect hurricane (Cat 1) or Tropical Storm force winds in my area and 6-12" of water. So I'll likely be without power for a few days but I have no real trees to worry about, more an inconvenience factor but we'll see.

I've been through lots of Hurricanes down here in the 90s and I was in New England for Sandy, so this has become my every 3-4 year ordeal. LED lanterns and a well charged Kindle are God sends. I highly advise others to get a simple $40 solar USB charging panel so you can charge a cell phone/tablet after the storm and one or two battery banks so you can charge during the storm if needed. I also have my emergency radios charged already with NOAA and other stations I like taped to them so I don't have to bother remembering what stations I like or might need.
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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by majorhavoc » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:43 am

SouthernZombie wrote:
Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:11 pm
I live in the Carolinas, in-land, not coastal. ...

I've been through lots of Hurricanes down here in the 90s and I was in New England for Sandy, so this has become my every 3-4 year ordeal.
...
I highly advise others to get a simple $40 solar USB charging panel so you can charge a cell phone/tablet after the storm and one or two battery banks so you can charge during the storm if needed.
Well, stay safe and to the extent you're able, feel free to post updates here. You'll have a highly interested audience. Sounds like you're well prepared. +1 on the USB solar panel. Mine has seen tons of use recharging cell phones during group camping trips. I also have a GoalZero Guide 10 to allow me to use the panel to keep AA and AAA LSD batteries charged. But in practice that panel does little except keep cell phones and small USB power banks topped up.

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by norcalprep » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:49 pm

I moved to the Raleigh area 2 years ago with my family. This all looks intimidating, but I have all my California earthquake preps with us, so hopefully we should be fine. Stay safe, everyone!

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by raptor » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:12 pm

norcalprep wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:49 pm
I moved to the Raleigh area 2 years ago with my family. This all looks intimidating, but I have all my California earthquake preps with us, so hopefully we should be fine. Stay safe, everyone!
Raleigh is immune to the wort part of a hurricane which is the storm surge. You should prep for an extended power outage, rain and possible localized flooding due to rain. Most of your earthquake preps should come in handy.
There are some good prep threads aggregated here:
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=83891

This one specifically deals with hurricane and power outage tips.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=98677


1. Turn the temperature on you refrigerator down to the lowest setting.
2. Freeze jugs of water in the freezer for both cooling and water. When the power goes out move the jugs in to the refrigerator compartment to keep it cool longer.
3. Do all of your laundry before the power goes out.
4. Fill up your bathtub with water it can be used for drinking or simply to flush the toilet.
5. If the power stays off more than 24 hours cook and consume the food in the freezer first.
6. Empty your ice maker and freeze the cubes this will allow you ice maker room for more ice

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by norcalprep » Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:36 pm

raptor wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:12 pm
norcalprep wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:49 pm
I moved to the Raleigh area 2 years ago with my family. This all looks intimidating, but I have all my California earthquake preps with us, so hopefully we should be fine. Stay safe, everyone!
Raleigh is immune to the wort part of a hurricane which is the storm surge. You should prep for an extended power outage, rain and possible localized flooding due to rain. Most of your earthquake preps should come in handy.
There are some good prep threads aggregated here:
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=83891

This one specifically deals with hurricane and power outage tips.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=98677


1. Turn the temperature on you refrigerator down to the lowest setting.
2. Freeze jugs of water in the freezer for both cooling and water. When the power goes out move the jugs in to the refrigerator compartment to keep it cool longer.
3. Do all of your laundry before the power goes out.
4. Fill up your bathtub with water it can be used for drinking or simply to flush the toilet.
5. If the power stays off more than 24 hours cook and consume the food in the freezer first.
6. Empty your ice maker and freeze the cubes this will allow you ice maker room for more ice
Thanks, raptor!

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by Stercutus » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:05 am

Florence is now CAT IV and looking to get her name retired. The media is now calling for unprecedented damage.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/ho ... -carolinas

Last time I went through Hatteras I was shocked by the amount of construction that had taken place in 20 years. When I was a kid there was practically no traffic from Nags Head South to Ocracoke. The last trip that little jaunt took nearly four hours.


I guess we will all be re-buying vacation homes for rich people again.
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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by MPMalloy » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:29 am

From FEMA, via an email.
FEMA Daily Operations Briefing for September 11, 2018

Significant Activity –Sep 10-11

Significant Events: Hurricane Florence; Hurricane Olivia; Super Typhoon Mangkhut

Tropical Activity:

Atlantic – Hurricane Florence (CAT 4); Tropical Storm Isaac; Hurricane Helene (CAT 2); Disturbance 1: Medium (60%); Disturbance 2: Medium (50%)
Eastern Pacific –Tropical Depression Paul; Disturbance 1: Low (20%)
Central Pacific – Tropical Storm Olivia
Western Pacific – Super Typhoon Mangkhut

Significant Weather:

Heavy rain with flash flooding possible – Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley
Critical/elevated fire weather – Central Great Basin to Central/Northern Rockies
Red Flag Warnings – CA, NV, UT, CO, WY & NE

Declaration Activity:

Emergency Declaration approved - South Carolina
Emergency Declaration approved - North Carolina
Emergency Declaration approved - Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands
Emergency Declaration request - Virginia
FEMA Daily Operations Briefing for September 11, 2018

The daily brief, in it's entirety (couple dozen pages), is a lot of info. :wink:

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by woodsghost » Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:09 am

MPMalloy wrote:
Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:29 am


The daily brief, in it's entirety (couple dozen pages), is a lot of info. :wink:
Thank goodness they were brief. Imagine what it would be if they were detailed.
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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by SouthernZombie » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:10 pm

Update #2

As I live in NC, the newest forecast has the storm crossing over me sometime Saturday(I'm inland). I have several six-gallon containers filled with water and plenty of food on hand. I've already taken a package of water bottles and frozen them in the freezer. I'll transfer these two a cooler sometime Saturday and add additional water bottles to the freezer when I do so. All my outdoor furniture is secured. I'll be charging everything tomorrow (Wednesday).

I went to Wally World today (I just moved into a new house so getting none storm stuff). One of the gas stations right by Wally World had a line of cars waiting to get to it and was being topped off by a gas truck. Wally World was out of water but area grocery stores have been receiving daily shipments which seem to be gone within a few hours. It seems inland water is still available but only in spurts. From this, I'm HIGHLY valuing the ease of my six and seven gallon water containers. I've been filling them at my leisure with tap water. I dont' have to worry about getting bottles at the store and as long as I have 30 minutes notice I can always make sure they're fresh.

I plan to fill a bathtub and my trash can with water in case I need it to flush but don't foresee that being as likely as losing power for a day or two. Power loss through Sunday/Monday is what I expect to be the biggest hurdle. One website already has all of NC listed as Catastrophic flooding potential. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... s/70006016 We'll see how it goes. Luckily my house is on a bit of an incline and I'm not near any rivers, creeks, or lakes for flooding concerns. Its been raining here all week already, so the ground is very saturated.

More to come!
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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by majorhavoc » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:35 am

SouthernZombie wrote:
Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:10 pm
Update #2
... Wally World was out of water but area grocery stores have been receiving daily shipments which seem to be gone within a few hours. It seems inland water is still available but only in spurts. From this, I'm HIGHLY valuing the ease of my six and seven gallon water containers. I've been filling them at my leisure with tap water. I dont' have to worry about getting bottles at the store
...
I plan to fill a bathtub and my trash can with water in case I need it to flush but don't foresee that being as likely as losing power for a day or two. Power loss through Sunday/Monday is what I expect to be the biggest hurdle.
...
Its been raining here all week already, so the ground is very saturated.

More to come!
Can't say I'm "enjoying" your updates SZ, because of course what you and your fellow North Carolinians are facing is no trivial matter. But I do appreciate these boots-on-the-ground reports from members prepping for and riding out major weather events. There's always a few nuggets of new learning for me, or launching points for discussion.

RE: stores running out of bottled water. It never ceases to amaze me how this catches so many off guard, or more to the point - prepackaged 16.9 fluid oz bottles seem to be the only way many folks can conceive of emergency water stores. Good on you having several multi gallon containers, and taking advantage of perfectly good tap water in the days leading up to the storm. In just a few weeks the average family of four could lay in a multi day emergency water supply using tap water, spent 2 liter soda bottles and maybe a few teaspoons of household bleach. All without spending a dime. This stuff isn't rocket science.

Re: Power loss more being likely than losing the water main. True, but FYI: We had a major rain event with very localized flooding up here in New England a couple of decades ago. One of the areas particularly hard hit just happened to be a road under which the main water pipes feeding Portland were located. It washed out and cut the city off from running water for two days. You'd have thought it was the apocalypse right then and there. Again, this was a highly localized event, not the wide spread weather system you're facing. Good idea filling the tub and your trashcan just in case ...

Re: already saturated ground. Uh oh ...

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by JayceSlayn » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:59 am

I'm in inland NC (Triad area) and I guess I'll post a couple updates to this thread as well.

I checked on all of my neighborhood yesterday, to see how they are doing, and hand out some preparation information/tips. It was mainly also as part of a CERT outreach kind of activity on my part. Maybe some will consider joining after this event. Most everyone I've talked to is already pretty squared away on preparations, and one had just moved up here from FL after living through Irma (thankfully we're not expecting anything like that here :shock:).

With the latest update of Florence starting to look like it will turn southward along the coast (NHC Advisory 52), it will delay the onset of heavy rains here by about half a day, but we'll end up getting more rain overall (being on the north side of the storm, and having it loiter over open water longer). The ground is also pretty wet around here already, so extra rain will definitely be causing heavy runoff. My house is above the local flood zones, but not the absolute highest point on this hill, and about a hundred yards of the road leading to my cul-de-sac slopes down towards my house (~2% grade). A pair of storm drains straddles my neighbor's house, so one runs along our shared fence line. We'll be watching to keep them from clogging, and also the base of the fences to make sure water keeps flowing out of the yard. The last half of our property drops down a forested hill to a seasonal creek about 20 feet below. If the water clears the fence, it will drain straight down the slope, and I'm reasonably certain that the heavy vegetation keeps the slope pretty stable, though the grade is steep (~40%). The closest approach of the drop to the house is about 25 feet though...

I've got plenty of food, cooking fuel, and other necessities, but I am slightly short of stored water compared to how much of a cushion I'd usually like to have (around 10 gallons stored ATM - approximately 4 days for my wife, myself, and our dog). We had a 20 L water container spring a leak a year ago and I never replaced it. :oops: I don't think we'll need it for this event, but it will probably rise on my shopping list again afterwards*. Of course, I have multiple water treatment methods, and one thing we won't be in short supply of will be water everywhere, so I plan on capturing some of the rain and treating it (in addition to the tubs etc.), if we lose water service at any point.

I took a stroll around Wally World yesterday afternoon as well, more out of morbid curiosity than necessity, and the water aisle was picked clean, and they were selling pallets of water as fast as they could fork them to the floor. One store associate mentioned that they'd cleared 84 cases of water in 5 minutes. Another one of the people I talked to in our neighborhood yesterday mentioned that the Home Depot was out of plywood and generators, because people had picked them up in big trucks to drive them to the coast. I'd also heard that many of the private companies, like Walmart, Home Depot, etc., have more agile supply chains and are superior to FEMA in relocating resources as needed for big events like this. That doesn't surprise me - they are making money still after all. I haven't heard yet whether the breweries and Pepsi bottling plant have switched over to water yet, but I suspect that will be coming shortly.

*Actually, there's a couple still left in a store in town - I may pick up a Scepter 20 L later this morning...
EDIT: Extra Scepter 20 L container acquired and filled. Good excuse to buy a nice new water container. :)
Last edited by JayceSlayn on Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:04 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by Old_Man » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:02 am

Some models now have landfall as far south as FL. The big issue seems to be that is slows down dramatically. This sets up flooding similar to Houston last year.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat ... #Post99416

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by Stercutus » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:03 am

Except Houston does not have gators. Could make for some interesting times for people that get in to the flood waters.
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