Hurricanes 2017

Stuff that’s happening in the world that may pertain to our survival. Please keep political debates off the forum.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by flybynight » Mon Sep 11, 2017 5:39 am

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

...IRMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 82.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning along
the Florida west coast south of Anclote River to Bonita Beach, along
the Florida east coast south of Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet,
and for Lake Okeechobee.

The Tropical Storm Warnings are discontinued for the Florida Keys,
Florida Bay, the Florida east coast south of Jupiter Inlet,
the Florida west coast south of Bonita Beach, and for the
Northwestern Bahamas.

The Storm Surge Warning is discontinued for the Florida Keys and
the Florida coast from North Miami Beach southward around the
Florida peninsula to Cape Sable.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* Cape Sable northward to the Ochlockonee River
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Fernandina Beach
* Anclote River to Indian Pass

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River
* South of Anclote River to Bonita Beach
* South of Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 82.6 West. Irma is moving toward
the north-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Irma will move near the northwestern coast of the Florida
Peninsula this morning, cross the eastern Florida Panhandle into
southern Georgia this afternoon, and move through southwestern
Georgia and eastern Alabama tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Irma is
expected to weaken to a tropical storm this morning and to a
tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon.

Irma has a very large wind field. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the west of the center, and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km).
The Mayport Naval Station near Jacksonville, Florida, recently
reported sustained winds of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a wind gust of 87
mph (141 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Sable to Captiva...2 to 4 ft
Captiva to Anna Maria Island...3 to 5 ft
North Miami Beach to Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...1 to 2
ft
Anna Maria Island to Clearwater, including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 t 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions should continue over portions of the
northern Florida peninsula for the next several hours. Tropical
storm conditions will continue across other portions of the central
and northern Florida peninsula, and spread into the eastern Florida
Panhandle and southern Georgia this morning. Tropical storm and
hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the
remainder of the warning areas through today.

Rainfall: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

The Florida Keys and southern Florida peninsula: additional 1 inch.

Central Florida peninsula: additional 1 to 3 inches.

Northern Florida peninsula and southern Georgia: additional 3 to 6
inches with storm total amounts of 8 to 15 inches.

Central Georgia, eastern Alabama and southern South Carolina: 3 to
inches, isolated 10 inches.

Central Florida Panhandle, western Alabama, northern Mississippi,
southern Tennessee, northern Georgia, northern South Carolina and
western North Carolina: 2 to 4 inches.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northeast Florida
and southeast portions of Georgia and South Carolina through
tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
As of now I bet you got me wrong

John Titor was right

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by absinthe beginner » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:02 am


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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by flybynight » Mon Sep 11, 2017 10:37 am

TROPICAL STORM IRMA

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

...IRMA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL PRODUCING SOME WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 82.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning is discontinued from south of the
Flagler/Volusia County line to Jupiter Inlet.

The Hurricane Warning from Sebastian Inlet to Fernandina Beach is
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Warning from Anclote River to Indian Pass is changed
to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Watch from north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
is discontinued.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River southward to the Flagler/Volusia County line
* Cape Sable northward to the Ochlockonee River
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Jupiter Inlet to the South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 82.9 West. Irma is
moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Irma will move near the northwestern coast of
the Florida Peninsula this morning, cross the eastern Florida
Panhandle into southern Georgia this afternoon, and move through
southwestern Georgia and eastern Alabama tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional slow weakening is forecast, and Irma
is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon.

Irma has a very large wind field. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the west of the center, and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Sable to Captiva...2 to 4 ft
Captiva to Anna Maria Island...3 to 5 ft
North Miami Beach to Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...1 to 2
ft
Anna Maria Island to Clearwater, including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 t 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
central and northern Florida peninsula, and are spreading into
southern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions should spread into the
eastern Florida Panhandle today. Tropical storm conditions are also
expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning
areas through today.

Rainfall: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:

The Florida Keys and southern Florida peninsula: additional 1 inch.

Central Florida peninsula: additional 1 to 3 inches.

Northern Florida peninsula and southern Georgia: additional 3 to 6
inches with storm total amounts of 8 to 15 inches.

Central Georgia, eastern Alabama and southern South Carolina: 3 to
inches, isolated 10 inches.

Central Florida Panhandle, western Alabama, northern Mississippi,
southern Tennessee, northern Georgia, northern South Carolina and
western North Carolina: 2 to 4 inches.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northeast Florida
and southeast portions of Georgia and South Carolina through
tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
As of now I bet you got me wrong

John Titor was right

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by absinthe beginner » Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:58 pm

Too often large-scale disaster response efforts are not the best use of resources or what those affected really need.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/hur ... 36876.html

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:05 pm

6 million now without power in Florida, per NPR.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by absinthe beginner » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:15 pm

Anarchy is nine missed meals away. Prep accordingly.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/worl ... artin.html

MARIGOT, St. Martin — At dawn, people began to gather, quietly planning for survival after Hurricane Irma.

They started with the grocery stores, scavenging what they needed for sustenance: water, crackers, fruit.

But by nightfall on Thursday, what had been a search for food took a more menacing turn, as groups of people, some of them armed, swooped in and took whatever of value was left: electronics, appliances and vehicles.

“All the food is gone now,” Jacques Charbonnier, a 63-year-old resident of St. Martin, said in an interview on Sunday. “People are fighting in the streets for what is left.”

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by TacAir » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:34 pm

absinthe beginner wrote:Too often large-scale disaster response efforts are not the best use of resources or what those affected really need.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/hur ... 36876.html
On another site, there was quite to discussion on the use of Zello.'

I had made this reply:

Another view on this --
(about Zello)
The advantage of de-centralized, ad hoc rescue efforts (successful for the most part) using a communication 'system' that is both malleable & nimble was very evident. These kinds of communication systems tend to be effective and have the ability to 'mutate' to meet current needs. In this case, for example, we saw Zello adding additional channels, on the fly, to accommodate specific groups and regions. In Houston we also saw 'swarms' of folks helping out, so success is/was - in part - due to the wealth of assets/workers in the area.
The Russian .mil types have a saying - Quantity has a quality all of its own....

And Yes, the initial rescue work did depend completely on a working cell system in the area. But it worked.

Compare the initial efforts to the standard FedGov/approved agency (think Red Cross) approach.
Theirs is a top-down, rules laden (hide bound as well) centralized 'control' from out of area players that have no skin in the game. Local knowledge tends to be very scarce, and what is "known" by the management level players is either badly out of date or just plain wrong.

Success with this communications and control 'system' is very dependent on flooding the area with resources to accomplish the effort through what is, in reality, a brute-force approach. It can work, but the lesson(s) of Katrina are, sadly, still to be learned by too many organizations - private and Public.

Many agencies, despite the flood of FedGov grant money, sadly - still can't communicate with each other. It is not worth bothering point out the vastly different rules, priorities, policies and all the other chaff that comes with this 'system'. It can work, in a lumbering, slow, crushing sort of way.

Where does the Amateur Service fit in this? I believe that to be area dependent - basically owning to the embedded resource base - typically of V/UHF repeater systems in the AO.

What can the average Amateur citizen take away from this?
It helps to belong to a local organization that has some kind of regular contact.
It helps to work with organizations (NGO or gov't) that would be players in a disaster.
Finally, it is worth the time to examine the event and make an effort to discover what worked - and what didn't, then make any changes to your gear etc as needed....
TacAir - I'd rather be a disappointed pessimist than a horrified optimist
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by absinthe beginner » Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:45 pm


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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by raptor » Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:58 pm

absinthe beginner wrote: Anarchy is nine missed meals away. Prep accordingly.
Updated version to this is:
Anarchy is nine missed meals away;
or one day without a charged cell phone.

absinthe beginner wrote: MARIGOT, St. Martin — At dawn, people began to gather, quietly planning for survival after Hurricane Irma.

They started with the grocery stores, scavenging what they needed for sustenance: water, crackers, fruit.

But by nightfall on Thursday, what had been a search for food took a more menacing turn, as groups of people, some of them armed, swooped in and took whatever of value was left: electronics, appliances and vehicles.

“All the food is gone now,” Jacques Charbonnier, a 63-year-old resident of St. Martin, said in an interview on Sunday. “People are fighting in the streets for what is left.”
Now here is the funny thing.
It is an island.
Everyone who lives there knows each other.
The miscreants are not leaving the island. They will still be there a year form now.
However, if it is like most of the Caribbean Islands...no one will have seen anyone do anything wrong and there will be multiple witnesses sticking up for the accused saying he did not do it.

That is why they are taking electronics so any video is not available. If in the "didnadoit" culture they fold when you pay video of them in the act. Been there, done that and got the video to prove it. :clownshoes:

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by flybynight » Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:18 pm

raptor wrote:
absinthe beginner wrote: Anarchy is nine missed meals away. Prep accordingly.
Updated version to this is:
Anarchy is nine missed meals away;
or one day without a charged cell phone.
And a belief that your own life choices are not your fault and entitle you to do wrong :twisted:
As of now I bet you got me wrong

John Titor was right

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:49 pm

flybynight wrote:
raptor wrote:
absinthe beginner wrote: Anarchy is nine missed meals away. Prep accordingly.
Updated version to this is:
Anarchy is nine missed meals away;
or one day without a charged cell phone.
And a belief that your own life choices are not your fault and entitle you to do wrong :twisted:
+ infinity............and beyond.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by JayceSlayn » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:04 pm

So Hurricane Jose is going to try to do a loop and come back around towards the east coast now?
Image

The modeling past 5 days seems to show it staying off the coast, but I guess it is still something to keep an eye one. Earlier this week it looked like it was just going to fly off into the ocean, but now it might come back still.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by raptor » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:50 pm

BTW the 1935 labor Day hurricane is the most intense hurricane to make landfall in the United States on record.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane

The interesting thing is that it took a similar path to Irma.



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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Stercutus » Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:55 pm

flybynight wrote:
raptor wrote:
absinthe beginner wrote: Anarchy is nine missed meals away. Prep accordingly.
Updated version to this is:
Anarchy is nine missed meals away;
or one day without a charged cell phone.
And a belief that your own life choices are not your fault and entitle you to do wrong :twisted:
Wait a second, you are saying that if I do dumb things I should have to deal with the negative repercussions? This seems very much like passive-aggressive triggering. Are you sure you are not a Fascist-Nazi-Racist?
These days of dust
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But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by TacAir » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:31 pm

Meanwhile, over at Tampa - someone stole the entire ocean....

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by flybynight » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:40 pm

TacAir wrote:Meanwhile, over at Tampa - someone stole the entire ocean....

Image
I've always wondered what it would look like without the water.
Huh, not what I imagined. Just wet sand and a bunch of idiots
As of now I bet you got me wrong

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by woodsghost » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:08 pm

TacAir wrote: Where does the Amateur Service fit in this? I believe that to be area dependent - basically owning to the embedded resource base - typically of V/UHF repeater systems in the AO.

What can the average Amateur citizen take away from this?
It helps to belong to a local organization that has some kind of regular contact.
It helps to work with organizations (NGO or gov't) that would be players in a disaster.
Finally, it is worth the time to examine the event and make an effort to discover what worked - and what didn't, then make any changes to your gear etc as needed....
I've been wondering a lot about this. I look forward to the communications lessons, as well as many others.

And honestly, I don't really know how to research the answers to this question. I can figure out gas, security, food, water, medicine, etc, but communications are one I have a harder time with.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Stercutus » Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:43 pm

TacAir wrote:Meanwhile, over at Tampa - someone stole the entire ocean....

Image
Did they look in Georgia? I think it may be there.
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by flybynight » Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:04 pm

Stercutus wrote:
TacAir wrote:Meanwhile, over at Tampa - someone stole the entire ocean....

Image
Did they look in Georgia? I think it may be there.
Kinda looks like they are just waiting for it to come rushing back in. You know, where they are standing
As of now I bet you got me wrong

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by NamelessStain » Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:51 am

I wasn't really impacted by Irma. Just some wind and rain.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Anianna » Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:13 pm

Did it come back in or did Irma suck it up and spit it inland?
Feed science, not zombies!

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by aikorob » Tue Sep 12, 2017 1:39 pm

Anianna wrote:Did it come back in or did Irma suck it up and spit it inland?
D. All of the above
I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they’ve always worked for me.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Stercutus » Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:37 pm

The King of the Netherlands popped in for a visit with the French PM at St Maarten.

Also unprepared grannies join the looting.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/st-martins-r ... 15231.html
These days of dust
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by RickOShea » Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:13 pm

Has anyone else ever tried the "beer water"? I can't remember which hurricane we were working, but we ended-up with some after the bottled stuff started to become scarce. All I can say is: yes, its water....yes, it tastes foul.




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