Hurricanes 2017

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by absinthe beginner » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:45 pm

Not for the first time, I must say I've been highly impressed by the caliber, intelligence, and altruism of the posters in here. The ZS forum can get a little snarky at times, but there are so many excellent posters freely offering up invaluable information and insights. Restores some of my battered faith in humanity.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:11 pm

From Wikipedia: The Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale:

Category 5
Sustained winds
≥ 70 m/s
≥ 137 kn
≥ 252 km/h
≥ 157 mph

Cataclysmic damage will occur

Category 5 is the highest category of the Saffir–Simpson scale. These storms cause complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings, and some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Collapse of many wide-span roofs and walls, especially those with no interior supports, is common. Very heavy and irreparable damage to many wood frame structures and total destruction to mobile/manufactured homes is prevalent. Only a few types of structures are capable of surviving intact, and only if located at least 3 to 5 miles (5 to 8 km) inland. They include office, condominium and apartment buildings and hotels that are of solid concrete or steel frame construction, public multi-story concrete parking garages, and residences that are made of either reinforced brick or concrete/cement block and have hipped roofs with slopes of no less than 35 degrees from horizontal and no overhangs of any kind, and if the windows are either made of hurricane-resistant safety glass or covered with shutters. Unless all of these requirements are met, the absolute destruction of a structure is certain.

The storm's flooding causes major damage to the lower floors of all structures near the shoreline, and many coastal structures can be completely flattened or washed away by the storm surge. Virtually all trees are uprooted or snapped and some may be debarked, isolating most affected communities. Massive evacuation of residential areas may be required if the hurricane threatens populated areas. Total and extremely long-lived power outages and water losses are to be expected, possibly for up to several months

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Stercutus
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Stercutus » Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:05 pm

Looks like Atlanta Speedway has also opened it's campground for free for refugees.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by raptor » Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:10 pm

The latest weather guess has the turn farther west than yesterday at this time. They still do not know where but this is the latest group of models.

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flybynight
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by flybynight » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:24 pm

Yea , early this morning when TWC resumed live coverage they were already indicating they believed it was going straight up through Florida. If that happens what will it do to the intensity? I know they start to break down when they make land fall . But what happens when the storm is still over the ocean on both sides? Common sense tells me it will lose wind velocity but keep drawing moisture from the ocean and dropping it on land in biblical proportions .But what do I know.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Stercutus » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:43 pm

raptor wrote:The latest weather guess has the turn farther west than yesterday at this time. They still do not know where but this is the latest group of models.
Those models on the left side are unacceptable. Have them run it through MATLAB again.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by RickOShea » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:55 pm

Stercutus wrote:Looks like Atlanta Speedway has also opened it's campground for free for refugees.
They're opening up our county coliseum for evacuees. Commisioner said they could shelter a couple thousand folks there. They built the thing in '08 to double as a hurricane shelter, but I believe this will be the first time it will serve that function.

Both of our church's mobile kitchens are already in Texas, and a couple truckloads of resupply just left yesterday.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Mountainsquid » Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:00 pm

SO's cousin who lives in Miami left Miami last night at 2200 and arrived at Fort Pierce a little before 0600 this morning(Thursday). Looking at the map, this wasn't a very fast pace. They had stopped so they could convoy further north with the in-laws, I have no idea how that turned out(I've been at work all day). Cousin was reporting widespread gasoline shortages.

I guess it's a good thing that people are taking this seriously, but if the flow of traffic doesn't improve by landfall, there are gonna be a lot of dead people on the road. Not good.

I am reminded of how before Rita made landfall my uncle took every Farm-to-Market backroad between Houston and Dallas to my grandparents house in Fort Worth, avoiding the state highways and Interstates. When he rolled in there were people who hadn't gotten past Conroe in the 6 hrs it took for him to get there.

There's a reason why me and the SO have 3 different printed routes to her (mother's) family property in Northern New Hampshire from our area. Everyone will gravitate to the Interstates and highways in an emergency, it's best to have alternatives planned out beforehand.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by absinthe beginner » Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:08 pm

The massive evacuation underway is going to be a wake-up call (one hopes) for the unfortunates caught up in this exodus. Numerous vehicles have already run out of gas, leaving their unprepared occupants to fend for themselves. I can only imagine what a true, nation-wide SHTF scenario would look like.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-0 ... ve-florida

How many people who sneered at those paranoid preppers - or who never gave the topic any thought - would now give their left nut for a well-thought-out bug-out bag?
Last edited by absinthe beginner on Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by flybynight » Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:13 pm

http://www.weather.gov/cae/irma

Columbia SC wind gust forecast map gif
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by JayceSlayn » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:04 pm

I've been following this thread the past few days (and the NHC, ensemble models etc.) and want to thank everyone for helping keep up the great situational awareness on this topic.

I am a recent (just this summer) transplant to the NC Triad area, and this will be my first hurricane season. We're pretty far inland here, and the models so far show that we'll probably only get TS-level wind remnants and a good dose of rain (up to about 5") in my area. My preps are fairly well situated already (even if the house isn't all the way set up yet - priorities, ya' know), and as long as the internet is up I'll probably be required to be working as usual.

Provided that I don't have any issues to attend to at my own house/neighborhood in the aftermath, I'd like to volunteer to help any place that might need it in the, let's say few hour's drive vicinity. I was a volunteer AEMT in UT before moving here (my certification is only valid there though), and I haven't had a chance to establish new contacts here yet. The question for the hive-mind is: What organizations (official, community-based, social media groups) should I be looking for? E.g. I heard from our forum that there was a FB group helping organize volunteer rescue efforts during Harvey - awesome job BTW.

I figure it is a little short-notice to try to link up with SAR or even CERT teams, though I'll try reaching out to them sometime later this year, hopefully. All the nearby ZS chapters appear to be in states of inactivity, but I figured I'd get better coverage on this thread than those sub-forums right now anyway. Any ZSers in the western/central NC area who need help or are planning an impromptu aid mission, let me know!
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by raptor » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:23 pm

Sorry I am not familar with Triad resources.

Contact the pastors/priest/rabbi at nearby churches and synagouges and ask them for suggestions.

You can also call the Salvation Army and local hospitals for suggestions.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Stercutus » Fri Sep 08, 2017 2:56 am

The state is reporting that every hotel room in Alabama South of Birmingham has been filled and Bham is filling up.
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by flybynight » Fri Sep 08, 2017 4:23 am

absinthe beginner wrote:Wow, this run of hurricanes is starting to get an End of Days feel to it.

.
HURRICANE KATIA about to make landfall on Sat. as Mexico is hit with a 8.0 earthquake and tsunami http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/08 ... orted.html
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Stercutus » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:26 am

Trafficapococlpyse on I95. No gas, cars stranded on the side of the road everywhere. Weather in the 90s during the day. No hotel rooms to stay in. Florida is one of the most population dense states in the country, without accounting for snowbirds. The population is all concentrated on the coasts, mostly the East Coast. Can't get away, can't go home....
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Stercutus » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:42 am

I see the most likely path has it going up the middle of Florida. While bad news for central Florida it will be less expensive then going up one of the coasts.

Also note that it might be a TS when it hits Atlanta.
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by NamelessStain » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:43 am

This is why I have enough extra fuel to fill up again. Common sense is that the first people out will consume the majority of the resources and those who follow... well.. fuqued.

This is why you have to get out BEFORE the panic, otherwise shelter in place.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by dogbane » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:53 am

I went to the grocery store for regular shopping last night. All the bottled water was gone. It was kind of hilarious. A guy and I stopped to talk about how a municipal water failure in our Piedmont city was among the most unlikely scenarios, and what people really needed was ice and tarps. He said that during Hugo, municipal water was only disrupted in one small area due to an uprooted tree pulling up a water line.

Anyway, it looks as if Charlotte is outside the cone of probability now. My brother-in-law, however, whom I just drove back home this past weekend after a month visit, is in the path now on the family farm in Tennessee. It may only be a TS when it reaches him, but I remember Opal's destruction.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by absinthe beginner » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:21 am

Latest update from the UK Telegraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09 ... hamas-hit/

Hurricane Irma will "devastate" the United States and knock out power in Florida for several days, an emergency response chief has warned, as the storm continued to tear a trail of devastation through the Caribbean.

The RAF has sent several aid planes to the region after the British territory of the Turks and Caicos Islands was "pummelled" by howling winds of up to 175mph and 20ft waves early on Friday.

Irma is now tracking a path down the coast of Cuba towards the Bahamas, where it is due to reach early on Saturday, before hitting southern Florida on Sunday. The official death toll from the worst ever Atlantic storm is 14, but is expected to rise.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by MPMalloy » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:57 am

From FEMA:

Hurricane IRMA (CAT 4) (Advisory #37A, as of 8:00 a.m. EDT)
• Located 450 miles SE of Miami, FL
• Moving WNW at 16 mph; turn NW expected late Saturday
• Maximum sustained winds 150 mph; some fluctuations in intensity likely next day or two, but forecast to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane
• Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles; tropical storm force winds extend 185 miles
• Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches and Warnings in effect

Hurricane JOSE (CAT 3) (Advisory #12A, as of 8:00 a.m. EDT)
• Located 480 miles ESE of northern Leeward Islands
• Moving WNW at 16 mph
• Maximum sustained winds 125 mph
• Some slight strengthening possible later today or tonight
• Hurricane force winds extend 35 miles; tropical storm force winds extend 115 miles

Hurricane KATIA (CAT 1) (Advisory #11A, as of 8:00 a.m. EDT)
• Located 140 miles NNE of Veracruz, Mexico
• Moving WSW at 3 mph; this general motion expected to continue until it makes landfall early Saturday
• Maximum sustained winds 90 mph; some additional strengthening forecast next day or so; could be near major hurricane strength at landfall
• Hurricane force winds extend 10 miles; tropical storm force winds extend 60 miles

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by absinthe beginner » Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:26 pm

Preaching to the choir, but still some useful insights.

https://survivalblog.com/letter-thought ... more-47018

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Mountainsquid » Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:28 pm

JayceSlayn wrote:. The question for the hive-mind is: What organizations (official, community-based, social media groups) should I be looking for? E.g. I heard from our forum that there was a FB group helping organize volunteer rescue efforts during Harvey - awesome job BTW.

Team Rubicon is always hurting for bodies. Despite the language saying it's a veterans organization, they accept non-vets for relief missions and training.

https://teamrubiconusa.org/

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Mountainsquid » Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:37 pm

SO's Aunt didn't leave New Smyrna beach on Wednesday, as I had thought. She stayed there to board up her house. She is right on the A1, the only thing separating her house from the ocean is a chest-high sand dune, and she's about a dozen lots north of Cape Canaveral National Sea Shore. The vehicle assembly building is visible from her house.

SO speaks to her aunt on a nearly daily basis(aunt has no kids and treats SO like shes her daughter). All week I've been saying "reminder her to make sure her gas tank is topped off" and I know that on Monday at least that was passed on. Guess what? As of last night she had less than half a tank of gas because she waited until the day she was going to leave(Friday) to look for gas. She only went out yesterday because she heard on the radio there were gas shortages.

Supposedly she'll be heading to Orlando to stay with her sister today. SO tried to impress upon her to check google maps first and don't just head over there on her known route, but given her complete unwillingness to follow even the simplest advice like "keep the gas tank topped off starting from a week out of landfall" I doubt she'll treat it seriously. JFC.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by designerchick » Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:50 pm

FYI, and I'm only posting this because I posted during Harvey, not for any kind of drama, I'm not with Texas Navy anymore. My goals for the future and theirs were beginning to diverge.

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