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PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2017 9:53 pm 
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Kim Jong-Un keeps flicking his little squirrel tail at Trump. Or maybe he's just celebrating our Independence?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/07/n ... 40660.html

North Korea launched a ballistic missile from its western region into the sea off its east coast on Tuesday, according to officials in South Korea and Japan.

The "unidentified ballistic missile" was fired from a site near Banghyon in North Pyongan province, the South's military said in a statement, and came down in the Sea of Japan.

Japanese officials say a ballistic missile fired from North Korea's western coast is believed to have landed in Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told reporters the missile flew for 40 minutes - an unusually long flight time.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 03, 2017 10:41 pm 
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An unexpectedly long flight time suggests an unusually steep powered ascent following by a very sharp ballistic reentry from the apogee. It could mean one of many things.
One of which would be a way of testing a missile's longer range capabilities without actually sending the missile that far down range.

Perhaps North Korea is thinking about targets several thousand miles east of Japan.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:01 am 
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North Korea claims it now has the capability to deploy ICBM missiles that could target Alaska.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-0 ... ach-alaska

There was something different - and symbolic - about last night's North Korean ballistic missile launch which not coincidentally took place on US Independence Day, because shortly after the event, North Korea announced it would have an important announcement to make. This time it did not disappoint, when the country declared that it had successfully tested its first intermediate-range intercontinental ballistic missile which flew for a record time/altitude for the rogue state, and is seen as a "watershed moment" in its push to develop a nuclear weapon capable of hitting the mainland United States.

North Korea, it said, was now "a full-fledged nuclear power that has been possessed of the most powerful inter-continental ballistic rocket capable of hitting any part of the world". The ICBM would enable the country to "put an end to the US nuclear war threat and blackmail" and defend the Korean peninsula, it added.

In a statement the North's Academy of Defence Science, which developed the missile, said it reached an altitude of 2,802 kilometres and flew 933 kilometres, calling it the "final gate to rounding off the state nuclear force".

There are still doubts whether the North can miniaturise a nuclear weapon sufficiently to fit it onto a missile nose cone, or if it has mastered the technology needed for it to survive the difficult re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere.


Last edited by absinthe beginner on Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:07 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:06 am 
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Asia Times: North Korea tests missile to put US mainland in range

http://www.atimes.com/article/north-kor ... 20-summit/

North Korea said on Tuesday it successfully test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which flew a trajectory that an expert said could allow a weapon to hit the U.S. state of Alaska.

The launch comes days before leaders from the Group of 20 nations are due to discuss steps to rein in Pyongyang’s weapons programs, which the North has pursued in defiance of UN Security Council and unilateral US and South Korean sanctions.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:01 am 
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Some good pics of the (claimed) ICBM.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ke-US.html


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 04, 2017 10:26 am 
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Largest "city" in the possible threat zone.

Nome, Alaska. In 2014 the population was estimated at 3,788, a rise from the 3,598 recorded in the 2010 Census. Nome was incorporated on April 9, 1901, and was once the most populous city in Alaska. Nome lies within the region of the Bering Straits Native Corporation.

I honestly more concerned about Iran - another 'rouge' Nation, one with lots of oil dough, and a proven connection to the Paki nuke program.

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:05 pm 
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"South Korea later said it and the United States early on Wednesday conducted an offensive ballistic missile drill aimed at striking the North's leadership."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-north ... SKBN19P2KD


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:16 am 
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Kim Jong-un says ICBM is 'gift' to 'American bastards' on Independence Day as US warns of 'new threat to world'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07 ... reas-icbm/


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:00 am 
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An analysis of potential military options and likely outcomes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/world/asia/north-korea-south-us-nuclear-war.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Nutshell: everything's complicated by the fact that there's no way to avoid massive casualties in and around Seoul.
Quote:
“You have this massive agglomeration of everything that is important in South Korea — government, business and the huge population — and all of it is in this gigantic megalopolis that starts 30 miles from the border and ends 70 miles from the border,” said Robert E. Kelly, a professor of political science at Pusan National University in South Korea. “In terms of national security, it’s just nuts.”


Layered on top of that is difficulty in predicting how NK would respond to even a limited pre-emptive military strike. Because there's no guarantee that the regime will behave as a "rational actor".
Quote:
The North has warned that it would immediately retaliate by launching nuclear missiles. But predicting how Mr. Kim would actually respond to a limited attack is an exercise in strategic game theory, with many analysts arguing that he would refrain from immediately going nuclear or using his stockpile of chemical and biological weapons to avoid provoking a nuclear response from the United States.

Assuming Mr. Kim is rational and his primary goal is the preservation of his regime, he would only turn to such weapons if he needed to repel a full-scale invasion or felt a nuclear attack or other attempt on his life was imminent, these analysts say.

But anticipating what the North might do with its conventional weapons in the opening hours and days after an American attack is like trying to describe a “very complex game of three-dimensional chess in terms of tic-tac-toe,” said Anthony H. Cordesman, a national security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.


And finally, particularly relevant from a prepper's standpoint, is the average South Korean civilian's relatively cavalier attitude about potential hostilities with its northern neighbor:
Quote:
The Seoul metropolitan government says there are nearly 3,300 bomb shelters in the city, enough to accommodate all 10 million of its residents. In Gyeonggi Province, which surrounds the capital like a doughnut, the provincial government counts about 3,700 shelters. Many train stations in the region double as shelters, and most large buildings have underground parking garages where people fleeing artillery attacks can seek cover.

But critics say that the local authorities are unprepared for the chaos an artillery attack would cause and that the public is nonchalant about the prospect of war.

The South Korean government conducts emergency drills only five times a year, and they are fairly desultory affairs that last about 20 minutes, with people hunkering in buildings or stopping in their cars on the roads after sirens go off. Many residents have no idea where their nearest shelter is.

Few people keep stockpiles of food and water, for example, and while the government has indicated it may buy about 1.8 million gas masks for use in the event of a chemical attack, that would not be nearly enough to protect the population.


“For the first 72 hours,” said Nam Kyung-pil, governor of Gyeonggi Province, “each individual will have to save their own lives or be prepared by themselves.”

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:13 am 
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Major Havoc notes: But critics say that the local authorities are unprepared for the chaos an artillery attack would cause and that the public is nonchalant about the prospect of war.


The South Korean stock market has gone UP in recent weeks, indicating a cavalier attitude toward the potential threat from the DPRK. I hope they don't get a rude awakening.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:24 am 
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absinthe beginner wrote:
The South Korean stock market has gone UP in recent weeks, indicating a cavalier attitude toward the potential threat from the DPRK. I hope they don't get a rude awakening.


I would love to hear from a ZS forum member who is a SK citizen. And I mean that in a totally non-judgmental way; I honestly want to understand their thoughts on this matter.

Because I feel like there's a cultural disconnect here about risk management. Consider how threatened Americans suddenly feel now that in 2017, Nome, AK is within theoretical range of a NK ICBM. Yet the average resident of Seoul has been living within easy range of conventional, chemical and biological attack for generations, and nuclear annihilation for over a decade. Is it fatalism? Faith (perhaps grounded in some reality that I just don't know about) that it'll never happen?

I don't get it.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:12 am 
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majorhavoc wrote:
absinthe beginner wrote:
The South Korean stock market has gone UP in recent weeks, indicating a cavalier attitude toward the potential threat from the DPRK. I hope they don't get a rude awakening.


I would love to hear from a ZS forum member who is a SK citizen. And I mean that in a totally non-judgmental way; I honestly want to understand their thoughts on this matter.

Because I feel like there's a cultural disconnect here about risk management. Consider how threatened Americans suddenly feel now that in 2017, Nome, AK is within theoretical range of a NK ICBM. Yet the average resident of Seoul has been living within easy range of conventional, chemical and biological attack for generations, and nuclear annihilation for over a decade. Is it fatalism? Faith (perhaps grounded in some reality that I just don't know about) that it'll never happen?

I don't get it.

Normalcy bias.
They aren't the only ones who suffer from it.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:13 pm 
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LowKey wrote:
majorhavoc wrote:
absinthe beginner wrote:
The South Korean stock market has gone UP in recent weeks, indicating a cavalier attitude toward the potential threat from the DPRK. I hope they don't get a rude awakening.


I would love to hear from a ZS forum member who is a SK citizen. And I mean that in a totally non-judgmental way; I honestly want to understand their thoughts on this matter.

Because I feel like there's a cultural disconnect here about risk management. Consider how threatened Americans suddenly feel now that in 2017, Nome, AK is within theoretical range of a NK ICBM. Yet the average resident of Seoul has been living within easy range of conventional, chemical and biological attack for generations, and nuclear annihilation for over a decade. Is it fatalism? Faith (perhaps grounded in some reality that I just don't know about) that it'll never happen?

I don't get it.

Normalcy bias.
They aren't the only ones who suffer from it.


There's an actual term for it dunno if it's normalcy bias or not, but it's when you live in a state for all or most of your life. You get to the point where what can I do? If they start lobbing arty at us I may live I may die.

I don't know any preppers that live or have family there. But I do have a lot of Korean friends and I've asked them what their family thinks about living within artillery range of the north. They basically say, they don't think about it. It comes up in conversation a few times a year usually around the time they do the drills but everyone that I know who has lived there or visits, says the same thing. If they start they expect their military and the American's to protect them and that some will die, but there's not a lot they can do about it.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 1:36 pm 
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absinthe beginner wrote:

The South Korean stock market has gone UP in recent weeks, indicating a cavalier attitude toward the potential threat from the DPRK. I hope they don't get a rude awakening.



If you think about it, this development means a rather high probability of the NK threat being dealt with in a rather decisive manner and the problem being "solved". That is one reason that SK market is up. The cloud of NK has a high probability of being blown away...pun intended.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 2:14 pm 
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absinthe beginner wrote:
Kim Jong-un says ICBM is 'gift' to 'American bastards' on Independence Day as US warns of 'new threat to world'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07 ... reas-icbm/


And I didn't get him anything. :oops:

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 2:54 pm 
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absinthe beginner wrote:
Kim Jong-un says ICBM is 'gift' to 'American bastards' on Independence Day as US warns of 'new threat to world'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07 ... reas-icbm/


Hey, I'll have Kim Jong-Uno know that my parents were married when I was born. :x

I'm only an American "bastard" in the figurative sense of the word. :lol:

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 3:10 pm 
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raptor wrote:
absinthe beginner wrote:

The South Korean stock market has gone UP in recent weeks, indicating a cavalier attitude toward the potential threat from the DPRK. I hope they don't get a rude awakening.



If you think about it, this development means a rather high probability of the NK threat being dealt with in a rather decisive manner and the problem being "solved". That is one reason that SK market is up. The cloud of NK has a high probability of being blown away...pun intended.

If, in consideration of all the other factors in play, China simply give the US a nod signifying that they'll stay out of this one it may end up being a bit...
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 6:03 pm 
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Impossible thread. Insists you break rules. There is no fight so precise as to harm the Korea in the north without harming the Korea in the south. So many Korean people.
The international community (oxymoron) allowed it.
Our plan is deterrence and it is MAD.
Allowed to be a nuclear nation without constraint, unification likely will continue to be top goal.
Confrontation would be closer than now.
Or, we could allow the slow absorption of southern Korea.
And a unified Korea becomes China.
(Note. With respect to time I consult my watch; others look to the calendar. Use century for planning purposes. Welcome to chess club. Our motto: "So Many Moves")

If a strike occurs, place yourself low to the ground and place feet toward blast.
Coves yourself from likely debris.
Carry a blade and a fire starter.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:47 pm 
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Maybe I am showing my age but what's the difference between how most Korean's feel now and how the West thought of the Soviet Union during the 2nd half of the cold war? We had a tense stand off with a belligerent enemy with clearly defined borders (the Berlin Wall). An enemy that could clearly destroy a very important and highly populated city (Berlin and also Bonn) and was quite capable of defeating our smaller forces stationed there, an enemy that possessed nuclear weapons and ICBMS, an enemy that placed military needs above those of their citizens. A government that had previously openly threatened to bury America (remember Khrushchev at the UN banging his shoe on the desk). Certainly, the Soviets were a much larger threat than North Korea. The West took precautions(even less so than the Soviets.... mostly) but really life went on as usual. I imagine that world governments are actually more concerned with North Korea selling their nuclear technology than with them actually possessing it. A nuclear weapon is for having not for using. There is no way in a nuclear war with both sides using everything they have would North Korea win. They know it and we know it. This is all about stopping regime change and blackmailing the global powers for trade or tribute depending on how you look at it.

That's just my opinion and I could be wrong.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:34 pm 
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Watched "Train to Busan" on Netflix the other night. GREAT South Korean-made zombie movie that shows how far the ROK has come in terms of development and infrastructure, not to mention being an edge-of-your-seat wild ride. Highly recommended. I can only imagine what a blitz of North Korean rockets and heavy artillery would do to an ultramodern city like Seoul.

"Train to Busan" trailer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyWuHv2-Abk


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:18 pm 
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Personally, I'm not too worried about a North Korean EMP - think that's a very low-probablilty scenario being touted by the usual doom-mongers trying to sell you gold or freeze-dried food - but in the spirit of doom porn, have a gander.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-0 ... ossibility


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:44 pm 
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The Twizzler wrote:
Maybe I am showing my age but what's the difference between how most Korean's feel now and how the West thought of the Soviet Union during the 2nd half of the cold war?

The leader of the current OPFOR isn't as sane as was the leader of the other OPFOR.
The leader of the other, previous, OPFOR could have been unseated by his own side far more easily than the diminutive warmonger we are faced with today. Russian "colds" seemed to be very bad news for their senior people.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:57 am 
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Trump considering "severe" response to North Korean missile launches. With Seoul a hostage to North Korean massed artillery and long-range rockets, it seems his range of options are rather limited.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/06/trump-sa ... ongly.html


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:20 am 
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Right on cue, predictable as the movement of the Zodiac....

https://dailyreckoning.com/jim-rickards ... rth-korea/


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