The Apocalypse is Well Under Way- Mass Extinction

[ghostface]

I think we have established some people disagree with the scientific consensus on Climate Change, so we wont explore that.

Right, this is exactly what they want. They don't want to accept reality, just throw tantrums, bring in political stuff irrelevant to the science, and make the topic radioactive on discussion boards. That way, moderators feel obligated to treat the issue as political instead of scientific, and the anti-science crowd wins by default.

Every time I check in to the forums, I see people spreading nonsense about the mainstream scientific perspective, calling the issue political etc. And when people push back or try to have a sensible thread on just scientific aspects of it, they get locked or the moderators threaten to lock them.

[Stercutus]

Well go ahead then.

Please show us all the evidence of how climate change has caused significant extinctions of species to date. Not like "maybe it will" or "threatened" or "at risk" due to climate change. Show us what percentage of species went extinct from climate change so far.

Because we are talking about an event that is taking place right now and has been occurring for some time. If climate change caused it than that would be big, amazing news that would startle the entire world scientific community.

Peer reviewed papers would be best. Lacking that you could throw another tantrum, your call.

I'll wait either way.

You will have a tough time of it though. The vast majority of the extinctions took place before the invention of the internal combustion engine. For the vast majority that have taken place since then you will have a difficult time finding any explicable link whatsoever. You may have to invent some new science on the way. Explaining how Bali Tigers and California Grizzlies went extinct due to much CO2 in the air is going to be hard even for East Anglia.

[ineffableone]

Please could everyone involved in the topic drift to C02 refrain from discussing it further as per OP's request and take it to PM.

I really tried to bring us back on topic, but....

Wow.

So much garbage in this thread.

Just for starters, when you start accusing the IPCC reports of being "political" and wrong and blah blah blah, while at the same time referring to them as "annual", you're just broadcasting how absolutely full of shit you are. The First Assessment Report was published in 1990. The Fifth AR was published in 2013. Sound "annual" to you?

The IPCC Assessment Reports are just syntheses of the existing scientific literature. When you say "the IPCC is wrong about X", you're saying that the scientific community was wrong about X. That can occasionally happen, but most people would probably happily take the odds of trusting science over pretty much any other form "knowledge", like personal anecdotes and ideological narratives.

So a 2014 paper that was published after the last IPCC report came out using remote sensing to infer the existence of populations of Adélie penguins what were previously not known about, and you think that means the IPCC was "wrong" for describing what the state of knowledge was in 2012? Seriously?

What a joke.

I think we have established some people disagree with the scientific consensus on Climate Change, so we wont explore that.

Right, this is exactly what they want. They don't want to accept reality, just throw tantrums, bring in political stuff irrelevant to the science, and make the topic radioactive on discussion boards. That way, moderators feel obligated to treat the issue as political instead of scientific, and the anti-science crowd wins by default.

Every time I check in to the forums, I see people spreading nonsense about the mainstream scientific perspective, calling the issue political etc. And when people push back or try to have a sensible thread on just scientific aspects of it, they get locked or the moderators threaten to lock them.

Well go ahead then.

Please show us all the evidence of how climate change has caused significant extinctions of species to date. Not like "maybe it will" or "threatened" or "at risk" due to climate change. Show us what percentage of species went extinct from climate change so far.

Because we are talking about an event that is taking place right now and has been occurring for some time. If climate change caused it than that would be big, amazing news that would startle the entire world scientific community.

Peer reviewed papers would be best. Lacking that you could throw another tantrum, your call.

I'll wait either way.

You will have a tough time of it though. The vast majority of the extinctions took place before the invention of the internal combustion engine. For the vast majority that have taken place since then you will have a difficult time finding any explicable link whatsoever. You may have to invent some new science on the way. Explaining how Bali Tigers and California Grizzlies went extinct due to much CO2 in the air is going to be hard even for East Anglia.

[Stercutus]

ineffableone - If he can show the mass extinction it is related to climate change then it would be on topic. Since he won't shut up about it he should at least present some kind of evidence instead of a bunch of nothing.

[ghostface]

Please show us all the evidence of how climate change has caused significant extinctions of species to date. Not like "maybe it will" or "threatened" or "at risk" due to climate change. Show us what percentage of species went extinct from climate change so far.

Where did I make that claim? Here's a clue: I didn't. That was a strawman brought to the thread by Supervisor42:

viewtopic.php?p=2590291#p2590291

i like how they just start off with "human-induced"; Like it's a given.
Well, it's global climate change from CO2 emissions! Any idiot can see that!

Is that clear enough? It wasn't a claim by me, by the authors of the paper, or the IPCC. It was a strawman claim from the denial side.

even for East Anglia.

Pssst. Your "I get my science from right wing political blogs" is showing.

If he can show the mass extinction it is related to climate change then it would be on topic. Since he won't shut up about it he should at least present some kind of evidence instead of a bunch of nothing.

What I did was object to people ranting about the IPCC as though they had one fucking clue about what it is, what it does, and what it says when they clearly don't. Is that clear enough?

Climate change, and specifically anthropogenic climate change is incredibly relevant to the issue of the Sixth Extinction going forward, as other papers written by the authors of this study have written and as they mention in their discussion:

Avoiding a true sixth mass extinction will require rapid, greatly intensified efforts to conserve already threatened species and to alleviate pressures on their populations—notably habitat loss, overexploitation for economic gain, and climate change (31–33). All of these are related to human population size and growth, which increases consumption (especially among the rich), and economic inequity (6). However, the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.

What they're saying is that we're poised to cause a mass extinction rivaling those of the Big Five if we don't do some things differently, including how we deal with the issue of anthropogenic climate change. They're not blaming all or even most of the present extinction on climate change, they're talking about how future climate change is one of the things that will make it even worse. Is that clear enough?

The amount of climate change humans have already caused is detectable and has had negative consequences. But what we're really worried about is not the relatively modest increase in radiative forcing we've already caused, it's the much larger perturbation of the system in a world of "business as usual" GHG emissions. The magnitude of change we've already caused isn't huge, but the rate is geologically unprecedented and this is even more the case when discussing unchecked emission scenarios.

Climate change, specifically climate change associated with large pulses of carbon from large igneous provinces, has been implicated in other mass extinctions, including several of the Big Five, including the worst one of all, the Permian-Triassic.

Climate change is relevant to the Sixth Extinction.

That doesn't mean I or the authors or the IPCC or mainstream science blamed anthropogenic climate change for the totality or even much of the current extinction event.

If you want to civilly discuss how climate change will act as a threat multiplier to exacerbate the other anthropogenic stressors which have caused most of the biodiversity loss so far, we can do that. If you want to civilly discuss how climate change can directly lead to biodiversity loss (particularly in the oceans), we can do that. If you want to talk about what the mainstream predictions of science are and are not, we can do that.

Ball's in your court. Hope that brings things suitably back on topic.

[Stercutus]

Where did I make that claim? Here's a clue: I didn't.

So you were making off topic posts on purpose. Got it, thanks. You could have just said that at the beginning of your post that you just wanted to take a dump in the thread and everyone would have understood straight away.

Climate change is relevant to the Sixth Extinction.

Because there is no proof of this whatsoever.

[ghostface]

So you were making off topic posts on purpose. Got it, thanks.

I was objecting to ignorant whinging about scientific organizations from people who don't know what they're talking about. Who started all the whining about climate change and the IPCC in this thread? It sure as hell wasn't me.

Because there is no proof of this whatsoever.

The authors of the very paper this thread is about plainly state otherwise in the Discussion section of this paper. There are plenty of other papers that discuss the way in which climate change will lead to extinctions in the future.

Science isn't about "proof", it's about evidence and models of reality as we best understand it. We have plenty of both when it comes to future extinctions resulting from unchecked anthropogenic warming. I am happy to discuss these things with people who can have adult conversations and don't get their "science" from blogs run by high school graduate conspiracy theorists.

[Stercutus]

They discuss it because there is no proof that climate change is causing extinctions. The causes of the extinction of the various species are (mostly) well know and in many cases well documented.

The causes are not climate change, neither directly nor indirectly.

I know you are having a tough time wrapping your mind around that concept but it does not change it from being true.

[JayceSlayn]

I would argue for the viewpoint that climate change is relevant to mass extinctions in general, and therefore would be relevant in such a case as discussing the so-called sixth mass-extinction event on Earth.

In general, any particular species can go extinct for a few basic reasons: it is killed directly by hunting/preying/disease/environment, or it is prevented from further reproduction by lack of food/habitat/mates or over-competition. So the reasons for an individual species going extinct can be attributed to any array of different causes.

As we mentioned earlier, some species will survive what others cannot, and some will thrive in the absence of others. However, a mass-extinction is classified by the loss of a great majority of the bio-diversity on the planet - usually in the realm of 70+ percent.

The loss of such a great fraction of life suggests that, whatever forces caused it to happen, acted nearly-globally on all species of life, leaving only a few survivors. This sort of effect is reserved for catastrophic changes in the way life is sustained on the planet. Several specific mechanisms have been implicated as crucial, if not deciding, factors for all the previous mass extinctions, and if you perhaps expand your view of what 'climate' is, then they have all been related to (or subsequently caused) dramatic climate change on Earth.

EDIT: I would add that the discussion of the causes of an on-going mass extinction are naturally a topic of inquiry. As in most cases, understanding the driving forces of a particular event is one way that we can understand how to cope with it and/or what to do about it (if anything). While I infer that the OP was intended to raise awareness of the issue, the next logical step in a forum dedicated to preparing for disaster (which a mass extinction definitely qualifies) would be to discuss how to deal with it. I don't like to rile the pot, but I'm just saying that I'm not surprised we strayed from discussing strictly the event itself or what to do about it, to what we variously think might be causing it.

EDIT 2: I am also amenable to the persuasion that strictly atmospheric climate change (C02, precipitation patterns, etc.) may not be responsible for the bulk of the most recent extinctions to-date, with perhaps any caused by de-glaciation to be the exceptions. I can see how habitat destruction by humans could be more directly at fault for most. 'Habitat' is not strictly the same thing as 'climate', but I believe the two are closely linked, as the geolocation of species is often restricted by the environment (habitat) suitable to them, one factor of which is climate.

[Mountainsquid]

Well go ahead then.

Please show us all the evidence of how climate change has caused significant extinctions of species to date. Not like "maybe it will" or "threatened" or "at risk" due to climate change. Show us what percentage of species went extinct from climate change so far.

This Rolling Stone article talks about much of the current ongoing mass extinction, and in fact talks about previous mass extinctions traced to climate change. Acidification of the Oceans is a real thing.

Bali Tigers and California Grizzlies went extinct due to much CO2 in the air is going to be hard even for East Anglia.

Oh boy, another guy who thinks that a handful of emails(out of thousands) of climate scientists acting like buttheads means there's a vast, climate scientist conspiracy to somehow get more money than if they worked for fossil fuel companies denying it.

[ineffableone]

Just a point about the climate and extinctions since the OP wants to know if there is a link to climate change and exinction. The 5 major extinctions all have climatic change as part of the cause for them. I say part because it was massive vulcanism, or asteroid impacts that caused the climactic changes that then caused the extinctions. But it was the climatic change that did the dirty work of killing mostly.

The 5 big extinction events all have dramatic changes in climate leading into the extinction events. The animals who went extinct failed to adapt to the change in the climate. It wasn't the volcanoes or impacts that killed the animals and plants. It was the effects these things had on the climate that killed the life.

So while at this point in the 6th mass extinction we might not be able to directly point at an animal and say "that animal has gone extinct because of man made Climate Change" it is quite easy to predict that the current climate change caused by humans will have just as massive an effect on extinction as previous climatic changes did. Most definitely a large amount of recent species extinction went extinct not due to direct climate causes but instead due to humans over hunting or destroying habitat. However future extinctions will likely start having more of a climate cause as the climate changes more and more dramatically. We are just at the leading edge of Climate Change, so early in the effects that people still doubt it is really happening. So yes too early to say species are dying due to it. But as mentioned when looking back at previous mass extinctions, they all have the same profile of massive climatic change that species were not able to adapt to fast enough. We should expect similar die offs during this Climate Change.

[Black Beard]

Just out of interest, how many of these 5 previous mass extinctions had species dying off because the climate got colder instead of warmer as predicted by current climate models?

[flybynight]

IMHO The dominance of mankind over the planet Earth will not be the cause of the next mas extinction. UNLESS.... it's by war. Since none of the previous events were caused by whatever species was dominant at the time , But by some cataclysmic natural event. I look at it this way. Either we progress past the point of laying waste to our fellow mankind and more than likely also progress from dangerous types of energy emissions. Or we kill ourselves off and the next Dominant species begins it's rise to dominance. ( Or we get hit by a giant space rock/ Radiation from nearby supernova/ Global volcanic activity/Zombies or space pirates.... PEW PEW PEW

[Doctorr Fabulous]

IMHO The dominance of mankind over the planet Earth will not be the cause of the next mas extinction. UNLESS.... it's by war. Since none of the previous events were caused by whatever species was dominant at the time , But by some cataclysmic natural event. I look at it this way. Either we progress past the point of laying waste to our fellow mankind and more than likely also progress from dangerous types of energy emissions. Or we kill ourselves off and the next Dominant species begins it's rise to dominance. ( Or we get hit by a giant space rock/ Radiation from nearby supernova/ Global volcanic activity/Zombies or space pirates.... PEW PEW PEW

AFAIK, We're the first species that's singularly caused a shift in the global climate. I could be wrong, though.

[flybynight]

IMHO The dominance of mankind over the planet Earth will not be the cause of the next mas extinction. UNLESS.... it's by war. Since none of the previous events were caused by whatever species was dominant at the time , But by some cataclysmic natural event. I look at it this way. Either we progress past the point of laying waste to our fellow mankind and more than likely also progress from dangerous types of energy emissions. Or we kill ourselves off and the next Dominant species begins it's rise to dominance. ( Or we get hit by a giant space rock/ Radiation from nearby supernova/ Global volcanic activity/Zombies or space pirates.... PEW PEW PEW

AFAIK, We're the first species that's singularly caused a shift in the global climate. I could be wrong, though.

Yep you could be...Here's a chilling thought.. It could be space pirate ZOMBIES..... snarl pew pew pew muaaaaa!

[ineffableone]

IMHO The dominance of mankind over the planet Earth will not be the cause of the next mas extinction. UNLESS.... it's by war. Since none of the previous events were caused by whatever species was dominant at the time , But by some cataclysmic natural event. I look at it this way. Either we progress past the point of laying waste to our fellow mankind and more than likely also progress from dangerous types of energy emissions. Or we kill ourselves off and the next Dominant species begins it's rise to dominance. ( Or we get hit by a giant space rock/ Radiation from nearby supernova/ Global volcanic activity/Zombies or space pirates.... PEW PEW PEW

AFAIK, We're the first species that's singularly caused a shift in the global climate. I could be wrong, though.

Well there was the Great Oxygenation Event (GOE) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Oxygenation_Event which seriously altered the planet's climate when Cyanobacteria introduced vast amounts of oxygen. If I remember correctly this mass extinction is also the source of oil and coal. So in a way they are causing more extinction once again by us burning them.

[Doctorr Fabulous]

IMHO The dominance of mankind over the planet Earth will not be the cause of the next mas extinction. UNLESS.... it's by war. Since none of the previous events were caused by whatever species was dominant at the time , But by some cataclysmic natural event. I look at it this way. Either we progress past the point of laying waste to our fellow mankind and more than likely also progress from dangerous types of energy emissions. Or we kill ourselves off and the next Dominant species begins it's rise to dominance. ( Or we get hit by a giant space rock/ Radiation from nearby supernova/ Global volcanic activity/Zombies or space pirates.... PEW PEW PEW

AFAIK, We're the first species that's singularly caused a shift in the global climate. I could be wrong, though.

Well there was the Great Oxygenation Event (GOE) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Oxygenation_Event which seriously altered the planet's climate when Cyanobacteria introduced vast amounts of oxygen. If I remember correctly this mass extinction is also the source of oil and coal. So in a way they are causing more extinction once again by us burning them.

Technically not a single species, which is why I didn't include it, but human influence is also due to our effects on other species, so if we're going to pick nits it's all a wash.

Pedantry aside, the GOE should be taught alongside other boom-bust extinctions as a cautionary tale. A species can thrive, multiply explosively, but if it's eating resources, overcrowding, and generally destroying the environment its offspring requires in order to support the current generation, it is doomed to be replaced. Whether it's replaced by oxygen-eating bacteria with more complex structures or archaea scraping out an existence on what's left of the planet depends on what the damage is and how bad it is.

Cyanobacteria don't have the ability to self-limit their reproduction and environmental drain. Time will tell if people do.

[MacAttack]

I do not believe a single iota in human induced climate change. I am just not so self centered as to think we have that much uncontrolled power. We are controlling our emissions, At least in the western nations. Go over to the other ones who are still polluting in huge uncontrolled ways.

And personally I do not care about single species extinction. One species goes away, another fills its place. Its evolution and natures way.


We have lost far more species from none native species invasions than from climate change.
Hogs, cats dogs and rats for a few have destroyed hundreds if not thousands. Now we have exotic snakes and lizards in the southern US states. Add in the Chinese carp and the nutria. The Zebra mussel in the Great Lakes.
And don't forget the oldest invaders who have made the greatest environmental change in North America. The nightcrawler. Look it up.

And none of these have anything to do with the climate.


Learn were the real battle is and its NOT in the so called .002 rise in temperature over the last 100years. Which actually went back down over the last 15 years.
Hell that small a change is NOT accurately measurable over the whole Earth and to then attribute it to people is nothing but self centered guilt.

[the_alias]

And personally I do not care about single species extinction. One species goes away, another fills its place. Its evolution and natures way.
We have lost far more species from none native species invasions than from climate change.
Hogs, cats dogs and rats for a few have destroyed hundreds if not thousands. Now we have exotic snakes and lizards in the southern US states. Add in the Chinese carp and the nutria. The Zebra mussel in the Great Lakes.
And don't forget the oldest invaders who have made the greatest environmental change in North America. The nightcrawler. Look it up.

It drives me up the wall that people want to complain about global warming hurting some polar bears while their cats are decimating native bird populations.

[grumpyviking]

species are dying not because of climate change but because of man, we are taking over and altering the natural environment, for example chopping down the rain forest for timber, or agriculture or to grow palm oil.

[flybynight]

So re reading the descriptions for the previous mass extinctions, All but two of them, the best consensus is that they took hundreds of thousands to millions of years to occur. The two exceptions are the K T which took out the dinosaurs and most of other life almost instantly (Hours to days ) and the T J event. Which is thought to have taken less than ten thousand years. All but one are mostly thought to have had a sudden precursor event such as bolide impact, massive volcanism or release of large methane gas events. How then is the current global warming in the same league as previous Mass extinctions ? The others were all caused by dramatic sudden events and still in most cases took longer to finish than Man has been on this planet.