Ukraine unrest

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Maeklos » Thu Feb 26, 2015 9:54 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-georgi ... ons-2015-2
Russia is moving ahead with the "creeping annexation" of two breakaway Georgian regions as part of an aggressive strategy to broaden its influence in the region, Georgia's foreign minister said on Thursday.

In talks with EU and NATO officials in Brussels this week, Tamar Beruchashvili said she had underlined Georgia's concern about agreements Moscow has signed deepening integration with the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Politics is like having two handfuls of shit - one that smells bad and one that looks bad - and having to decide which one to put in your mouth.

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Maeklos » Fri Feb 27, 2015 2:43 pm

More on the spreading ramifications of the Ukrainian crisis:

http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-crisis-pr ... ector.html

Looks like Germany is following in Poland's footsteps and looking to reorganize and expand its laughably-equipped military. (I mean, seriously. Having to share heavy and support weapon systems and armored vehicles across multiple units? Really, Germany?)
Politics is like having two handfuls of shit - one that smells bad and one that looks bad - and having to decide which one to put in your mouth.

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Rev » Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:47 pm

Maeklos wrote:More on the spreading ramifications of the Ukrainian crisis:

http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-crisis-pr ... ector.html

Looks like Germany is following in Poland's footsteps and looking to reorganize and expand its laughably-equipped military. (I mean, seriously. Having to share heavy and support weapon systems and armored vehicles across multiple units? Really, Germany?)
Germany is very frugal. On top of that they haven't seen a real need for anything but peacekeeping and their not so great history, it's not surprising a lot of that stuff was not of high priority.
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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Maeklos » Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:55 pm

Rev wrote: Germany is very frugal. On top of that they haven't seen a real need for anything but peacekeeping and their not so great history, it's not surprising a lot of that stuff was not of high priority.
Except for the fact that Germany (or West Germany, depending on the era) has always been a lynchpin country of NATO. Having a drawdown in the military during peaceful and hard economic times makes sense; saying that you've got five divisions (for example) of troops who are combat ready when they're actually having to share three divisions' worth of equipment doesn't make sense. Have three fully-equipped divisions - not five trying to fight over gear. That just creates all kinds of logistical nightmares.
Politics is like having two handfuls of shit - one that smells bad and one that looks bad - and having to decide which one to put in your mouth.

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Kommander » Fri Feb 27, 2015 5:57 pm

Think about it this way. Would the US be willing to risk nuclear war with Russia over ensuring the sovereignty of said countries? If the anwser is no then said countries will have to look to their own defense, NATO will collapse and we get to go back to the pre WWI mess of alliances, except this time everyone will have nukes. These countries trusted the US to be their nuclear deterrent and once that goes they will have to create a deterrent of their own.
Why must all the hoops be on fire?

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Rev » Fri Feb 27, 2015 6:05 pm

Kommander wrote:Think about it this way. Would the US be willing to risk nuclear war with Russia over ensuring the sovereignty of said countries? If the anwser is no then said countries will have to look to their own defense, NATO will collapse and we get to go back to the pre WWI mess of alliances, except this time everyone will have nukes. These countries trusted the US to be their nuclear deterrent and once that goes they will have to create a deterrent of their own.
France and Britain have nuclear arsenals.
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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Maeklos » Fri Feb 27, 2015 6:06 pm

The problem with that assessment is that the UK and France, at least, are nuclear powers, and they have a vested interest in maintaining the integrity of continental Europe. And if it winds up that Russia, the UK, and France wind up popping off nukes, China and the US will almost necessarily be forced to enter in to stop things at that point, since any sort of large-scale (or even limited-scale) nuclear engagement has long-term ramifications for the world at large. For China especially, given prevailing wind patterns and such.
Politics is like having two handfuls of shit - one that smells bad and one that looks bad - and having to decide which one to put in your mouth.

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Maeklos » Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:25 pm

Sweden and Denmark have signed a mutual defense pact, with Sweden and Finland having signed a previous pact just days ago. This is pretty important, as the Finns have been a focus of Russia's aggression often enough in the past. With Poland and Germany going under rapid overhauls of their military and the Nordic nations re-establishing traditional defensive treaties, it looks like Europe is taking the threat of Russian aggression very seriously.

http://www.ibtimes.com/sweden-signs-def ... ia-1834776

There was some mention made a few days ago by one of Russia's generals that the dead-man system controlling their nuclear assets is still alive and kicking, and that they would be ready and able to immediately respond to any nuclear attack without hesitation. This is worrisome on a number of levels, the chief of which I can see being that the nuclear powers most likely to strike against Russia would be the UK or France in order to head-off any large-scale overt invasions. But, 90% of Russia's nukes are probably still pointing at the US. So that's basically pointing a gun at us here in the States with Russia saying, "Keep your friends back or we'll shoot you."

That's essentially guaranteeing that if the fecal matter hits the fan, there will be no US neutrality. We'll have to act - if for no other reason than that Russia's nukes guarantee a retaliation against us in the event of *any* nuclear strike.
Politics is like having two handfuls of shit - one that smells bad and one that looks bad - and having to decide which one to put in your mouth.

"If the Russian flag were accurate, it would depict half a cabbage, a bottle of vodka, and a cold man dying for the Motherland."

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Maeklos » Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:59 pm

http://news.yahoo.com/u-europe-weighing ... iness.html

You'd think that with more than a hundred violations of a month-old ceasefire, there'd be more than just talk going on.
Politics is like having two handfuls of shit - one that smells bad and one that looks bad - and having to decide which one to put in your mouth.

"If the Russian flag were accurate, it would depict half a cabbage, a bottle of vodka, and a cold man dying for the Motherland."

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Maeklos » Wed Mar 04, 2015 4:55 pm

US sending more troops to the Baltic countries to help bring their militaries up to modern warfare standards in an effort to head off Russian aggression.

http://www.ibtimes.com/face-russian-agg ... rn-1835984

EDIT: Tally on number of Russian troops in Ukraine finally given: more than 12,000, with another 50,000 stationed just across the border and 29,000 stationed in the Crimean territories that Russia annexed from Ukraine last year.

http://news.yahoo.com/12-000-russian-so ... 31785.html

Further EDIT: The word "invasion" finally gets used by a US official in regards to Russia's actions.

http://thehill.com/policy/defense/polic ... n-invasion
Politics is like having two handfuls of shit - one that smells bad and one that looks bad - and having to decide which one to put in your mouth.

"If the Russian flag were accurate, it would depict half a cabbage, a bottle of vodka, and a cold man dying for the Motherland."

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by absinthe beginner » Fri Mar 06, 2015 8:08 am

Russia's economy is feeling the pain of sanctions and low oil prices. Historically, though, Russians have shown tremendous stoicism and endurance in dealing with national crises. Of course, if they end up defaulting on their loans to western banks, it's going to be a shock to the global financial system.

http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-is ... ies-2015-3

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed three new decrees into law that will slash government salaries — including his own and that of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev — by 10% from 1 May.

The government has also announced plans to cut the total number of government officials by between 5-20%.

The measures are part of the government's emergency plan to address collapsing revenues due to the fall in global oil prices and economic sanctions imposed on the country. Crude oil is currently trading around $60 a barrel but the federal budget was based on oil prices of $100 a barrel, leaving a big black hole in the state's finances that needs to be plugged.

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Maeklos » Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:26 am

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-dea ... 00275.html

Article contains reports of growing unease in Russia about the situation with Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine, as well as links to Russian media outlets dealing with interviews of parents of dead Russian soldiers and Russian soldiers themselves, all who were killed/wounded in Ukraine.
Politics is like having two handfuls of shit - one that smells bad and one that looks bad - and having to decide which one to put in your mouth.

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Dabster » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:50 pm

I couldn't find the Russian Saber Rattling thread. We had one didn't we? Is this an appropriate place to leave this..?

Kremlin posts images of Vladimir Putin after health rumors swirl

http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/13/world/rus ... index.html

Is Vladie..?
A. In Ukraine shootin' & lootin'?
B. Home with a cold?
C. In a cell?
D. Down & headed out with chronic halitosis?
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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Thorne » Sat Mar 14, 2015 11:28 am

He was abducted by Aliens.. There is Video...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nq54_izN4Bo
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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by boomas » Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:58 pm

Dabster wrote:I couldn't find the Russian Saber Rattling thread. We had one didn't we? Is this an appropriate place to leave this..?

http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/13/world/rus ... index.html

Is Vladie..?
A. In Ukraine shootin' & lootin'?
B. Home with a cold?
C. In a cell?
D. Down & headed out with chronic halitosis?
The video from cnn page is being commented by russian bloggers as an old one. Conspiracy hat ON - military helicopters flying in and out of Kremlin \ Liubanka (KGB headquarters) all day, opposition websites being not accessible, yesterday cargo trucks convoy going from and to Kremlin and now former Georgia president has just reported on his vk.com account that tanks and APC are in Red Square (Kremlin) (photos included) - conspiracy hat OFF. This info mainly from russian social sites or blogs, so no hard facts (like BBC), but if tanks and APC are in Red Square it is not so hard to confirm this.

And one more thing - in russia media a subtle change has been noticed in the last days. From the "fascist chunta from Kiev" \ "Banderovci" \ "Nazis" to "Ukraine army" \ "Ukraine soldiers". You may think that it's nothing, but as in a good ol' USSR times - you have to read between the lines.

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Boondock » Sat Mar 14, 2015 6:45 pm

Dabster wrote:I couldn't find the Russian Saber Rattling thread.
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=114798

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by sheddi » Sun Mar 15, 2015 8:03 am

boomas wrote:And one more thing - in russia media a subtle change has been noticed in the last days. From the "fascist chunta from Kiev" \ "Banderovci" \ "Nazis" to "Ukraine army" \ "Ukraine soldiers". You may think that it's nothing, but as in a good ol' USSR times - you have to read between the lines.
That is a very interesting observation and one that I had missed, thank you.
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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by sheddi » Sat Apr 18, 2015 2:50 pm

With the Ukrainian unrest being a year old, there is time for reflection on what aspects of Russia's actions have worked and what haven't.

Here's a thoughtful article that's too long to reasonably quote in its entirety:

‘Hybrid War’ and ‘Little Green Men’: How It Works, and How It Doesn’t
http://www.e-ir.info/2015/04/16/hybrid- ... -it-doesnt

Here is the opening paragraph.
When Russian special forces seized Crimea at the end of February 2014, without their insignia, but with the latest military kit, it seemed as the start of a new era of warfare. Certainly, the conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated that Moscow, in a bid to square its regional ambitions with its sharply limited resources, has assiduously and effectively developed a new style of ‘guerrilla geopolitics’ which leverages its capacity for misdirection, bluff, intelligence operations, and targeted violence to maximise its opportunities. However, it is too soon to declare that this represents some transformative novelty, because Moscow’s Ukrainian adventures have not only demonstrated the power of such ‘hybrid’ or ‘non-linear’ ways of warfare, but also their distinct limitations.
Much more at the link.
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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by sheddi » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:25 pm

Some interesting drone footage from the Ukrainian front lines.

https://t.co/7o04nWkjQ9
(Sorry for the t.co link, it's a struggle to get final the YouTube address on my tablet.)

I'm no expert but the video's originators seem pretty clued up on their armored vehicle identification!
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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Neptune Glory » Sat Jun 06, 2015 7:26 am

From the St. Louis Post Dispatch, Friday, 06.05.2015:
U.S. weighs deploying missiles in Europe as counter to Russia
Associated Press

President Barack Obama's administration is weighing a range of aggressive responses to Russia's alleged violation of a Cold War-era nuclear treaty, including deploying land-based missles in Europe that could pre-emptively destroy the Russian weapons.

This "counterforce" option is among possibilities the administration is considering as it reviews its entire policy toward Russia in light of Moscow's military intervention in Ukraine, its annexation of Crimea and other actions the U.S. deems confrontational in Europe and beyond.

The options go so far as one implied -- but not stated explicitly -- that would improve the ability of U.S. nuclear weapons to destroy military targets on Russian territory.

It all has a certain Cold War ring, even if the White House ultimately decides to continue tolerating Russia's alleged flight-testing of a ground-launched cruise missle with a range prohibited by the treaty.

Russia denies violating the treaty and has, in turn, claimed violations by the United States in erecting missle defenses.

It is unclear whether Russia has actually deployed the suspect missle or whether Washington would make any military move if the Russians stopped short of deployment. For now, administration officials say the prefer to continue trying to talk Moscow into treaty compliance.

The standoff speaks volumes about the depths to which U.S.-Russia relations have fallen. And that poses problems not only for the Obama administration but also for the NATO alliance, whose members in eastern Europe are especially leery of allowing Russian provocations to go unanswered.

Western leaders are meeting Sunday and Monday for a G-7 summit -- from which Russian President Vladimir Putin has been excluded -- where Russian aggression will be a key topic.

(etc and so on)
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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by boomas » Mon Sep 14, 2015 2:41 am

Although I have not posted here for a long time, I am still interested in this topic and update my info daily. If anyone needs some info, just ask here or send pm.

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by aikorob » Mon Sep 14, 2015 4:39 am

I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they’ve always worked for me.

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Neptune Glory » Mon Sep 14, 2015 11:39 am

boomas wrote:Although I have not posted here for a long time, I am still interested in this topic and update my info daily. If anyone needs some info, just ask here or send pm.
Yes please, would love to keep current.
"When it comes to justifiable use of deadly force, you should seek to avoid confrontation, unless you have no choice and your life is on the line. This is easier to say than to do because it requires that you be calm and peace-loving throughout your life, but ready to use deadly force at any moment."

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Re: Ukraine unrest

Post by Neptune Glory » Wed Dec 30, 2015 7:14 am

OK... probably not the most reliable source, and obviously pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian... but if this is true, how bad is it?

From Monday, December 28th, 2015:

https://dninews.com/article/kiev-prepar ... nds-lavrov
"When it comes to justifiable use of deadly force, you should seek to avoid confrontation, unless you have no choice and your life is on the line. This is easier to say than to do because it requires that you be calm and peace-loving throughout your life, but ready to use deadly force at any moment."

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