140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

[Mikeyboy]

You just stated something that would immediately derail the thread because it injects a personal interpretation that is a 'polar" opposite of those held by others and will devolve into non-factual debate.

You just highlighted the fundamental problem with even trying to stick to a "how is this going to affect me from a prepping standpoint" thread. The how, the why, and the what are no longer matters of "personal interpretation" or opinion. They're long-settled scientific fact. However, if you correctly state them as scientific fact, you'll get attacked (less so on this forum than others) for bringing up politics. The science isn't political. What nation states do about the reality is obviously political. What we as individuals do about the reality isn't political either.

The changing climate is going to be the single largest stability and security disruption those of us prepping now will face in our lifetimes (because it will be the driving force behind changing threat profiles) and yet we can't even talk about it because people call the science itself political because that lets them avoid it.

So, just to actually bring some prepping into this: Today, my place was as cold as 10F and has 6" of snow and ice. Two days from now, it's supposed to be 50F and raining (without a gradual warm-up in between). We're currently working to make sure that the water has a way to get though the ice and snow to get to the creek and not flood us out and we're also re-checking our power-outage preps because the ice falling off trees and things often knocks out power lines.

What are you guys doing about your weather?

The problem is that statement right there is stating a political opinion.

For years we were supposed to see sudden drastic life altering changes in the weather, but it hasn't happened. Here is the problem....weather and global temps are always is in flux, and throughout history weather has changed dramatically. We have had ice ages with huge glaciers over most of North America, and warm weather with grass growing sub tropical creatures living at the poles. The Vikings flourished when the global weather got warm, and a few centuries later Viking settlements in Greenland died off when the got global cold again and Greenland iced over.

People panic when its unusually cold, unusually hot, or there is a major storm....however there has been worse throughout history. Yes it has snowed in July in the USA over 100 years ago, It was also in the 80's in January in New York about 80 years ago. It snows bad in buffalo on a regular basis

You think having brutal cold/ice/snow then shifting to milder weather is something new in the USA. Try looking at the first winter in the Plymouth Colony in 1620-21.

http://www.stormfax.com/thanksgv.htm

Moral of the story things get political when folks either say, "Human cannot change the climate, there is no such thing as climate change" to "The changing climate is going to be the single largest stability and security disruption those of us prepping now will face in our lifetimes". Both statements half truths, and more based on political rhetoric.

There is no unbiased evidence of a "Climate Change bogyman". Something so bad that we are all going to die within the next 50 years. However changing weather happens, whether its cold, heat, drought, flood, or storms. Its the basic "shit" that could hit the fan, and something we should prep for.

Prep for harsh winter storm if you live up north. Prep for a flood if you live on a flood plane. Prep for a hurricane if you live on the coast, or a tornado if you live in tornado alley.....There is no need to prep the ice age or waterworld.

[woodsghost]

Ummmm, I'm getting the impression we can't discuss "the weather" without strong feelings. Perhaps we should discuss politics, religion, or sex instead?

[ghostface]

The problem is that statement right there is stating a political opinion.

Disagree. That's stating an opinion (rather than a scientific conclusion), but there is nothing inherently political about it, any more than if he said "infectious diseases are the single most important issue to preppers" is "political".

For years we were supposed to see sudden drastic life altering changes in the weather, but it hasn't happened.

I'm not sure what this is supposed to mean, but the issues of a) what changes were "we were supposed to see" according to the consensus position of the scientific community and b) what we have seen are both apolitical, factually-answerable issues.

Here is the problem....weather and global temps are always is in flux, and throughout history weather has changed dramatically. We have had ice ages with huge glaciers over most of North America, and warm weather with grass growing sub tropical creatures living at the poles. The Vikings flourished when the global weather got warm, and a few centuries later Viking settlements in Greenland died off when the got global cold again and Greenland iced over.

I would quibble slightly with some of this, but the general point- that climatic changes have occurred prior to now- is true enough. It doesn't really mean much though. People have died from natural causes as long as there have been people; that doesn't mean humans can't be murdered.

Moreover, understanding the existence of natural climatic changes (their causes, their impacts, and how we expect them to behave in the future) not only would be great for preparedness discussions in general, but in the scientific realm, increased understanding of natural changes has grown hand-in-hand with increased understanding of how the system changes in response to human perturbations.

There is no unbiased evidence of a "Climate Change bogyman".

I'm not sure what this is supposed to mean. Of course there is ample evidence that the climate system responds not only to unforced variability that arises due to the emergent properties of the system, but also to changes in external forcings such as solar irradiance, aerosol loading, greenhouse gases, etc.

Something so bad that we are all going to die within the next 50 years.

Is this what you meant by "bogyman"? If so, I would agree, but also point out that it has nothing to do with the consensus position of the scientific community either, and I question the utility in bringing it up.

However changing weather happens, whether its cold, heat, drought, flood, or storms. Its the basic "shit" that could hit the fan, and something we should prep for.

Sure. But that does not mean that the future will be the same (and thus people should prepare the same) regardless of whether anthropogenic perturbation of the climate system is occurring (which it is) vs. whether the climate is changing due to natural causes alone vs. the climate is not changing meaningfully at all.

Again, causation matters. And it matters a lot.

Prep for harsh winter storm if you live up north. Prep for a flood if you live on a flood plane. Prep for a hurricane if you live on the coast, or a tornado if you live in tornado alley.....There is no need to prep the ice age or waterworld.

Perhaps not, but should people planning to leave land for their descendents near the coast be concerned about significant (i.e. feet worth) of sea level rise if greenhouse emissions are not stabilized? Should people in the mid-Atlantic assume that they can avoid prepping for very cold winters in the near to medium term because it's getting warmer? Will the drought in the southwest continue to worsen or see relief?

All of those questions are preparedness-related can be informed by understanding the scientific evidence on this issue.

Hence, from my perspective, it's a worthwhile subject.

I can tell you that there is enormous confusion on the subject of North American winter weather and tropical cyclones in a warming world by people on this forum who worry about a great deal about anthropogenic global warming as well as those who think it's a hoax.

Edited to add: If we're going to call anything on which people express disagreement "political" and mark it as deletable, that's going to lead to an outcome a lot more disruptive than having a frank discussion about the role of climate change in disaster prep, IMHO.

[williaty]

The problem is that statement right there is stating a political opinion.

No, it's really not. It's like me saying gravity is real and something we're all going to have to deal with and you calling that a political opinion.

This is site is about taking unavoidable bad things and figuring out how to deal with them. Robberies, natural disasters, economic difficulties, etc. Heck, we even have people on here seriously prepping for global thermonuclear war. Here's some of the (long term) unavoidable bad things we ought to be talking about how to prep for on this site:

1) Change in frequency of weather-related natural disasters. Some places might see floods more often, others might see tornadoes more often. Regardless of what's going to affect your location, something going from a once in a thousand year problem to a once in ten year problem should significantly alter your threat assessment and your response to that assessment.

2) Change in cost and availability of food staples. You mentioned the Viking settlements. One of the things that did them in was the climate changing faster than they could adapt their agriculture to match. Right now, a huge amount of our food, one way or another (meaning we either eat it or eat something that eats it), depends on industrial farming in the midwest/great plains and parts of California. What happens to wheat and beef pricing if the upper great plains experiences a consistently shorter growing season? What happens to the availability of fresh produce if daytime high temperatures in the Salinas Valley rise to the point that many plants either don't survive to maturity or produce significantly lower yeilds?

3) Change in availability of water. What happens if the 100 year drought conditions happen on a 5-year cycle? What happens if reduced rainfall drops aquifer refill below break-even and the amount of water spent to irrigate food production has to be reduced to meet potable water demand? What happens if rainfall locations change and down-stream metro areas no longer receive water from upland locations because those people are using it all to drink? This is the one that, to me, seems unavoidably political as people will fight quite viciously over water.

For years we were supposed to see sudden drastic life altering changes in the weather, but it hasn't happened.

I would like to point out to you that scientists sometimes use words, ESPECIALLY time-domain words, very differently than the general public. "Sudden" to a geologist might mean 100,000 years because it's a process that typically takes 100,000,000 years. Then that same scientist might turn around and apply the word "sudden" to a volcano explosion that's over and done with in minutes. Time-domain words have to be viewed in the scientific context in which they're used. To address your statements about ice ages/glaciation, the fastest properly-cited rate for glacial advancement I can find is a foot a day. It's (roughly) 12.5Mft from where the Arctic ice cap is now down to my location, which was under several miles of glacier during the last major North American glaciation. That means, at the fastest previously documented advance of glaciation, I'd have multiple tens of thousands of years of warning. I think that's enough time for humanity to prep for it.

But what happens if we have a much smaller, but still agriculturally significant, change in climate in a food growing area that takes 25 years? In climate terms, 25 years is extremely "sudden". 25 years about a 3rd of your life. How many of us, really, would notice and believe there was a slow change over that much time without looking at proper records? However, it takes a long time to identify the change, calculate its implications, devise a planned response, and begin to implement that response on a large scale. Looking at it that way, it'd be almost impossible to get a nation state to react to a change that was over in a blink of an eye (25 years).


Take the same example and apply it to something I'm spending a lot of time dealing with right now: housing. Say we had an increase in maximum winter snow loading. Pretend that my area went from what it has now to, say, matching Calgary a couple of times a year. Roofs are going to cave in which is going to cause injury, death, and massive economic fallout as insurance companies go under, people lose houses, etc. From dealing with the issues I have now, I can tell you it takes about 15 years from the time a potential improvement in building science is identified to the time it begins to be required in the most-aggressive jurisdictions in the nation. So in 15 years, you'll START seeing new houses built to comply with the new predicted snow loads. Of course, those predictions are now 15 years out of date...


So you can see that changes that are so slow they're nearly impossible for us to notice "on our own" actually can happen so fast that they're difficult to react to in time on a larger scale.

[raptor]

Oh good grief I turn my back and go do something else after saying ....

The problem with that thread is the huge level of politics involved in the subject. If there is a way to cite facts (& not opinion) only and avoid the politics of the issue you are welcome to try.

I did not mean that as a go ahead to have that discussion in this DICE thread. The OT forum would be a good place to start such a discussion.

Please stick to the topic here...what are you doing to deal with the cold weather right now.

BTW I would note the following old cliches are indeed so old that they are cliches:

If you do not like the weather wait a minute.

The trouble with weather forecasting is that it’s right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.

The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco.

And my favorite, which may actually apply here:
Don’t knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn’t start a conversation if it didn’t change once in a while.

[quazi]

Last winter was the warmest I can remember. I'm hoping for a repeat this year, but hopefully with no god damned chinooks.

I'm still feeling a little nervous because I stripped a bunch of the cold weather gear out of my BOB to lend to my brother for his two-month camping trip.

[ghostface]

The OT forum would be a good place to start such a discussion.

Hmmm. It's not really "off topic" though, to talk about something that directly impacts long term preparedness planning, is it?

At least in terms of what I was thinking about was to keep something in the DICE section because this is where all of the "hurr durr, it's cold outside, where's your global warming now?" posts happen. And they do happen, pretty much every year. (They also happen in tropical cyclone/hurricane threads, although not as frequently.)

I'm not trying to argue, just work towards an optimal solution. My moderating days are long behind me, so I defer to the folks who can still put in the time for it.

Edited to add: If you're living pretty much anywhere other than the midwest/easy coast of the US, north pole, or Antarctica, you're probably wondering what the fuss is about, because it's close to average or even warmer than normal for you.

[manowar1313]

Yea it was 74 degrees during the day then by 9pm the temp dropped to 27 and I'm in Kansas. I was looking forward to fall but mother nature decided it be a cold nasty woman. I can't imagine what mother natures doing to the Great Lakes.

It did surprise me though when reading some of the comments, people didn't have any food and were melting snow for water. As a prepper I can feed a family of 4 out of my car for a week, how do people not have food in their homes??? (Off topic?)

Also this thread is over a year old and complaining about the same conditions, if that's not climate change what is?

[raptor]

The OT forum would be a good place to start such a discussion.

Hmmm. It's not really "off topic" though, to talk about something that directly impacts long term preparedness planning, is it?

Ghostface check your PMs.

It did surprise me though when reading some of the comments, people didn't have any food and were melting snow for water. As a prepper I can feed a family of 4 out of my car for a week, how do people not have food in their homes??? (Off topic?)

You hit on a sore point for me.

Every winter it gets cold.

Every summer it gets hot and areas like mine have a chance of a hurricane.

Come on folks if we can plan for 4th of July, birthdays, Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Years we can plan for bad weather.

end rant/

[teotwaki]

No, it's really not. I----------------SNIP-SNIP-SNIP-SNIP-----

841 words off topic. Please give it a rest.

[raptor]

Getting back on topic... to be clear... this thread is for people being adversely affected by the current cold weather.

[gundogs]

7-8 feet of snow in my area. We're fine--plenty of food,fuel,water. Hobbies and books to keep us occupied,
We often get a lot of snow and as always I'm amazed at the number of folks who are just plain stupid
and can't survive a few days without help

[ghostface]

Folks who got snowed in, also keep in mind that you should be prepared for flooding, as the NWS is calling for Spring-like heat in a lot of places that got dumped on by the white cold stuff.

Edited to add: Link http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... even-feet/

[raptor]

Folks who got snowed in, also keep in mind that you should be prepared for flooding, as the NWS is calling for Spring-like heat in a lot of places that got dumped on by the white cold stuff.

Great point!
What a very unpleasant thought that I had not considered. That is why I like this forum. It is full good ideas and smart people.

[majorhavoc]

Indeed, they're predicting not just heat, but rain. Flooding can get very bad after an early season snowstorm followed by a wet thaw. The combination of compacted snow and ice, along with fallen leaves, often plugs up the drains on streets: which is where the melting happens fastest. Sometimes that water has nowhere to go and thoroughfares quickly turn into minor rivers.

Snow loads on roofs are also a huge problem if they aren't cleared before it begins to rain. A roof that can safely handle several feet of dry, fluffy snow can collapse if it becomes saturated with tons of water. Ditto for tree branches overhanging power lines.

[Kutter_0311]

So who's the dumb shit that gets to work outside in this?

Oh, yeah... Me.

Look at Door County, WI on a map. It's the thin thumb right between the bay of Green Bay and Lake Michigan. All the vacationing Illinoisans left when November came, and I wish I could have, too. I'm stuck doing residential trash collection. Not automated, hand pick.

Actually this sounds like a perfect case study for staying warm while working. Do you mind sharing some tips for folks like me who are not experienced in extreme cold weather?

How do you dress for this type of activity? What kind of gloves do you use?

It sounds physically demanding (so you have worry about heat build up and sweat) yet absolutely F'ing COLD. What tips would offer?

And footwear!

Sorry, just checked back in on this thread. Long hours this week.

Footwear: KEEN Detroit 8" steel toe - Love this boot, hate that it's special order. It took 5 months to come in, but I put the order in early, and got them 2 months before this shit hit.

Good: waterproof, lightweight, good tread and ankle support, little reflective bits to help drivers see me when I'm working curbside/not so much I wouldn't wear them tactically. The only boot I've worn for 14 hours of curbstomping, then gone to the grocery store in with all the kids. Comfortable for looong stretches!

Bad: WP isn't all the way up, as the tongue isn't gussetted. My first pair took a shit at the end of last winter. Good timing, as replacements were not readily available. A stitch blew out at the Achilles area, where the upper shaft joins the lower boot. They took a hell of a beating over the winter, so I feel I certainly got my money's worth.

Conclusion: Have more than 1 pair. I need 2 more pair for this winter: 1 more pair for work, so I can switch every day, and a pair for non-work wear, that can be swapped in later if one pair blows out. Boots last longer if you rotate them, anyway.

More to follow...

[ghostface]

Holy crap:

A flood watch is in effect through Wednesday for five Buffalo area counties as three days worth of snow combines with rain and temperatures of up to 60 degrees early next week.

Can anyone from the area confirm whether normal home/rental insurance will cover that sort of flooding, or whether you need separate insurance?

[Doctorr Fabulous]

Holy crap:

A flood watch is in effect through Wednesday for five Buffalo area counties as three days worth of snow combines with rain and temperatures of up to 60 degrees early next week.

Can anyone from the area confirm whether normal home/rental insurance will cover that sort of flooding, or whether you need separate insurance?

Check your policy. It's the only way to be certain.

[TacAir]

Holy crap:

A flood watch is in effect through Wednesday for five Buffalo area counties as three days worth of snow combines with rain and temperatures of up to 60 degrees early next week.

Can anyone from the area confirm whether normal home/rental insurance will cover that sort of flooding, or whether you need separate insurance?

All the PSA I've ever seen say - NO. You need FedGov flood insurance to cover flooding.

Now, if your roof were to collapse, the snow melts inside and floods your stuff, you'd still need to see if your policy covers that.

If a pipe breaks and floods the house...I've seen that covered by nearly every decent homeowners policy.

Good luck.

[DarkAxel]

Holy crap:

A flood watch is in effect through Wednesday for five Buffalo area counties as three days worth of snow combines with rain and temperatures of up to 60 degrees early next week.

Can anyone from the area confirm whether normal home/rental insurance will cover that sort of flooding, or whether you need separate insurance?

It's my understanding that if the water comes into the house from below (flooding), your normal policy DOES NOT cover the damage, but if the water comes into the house from above (roof gets blown off or collapses) it is covered under most normal policies. IIRC, a bunch of homeowners in NOLA got hosed by their insurance companies after Katrina because this.

[duodecima]

Holy crap:

A flood watch is in effect through Wednesday for five Buffalo area counties as three days worth of snow combines with rain and temperatures of up to 60 degrees early next week.

Can anyone from the area confirm whether normal home/rental insurance will cover that sort of flooding, or whether you need separate insurance?

It's my understanding that if the water comes into the house from below (flooding), your normal policy DOES NOT cover the damage, but if the water comes into the house from above (roof gets blown off or collapses) it is covered under most normal policies. IIRC, a bunch of homeowners in NOLA got hosed by their insurance companies after Katrina because this.

My understanding was a bit different - water from outside the house is flooding and probably requires flood insurance, and water inside the house (sewer backups, roof damage, burst pipes.) should be covered (up to a limit, for me it's $20K for certain things which might or might not be enough depending on the damage). But I wouldn't rely on that either. Either my google-fu is weak, or the answer to whether damage from torrential rainwater running into your house is covered by standard homeowners is "It depends." Or some element of both, which is what I suspect.

The big Katrina insurance fights, as I understood it, were over whether damage or parts of the damage was caused primarilly by water vs. wind damage, since wind was covered and water wasn't. In what little I can figure from what I've looked up, the only answer I can reliably figure out, is that if your insurance agent tells you that water run off into your basement will be covered by your homeowners, you'd better get it in writing and keep that statement with your policy.

[Stercutus]

How bad does it have to be when they move a football game to Detroit due to bad weather? Now we know. When you move a game to Detroit how do you get people to actually go there? Make it free!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-2 ... -snow.html

So if anyone in that area wants to go the game for free hit up the Lion's website.

[ghostface]

Hot as balls today in a lot of the places that got the lake effect snow. I really hope people got the snow cleared in Buffalo...

[raptor]

Whoever mentioned the risk of flooded called that correctly.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2 ... /19475937/