140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by williaty » Wed Jan 15, 2014 9:43 pm

majorhavoc wrote:
williaty wrote: Summers in winter are just suicidal.
And Winters in summer is just mad, mad, mad. :crazy:

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Though you were funny, to be serious for a moment, running winter tires in summer is merely a waste of money. Usually a pretty rapid waste of money. But it's not dangerous like running summers in the winter.

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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by teotwaki » Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:40 pm

http://www.newsmax.com/newswidget/dark- ... id/607672/

Climatologist: 30-Year Cold Spell Strikes Earth

With nasty cold fronts thrusting an icy and early winter across the continental U.S. — along with last winter described by USA Today as "one of the snowiest, coldest, most miserable on record" — climatologist John L. Casey thinks the weather pattern is here to stay for decades to come.

In fact, Casey, a former space shuttle engineer and NASA consultant, is out with the provocative book "Dark Winter: How the Sun Is Causing a 30-Year Cold Spell," which warns that a radical shift in global climate is underway, and that Al Gore and other environmentalists have it completely wrong.

The earth, he says, is cooling, and cooling fast.

And unless the scientific community and political leaders act soon, cold, dark days are ahead........." rest at the link
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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by williaty » Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:49 pm

teotwaki wrote:Climatologist: 30-Year Cold Spell Strikes Earth
The "scientist" who wrote that? Yeah, he's the equivalent of the "tactical expert" on here recommending a pistol-grip-only pump shotgun loaded with rock salt for home defense and suggests both warning shots and aiming to wound. Dude is spreading woo, just like snake oil salesmen.


In other words, it's incredible non-science and non-sense.

There are good, consensus-accepted, scientifically consistent explanations for why we're having worse winters at the same time that average global temperatures are rising. Actually, let me turn that around to be more clear: there's consensus-accepted, scientifically consistent explanations for how rising global average temperatures are causing worse winters in some places.

You have to remember that your weather today does not a climate trend make.

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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by raptor » Mon Nov 17, 2014 2:13 pm

Ok folks the Global Warming/Global Climate change issue is fraught with politics that must be avoided.

I think everyone agrees that the weather changes every summer, winter, spring and fall. That and there have been several ice ages and even a year without summer in 1816.

It is the what to do and what is causing it that everyone seems to disagree about and politics get brought into the matter.

So please steer clear of the politics and stick to the topic.

Back on topic. It went from 75F to 52F here in less than hour last night.

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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by teotwaki » Mon Nov 17, 2014 3:09 pm

raptor wrote:Ok folks the Global Warming/Global Climate change issue is fraught with politics that must be avoided.

I think everyone agrees that the weather changes every summer, winter, spring and fall. That and there have been several ice ages and even a year without summer in 1816.

It is the what to do and what is causing it that everyone seems to disagree about and politics get brought into the matter.

So please steer clear of the politics and stick to the topic.

Back on topic. It went from 75F to 52F here in less than hour last night.
Thanks! I was expecting the sort of response that I already got and I agree that we don't need to be hearing the rhetoric :words: that can be found everywhere else.

I am more interested in how folks would adjust their preparations or even take a spin at whether or not zombies will be less lethal in a deep freeze. :mrgreen: I thought it would be better to add to an existing thread than start a new one.
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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by raptor » Mon Nov 17, 2014 4:05 pm

teotwaki wrote: I am more interested in how folks would adjust their preparations or even take a spin at whether or not zombies will be less lethal in a deep freeze. :mrgreen: I thought it would be better to add to an existing thread than start a new one.

This is a perfect place to restart the discussion. :D

In NOLA we really do not get hit too hard by freezing temperatures but when we do get more than 24 hours below freezing it plays hell with us because we are not normally getting such low temperatures.

My standard freeze response is to turn on the pool heater and circulate the pool water. The warm water keeps my backyard a bit warmer and hence the tropical plants in my garden are more likely to survive.

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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by teotwaki » Mon Nov 17, 2014 5:55 pm

For myself I have been out in the cold for a lot of winter mountaineering but the gear that I use is generally not the best for living in cold conditions. For everyday wear one brand that always comes up is Carhartt because you can wear them over your thermal layers and perform real work without having to worry about rips and other damage.
Image

So if we have a much colder climate and some sort of post apocalyptic scenario then part of our preps will extend to a wardrobe change to match the environment.
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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by mr_slappy75 » Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:49 am

Ah Raptor, but to have your troubles when the temps go down!

In Chicagoland this morning, with a median of 10 degrees and depending on how close you are to lake Michigan, wind chill factoring anywhere between -4 (Downtown Chicago, right by the lake) to -10 (DuPage, Kane and De Kalb counties, about 10 to 25 miles due West)

Lots of weather and temperature related complications in my AO:

Lake Shore Drive had to be closed in certain stretches due to spray blown from the lake freezing and becoming a driving hazard

I-94 coming in from IN had really bad ice patches and reported several vehicles either going off the road or involved in pile ups.

In spite of the @@$ cold temps, the sun is out and most main roadways have already reported fender benders due to 'sun blinded' drivers (Really, you'd think that this is the first time these people have driven during a Chicago winter!)

A small plane crashed on the South side of Chicago, shortly after leaving Midway airport and experiencing unresponsive controls; the cause yet to be determined but reports from the control tower state that the pilot was experiencing 'lockup' and attempting to return.

Issues with public transportation: electric train delays and with the yearly spat of 'early winter heating related fires' no less than 2 three alarm fires in residential areas had to be attended to before dawn today Tuesday 11/18.

Due to water main bursting on business district West of the Chicago Loop (for those of you who watched the Batman movies, this is the neighborhood where Heath Ledger's Joker blows up that hospital) several businesses, WGN Radio among them have had to cease operations until utilities can come in and address the issue.

As a result of all this, the roads are a mess, commutes from / to anywhere in the area are about 25% to 40% longer than normal and the first responders have their hands full.

On the prep end:
Make sure all your snow management supplies are ready to go: Shovels, blowers, car kit, snow brush, healthy supply of snow remover or rock salt both at home and with main vehicle.

Insure fuel level is at half tank or better and make sure your BOV / daily commuter car kit is on task for the season.

The list is ever growing and all encompassing, we really got hit hard here last year with a 1-2 punch combo of lots of snow followed by the over hyped Artic Vortex and I have other things to make sure are in order before we really get to the dead of winter. Two weeks out from Thankgiving and everyone is already getting ready for the deep freeze that is not supposed to get here until the beginning of December.

I might update more of the prep and contingency stuff myself, family and friends in my AO are dealing with due to the Deep Freeze.
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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by teotwaki » Tue Nov 18, 2014 4:24 pm

mr_slappy75,

I'd be interested in your winter car kit. Do you plan for a walk home or "bugging in" at the car?

Jim
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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by Kutter_0311 » Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:09 pm

So who's the dumb shit that gets to work outside in this?

Oh, yeah... Me.

Look at Door County, WI on a map. It's the thin thumb right between the bay of Green Bay and Lake Michigan. All the vacationing Illinoisans left when November came, and I wish I could have, too. I'm stuck doing residential trash collection. Not automated, hand pick.
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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by raptor » Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:59 am

mr_slappy75 wrote:Ah Raptor, but to have your troubles when the temps go down!
Yes we are blessed with a more temperate climate in winter but if you come to NOLA in August when it is 95F and 100% humidity you will understand the need for the aforementioned pool which BTW has white plaster and a sun shade so the water temperature will stay below 95F. :D


Kutter_0311 wrote:So who's the dumb shit that gets to work outside in this?

Oh, yeah... Me.

Look at Door County, WI on a map. It's the thin thumb right between the bay of Green Bay and Lake Michigan. All the vacationing Illinoisans left when November came, and I wish I could have, too. I'm stuck doing residential trash collection. Not automated, hand pick.
Actually this sounds like a perfect case study for staying warm while working. Do you mind sharing some tips for folks like me who are not experienced in extreme cold weather?

How do you dress for this type of activity? What kind of gloves do you use?

It sounds physically demanding (so you have worry about heat build up and sweat) yet absolutely F'ing COLD. What tips would offer?

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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by teotwaki » Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:23 am

raptor wrote:
Actually this sounds like a perfect case study for staying warm while working. Do you mind sharing some tips for folks like me who are not experienced in extreme cold weather?

How do you dress for this type of activity? What kind of gloves do you use?

It sounds physically demanding (so you have worry about heat build up and sweat) yet absolutely F'ing COLD. What tips would offer?

And footwear!
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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by Mikeyboy » Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:50 am

This weather is driving me nuts. The so called "Polar Vortex" is hitting PA now and Low temps went into the teens in South East PA and northern PA and NY got slammed with snow. I said to myself earlier in the week "ohh crap, you are going deer hunting soon, you better invest in some super warm hunting clothes"

$150 later, I have enough Camo and Blaze Orange heavy clothes to bundle up better that Ralphie's brother in The Christmas Story.

Then I see the weather for next week....in Philly Monday's high may reach 70 :vmad:

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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by ghostface » Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:05 pm

How much interest would there be in a thread dedicated to what climate change actually is and its relevance is for disaster prep? It seems like every winter there will be a renewed back and forth about cold weather and global warming before things descend (unnecessarily) into off topic nonsense. Some possible points of interest:

- Do cold winters disprove global warming? Does global warming mean cold winters should get paradoxically worse?
- What is the role of climate change with regard to extreme weather and storms?
- Should climate change play a role in your prep?
- Open Q&A on climate issues
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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by flybynight » Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:20 pm

Good example of dressing for cold.. http://windowontheprairie.com/?s=thermal
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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by raptor » Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:52 pm

ghostface wrote:How much interest would there be in a thread dedicated to what climate change actually is and its relevance is for disaster prep? It seems like every winter there will be a renewed back and forth about cold weather and global warming before things descend (unnecessarily) into off topic nonsense. Some possible points of interest:

- Do cold winters disprove global warming? Does global warming mean cold winters should get paradoxically worse?
- What is the role of climate change with regard to extreme weather and storms?
- Should climate change play a role in your prep?
- Open Q&A on climate issues
The problem with that thread is the huge level of politics involved in the subject. If there is a way to cite facts (& not opinion) only and avoid the politics of the issue you are welcome to try.

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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by ghostface » Wed Nov 19, 2014 2:05 pm

raptor wrote:The problem with that thread is the huge level of politics involved in the subject. If there is a way to cite facts (& not opinion) only and avoid the politics of the issue you are welcome to try.
Well, that's part of the reason why I think it might be worth a thread.

Because politics really don't need to come into it, and indeed calling it a political issue sort of cedes the ground to folks who would like to perpetuate the idea that the scientific community is divided on the issue.

There are some legitimately preparedness-relevant issues pertaining to climate, but making the whole topic off limits (because a handful of people can't discuss it like grown ups) means everyone else loses out.

And like I said, it seems like people are going to bring it up every winter anyway, so might as well make it preparedness-focused and fact-based.
The tools of conquest do not necessarily come with bombs and explosions and fallout. There are weapons that are simply thoughts, attitudes, prejudices, to be found only in the minds of men. For the record, prejudices can kill and suspicion can destroy, and a thoughtless, frightened search for a scapegoat has a fallout all its own...

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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by woodsghost » Wed Nov 19, 2014 2:21 pm

ghostface wrote:How much interest would there be in a thread dedicated to what climate change actually is and its relevance is for disaster prep? It seems like every winter there will be a renewed back and forth about cold weather and global warming before things descend (unnecessarily) into off topic nonsense. Some possible points of interest:

- Do cold winters disprove global warming? Does global warming mean cold winters should get paradoxically worse?
- What is the role of climate change with regard to extreme weather and storms?
- Should climate change play a role in your prep?
- Open Q&A on climate issues
I think the way to separate "facts" from "politics" is to separate "preparing for the weather" from "global warming/cooling/climate change."

Preparing for bad weather has no politics attached. Where the weather is coming from tends to be political (whether it is some man made thing, natural cycle, or we forgot to sacrifice a virgin on Friday night because none of the computer science people were around). The "why" is less important than the "what" from a preparedness standpoint. At least, that is where I'm coming from.

I don't care where the zombies came from, just that they are here, in my backyard, and I want to deal with them.
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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by teotwaki » Wed Nov 19, 2014 2:38 pm

ghostface wrote:
Well, that's part of the reason why I think it might be worth a thread.

Because politics really don't need to come into it, and indeed calling it a political issue sort of cedes the ground to folks who would like to perpetuate the idea that the scientific community is divided on the issue.

There are some legitimately preparedness-relevant issues pertaining to climate, but making the whole topic off limits (because a handful of people can't discuss it like grown ups) means everyone else loses out.

And like I said, it seems like people are going to bring it up every winter anyway, so might as well make it preparedness-focused and fact-based.

You just stated something that would immediately derail the thread because it injects a personal interpretation that is a 'polar" opposite of those held by others and will devolve into non-factual debate.

If you stick to specific climate scenarios based on facts such as wind, precipitation and temperature ranges and how it rates to preps you will succeed.
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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by teotwaki » Wed Nov 19, 2014 2:40 pm

flybynight wrote:Good example of dressing for cold.. http://windowontheprairie.com/?s=thermal

Great link!!
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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by ghostface » Wed Nov 19, 2014 2:41 pm

woodsghost wrote:I think the way to separate "facts" from "politics" is to separate "preparing for the weather" from "global warming/cooling/climate change."

Preparing for bad weather has no politics attached. Where the weather is coming from tends to be political (whether it is some man made thing, natural cycle, or we forgot to sacrifice a virgin on Friday night because none of the computer science people were around). The "why" is less important than the "what" from a preparedness standpoint. At least, that is where I'm coming from.

I don't care where the zombies came from, just that they are here, in my backyard, and I want to deal with them.
This raises a good point, and one that speaks directly to whether or not a thread would be useful. Basically, you're saying that causation is irrelevant and that the future will be the same as the present/past.

I would say that these two propositions aren't true; that causation does matter, and that causation provides information about what to expect from the future that you otherwise would not have.

There are people on this forum who are young enough to live a very long time into the future. What happens (or doesn't) in the next decade or so in terms of climate mitigation and adaptation measures will have an enormous impact on the trajectory their future will see, with profound implications for disaster preparedness.

Causation also matters in the near term. Understanding the difference between cold due to

a) plain old weather
b) a descent into a new ice age lasting millennia
c) the negative phase of a mode of interannual to decadal natural variability like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation or Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
d) stuck weather patterns due to the loss of Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover, driven by greenhouse gases

Each have different implications for preparedness on timescales ranging from year-to-year to many decades.
The tools of conquest do not necessarily come with bombs and explosions and fallout. There are weapons that are simply thoughts, attitudes, prejudices, to be found only in the minds of men. For the record, prejudices can kill and suspicion can destroy, and a thoughtless, frightened search for a scapegoat has a fallout all its own...

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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by ghostface » Wed Nov 19, 2014 2:46 pm

teotwaki wrote:You just stated something that would immediately derail the thread because it injects a personal interpretation that is a 'polar" opposite of those held by others and will devolve into non-factual debate.
How so?

Surely the question of whether "the scientific community is divided on the issue" is a factually-answerable one, is it not?

* The scientific community publishes its findings in the peer reviewed scientific literature, which can be analyzed.
* Relevant experts can be surveyed about their positions directly.
* Scientific organizations release position statements on topics of public interest all the time.

Do you agree that it is possible to assess the question of whether or not the scientific community is divided or in broad agreement about a given issue?
The tools of conquest do not necessarily come with bombs and explosions and fallout. There are weapons that are simply thoughts, attitudes, prejudices, to be found only in the minds of men. For the record, prejudices can kill and suspicion can destroy, and a thoughtless, frightened search for a scapegoat has a fallout all its own...

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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by williaty » Wed Nov 19, 2014 2:48 pm

teotwaki wrote:You just stated something that would immediately derail the thread because it injects a personal interpretation that is a 'polar" opposite of those held by others and will devolve into non-factual debate.
You just highlighted the fundamental problem with even trying to stick to a "how is this going to affect me from a prepping standpoint" thread. The how, the why, and the what are no longer matters of "personal interpretation" or opinion. They're long-settled scientific fact. However, if you correctly state them as scientific fact, you'll get attacked (less so on this forum than others) for bringing up politics. The science isn't political. What nation states do about the reality is obviously political. What we as individuals do about the reality isn't political either.

The changing climate is going to be the single largest stability and security disruption those of us prepping now will face in our lifetimes (because it will be the driving force behind changing threat profiles) and yet we can't even talk about it because people call the science itself political because that lets them avoid it.



So, just to actually bring some prepping into this: Today, my place was as cold as 10F and has 6" of snow and ice. Two days from now, it's supposed to be 50F and raining (without a gradual warm-up in between). We're currently working to make sure that the water has a way to get though the ice and snow to get to the creek and not flood us out and we're also re-checking our power-outage preps because the ice falling off trees and things often knocks out power lines.

What are you guys doing about your weather?

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Re: 140 million Americans Affected by Deep Freeze

Post by duodecima » Wed Nov 19, 2014 2:55 pm

woodsghost wrote: I think the way to separate "facts" from "politics" is to separate "preparing for the weather" from "global warming/cooling/climate change."
(snip)
I don't care where the zombies came from, just that they are here, in my backyard, and I want to deal with them.
Weather prep is certainly basic to so many issues including climate change and is the more basic topic - but what crops/trees to plant for my sustainable urban yard needs to deal not only with weather but with what climate is and will be, or I could spend a bunch of time and money on trees that might have liked the way things were at my house 10-20 years ago, but are not going to thrive or be so productive in another 10 years because things are changing. Since there are some scientific facts that can be stated, I'd be a fool not to try take them into consideration.

It's the difference between basic zombie killing techniques (blunt force vs piercing vs decapitation, how to approach fast vs. slow) and understanding the zombie biology that lets you predict what times and dates and phases of the moon make them more likely to come into your backyard and when they will be fast or slow. Both important and relevant but not the same.

(fake edit - ghost face just said that in a much more intelligent manner...)
ghostface wrote:
raptor wrote:The problem with that thread is the huge level of politics involved in the subject. If there is a way to cite facts (& not opinion) only and avoid the politics of the issue you are welcome to try.
Well, that's part of the reason why I think it might be worth a thread.

Because politics really don't need to come into it, and indeed calling it a political issue sort of cedes the ground to folks who would like to perpetuate the idea that the scientific community is divided on the issue.

There are some legitimately preparedness-relevant issues pertaining to climate, but making the whole topic off limits (because a handful of people can't discuss it like grown ups) means everyone else loses out.

And like I said, it seems like people are going to bring it up every winter anyway, so might as well make it preparedness-focused and fact-based.
I'd love to see a climate-change disaster prep thread.

The fact that the weather, both on average and in how far and fast it swings from one state to another, is going to be different from what it has been in the past, could (imo should) be a preparedness topic. Facts and solid scientific evidence are not political in and of themselves (tho how individuals and groups choose to react to them certainly can be.) Facts may not be popular, but they're still facts and can't be pretended out of existence.

I think having a separate thread, where the ZSers who are SME's on the topic can explain things once, as opposed to doing it again&again, if they have time and energy, every time somebody makes an off-the-cuff comment, would be beneficial to that discussion/explanation.

Having a thread where we can firmly point everybody who wants to talk about that, instead of having it clutter up the practical CP&P or DICE threads, would be another benefit.
teotwaki wrote:You just stated something that would immediately derail the thread because it injects a personal interpretation that is a 'polar" opposite of those held by others and will devolve into non-factual debate.

If you stick to specific climate scenarios based on facts such as wind, precipitation and temperature ranges and how it rates to preps you will succeed.
Actually, if EVERYBODY is required to stick to the evidence (and evaluation of its merits, since what gets put out as "scientific" in the media is frequently oversimplified to the point of inaccuracy or is based on extremely dodgy 'research' - I can provide facts & examples that this is so... :evil: ) then I think the thread will be fine. It would eliminate the "but there's somebody who doesn't agree about X" because the fact that there's somebody saying something is less important than the quality of evidence brought to the topic.

Political might be if we tried to deal with how source of funding can influence results (although there is data on this as well).
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