Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

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Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by dogbane » Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:17 am

NOAA storm track
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AP article:
(WASHINGTON) — Much of the U.S. East Coast has a good chance of getting blasted by gale-force winds, flooding, heavy rain and maybe even snow early next week by an unusual hybrid of hurricane and winter storm, federal and private forecasters say.

Though still projecting several days ahead of Halloween week, the computer models are spooking meteorologists. Government scientists said Wednesday the storm has a 70 percent chance of smacking the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

Hurricane Sandy in the Caribbean, an early winter storm in the West, and a blast of arctic air from the North are predicted to collide, sloshing and parking over the country’s most populous coastal corridor starting Sunday. The worst of it should peak early Tuesday, but it will stretch into midweek, forecasters say.


“It’ll be a rough couple days from Hatteras up to Cape Cod,” said forecaster Jim Cisco of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration prediction center in College Park, Md. “We don’t have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting.”

It is likely to hit during a full moon when tides are near their highest, increasing coastal flooding potential, NOAA forecasts warn. And with some trees still leafy and the potential for snow, power outages could last to Election Day, some meteorologists fear. They say it has all the earmarks of a billion-dollar storm.

Some have compared it to the so-called Perfect Storm that struck off the coast of New England in 1991, but Cisco said that one didn’t hit as populated an area and is not comparable to what the East Coast may be facing. Nor is it like last year’s Halloween storm, which was merely an early snowstorm in the Northeast.

This has much more mess potential because it is a combination of different storm types that could produce a real whopper of weather problems, meteorologists say.

http://nation.time.com/2012/10/25/hybri ... z2AJfkNDgW" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Sorry for the lazy typo in the header.
Last edited by dogbane on Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Hurrican Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by majorhavoc » Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:25 am

Hmm. I do seem to recall something on the radio this AM about it possibly colliding with a system of arctic air moving into the northeast over the weekend. Could get messy.

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Re: Hurrican Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by raptor » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:12 am

Yeah...a hurricane that becomes a Noreaster snow storm. :shock:

How does that work... :?

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Re: Hurrican Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by majorhavoc » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:15 am

raptor wrote:Yeah...a hurricane that becomes a Noreaster snow storm. :shock:

How does that work... :?

That last time it occurred we had thunder and lighting during a snow storm. That's just not supposed to happen.

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Re: Hurrican Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by dogbane » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:18 am

majorhavoc wrote:
raptor wrote:Yeah...a hurricane that becomes a Noreaster snow storm. :shock:

How does that work... :?

That last time it occurred we had thunder and lighting during a snow storm. That's just not supposed to happen.
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Re: Hurrican Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by phil_in_cs » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:19 am

Biggest rain event we ever had was a slow moving October TS running into one of the first big cold fronts of the year. 22" of rain in 24 hours, or something like that.
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Re: Hurrican Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by polliedes » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:53 am

raptor wrote:Yeah...a hurricane that becomes a Noreaster snow storm. :shock:

How does that work... :?

what i saw on the news this morning was that there is an unusually low drop in the arctic jet stream that puts it on the same level as the hurricane whereas normally they pass at differing altitudes
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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by raptor » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:57 am

Don't forget TS Allison in 2001. That storm dropped 36 inches of rain on Houston in a 24 hour period. :shock:


My comment was more along the lines of the fact that a hurricane is primarily a heat engine. It needs warm water to grow and cold generally (though based upon Sandy obviously not always) weakens and destroys the organization necessary to keep the hurricane organized.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by Woods Walker » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:04 am

They're calling it "Frankenstorm".....

http://weather.yahoo.com/hybrid-sandy-w ... 40714.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"WASHINGTON (AP) — Government forecasters say a big storm that they're calling "Frankenstorm" is likely to blast most of the U.S. East Coast next week.

The storm is an unusual mix of a hurricane and a winter storm. The worst of it could be focused around New York City and New Jersey."
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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by phil_in_cs » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:12 am

raptor wrote:Don't forget TS Allison in 2001. That storm dropped 36 inches of rain on Houston in a 24 hour period. :shock:
We got very little from that. We were actually visiting Austin that day, and had no idea of the of the problem until we got home and turned on the news.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by TacAir » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:21 am

Location, location, location. Alaska got hit with a series of massive storms last winter that never made the funnies in the L48.

"The storm, with a pressure system and wind and wave conditions that meteorologists likened to a Category 3 hurricane, had passed by Thursday."

It was followed by a more typical Bering Sea storm, hitting southwestern Alaska instead of northern Alaska, and prompting new winter-storm and coastal-flooding warnings from the National Weather Service.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/ ... JW20111111" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.adn.com/2011/11/08/2161340/w ... dents.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

No wonder we had record snowfall levels, Statewide.

I wonder if a Cat 3 hurricane would be worse in New York or None? I'll have to admit, no subway system in Nome, or even a Subway sandwich shop for that matter.

High winds, massive snowfall, loss of utilities, and population displacement, no matter the location, are a disaster.
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Re: Hurrican Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by Vicarious_Lee » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:59 am

raptor wrote:Yeah...a hurricane that becomes a Noreaster snow storm. :shock:

How does that work... :?
fucking magnets? :crazy:

So the time for the Northeast Coasters to reveiw and ready their preps is about two days ago.

Stay safe, y'all.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by FanaticalModerate » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:05 pm

Navy is taking this seriously.
Still plenty of disagreement amongst the prediction models, but could be disastrous for NYC - "a 100+ year storm"
Powers that be in Manhattan are taking it quite seriously, as shown by NWS throwing everything they've got into making best/quickest predictions possible.
Because of the concentration of media in NYC, expect the hype machine to kick into unusually high gear (unless the track shifts further south and nails DC/Baltimore/Philly).
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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by Pomegrante » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:26 pm

I'm in Delaware which is where this may hit. But as luck would have it, I already have a vacation day planned for tomorrow to get some winter prepping done. My plans are to restock our dry/paper goods which we do every 6 months. Get salt, ice scraper and shovel before the rush. We have a NOAA hand crank solar radio and emergency flashlights already but incase of longer term power outage I'm going to get a lantern as well. I'm going to stock up on charcoal for the grill as our cooking/water heating source. We shouldn't get cold here this time of year so I'm not sure whether or not to invest in a propane space heater.

I would think it very unlikey we would have to bug out, but we will be keeping an eye (haha) on this storm!

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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by RickOShea » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:13 pm

raptor wrote:Yeah...a hurricane that becomes a Noreaster snow storm. :shock:

How does that work... :?
I've worked hurricanes, and I've worked ice storms.....I wouldn't want to have anything to do with whatever this Franken-hybrid is. :gonk:

TacAir wrote:I wonder if a Cat 3 hurricane would be worse in New York or None? I'll have to admit, no subway system in Nome, or even a Subway sandwich shop for that matter.

High winds, massive snowfall, loss of utilities, and population displacement, no matter the location, are a disaster.
I seem to recall reading or watching something about how the shape of the lower bay, south of NYC, could cause a Cat 1 hurricane to push in Cat 3 levels of storm surge.

ETA: Found this: http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazard ... tory.shtml
Last edited by RickOShea on Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by Stercutus » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:21 pm

I seem to recall seeing this in Day After Tomorrow. Should ZS Chapter 7 go to the NY City Public Library and start burning books now or should they wait till after the storm hits?
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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by raxar » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:25 pm

Blacksmith wrote:I seem to recall seeing this in Day After Tomorrow. Should ZS Chapter 7 go to the NY City Public Library and start burning books now or should they wait till after the storm hits?
wait till none of the harry potter books are checked out.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by Stercutus » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:27 pm

raxar wrote:
Blacksmith wrote:I seem to recall seeing this in Day After Tomorrow. Should ZS Chapter 7 go to the NY City Public Library and start burning books now or should they wait till after the storm hits?
wait till none of the harry potter books are checked out.
And all the copies of Fifty Shades... There might be hope for humanity yet.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by rhi » Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:42 pm

I'm keeping an eye on it, fo' sho'. It's forecast to be in this vicinity during a full-moon astronomical high tide, which is concerning. It's not typical for October hurricanes to be terribly potent up here, but with off-season storms there's always the notable exception.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by none1 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:17 pm

rhi wrote:I'm keeping an eye on it, fo' sho'. It's forecast to be in this vicinity during a full-moon astronomical high tide, which is concerning. It's not typical for October hurricanes to be terribly potent up here, but with off-season storms there's always the notable exception.
" It's not typical for October hurricanes to be terribly potent up here... " is true if by "not typical" you mean "never".


Just sose we're all on the same page ... there is no "typical potent for October", if Sandy hits as a hurricane, it will be unique.

"In the historical best-track database, there have been only 6 hurricanes with surface pressures at or below 960 millibars (lower pressure = stronger cyclone) within 200 nautical miles of the Eastern Seaboard north of Virginia Beach, Va. to have also made a U.S. landfall: Irene (2011), Bob (1991), Gloria (1985), Esther (1961), "Long Island Express" (1938), Unnamed (1869)

Interestingly, not one of these particular landfalling systems occurred in late October. "

More on how rare Sandy is here :
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hur ... 4?pageno=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm hoping it runs aground on and weakens on the outer banks like Irene did, if not moving inland right there then bounces out and hits north east of NYC. (I live in NJ would just as soon pass this one to Boston :) barring that, hitting south Jersey and moving inland would be best. If it weakens to a normal north easter as predicted, I don't care as much.

Thankfully, none of the predictions have it at cat2 or 3 when it hits the NE. The danger is it stalls off the NC coast and gathers power there before proceeding north, or really picks up speed and doesn't have time to go down to a tropical storm before it hits. Faster speed IS typical of the few hurricanes that make it this far north, if they're slow moving, the colder temps chill them out. The Long Island Express was moving so fast, it was still a "hurricane" with hurricane force winds when it made it to Canada.

Snow in October is always bad, leaves on trees with ice and snow = downed branches and power outages. We had more Home Owner insurance claims from last years Halloween snow storm than we had from Irene in many NE states.

I'm currently staying 15 miles from the Jersey shore. I've got a jeep that will be fully gased, 10 gallons of water, 20,000 calories in non perishable food all in the jeep already, the jeep BOB and my normal BOB / camp gear. Evac if needed, is pretty easy "go west". If it looks bad, Parents house is stocked 4 hours north in upstate NY, if it looks really bad, I'll make a hotel reservation in Buffalo Monday morning and just keep going west. :)

GL NE, let's hope for a good week. :)
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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by Elrikk » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:56 pm

Um...if you look on the lates forecast map for where its gonna hit...the L is on my freaking house.

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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by 74 or more » Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:40 am

I live right outside DC so i'm going to be right in the middle of it. I'm leaving work early today to stock up on food, water, and batteries, among other things. I have a few oil lamps around the house that are good and full. Im also storing my bike in my Dad's garage for a few days.

I'd like to know what other people who are going to get hit by Sandy are doing to prepair. Even if your not going to get hit, what would you be doing?
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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by NamelessStain » Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:54 am

My family is in PA. I've talked to my brother and he's ready. He used to live in Myrtle Beach and has been through some smaller hurricanes. He knows what to expect.

The real issue with hurricanes in upper mid Atlantic area is they just don't have the same infrastructure. It gets messy REAL quick due to flash floods and roads getting washed out.
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Re: Hurricane Sandy - the next "perfect storm"?

Post by angelofwar » Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:54 am

Trying to finish my wood shed (at least get the roof shingled) before the rain starts.

This will be my first real time to "test" my preps since I went "hard-core" into the survival mentality.

Me and the wife were talking about it last night, and jokingly said "Oh-no! A big storm! We've got to get prepared!...wait...no we don't...we already are!"

We don't have to buy ANYTHING! (we'll..,a generator is on the list, but it's not NEEDED).

Water: Check; 28 + Gallons, PLUS, I just got my Katadyn hikerpump.
Light: Oh-yeah...those who have seen my flashlight collection and battery stock know what I'm talking about
Fuel: Propane 8 Mini Bottles and 2 larger tanks (that we're just refilled); Lamp-Oil for lamps.
Food: (not requiring refrigeration) Check
Means to cook food: Check (3 Propane stoves, 1 butane stove, and various "pocket" stoves
Heat: Check (Coleman Cataylic Heater), Candles out the wazoo, USGI Wool Blankets, Oil-Lamps, heater pads.
Solar (to top off/recharge electronics/batteries); Check
Battery Banks (large cap. batteries to recharge electronics if solar becomes not an option); check.

Now, we rarely lose power since we have under ground lines, and we're not in the direct path, but I'm sure we'll get plenty of rain. Anyways, the main reason I posted, is, it's SUPER nice to not have to go buy ANYTHING...and to know yer already ready :D
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