Coming Hyper Inflation

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Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by PistolPete » Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:07 pm

I wanted to start a thread to discuss how to best prepare for significant currency devaluation which looks to be imminent in the US. For those that may have missed it there are a few things driving this.

First, the federal government has been spending like drunken sailors. The Federal Reserve created 35% of all the dollars in existence in the first 10 months of this year. Add to that the 900 billion stimulus the house just added and it's going to be even worse. For reference, the Fed created as many dollars between Jan and Oct as they did between 1975 and 2014. More dollars in circulation without GDP growth to back it up = every dollar is worth less. This is what governments do in the final days before hyper inflation sets in. For a pretty picture, look at the M1 Report from the St Louis Fed:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1

Now that's a hockey stick!

As well, we have one of the old money financial firms, Morgan Stanley, suggesting Bitcoin could replace the US Dollar as the worlds reserve currency. That's freaking huge. All of the big firms that shit talked crypto currency a few years ago are coming around to the idea. This means people are losing faith in the US Dollar, and since faith is the only thing backing it, that's going to have a direct effect on it's value moving forward.

We are lucky in that we can see this disaster coming, since it's happening slowly right now. But if you look at other countries that have experienced hyper inflation it happens slowly at first, then all at once. The government response to covid has more people on the dole, which means when prices go up their income doesn't. This has the potential to get really ugly all the sudden.

Personally I've been getting out of American dollars for a few years- diverting my investments to precious metals and crypto. If I was smarter I'd have bought a plot of land last year as well, but apparently I like car payments more......

What's the best strategy to ride out this disaster?
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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by tony d tiger » Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm

The best option is the line item veto.
Empower the Chief Executive (aka the Prez) to cut the pork from these huge omni-bills.
Congress critters endow their favorite causes at the cost of the citizenry.
If the Prez could sign a bill with red line authority - it would remove the "plausible deniability" of saying it was necessary compromise.

As to the question of "where do I stick my money" the answer is Vanguard VSTAX.
https://jlcollinsnh.com :awesome:
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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by raptor2 » Tue Dec 22, 2020 4:20 pm

PistolPete wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:07 pm
As well, we have one of the old money financial firms, Morgan Stanley, suggesting Bitcoin could replace the US Dollar as the worlds reserve currency. That's freaking huge. All of the big firms that shit talked crypto currency a few years ago are coming around to the idea. This means people are losing faith in the US Dollar, and since faith is the only thing backing it, that's going to have a direct effect on it's value moving forward.

We are lucky in that we can see this disaster coming, since it's happening slowly right now. But if you look at other countries that have experienced hyper inflation it happens slowly at first, then all at once. The government response to covid has more people on the dole, which means when prices go up their income doesn't. This has the potential to get really ugly all the sudden.

Personally I've been getting out of American dollars for a few years- diverting my investments to precious metals and crypto. If I was smarter I'd have bought a plot of land last year as well, but apparently I like car payments more......

What's the best strategy to ride out this disaster?


Ok a few assumptions:

Hyper inflation to me is 15% APR or higher
Excess inflation is 6% to 15%
Normal Inflation is 2% to 5% APR

In 1980 the inflation rate was 13.5% the highest since 1947.
https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflat ... 0?amount=1

Also the CPI measurement of inflation has changed since the 1980s. The headline inflation you will see quoted frequently does not include food and energy. It likewise assumes nebulous items like productivity. Caveat Emptor.

Hyper inflation can lead to a currency collapse but that does not have to occur. OTH a currency collapse always results in hyper inflation.

The strategy for a currency collapse is always to the extent possible not have any sizable amount of that currency. Do what you gotta do to have things that are in demand or other currencies. If this occurs with the USD things will get very ugly very quickly worldwide. For instance you would be better off being paid in bread and canned goods than in that currency. You would want to get paid daily and go buy food ASAP with the money.

Hyper inflation likewise is devastating to anyone with that currency. The strategy likewise is similar but not desperate.

That said lets look at the 1970's and 1980's when inflation first started to really hurt people. There are lessons to learn there.
Gas prices when from $.26/ gallon up to a $1.00+/ gallon in a couple of years. Homes prices, rent, utilities, food, transportation all likewise saw hockey stick price increases. If your income was fixed you were very quickly feeling a lot of pain.

What worked well then was:
Income producing property (assuming it had cost escalations or CPI increases built into the lease) either commercial or residential. You of course needed tenants who could pay the rent. Residential leases frequently last only a year so rent increases are still possible without escalation or CPI.

Gold & precious metals were also available and as you can see kinda sorta provided a hedge but I say kinda sorta because the price increases were driven more by speculation and not sustained. If you bought gold at $2,180 in Feb 1980 you still have not made a profit 40 years later. As for silver just look up the Hunt Brothers.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/histor ... year-chart

The stock market was the other place to hedge against inflation. It unlike gold has sustained the rise. I am not saying it has not been volatile (it has and how!) that said over a 40 year term it has sustained the growth in value and in general when looking at the S&P 500 index it has retained its value.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/histor ... year-chart

All of this great but past performance does not guarantee future performance.

So here is my $.04 (due to inflation).

1. If you can find and acquire income producing property,(farm property, commercial property, rental units) with quality tenants and long term leases with CPI and/or triple net terms AND have the skill set to manage them, these will be relative stable. There are few other caveats but if you have the described skill I mentioned you do not need me to explain them and if you need to ask then this is not likely to work well for you. (see my comments about debt below).

2. Cryptocurrencies can be an acceptable alternate currency. That said they are very volatile and I view them being rather like gold in the 80's. They will be a kinda sorta hedge.

3. Gold/PM. These have all of the volatility issues it had in the 80's coupled with unfavorable tax treatment of gains and unlike crypto not easy to convert to cash for everyday uses.

4.Stocks are still a good bet but again like item 1 unless you have the skill set to deal with them yourself you are better off limiting your exposure here to simple index funds and ETFS. (note if you had purchased $1,000 in 1980 in a simple S&P 500 (assuming one existed) this would have exceeded the rate of inflation in all by 10 of the 40 years.) Stocks of foreign companies can also be purchased which further diversifies currency holdings.

5. You can buy foreign currency and store it under your mattress. I suggest that you look at Swiss Francs if you do this.

6.Debt. This is to many people a 4 letter word. However, debt is tool. I am NOT talking about credit card debt @25% apr but rather long term fixed interest debt. Lets talk about in relation ship to item #1. In this case it is possible to find long term (15 to 30 year) debt at 2.75% and below APR. Commercial loans will have higher % rates and shorter terms with a balloon payment. That aside if you have USD denominated debt and say 13.5% inflation every dollar of that debt loses 13.5% each year. Long term debt at interest rates lower than the rate of inflation becomes a hedge against inflation. You do have to pay it back but you pay it back in deflated value USD. Easy concept right?

This is where it get difficult though. You have to have the cash flow to pay the debt service. You also do not want to use that debt to go buy depreciating assets like cars or vacations... real estate in Detroit, MI. You have to use the debt proceeds to buy appreciating assets preferably with a cash flow.

That is where item #1 comes into play. You could also potentially buy items 2 through 5 with it but item 1 is the ideal platform to obtain and utilize debt as an inflation hedge. If you buy real estate with cash flow you can leverage the RE with debt to the extent that the cash flows covers debt service (& tax, ins, etc.).

I used RE as an example but this can be done with other assets. The key takeaway is that fixed debt devalues by the inflation rate.

7. Credit cards. In a high or hyperinflation environment paying by credit card is very sensible. In a hyperinflation environment you would max out the credit card each payment cycle ASAP, wait until the last minute to pay the debt and then restart the cycle...assuming of course the CC company accepted your currency for payment.
Duco Ergo Sum


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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by SCBrian » Tue Dec 22, 2020 5:21 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 4:20 pm
:words: :words:
I swear to FSM, you need to have a AMA or a thread where you allow ZS'ers to ask you financial type questions.... lol
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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by boskone » Tue Dec 22, 2020 5:46 pm

tony d tiger wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm
The best option is the line item veto.
Empower the Chief Executive (aka the Prez) to cut the pork from these huge omni-bills.
Congress critters endow their favorite causes at the cost of the citizenry.
If the Prez could sign a bill with red line authority - it would remove the "plausible deniability" of saying it was necessary compromise.

As to the question of "where do I stick my money" the answer is Vanguard VSTAX.
https://jlcollinsnh.com :awesome:
A line-item veto would be a pretty terrible idea, because it would eliminate compromise. The non-presidential party would never have any reason to do anything but kill every bill they could if it didn't align 100% with their views.

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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by tony d tiger » Tue Dec 22, 2020 6:06 pm

boskone wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 5:46 pm
tony d tiger wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:47 pm
The best option is the line item veto.
Empower the Chief Executive (aka the Prez) to cut the pork from these huge omni-bills.
Congress critters endow their favorite causes at the cost of the citizenry.
If the Prez could sign a bill with red line authority - it would remove the "plausible deniability" of saying it was necessary compromise.

As to the question of "where do I stick my money" the answer is Vanguard VSTAX.
https://jlcollinsnh.com :awesome:
A line-item veto would be a pretty terrible idea, because it would eliminate compromise. The non-presidential party would never have any reason to do anything but kill every bill they could if it didn't align 100% with their views.
But we can agree that index funds are a pretty wonderful idea, right? :mrgreen: cool.

While I think a line item veto would force the pork out of omnibus bills and into a more manageable single agenda x bill (as opposed to the ACA or this new wonder being sent to the President for signature); you raise a valid point about stubborn pigheaded congress-critters.
Can't say that would result in their constituents tossing them out on the street since that seems to be a problem already...
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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by raptor2 » Wed Dec 23, 2020 1:19 pm

SCBrian wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 5:21 pm
raptor2 wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 4:20 pm
:words: :words:
I swear to FSM, you need to have a AMA or a thread where you allow ZS'ers to ask you financial type questions.... lol
I have one...it is the located at the PM button.

I left out one other inflation hedge which does work to some extent. I say to some extent because it tracks the official CPI rate which tends to be lower than reality for food and energy.

This is good article on the subject.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/b ... -bonds.asp
In the United States, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and inflation-indexed savings bonds (I-Bonds) are tied to the value of the U.S. CPI and sold by the U.S. Treasury.1 In the United Kingdom, inflation-linked gilts are issued by the U.K. Debt Management Office and linked to that country's retail price index (RPI).2 The Bank of Canada issues that nation's real return bonds


Of course the problem with bonds in an inflationary environment is that they are debt to someone and if you recall debt loses value at a rate equal to the real inflation rate. These compensate for that but in a manner that results in taxable consequences at least in the US. That and in a currency collapse these are denominated in USD and thus will act like the USD.
tony d tiger wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 6:06 pm
boskone wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 5:46 pm
...(snip)..
As to the question of "where do I stick my money" the answer is Vanguard VSTAX.
https://jlcollinsnh.com :awesome:
But we can agree that index funds are a pretty wonderful idea, right? :mrgreen: cool.
The following is NOT investment advice and simply my opinion. Caveat Emptor.YMMV

First point I use several self service brokerage services. Of these entities I really like Vanguard. (www.vanguard.com). The site does have limits like no after hours trading and restrictions on leveraged ETF funds but for most plain vanilla trading it is fine. The site also offers no cost access to every Vanguard Fund. IMO vanguard offers many high quality and low cost funds/ETS that meet most needs. Again Caveat Emptor.YMMV.

Second point.
Broad mutual funds like VSTAX are an excellent way to get stock market exposure without exposing yourself to the risk of one company's risk. It still exposes you to the volatility of the market but it does reduce the risk of making a bad stock pick. There are several mutual funds as well as ETFs (read up on the difference it is too long for me to explain pros and cons of each) that do this. For instance the ETF version of VSTAX is VTI.
However index funds are IMO are a great way to get broad stock market exposure quickly and generally cheaper than doing it your self.
Some ETFs to look at:
VYM
VTI
SPY
SPYD

Third point.
There are many high quality choices in bond funds and ETFs. Note none of these were spared in the March 2020 route. They recovered for the most part but you do have to watch these and be prepared to deal with unusual events. These are not like holding bonds directly, in that with a bond assuming the entity does not go bankrupt you will get paid your principal at maturity. Your return and cash flow are locked in at purchase. You can buy and forget high quality bonds. You cannot do that with the following funds.

Tax free Munis:
MHD
MUI
VWLUX
VWALX

Taxable bonds:
VAIPX (this BTW is an inflation indexed bond fund)
VWEAX
VCIT
VCSH
IGIB
IGSB

Note again to be clear I am not recommending these; do your own due diligence, Caveat Emptor, YMMV...no running with scissors permitted here.


Edited to add:
Some short term comfort for those investing in Blackrock and Vanguard bond funds. Granted this 6 months old but it has not stopped.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal- ... 06075.html
What is the Fed buying exactly?
The Fed is bucketing its purchases into two categories: corporate bond ETFs and individual corporate bonds themselves.

Corporate bond ETFs are baskets of corporate debt bundled together by issuers like Blackrock or Vanguard, and sold to investors. There are several types of corporate bond ETFs that target different maturities (i.e. short-term or long-term) or credit quality (i.e. investment grade or junk-rated). As of June 16, the Fed had purchased about $6.8 billion across 16 different ETFs, the bulk of which in Blackrock’s LQD and Vanguard’s VCSH, and VCIT.
Note typos fixed
Duco Ergo Sum


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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Dec 23, 2020 2:29 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Wed Dec 23, 2020 1:19 pm
SCBrian wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 5:21 pm
raptor2 wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 4:20 pm
:words: :words:
I swear to FSM, you need to have a AMA or a thread where you allow ZS'ers to ask you financial type questions.... lol
I have one...it is the located at the PM button.

I left out one other inflation hedge which does work to some extent. I say to some extent because it tracks the official CPI rate which tends to be lower than reality for food and energy.

This is good article on the subject.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/b ... -bonds.asp
In the United States, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and inflation-indexed savings bonds (I-Bonds) are tied to the value of the U.S. CPI and sold by the U.S. Treasury.1 In the United Kingdom, inflation-linked gilts are issued by the U.K. Debt Management Office and linked to that country's retail price index (RPI).2 The Bank of Canada issues that nation's real return bonds


Of course the problem with bonds in an inflationary environment is that they are debt to someone and if you recall debt loses value at a rate equal to the real inflation rate. These compensate for that but in a manner that results in taxable consequences at least in the US. That and in a currency collapse these are denominated in USD and thus will act like the USD.
tony d tiger wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 6:06 pm
boskone wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 5:46 pm
...(snip)..
As to the question of "where do I stick my money" the answer is Vanguard VSTAX.
https://jlcollinsnh.com :awesome:
But we can agree that index funds are a pretty wonderful idea, right? :mrgreen: cool.
The following is NOT investment advice and simple my opinion. Caveat Emptor.YMMV

First point I use several self service brokerage services. Of these entities I really like Vanguard. (www.vanguard.com). The site does have limits like no after hours trading and restrictions on leveraged ETF funds but for most plain vanilla trading it is fine. The site also offers no cost access to every Vanguard Fund. IMO vanguard offers many high quality and low cost funds/ETS that meet most needs. Again Caveat Emptor.YMMV.

Second point.
Broad mutual funds like VSTAX are an excellent way to get stock market exposure without exposing yourself to the risk of one company's risk. It still exposes you to the volatility of the market but it does reduce the risk of making a bad stock pick. There are several mutual funds as well as ETFs (read up on the difference it is too long for me to explain pros and cons of each) that do this. For instance the ETF version of VSTAX is VTI.
However index funds are IMO are a great way to get broad stock market exposure quickly and generally cheaper than doing it your self.
Some ETFs to look at:
VYM
VTI
SPY
SPD

Third point.
There are many high quality choices in bond funds and ETFs. Note none of these were spared in the March 2020 route. They recovered for the most part but you do have to watch these and be prepared to deal with unusual events. These are not like holding bonds directly, in that with a bond assuming the entity does not go bankrupt you will get paid your principal at maturity. Your return and cash flow are locked in at purchase. You can buy and forget high quality bonds. You cannot do that with the following funds.

Tax free Munis:
MHD
MUI
VWLUX
VWALX

Taxable bonds:
VAIPX (this BTW is an inflation indexed bond fund)
VWEAX
VCIT
VCSH
IGIB
IGSB

Note again to be clear I am not recommending these; do your own due diligence, Caveat Emptor, YMMV...no running with scissors permitted here.


Edited to add:
Some short term comfort for those investing in Blackrock and Vanguard bond funds. Granted this 6 months old but it has not stopped.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal- ... 06075.html
What is the Fed buying exactly?
The Fed is bucketing its purchases into two categories: corporate bond ETFs and individual corporate bonds themselves.

Corporate bond ETFs are baskets of corporate debt bundled together by issuers like Blackrock or Vanguard, and sold to investors. There are several types of corporate bond ETFs that target different maturities (i.e. short-term or long-term) or credit quality (i.e. investment grade or junk-rated). As of June 16, the Fed had purchased about $6.8 billion across 16 different ETFs, the bulk of which in Blackrock’s LQD and Vanguard’s VCSH, and VCIT.
How much to have others deal with all this shit for you (on behalf of the investor)?

I mean :clownshoes:

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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by tony d tiger » Wed Dec 23, 2020 3:05 pm

^^ which is the beauty and appeal of index funds, to me. ^^ :awesome:

"Buy and Hold" ...or as the rotisserie guy used to say "set it, and forget it." :rofl: :clap:
Tony D Tiger

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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by raptor2 » Wed Dec 23, 2020 3:41 pm

MPMalloy wrote:
Wed Dec 23, 2020 2:29 pm
How much to have others deal with all this shit for you (on behalf of the investor)?

I mean :clownshoes:
I cannot say this loudly enough or often enough.

Investing is not difficult to understand. If you have the urge to give the keys to someone because you do not understand investing in a certain area.
You should NOT be investing in that area until you get comfortable with doing it yourself.

I have dealt with a wide variety of fund managers, both active (they have the keys and steering wheel) and passive (they take orders) and those in between. The results boil down to fact that they get paid their fee (between 1% & 3% or a lot more in some cases) and you take the risk. They typically have no downsides.


That said in answer to your question how much?
Enough other wealth that if you lose your ass due to a poor manager you can still eat for the rest of your life by selling the rest of your assets.
Duco Ergo Sum


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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by boskone » Wed Dec 23, 2020 5:20 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Wed Dec 23, 2020 3:41 pm
MPMalloy wrote:
Wed Dec 23, 2020 2:29 pm
How much to have others deal with all this shit for you (on behalf of the investor)?

I mean :clownshoes:
I cannot say this loudly enough or often enough.

Investing is not difficult to understand. If you have the urge to give the keys to someone because you do not understand investing in a certain area.
You should NOT be investing in that area until you get comfortable with doing it yourself.

I have dealt with a wide variety of fund managers, both active (they have the keys and steering wheel) and passive (they take orders) and those in between. The results boil down to fact that they get paid their fee (between 1% & 3% or a lot more in some cases) and you take the risk. They typically have no downsides.


That said in answer to your question how much?
Enough other wealth that if you lose your ass due to a poor manager you can still eat for the rest of your life by selling the rest of your assets.
I can't offer a real recommendation, but there are stock simulators out there. E.g. you act like you're buying and selling stock, and they spit out values based on the real-world market.

Seems like something that would be a useful education and comfort tool, with minimal personal risk.

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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by raptor2 » Wed Dec 23, 2020 7:01 pm

boskone wrote:
Wed Dec 23, 2020 5:20 pm
raptor2 wrote:
Wed Dec 23, 2020 3:41 pm
MPMalloy wrote:
Wed Dec 23, 2020 2:29 pm
How much to have others deal with all this shit for you (on behalf of the investor)?

I mean :clownshoes:
I cannot say this loudly enough or often enough.

Investing is not difficult to understand. If you have the urge to give the keys to someone because you do not understand investing in a certain area.
You should NOT be investing in that area until you get comfortable with doing it yourself.

I have dealt with a wide variety of fund managers, both active (they have the keys and steering wheel) and passive (they take orders) and those in between. The results boil down to fact that they get paid their fee (between 1% & 3% or a lot more in some cases) and you take the risk. They typically have no downsides.


That said in answer to your question how much?
Enough other wealth that if you lose your ass due to a poor manager you can still eat for the rest of your life by selling the rest of your assets.
I can't offer a real recommendation, but there are stock simulators out there. E.g. you act like you're buying and selling stock, and they spit out values based on the real-world market.

Seems like something that would be a useful education and comfort tool, with minimal personal risk.
Investing (ignoring of course options and more exotic leveraged and contrived transactions) is simple math. You buy for one price sell for another the difference is profit or loss.

You can go these two sites and construct a watch list or better yet a mock portfolio. You can also look up stock symbols there.

Enter a stock symbol, put in the date and buy price put in 1 share of stock and you can track it easily. Kinda like fantasy football albeit with a realistic goal of knowledge.
https://www.google.com/finance
https://finance.yahoo.com/portfolios

Seeking alpha is also a potentially useful site. Do not use it for investing research but it does have good data charts that are easy to use.
https://seekingalpha.com/
Duco Ergo Sum


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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Dec 23, 2020 7:18 pm

Yeah, I was just curious about it. This is why Mr. Bogle brought forth Index Funds. He really did bring investing to the masses.

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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by CorpsmanUp » Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:41 pm

I have been steadily stacking crypto currency since 2016ish.

Sold some and made some money in 2017.

Kept stacking.

If things continue to play like they are now I have a real chance to pay off my mortgage and retire.

It seems like the perfect storm for crypto right now. Money printing machine goes brrrrrrr. With the democrats in power mulit trillion dollar relief packages are imminent.

Big money has been looking for a hedge against inflation.

I think it's going to get wild.

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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by raptor2 » Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:37 pm

Crypto is already wild. Since December 20, 202 the action in XRP has been amazing.

The cryptos while more stable'ish have been doing very well. I am surprised that there is not an EFT that buys a pool of cryoto for trade.

BTW coinbase.com is a site that I use for cryoto.
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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by absinthe beginner » Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:34 pm

The Federal Reserve has since 2008 created more than $12 trillion in "stimulus" out of thin air and pumped it into the financial system, blowing enormous asset bubbles. However, with their "Printer go BRRRRRRR" they have also undermined public faith and confidence in the currency. The fast-growing r/Wallstreetsilver is evidence of a growing distrust in the dollar, as many (myself included) fear a dollar collapse due to the insane public and private debt levels that are piling up and the Fed's endless "quantitative easing." What happens if we have a dollar collapse due to this debasement of the currency? What happens if base producers start demanding tangible assets, i.e. silver or gold, in exchange for essential goods and services?

https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/

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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by boskone » Tue Feb 23, 2021 12:23 am

I'm about tempted to put some money in farmed goods. At some point, people are going to realize that they're actually paying more than $5/loaf for bread, but the extra costs have been hidden.

In light of the willingness of people to pay $10-15-20 for a 2-hour movie, the phrase "panem et circenses" is coming increasingly to mind.

(And don't even get me started on the cost of a decent used pickup these days. :shock:)

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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by Vicarious_Lee » Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:45 am

PistolPete wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:07 pm

First, the federal government has been spending like drunken sailors.
False. Drunken sailors spend their own money, not other people's. :|
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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by MPMalloy » Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:16 am

Vicarious_Lee wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:45 am
PistolPete wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:07 pm
First, the federal government has been spending like drunken sailors.
False. Drunken sailors spend their own money, not other people's. :|
I goota agree w/VLee :|

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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by goofygurl » Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:11 pm

Vicarious_Lee wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:45 am
PistolPete wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:07 pm

First, the federal government has been spending like drunken sailors.
False. Drunken sailors spend their own money, not other people's. :|
I have nothing to contribute to this post other than to gawk and stare at V Lee b/c I haven't seen him in years.... :ooh:

(I'm a new investment baby and still trying to navigate waters except with my IRA.)

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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by goofygurl » Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:20 pm

boskone wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 12:23 am
I'm about tempted to put some money in farmed goods. At some point, people are going to realize that they're actually paying more than $5/loaf for bread, but the extra costs have been hidden.

In light of the willingness of people to pay $10-15-20 for a 2-hour movie, the phrase "panem et circenses" is coming increasingly to mind.

(And don't even get me started on the cost of a decent used pickup these days. :shock:)
This I can comment on. Have you priced a loaf of gluten free bread? They're $6.50 at Albertsons and Kroger. I have a side hustle where I make certain beauty/holistic health supplies and certain foods at local farmers markets. Homemade breads (including GF), jams, dilly beans for example.

People pay OUTRAGEOUS prices for things that are homemade. I keep my prices as low as possible to still make a profit but the amount of money that someone is willing to hand over for a jar of jam they could make for a lot cheaper in their own kitchen is ridiculous.

Pint size jar of strawberry jam: $6.25
My cost:
Jar: $0.83
Lid/Ring: $0.15
Berries: $.30 give or take based on $2.98#
Sugar: $0.40 give or take
Pectin: $0.75
Label w/ink to print: $0.15

Cost to make: approx. $2.15 per pint jar.
Profit: $4.10 per jar

and they pay it willingly and buy multiple jars at once. 4 oz jelly jars are priced a bit cheaper but still double what my cost to make them are approx.

The markup on natural deodorant is even worse and my prices are actually set BELOW what other sellers are b/c I feel bad even charging what I do.

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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by raptor2 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:26 pm

goofygurl wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:20 pm
boskone wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 12:23 am
I'm about tempted to put some money in farmed goods. At some point, people are going to realize that they're actually paying more than $5/loaf for bread, but the extra costs have been hidden.

In light of the willingness of people to pay $10-15-20 for a 2-hour movie, the phrase "panem et circenses" is coming increasingly to mind.

(And don't even get me started on the cost of a decent used pickup these days. :shock:)
This I can comment on. Have you priced a loaf of gluten free bread? They're $6.50 at Albertsons and Kroger. I have a side hustle where I make certain beauty/holistic health supplies and certain foods at local farmers markets. Homemade breads (including GF), jams, dilly beans for example.

People pay OUTRAGEOUS prices for things that are homemade. I keep my prices as low as possible to still make a profit but the amount of money that someone is willing to hand over for a jar of jam they could make for a lot cheaper in their own kitchen is ridiculous.

Pint size jar of strawberry jam: $6.25
My cost:
Jar: $0.83
Lid/Ring: $0.15
Berries: $.30 give or take based on $2.98#
Sugar: $0.40 give or take
Pectin: $0.75
Label w/ink to print: $0.15

Cost to make: approx. $2.15 per pint jar.
Profit: $4.10 per jar
Do not forget your time, pride of craftsmanship and considerable skill needed to make this product.
That skill is what results in the margin of $4.10 and IMO the people are getting a bargain for a hand crafted product.
Duco Ergo Sum


raptor2 is the new profile name for raptor.
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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by Vicarious_Lee » Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:29 pm

goofygurl wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:11 pm
Vicarious_Lee wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:45 am
PistolPete wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:07 pm

First, the federal government has been spending like drunken sailors.
False. Drunken sailors spend their own money, not other people's. :|
I have nothing to contribute to this post other than to gawk and stare at V Lee b/c I haven't seen him in years.... :ooh:

(I'm a new investment baby and still trying to navigate waters except with my IRA.)
Up until recently, my life has been a nonstop game of Plants vs Zombies except without plants. I'm just now in a place where I can start thinking about plans and more big-picture things again as it relates to prepping. Also, a couple years ago, after like 6 years on ZS of calling myself a prepper, I went through a phase where, aside from plenty of flashlights for the odd power outage, the ONLY prep I needed was money, and lots of it.

Not guns, not food, not ammo. I put down a lot of zombies using nothing but my income.

So now any "preps" I really think about are all financial related. And guns, I just don't kid myself that that's anything more than a personal hobby at this point.
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Re: Coming Hyper Inflation

Post by goofygurl » Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:23 pm

Vicarious_Lee wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:29 pm
goofygurl wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:11 pm
Vicarious_Lee wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:45 am
PistolPete wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 12:07 pm

First, the federal government has been spending like drunken sailors.
False. Drunken sailors spend their own money, not other people's. :|
I have nothing to contribute to this post other than to gawk and stare at V Lee b/c I haven't seen him in years.... :ooh:

(I'm a new investment baby and still trying to navigate waters except with my IRA.)
Up until recently, my life has been a nonstop game of Plants vs Zombies except without plants. I'm just now in a place where I can start thinking about plans and more big-picture things again as it relates to prepping. Also, a couple years ago, after like 6 years on ZS of calling myself a prepper, I went through a phase where, aside from plenty of flashlights for the odd power outage, the ONLY prep I needed was money, and lots of it.

Not guns, not food, not ammo. I put down a lot of zombies using nothing but my income.

So now any "preps" I really think about are all financial related. And guns, I just don't kid myself that that's anything more than a personal hobby at this point.
I think we all go through those phases honestly. Its not any fun to live your life constantly expecting the next big thing.

In any case, it's good to see you alive and kicking.

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