Atlantic tropics....

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woodsghost
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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by woodsghost » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:53 pm

woodsghost wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:56 am
What kind of advice can I give to a non-prepper? I have a buddy who is in the strike zone. He is worried, but primarily worried about losing electricity and losing air conditioning. He is in Atlanta, Georgia and expecting heavy rain. I suggested he fill his gas tank, get 24 hours worth of snacks & food, a cell phone battery bank, and a flashlight and batteries. Anything else? He lives in an apartment and primarily eats fast food. I figure the rest is on the apartment manager?
My friend texted me. He is prepped for this latest hurricane. He went all "Doomsday prepper" (his words) and got a can of tuna, a can of chicken, some bottled water, he filled the gas tank, and got $20 cash just in case he needed something. He looked for a flashlight, but the store did not have one. I advised he remember to charge his phone. His job is giving everyone 2 days off so he knew this one was going to be serious.

......

I'm excited he made these first steps forward and he actually listened to the advice I gave him! And thank you all for the additional advice! I was sure to pass that along earlier, so he has a record in our texts if he wished to refer to it. I might want to make sure he has a means of opening those cans that is not electrically dependent.
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Stercutus
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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by Stercutus » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:13 pm

Upgraded to CAT III, likely will be CAT IV when it hits land.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/us/hurri ... index.html

I don't have to tell anyone that has seen the path but yep, it is going straight to the area that was flooded with the last one.
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by Stercutus » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:45 am

Now a CAT IV. Biggest storm to hit the panhandle in 100 years.
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother


absinthe beginner
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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by absinthe beginner » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:18 am

Woodsghost wrote: My friend texted me. He is prepped for this latest hurricane. He went all "Doomsday prepper" (his words) and got a can of tuna, a can of chicken, some bottled water, he filled the gas tank, and got $20 cash just in case he needed something. He looked for a flashlight, but the store did not have one. I advised he remember to charge his phone. His job is giving everyone 2 days off so he knew this one was going to be serious.

Unfortunately, most people are not going to appreciate the value of prepping unless they find themselves in a dire situation where the consequences of failure to prep are severe enough to ensure they vow to never be caught in that situation again. Especially if wifey rides their ass like Zero to make sure they're better prepared next time around.
Last edited by absinthe beginner on Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:26 am

absinthe beginner wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:18 am
My friend texted me. He is prepped for this latest hurricane. He went all "Doomsday prepper" (his words) and got a can of tuna, a can of chicken, some bottled water, he filled the gas tank, and got $20 cash just in case he needed something. He looked for a flashlight, but the store did not have one. I advised he remember to charge his phone. His job is giving everyone 2 days off so he knew this one was going to be serious.

Unfortunately, most people are not going to appreciate the value of prepping unless they find themselves in a dire situation where the consequences of failure to prep are severe enough to ensure they vow to never be caught in that situation again. Especially if wifey rides their ass like Zero to make sure they're better prepared next time around.
It helps to have proper support. :mrgreen:

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by absinthe beginner » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:22 am

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Flori ... it-Michael

Just hours away from an expected Wednesday afternoon landfall, Hurricane Michael became ever stronger and more organized on Tuesday night over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Michael’s high winds, torrential rain, and very large storm surge were pushing briskly toward the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend region just to the east, the areas in line to experience the worst impacts. Update (2 am EDT Wednesday): Michael has been upgraded to Category 4 strength as of 2 am EDT, with top sustained winds of 130 mph. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall.

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by absinthe beginner » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:30 am

MPMalloy said: t helps to have proper support.

For years now I've been gifting my siblings, nephews, and neices Fenix LD22 flashlights and CL25R camping lanterns (my fav), beeswax candles, German Feuerhand lanterns & fuel, camping stoves, Anker battery packs, etc. to bolster their preparedness. Despite my incessant urging over the years, not a one of them has lifted a finger to add to their own stocks, except my my sister who bought a case of MREs and water (they live in Los Angeles, a proven earthquake and riot zone). My BiL also bought a Hawk pump shotgun at my urging, before which he didn't own any firearms. So I'm almost at the point of hoping they have to experience some emergency severe enough to be a teachable moment. I'm done trying to lead the horse to water.

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by absinthe beginner » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:09 am

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10- ... ces-record

Update (9 am ET): Hurricane Michael continued to strengthen Wednesday morning, as the Category 4 storm's wind speed increased to 145 mph. The storm is now poised to be the strongest to hit the US in 14 years, boasting a life threatening storm surge and the potential to cause $16 billion in damages.

The storm is now roughly 90 miles southwest of Panama City and is heading north at 13 miles per hour, according to the NHC's latest update. The storm's outer bands are already battering the coastal town of Apalachicola with winds of nearly 50 mph.

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by JayceSlayn » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:44 am

JayceSlayn wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:47 pm
The intensity guidance seems to show that Michael will most likely hit as a Cat 1, maybe Cat 2, small chance as a Cat 3.
I'd like to revisit this statement from just a few days ago. The possibility of landing as a Cat 4 storm was not predicted by any of the models I saw (and certainly not the most-likely predicted by the group average) at the time this statement was written. A good reminder that being overly-cautious can be a good quality. Also a good reminder that some of these storms have rapidly intensified (sometimes unpredictably) in the last day or so before making landfall. A counterpoint would be Florence 2018, which declined sharply in wind intensity just before landfall versus what they'd expected.

I guess the main point is: weather science is hard, our models and data are imperfect, so plan for the worst and hope for the best.
Rahul Telang wrote:If you don’t have a plan in place, you will find different ways to screw it up
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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by Stercutus » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:10 pm

Now a baby CAT V. Wind Speed is 155MPH, 156 makes a CAT V.
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:54 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:10 pm
Now a baby CAT V. Wind Speed is 155MPH, 156 makes a CAT V.
Live Coverage from CBS News



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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by Stercutus » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:36 pm

Word out of Mexico Beach is disturbing. Several hundred people stayed behind in their homes and the whole town was leveled.
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by raptor » Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:31 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:36 pm
Word out of Mexico Beach is disturbing. Several hundred people stayed behind in their homes and the whole town was leveled.
I saw that and my comment is that anyone who stays for a Cat 3 + storm is crazy.

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flybynight
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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by flybynight » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:12 pm

about as bad as one can imagine

As of now I bet you got me wrong

John Titor was right

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:47 pm

raptor wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:31 pm
Stercutus wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:36 pm
Word out of Mexico Beach is disturbing. Several hundred people stayed behind in their homes and the whole town was leveled.
I saw that and my comment is that anyone who stays for a Cat 3 + storm is crazy.
Raptor: You documented your experiences well (and you have a bad-ass T-shirt). Seriously, props. :D

What sorts of structures withstand hurricanes?

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by raptor » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:36 pm

Reinforced concrete structures like buildings and especially medium rise parking garages. The problem Mexico Beach had was the storm surge. That is far more devastating than the wind. If you have high wind and storm surge you have no win situation. The structure may survive but you will drown inside.

If you look for Ft Massachusetts on Ship Island it has survived many hurricanes since it was built in the 1860s. In fact 2 park rangers rode out Hurricane Camille inside the Fort. They did ok but at one point they were chest deep in water in the highest part of the fort. About 20 feet above MSL.

No one stayed for Katrina at the fort but it was completely submerged by that storm. Structures are
resilient people a lot less so.

I evacuated for Katrina I am not foolish.

It was the storm surge that hit NOLA and the MS Gulf Coast the hardest.

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by Stercutus » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:03 pm

While some reinforced concrete structures will indeed withstand a CAT V I noticed after Andrew on Homestead AFB that those same structures were vulnerable to having every window broken, all the contents inside the building picked up and banged around the rooms against whatever was inside the rooms and pretty much destroying everything inside. So not much of a safe haven.


I did see one reinforced structure collapse. At the rail museum a huge concrete tower broke in half and collapsed on top of a large steel building holding the trains. The weight of the tower caused the roof to collapse down on to the trains. The size of the tower was massive. It took actual years to get that mess cleaned up.
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother


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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by JayceSlayn » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:54 am

TS Michael hit my area starting mid-morning and ending mid-afternoon yesterday. This storm landed in FL, was in NC 24 hours later, and the next coast 12 hours after that - it moved very quickly. As was predicted: it maintained tropical storm force winds all the way across the continent - I am not an expert, but I think that is something exceptional.

As far as actual damage to my area: we got a lot more damage from Michael than Florence, despite it landing a few hundred miles further away and lasting almost a third as long. Some big trees were felled around the city, and my wife reported that some areas around the hospital (and some hospital offices) were flooded for a while. We lost power for a little over 3 hours (1/3 of the customers in nearby counties were out of power during the worst), and received another 4.5 inches of rain in 10 hours. Again, my neighborhood suffered relatively little damage: I noticed one neighbor's fence torn apart (it was in bad shape to begin with), other neighbors had to do some emergency clearing of debris to drain a spontaneous lake beside their house, but no other issues I've seen/heard.

The destruction closer to landfall is impressive (in a terrifying way). I've heard of deaths attributed to the storm all along its path, from FL to VA. I think the only good news is that this storm moved out so fast that it left relatively less rain, and that the recovery work could start so soon - maybe that will lead to fewer people getting stranded and dying in flood waters etc.
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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by absinthe beginner » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:25 am

"An Atomic Bomb Has Hit Our City": 'Apocalyptic' Post-Michael Scenes From Mexico Beach

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10- ... xico-beach

If the nine-foot storm surge didn't get them, the 150+ mph winds did.

As Michael, the third-most-powerful hurricane to ever make landfall in the Continental US, prepares to make its exit into the Atlantic Ocean on Friday, many residents of the Florida panhandle are still in shock as those who fled try to return, and those who stayed recount watching in abject horror as their community was leveled by flood waters and wind during one of the most aggressive storms in US history. In interviews with reporters who managed the difficult journey to Mexico Beach to survey the damage, many residents struggled to choke back tears as they described how they watched in abject horror as the water and wind ripped homes from their foundations. Out of the chaos, many quickly realized that Florida Gov. Rick Scott's prophesy of "unimaginable devastation" had come to pass.

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Re: Atlantic tropics....

Post by Stercutus » Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:08 pm

Because shit isn't bad enough....

For those needing a plot for a new horror film:
Florida psychiatric hospital "cut off" by Michael
State officials say Hurricane Michael left Florida's largest psychiatric hospital "entirely cut off."
A spokesman with the Florida Department of Children and Families says Florida State Hospital in Chattahoochee has been running on emergency generators. A helicopter dropped water and food at the facility on Thursday after a tree downed during the storm caused a water line to break.
Landlines and cellphones are also down at the hospital, which has nearly 1,000 residents and more than 300 staff. Staff are using emergency radios to stay in contact with first responders.
Many roads in and around the facility are blocked, but 50 staff from two other state mental health facilities are being brought in to assist.
Patients at the facility have been committed involuntarily either through civil or criminal cases.
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/hurri ... e-updates/
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother

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