Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

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Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by doitnstyle1 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:02 am

Interesting subject to randomly find in the news today. Scientific models being designed to model zombie apocalypse. I wonder if they are taking into consideration all the fine members of ZombieSquad! :crazy:


http://www.livescience.com/57407-zombie ... -days.html

A mathematical model, done tongue-in-cheek, reveals zombies, if left unchecked, could wipe out humanity within 100 days.
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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by ManInBlack316 » Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:04 pm

"We have also not included the possibility for the humans to kill the zombies," they wrote.

But never fear: In a follow-up paper, the students did just that. They extended the zombie life span to one year in order to up the challenge a bit, but also gave each human a 10 percent chance of killing a zombie each day. They also accounted for human reproduction, assuming reproductive-age women would be able to have a baby once every three years.

These assumptions provided some hope for humanity. Under this model, the human population rapidly dropped off to a few hundred again. However, the zombies died off after 1,000 days, under this model; 10,000 days after the beginning of the epidemic, the human population would start to recover again, the students found.
Leaving out the possibility for humans to kill zombies seems like a big gap to me. Between the armed forces around the globe, and well armed civilians (provided they actually practice with those arms), I think we'd face a much better chance. I mean heck, if we take an AR with a 30 round mag and account for a 20% kill rate that's six zombies down by one person with one mag, better training/positioning hopefully increases that rate and most should have access to more than one mag.


Hmm, a range in my state is having a zombie shoot this year, maybe I should start practicing. :clap:

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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by fred.greek » Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:42 pm

Further re zombies:

http://www.johnringo.net/TheLibrary/Bla ... lypse.aspx

The author at the link presents the argument that genetic manipulation ability is developing quickly and extensively, and becoming “cheap” and simple to do, with the probability that soon it will be possible for someone “in their basement” to create new virus and bacteria. Envision that someone being a zombie fan, who for fun (or whatever) creates a pathogen to do essentially what fictional zombie infections do.

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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by ManInBlack316 » Sat Jan 07, 2017 6:35 pm

fred.greek wrote:Further re zombies:

http://www.johnringo.net/TheLibrary/Bla ... lypse.aspx

The author at the link presents the argument that genetic manipulation ability is developing quickly and extensively, and becoming “cheap” and simple to do, with the probability that soon it will be possible for someone “in their basement” to create new virus and bacteria. Envision that someone being a zombie fan, who for fun (or whatever) creates a pathogen to do essentially what fictional zombie infections do.
That is honestly kind of scary.... One thing he left out (although maybe he just didn't care to mention it), never discount the fact that some people are just up to no good. I think the quote goes something like "some people don't want fame, can't be happy with wealth, don't care for family, have no desire for patriotism, some people, some people just want to watch the world burn.". That's who I'd see creating the "zombie" virus and dooming all of us....








I guess I need to start practicing using that M7 bayonet I have...

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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by flybynight » Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:02 pm

ManInBlack316 wrote:
"We have also not included the possibility for the humans to kill the zombies," they wrote.

But never fear: In a follow-up paper, the students did just that. They extended the zombie life span to one year in order to up the challenge a bit, but also gave each human a 10 percent chance of killing a zombie each day. They also accounted for human reproduction, assuming reproductive-age women would be able to have a baby once every three years.

These assumptions provided some hope for humanity. Under this model, the human population rapidly dropped off to a few hundred again. However, the zombies died off after 1,000 days, under this model; 10,000 days after the beginning of the epidemic, the human population would start to recover again, the students found.
Leaving out the possibility for humans to kill zombies seems like a big gap to me. Between the armed forces around the globe, and well armed civilians (provided they actually practice with those arms), I think we'd face a much better chance. I mean heck, if we take an AR with a 30 round mag and account for a 20% kill rate that's six zombies down by one person with one mag, better training/positioning hopefully increases that rate and most should have access to more than one mag.


Hmm, a range in my state is having a zombie shoot this year, maybe I should start practicing. :clap:
This was from a British point of view. No wonder they have zero to 10 percent chance of the zombies being killed
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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by ineffableone » Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:33 pm

Here is where I have a problem "90 percent success at finding and infecting one human per day" Sure in the out set before people start realizing to hide from zombies. However as soon as it becomes common knowledge there are zombies, that number will drop dramatically. I can't give a solid number, but I would suspect it would drop down to 70-60% pretty much as soon as it became common knowledge there were zombies. People are not that stupid, ok some are, but really even dumb ones know not to go out and get eaten by zombies. The methodology is just wrong. It discount how awareness would change the probability of zombies infecting someone, it discounted the humans fighting back, heck it discounts that once zombies got 1/2 the world population that the survivors would be spread far and wide and would not be easy targets to have 90% chance to be infected, it also discounts there are a lot of people who right now are very very isolated from the rest of humanity (included some tribes with no outside contact) and zombies would not be able to reach them in 100 days. In other words, what ever starting % of a zombie infecting a human, it would have to decrease in probability as humans became aware of the danger and as there is less humans to choose from. With out that factored in, of course the math would have them burn through the population.

I also think humanity's ability to kill zombies in mass is highly underrated. I have pointed out many times, if there really were zombies there are some very handy things we can use to clear the streets of hordes of zombies. My favorite is a mine sweeper. You can mow down zombies in mass in the comfort of a mine proof cab or in some cases remotely pilot the mine sweeper. Or the civilian version being brush clearer. But there is all sorts of other heavy equipment, construction and demolition machines, mining and logging machines, etc.. Another favorite is we all know zombies are attracted to sound right? Well set up a wood chipper in a street and turn it on and go hide in a near by build and watch the fun as zombies feed themselves in making zombie puree.
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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by flybynight » Sun Jan 08, 2017 12:36 am

ineffableone wrote:Here is where I have a problem "90 percent success at finding and infecting one human per day" Sure in the out set before people start realizing to hide from zombies. However as soon as it becomes common knowledge there are zombies, that number will drop dramatically. I can't give a solid number, but I would suspect it would drop down to 70-60% pretty much as soon as it became common knowledge there were zombies. People are not that stupid, ok some are, but really even dumb ones know not to go out and get eaten by zombies. The methodology is just wrong. It discount how awareness would change the probability of zombies infecting someone, it discounted the humans fighting back, heck it discounts that once zombies got 1/2 the world population that the survivors would be spread far and wide and would not be easy targets to have 90% chance to be infected, it also discounts there are a lot of people who right now are very very isolated from the rest of humanity (included some tribes with no outside contact) and zombies would not be able to reach them in 100 days. In other words, what ever starting % of a zombie infecting a human, it would have to decrease in probability as humans became aware of the danger and as there is less humans to choose from. With out that factored in, of course the math would have them burn through the population.

I also think humanity's ability to kill zombies in mass is highly underrated. I have pointed out many times, if there really were zombies there are some very handy things we can use to clear the streets of hordes of zombies. My favorite is a mine sweeper. You can mow down zombies in mass in the comfort of a mine proof cab or in some cases remotely pilot the mine sweeper. Or the civilian version being brush clearer. But there is all sorts of other heavy equipment, construction and demolition machines, mining and logging machines, etc.. Another favorite is we all know zombies are attracted to sound right? Well set up a wood chipper in a street and turn it on and go hide in a near by build and watch the fun as zombies feed themselves in making zombie puree.
yep :clap: on all points. You could also hang a wind chime over a height edge
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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by doitnstyle1 » Sun Jan 08, 2017 1:17 am

Yep. I guess i'll run down to my friendly neighborhood WalMart and pick up a mine sweeper down the mine sweeper isle. There is a plenty of selection there.
You don't take into consideration that there will be some kind of coverup that always happens with some kind of disaster.

Yeah, I'm opening that can of worms. I have personally witnessed that.
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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by flybynight » Sun Jan 08, 2017 1:30 am

doitnstyle1 wrote:Yep. I guess i'll run down to my friendly neighborhood WalMart and pick up a mine sweeper down the mine sweeper isle. There is a plenty of selection there.
You don't take into consideration that there will be some kind of coverup that always happens with some kind of disaster.

Yeah, I'm opening that can of worms. I have personally witnessed that.
The chances of that happening diminish more each day. Ever since everybody got their own personal video recorder/ transmitter.
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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by ineffableone » Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:00 am

doitnstyle1 wrote:Yep. I guess i'll run down to my friendly neighborhood WalMart and pick up a mine sweeper down the mine sweeper isle. There is a plenty of selection there.
You don't take into consideration that there will be some kind of coverup that always happens with some kind of disaster.

Yeah, I'm opening that can of worms. I have personally witnessed that.
I would not expect you or I to personally go pick up a mine sweeper. However in the interest of preserving the nation, I would expect the military to respond to the crisis of zombies roaming the streets. They would have easy access to mine sweepers.

However, us civilians do have an option, brush clearers. Which are pretty much the civilian version of a mine sweeper.

This is a military mine sweeper
Image


This is a civilian brush clearer
Image

You might have noticed I did mention there are other things besides minesweepers right? I even discussed wood chippers.
ineffableone wrote:But there is all sorts of other heavy equipment, construction and demolition machines, mining and logging machines, etc.. Another favorite is we all know zombies are attracted to sound right? Well set up a wood chipper in a street and turn it on and go hide in a near by build and watch the fun as zombies feed themselves in making zombie puree.
So just trying to dismiss things by saying Walmart doesn't sell minesweepers is really not being honest.
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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by doitnstyle1 » Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:25 am

I'm not trying to be a jerk. I'm just saying that there is not enough of that equipment to handle something like that in a timely manner. There is maintenance on these things that may or may not be easy without appropriate training.

In all my life I have never seen any of those devices anywhere I have lived. This is all saying that zombies are real. You wouldn't use any of this equipment on live human beings in a more realistic scenario. Say, A pandemic, riots, Disaster situation.

I think the spirit of the article is not so much about zombies but about disaster in general such as a pandemic. Our current methods of control are working but if a bug did get too big for its britches then what kind of dispersal would we see? What could we realistically do?

I think that the best we could hope for is containment in small pockets.
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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by flybynight » Sun Jan 08, 2017 12:34 pm

doitnstyle1 wrote:I'm not trying to be a jerk. I'm just saying that there is not enough of that equipment to handle something like that in a timely manner. There is maintenance on these things that may or may not be easy without appropriate training.

In all my life I have never seen any of those devices anywhere I have lived. This is all saying that zombies are real. You wouldn't use any of this equipment on live human beings in a more realistic scenario. Say, A pandemic, riots, Disaster situation.

I think the spirit of the article is not so much about zombies but about disaster in general such as a pandemic. Our current methods of control are working but if a bug did get too big for its britches then what kind of dispersal would we see? What could we realistically do?

I think that the best we could hope for is containment in small pockets.

There's no shame in being one of the statistical dead because you didn't make the connection between the machines used as examples and any other similar machines ( bulldozer, pavement roller ect). After all without massive amounts of casualties there couldn't be a zombie apocalypse :lol:
If not zombies, wouldn't sheltering in place and living off your preps protect you from a pandemic?
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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by ManInBlack316 » Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:31 pm

While this is not a fully serious topic.
One thing I think people keep forgetting is that we all know zombies don't exist, right? Well of course we do. Except in the unlikely chance that zombies were real, that fact the we "know" zombies aren't real is exactly what would lead us to our demise.
So the commander of an Engineer company in the military recognizes the undead threat for what it is, he instructs his soldiers to construct fortifications to funnel the undead into mine sweepers and chop them all up into little pieces, over one hundred zombies are dispatched with this method and all the soldiers cheer. Except a local news anchor is watching this unfold, she puts out a news release showing the military "forcing helpless demonstrators into a shredder like helpless sheep to the slaughter, JUST LIKE HITLER!". The commander and all soldiers involved are immediately pulled from the area while the higher ups figure out what to do with this incident.
Terrorist cells realize the potential of this new weapon and start releasing zombombs into population centers, police officers' hands are tied as footage unfolds of them gunning down "peaceful rioters".
The first guy that defends himself from a rotter: walks in on uncle Gary munching on aunt Susie, there's a struggle, guy puts two in uncle Gary's chest which doesn't work, finally manages to grab a pair of scissors and shoves it straight into the eye socket. He's portrayed on the news as a madman that forced his uncle to commit cannibalism, shot him twice in the chest to watch him suffer, and then cruelly shoved scissors into the poor man's eye.
Never doubt the damage that ignorance, bias, and bad journalism is capable of doing.


As for sheltering in place during a pandemic, it's probably your best idea. So long as you have proper isolation protocols and aren't forced out of your home through a mandatory evacuation.

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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by sheddi » Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:27 pm

This story got a mention in the chat thread. I thought it must be somewhere else on the board too :)

I'm inclined to agree that the model is weighted heavily in favour of the zombies. (How else are they going to get a convincing apocalypse and the press coverage that goes with it?)
flybynight wrote:
doitnstyle1 wrote:You don't take into consideration that there will be some kind of coverup that always happens with some kind of disaster.
The chances of that happening diminish more each day. Ever since everybody got their own personal video recorder/ transmitter.
I saw it put like this:
No sooner did everyone start carrying a camera than the alien abductions stopped :mrgreen:
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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by flybynight » Sun Jan 08, 2017 7:37 pm

sheddi wrote:This story got a mention in the chat thread. I thought it must be somewhere else on the board too :)

I'm inclined to agree that the model is weighted heavily in favour of the zombies. (How else are they going to get a convincing apocalypse and the press coverage that goes with it?)
flybynight wrote:
doitnstyle1 wrote:You don't take into consideration that there will be some kind of coverup that always happens with some kind of disaster.
The chances of that happening diminish more each day. Ever since everybody got their own personal video recorder/ transmitter.
I saw it put like this:
No sooner did everyone start carrying a camera than the alien abductions stopped :mrgreen:
Why yes . Yes this is true silly huma.... I mean Sheddi Muhahahahahhahaha Image
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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by The Twizzler » Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:33 pm

If this takes place and I am the commanding officer I think I would dress up as Hitler while they film me. I would shout orders in German. Then sit back and watch the media lose their minds. :lol:

Als wichtigste Officer des Bereichs bestelle ich Sie diesen Dreck im Namen der Heimat-Land ausführen.



ManInBlack316 wrote:While this is not a fully serious topic.
One thing I think people keep forgetting is that we all know zombies don't exist, right? Well of course we do. Except in the unlikely chance that zombies were real, that fact the we "know" zombies aren't real is exactly what would lead us to our demise.
So the commander of an Engineer company in the military recognizes the undead threat for what it is, he instructs his soldiers to construct fortifications to funnel the undead into mine sweepers and chop them all up into little pieces, over one hundred zombies are dispatched with this method and all the soldiers cheer. Except a local news anchor is watching this unfold, she puts out a news release showing the military "forcing helpless demonstrators into a shredder like helpless sheep to the slaughter, JUST LIKE HITLER!". The commander and all soldiers involved are immediately pulled from the area while the higher ups figure out what to do with this incident.
Terrorist cells realize the potential of this new weapon and start releasing zombombs into population centers, police officers' hands are tied as footage unfolds of them gunning down "peaceful rioters".
The first guy that defends himself from a rotter: walks in on uncle Gary munching on aunt Susie, there's a struggle, guy puts two in uncle Gary's chest which doesn't work, finally manages to grab a pair of scissors and shoves it straight into the eye socket. He's portrayed on the news as a madman that forced his uncle to commit cannibalism, shot him twice in the chest to watch him suffer, and then cruelly shoved scissors into the poor man's eye.
Never doubt the damage that ignorance, bias, and bad journalism is capable of doing.


As for sheltering in place during a pandemic, it's probably your best idea. So long as you have proper isolation protocols and aren't forced out of your home through a mandatory evacuation.
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Re: Zombie Apocalypse would take 100 days if left unchecked

Post by ManInBlack316 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:26 pm

The Twizzler wrote:If this takes place and I am the commanding officer I think I would dress up as Hitler while they film me. I would shout orders in German. Then sit back and watch the media lose their minds. :lol:

Als wichtigste Officer des Bereichs bestelle ich Sie diesen Dreck im Namen der Heimat-Land ausführen.



ManInBlack316 wrote:While this is not a fully serious topic.
One thing I think people keep forgetting is that we all know zombies don't exist, right? Well of course we do. Except in the unlikely chance that zombies were real, that fact the we "know" zombies aren't real is exactly what would lead us to our demise.
So the commander of an Engineer company in the military recognizes the undead threat for what it is, he instructs his soldiers to construct fortifications to funnel the undead into mine sweepers and chop them all up into little pieces, over one hundred zombies are dispatched with this method and all the soldiers cheer. Except a local news anchor is watching this unfold, she puts out a news release showing the military "forcing helpless demonstrators into a shredder like helpless sheep to the slaughter, JUST LIKE HITLER!". The commander and all soldiers involved are immediately pulled from the area while the higher ups figure out what to do with this incident.
Terrorist cells realize the potential of this new weapon and start releasing zombombs into population centers, police officers' hands are tied as footage unfolds of them gunning down "peaceful rioters".
The first guy that defends himself from a rotter: walks in on uncle Gary munching on aunt Susie, there's a struggle, guy puts two in uncle Gary's chest which doesn't work, finally manages to grab a pair of scissors and shoves it straight into the eye socket. He's portrayed on the news as a madman that forced his uncle to commit cannibalism, shot him twice in the chest to watch him suffer, and then cruelly shoved scissors into the poor man's eye.
Never doubt the damage that ignorance, bias, and bad journalism is capable of doing.


As for sheltering in place during a pandemic, it's probably your best idea. So long as you have proper isolation protocols and aren't forced out of your home through a mandatory evacuation.
That's just wrong man.... That's like CHAT thread level of sin there...

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