Non-COVID Casualties from The COVID Lockdown

[raptor2]

There have been a myriad of negative events associated with the COVID shut down (like the economy for one) but what is now just starting to emerge are the unintended consequences of the lock down and medical concentration on COVID.

This is the UK but I am willing to bet that US has had a similar negative result due to the delay of many medical procedures and treatment.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -bare.html

Rates of depression and anxiety also doubled, according to analysis from the ONS. While the British Medical Journal of Psychiatry found that nearly one-in-five people had suicidal thoughts in the first month of lockdown.

University of Buckingham cancer specialist Professor Karol Sikora called the newspaper’s analysis a “stunning demonstration of lockdowns’ harmful effects across society”.

“If lockdown were a drug, you’d need to consider the side effects, and yet we’re not – even though we seem to be diving headlong into another one.

“People sometimes claim it’s a question of health versus the economy, but it’s not – it’s health versus health,” Prof Sikora told the Daily Mail.

The analogy is interesting and supports the statement that the cure (lockdown) is as bad or worse than the disease, at lest in the UK.

As a treatment I would say the negative side effects are very severe.

Meanwhile Ireland is going back to a nationwide lockdown.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... job-losses

The country expects 150,000 people to lose their jobs over the next "couple of days," Deputy Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said.

What is a better treatment? The thing they did for centuries quarantine those exposed.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10- ... demic.html

He said if he could have one wish, it would be to ensure "every contact of a confirmed case is in quarantine for the appropriate period".

"I do not believe that has occurred systematically, anywhere," he told a virtual press conference from the WHO's headquarters in Geneva, saying it was "a good part of the reason why we're seeing such high numbers".

[lurkshere]

There is recognition in the UK that covid has had knock on effects but you can trust The Daily Mail to twist and exaggerate things.

It's the closest the UK has to Fox News and pedals the same sh!t to the same audience.

[raptor2]

There is recognition in the UK that covid has had knock on effects but you can trust The Daily Mail to twist and exaggerate things.

It's the closest the UK has to Fox News and pedals the same sh!t to the same audience.

I will not defend The Daily Mail nor condemn BBC.

However the reason I posted this is the many 3rd parties studies cited by the article.

A British Medical Journal study found that during lockdown, endoscopies for bowel cancer averaged just 12 per cent of normal levels, and at one point were down to 5 per cent. Delays in bowel cancer diagnosis are likely to lead to between 650 and 2,250 excess deaths in England, according to another BMJ paper. A Lancet study found delays for breast, lung and oesophageal cancer patients caused by the lockdown were likely to cause a further 2,000 excess deaths.

A University College London study for the British Medical Journal found that hospital admissions for chemotherapy fell by up to 66 per cent in April, while urgent referrals for early cancer diagnosis were down by up to 89 per cent. It concluded that this would lead to 6,270 extra deaths in the first year.

According to another BMJ study, there were nearly 2,100 excess deaths in England from heart attacks and strokes, an increase of 8 per cent, while the numbers treated for strokes fell by 45 per cent. The Health Foundation said during the lockdown, accident and emergency visits in England fell by more than half, from more than 80,000 a week to just over 40,000.

You may not like the messenger but the message to me is quite clear that I think both agree upon.

There is recognition in the UK that covid has had knock on effects

Lockdowns cause significant side effects that impact other health issues that result in casualties.

IMO the interruption of cancer treatments is one of the most serious matters.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-o ... 1602756013

https://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/new ... -care.html

Suicide is not too far behind that.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story ... 937763002/

[RoneKiln]

Google "increase in starvation due to lockdown" and you get a lot of scary articles from a broad ramge of media outlets.

https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-ap ... e7b4965cbd

This one references UN studies claiming 10,000 children a month are starving to death directly due to COVID related lockdowns. The is in addition to kids that would die without COVID. It also references the increase by the millions of children suffering malnutrition ailments that will last their entire lives.

I think COVID is very serious and we should have taken many precautions from the start. Unfortunately many nations took a very reactionary response, and then double downed on their mistakes. I think we'll eventually see more dead and injured from the ripple effects of the solution than the original problem would have caused if left unchecked.

[PistolPete]

In a smaller sense, I've noticed a number of negative effects in my world. I play hockey with a local paramedic and he says suicide calls are up 4x in recent months. Whether that turns into more successful suicides remains to be seen when the year end stats are published.

In my county they cancelled adult sports leagues and youth leagues for players over 14. I have a nephew who last year was a promising football prospect with a scholarship likely. So far, it looks like that won't be happening. As well, I know of at least two people on my hockey team who won't be coming back, and hockey was their primary source of exercise. I fear losing that will have long term health effects for them, one of the dudes has put on 40 pounds since we stopped playing in early March.

I have one friend whose bar and grill is already closed due to the restrictions by the county- 25% capacity and closing by 11 right now. I have another friend who has managed to keep her bar open but only because she's taken on other work to pump money into paying the rent since she can't allow in enough customers to cover day to day expenses. The local burlesque performers haven't been able to schedule a gig in several season and that looks to be continuing into the future. I know a couple people who had that as important income for their family and their isn't a viable replacement. The local burlesque school has closed.

My brother went into full freak out mode and self segregated himself from most other humans and it's having a serious toll on his mental health. His son was an aspiring musician, and quite talented, and lost the freedom to even practice with friends, much less play live. We may never see live music make a comeback.

There hasn't been an art show since March, so I can imagine the effects on that community as well.

On a macro level, Yelp estimates half the restaurants in their database have closed. I know several service industry workers who have been out of work since April and cannot find another job since so many places are closed and the ones open are restricted by reduced capacity and hours. My buddies wife has taken to drinking pretty heavy in response to not being able to find work, despite applying for any job she can find. It's taking a toll on both of them.

I could go on and on about the effects on airlines, the commercial real estate market, mom and pop stores losing business to Amazon and so on, but I'm sure we all see that in our day to day lives.

[Blast]

Babies dying in Australia because the Coronavirus lockdown prevent traveling for surgeries:
https://twitter.com/9NewsAUS/status/131 ... ictions%2F

-Blast

[raptor2]

I play hockey with a local paramedic and he says suicide calls are up 4x in recent months. Whether that turns into more successful suicides remains to be seen when the year end stats are published.

The number of successful suicides in 2020 by people I know is to me the most disturbing trend.
One teen suicide.
Two others by adults that were devastated financially by the state & city lock down.

That said I agree it will be a while before stats are published. However after seeing my state's lack of basic math skills (negative daily COVID deaths 3 times ); I am not sure the stats will be accurate.

As a final note the one thing COVID has taught me is how abjectly pathetic the health record keeping is my area. It is abysmal.

[woodsghost]

In my life, the family Wicked Wich of the West died from a UTI because she refused to go near a hospital due to COVID-19 concerns. Despite being married to a doctor. She was in her 80's. But she sure didn't have COVID-19.

How many preventable deaths are occurring every day due to fear of COVID? She was not even in a high risk part of the country. I'm curious if more people have died from the effects of fear vs actually died from the virus.

[PistolPete]

That said I agree it will be a while before stats are published. However after seeing my state's lack of basic math skills (negative daily COVID deaths 3 times ); I am not sure the stats will be accurate.

As a final note the one thing COVID has taught me is how abjectly pathetic the health record keeping is my area. It is abysmal.

Accurate data seems like it will be impossible to round up with all this. Are we only counting "Died of covid", or do we include "died after a positive test" and "died with symptoms that could have been the 'rona, but no positive test"? The CDC guidance seems to have changed as time went on, and the financial incentive to report things broadly doesn't help. And even with the CDC, it's certainly not a science first organization, it's become increasingly political over the years. How does that skew their collection and reporting of data?

Halfway through next year we should be able to review data from scores of countries and get a better idea of it all, but right now it's impossible. I don't judge people who err on the side of caution, nor do I judge people who choose to live their life without fear, because each of those people found "data" that resonated with them and reinforced their opinion.

[raptor2]

Accurate data seems like it will be impossible to round up with all this. Are we only counting "Died of covid", or do we include "died after a positive test" and "died with symptoms that could have been the 'rona, but no positive test"?

QFT!
COVID's true death toll will likely never be known for these reasons and others^^^^^.

I offer as examples:
1.) A deceased friend who died of a heart issues due to a delayed heart stint installation. He was diagnosed as needing the stint in 2Q of 2020. However the procedure was delayed by state orders to conserve PPE for such elective procedures. To me the terms heart stint and elective procedure are not something I would use in a sentence...but what do I know. No COVID diagnosis there.

2.) Another friend who died in August in a hospice with 4th stage pancreatic cancer. He signed a DNR/No extreme measures/No respirator order. He was being given ever larger doses of morphine to control the pain of the disease. The morphine most likely resulted in his death. He on the other hand was diagnosed with COVID.

The first friend was not considered an official COVID death. The second friend was counted as a COVID death.

I can argue that these two cases (& many more) are both are COVID deaths and also that neither are COVID cases.

My comment is pick a methodology, stick to it and apply it consistently. That seems simple but I can promise that the bureaucracy will screw it up anyway.

[PistolPete]

The first friend was not considered an official COVID death. The second friend was counted as a COVID death.

Yeah, and based on the subject of this thread we really need two categories:
Death caused by and/or contributed to by covid-19
Death caused by and/or contributed to by the government response to covid-19

That first friend would certainly fall under the second classification since the surgery was delayed due to propaganda and directives that caused his surgery to be delayed which caused his death.

Sorry for your loss, it's so hard to watch something like that happen and be powerless to help change the outcome.

[raptor2]

Sorry for your loss, it's so hard to watch something like that happen and be powerless to help change the outcome.

It is hard to watch the outright lies, the BS, the crocodile tears and the people saying we need to save lives by destroying things. Like so much in our "modern" culture of instant gratification, PC and "justice"; they are nothing but self serving statements and actions for self serving reasons.

To be clear, IMO, COVID is real and is a threat; like many other diseases that we live with everyday for modern history. That said the response taken at the local levels in virtually every state far exceeded that which was appropriate. In some cases (i.e.states where they sent to the COVID cases to nursing home) the actions taken actually killed more people.

[by-the-throat]

I remember when the shutdown was first starting, one of the first things I saw was a woman's viral post on social media. In it, she tells the story of how she had saved up and started a business, a fitness studio, and gotten it up and running that month-and then BAM, shutdown. And she's tearfully talking about how she has to close down her gym and she doesn't know what she's going to do, she's in the red with all these business loans and now she can't do business. When people say "You can't sacrifice lives for the economy" they forget that the economy going south is gonna cost lives too, both wholly and partially. Expect higher rates of divorce, domestic abuse, suicide, everything in the article and likely more that we are just not thinking to measure. An economic collapse drops the quality of life for everyone. Big players got bailed out, small players got jack, and nobody got anything for awhile due to pork wrangling-but this woman was losing her dream along with her livelihood, and I always wondered what happened to her.

People that go hungry, shutter their businesses, lose hours or get shitcanned, get divorced, delay medical treatments and sometimes blow their fucking brains out rather than face further isolation and other issues are not really COVID-19 collateral damage. They are rather unintended consequences of the COVID-19 RESPONSE, and the body count may end up being higher because of it. Particularly since...well, there's still COVID.

[raptor2]

In it, she tells the story of how she had saved up and started a business, a fitness studio, and gotten it up and running that much-and then BAM, shutdown. And she's tearfully talking about how she has to close down her gym and she doesn't know what she's going to do, she's in the red with all these business loans and now she can't do business.
...(snip)... and I always wondered what happened to her.

I do not know anything about this woman but the 2 adult suicides I mentioned had basically similar stories.
One involving a gym and the other involved a bar.

[MPMalloy]

I remember when the shutdown was first starting, one of the first things I saw was a woman's viral post on social media. In it, she tells the story of how she had saved up and started a business, a fitness studio, and gotten it up and running that month-and then BAM, shutdown. And she's tearfully talking about how she has to close down her gym and she doesn't know what she's going to do, she's in the red with all these business loans and now she can't do business. When people say "You can't sacrifice lives for the economy" they forget that the economy going south is gonna cost lives too, both wholly and partially. Expect higher rates of divorce, domestic abuse, suicide, everything in the article and likely more that we are just not thinking to measure. An economic collapse drops the quality of life for everyone. Big players got bailed out, small players got jack, and nobody got anything for awhile due to pork wrangling-but this woman was losing her dream along with her livelihood, and I always wondered what happened to her.

People that go hungry, shutter their businesses, lose hours or get shitcanned, get divorced, delay medical treatments and sometimes blow their fucking brains out rather than face further isolation and other issues are not really COVID-19 collateral damage. They are rather unintended consequences of the COVID-19 RESPONSE, and the body count may end up being higher because of it. Particularly since...well, there's still COVID.

Why does it seem, that none of TPTB, ever take this into consideration? There never seems to be a plan for this. Yeah, there is some extra money for the safety net, all from MORE DEBT .

Once again I am SMDH that TPTB around this place just can't get anything done about anything.

(I may be posting this under the influence of events not related to the OP).