COVID-19 Chat Thread

This isn't going away anytime soon folks and with all the new variants of COVID-19 popping up it just made sense to drop COVID-19 from the sub-section name and consolidate all the pandemic stuff in one location.

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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by raptor2 » Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:22 am

tony d tiger wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:56 pm
NT2C wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:35 pm
CDC themselves have waffled on this. At one point I think they were claiming the primary transmission vector was contaminated surfaces and that it definitely was not airborne.
This has been the crux of the problem, to me, at least.

Trust. ...or lack thereof, in government agencies. "'They' lied" has been a common theme with a populace that lacks critical thinking skills and excels at grievance and entitlement. :words:
/rant
QFT

Rule #21 - Everyone...EVERYONE lies. Anyone who denies this is lying.
Rule #22 - Everyone makes mistakes. Anyone who denies this...see rule #21.

Once you accept this fact it makes it easier to accept that critical thinking skills are necessary.
We as a society are foolishly demanding things that no one can provide...only promise that they can (see rule #21 when you hear these promises).
Duco Ergo Sum


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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by raptor2 » Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:53 am

Great post and great points manacheck!

manacheck wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:02 am

I think the decisions made to put state and local shutdowns into place despite the disruptions was the right decision when it was the best decision. It bought time for hospitals to respond, for guidance to be issued, for new product to be created for dealing with the issues, for tests for medicines to be begun, and for leaders to get a plan in place to mitigate continued impacts and help the economy get back into the groove as quickly as possible.
I respect that point and acknowledge the logic. Still I look at other responses like Sweden, Japan and the PRC. Each was quite different from the US in many ways. While the logic of flatten the curve makes sense; I am not sure there is a compelling case that the lock down did that.

Why? The other thing that is missing from the discussion is the record keeping. We as a country, state and local cannot seem to count and keep adequate stats. In my state we had two days with negative deaths and several days with negative cases and so many revisions of the data that IMO that the stats are basically garbage. Many states have that issue. In my world such revisions are frequently done for fraudulent purposes. I assume that is the case here as in what do you want the numbers to say?

Keeping good stats is not really hard. Yet for some reason that skill still eludes us.
manacheck wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:02 am
But now we're more than half a year into this thing and it can't continue this way. Three months was an incredible strain. A good job was done by all kinds of people, from doctors to pork producers, trying to figure out how to manage even with shutdowns and many people getting sick and dying. But now it's October. A "bandaid" is insufficient for this long of a bleed, and a "tourniquet" left on for this long means the limb dying.
QFT!
manacheck wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:02 am
I don't think we all disagree on the important aspects of the things we're dealing with as a world (and with what tape we're being forced to limbo under/through) but I think it's pretty refreshing that this forum can handle being able to disagree and still be constructive and helpful together.
Peaceful and polite disagreement is useful and productive.
manacheck wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:02 am
For me, there's a lot of little things I'm angry at in how the response has been done. "Elective" operations being postponed and the damages it's done to so many people are one of the big things. But I'm also a believer in acknowledging that no matter the result, we should acknowledge that things would have been different if a different action had been taken. In this case, fatalities would have been more and sooner. We paid for it, for electing leaders who made the decisions we tried to follow in order to be in compliance with the law. And now we have to figure out how to continue to pay for it without that guidance because of the election being more important to said leaders than "taking care of" their people first.
QFT Locally I point to the absurd rules put in place to "take care of people".
For instance in LA for a time gyms were allowed to open at half capacity but the bathroom showers could not be use. Seriously you could exercise exhale everywhere but not clean up when you leave and go home.
I point to the states of NY, NJ, CA & LA where recovering COVID cases were sent to nursing homes and wiped whole population segments by spreading the disease to vulnerable people despite the fact that special and expensive facilities were set up for this purpose (hospital ships, temporary hospitals, etc.).

It brings a new meaning to the term "taking care of people". It makes me assume in this world of double speak and public lies that their intent was to achieve that destructive goal.
manacheck wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:02 am
Not to get into politics.
Please no politics.
Duco Ergo Sum


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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by raptor2 » Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:51 pm

An interesting article I am not vouching for the accuracy of the W.H.O.'s claim just noting the claim of the following:
A high-ranking official at the World Health Organization’s (W.H.O.) reportedly declared Monday the agency’s “best estimates” indicate about ten percent of the globe, or over 765 million people, have contracted the Chinese coronavirus. This figure overshadows the number of confirmed infections by over 20 times.
The roughly 1.039 million global deaths, per the W.H.O., coupled with the agency’s “best” estimate for infections, suggests the infection fatality rate (IFR) stands at an estimated 0.135, or similar to the flu, much lower than previous estimates released before the lockdown.

Unlike the less accurate, but more widely use confirmed case fatality rate, the IFR takes into account asymptomatic and mild cases that do not make it into the hospital.

That means a lot more people are contracting the virus without dying than previously thought.
Politics and Non-PC description of COVID at the source link:
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/1 ... ed-number/
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by RoneKiln » Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:59 pm

manacheck wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:02 am
2020 needs more Batman set energy.
There's a dedicated subsection in the Disasters in Current Events forum for that now. It's just making 2020 even worse.
viewforum.php?f=153

I like watching Batman in the movie theatre, but not in my community.
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by manacheck » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:09 am

raptor2 wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:53 am
The other thing that is missing from the discussion is the record keeping. We as a country, state and local cannot seem to count and keep adequate stats. In my state we had two days with negative deaths and several days with negative cases and so many revisions of the data that IMO that the stats are basically garbage. Many states have that issue. In my world such revisions are frequently done for fraudulent purposes. I assume that is the case here as in what do you want the numbers to say?
The issues with reporting inaccurate and publishing the manipulated numbers... that's being done intentionally. Not paranoia: I remember earlier on in this when the handling of reporting changed, that there was a published stated reason on the state's government website. That this was being done and changed, for the sake to obscure the information "for national security."

That made sense back then, but now that we're this far into the pandemic and every other country is in a similar pickle, the situation is different now. It's not that it's due to stupidity of people not knowing how to add, or an inability to report things, or an inability to not provide garbage stats, or the fact that the administration keeps getting hands changed and reporting software changed and this and the other thing changed and manipulated and intentionally counfounded even more. It's not like an accident. As you say, the revisions are being done for fraudulent purposes. But because it was identified as obfuscation for the sake of nationl security early on, there's no denying with any plausibility how the garbage state are by design.

I think it was probably back in February or March, but I remember saving the page and going, "Huh, well... trading hands? National security? ...I guess that makes sense, but... it's not really helpful to us as individuals so much, maybe."
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by manacheck » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:16 am

RoneKiln wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:59 pm
manacheck wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:02 am
2020 needs more Batman set energy.
There's a dedicated subsection in the Disasters in Current Events forum for that now. It's just making 2020 even worse.
viewforum.php?f=153

I like watching Batman in the movie theatre, but not in my community.
Ha! I don't mean the movie, I meant the set. I agree with you. Batman in the movie theatre is one thing. Batman in your community, a different thing. And actually, it's my mistake: the energy I was referencing apparently was from the Terminator: Salvation movie set, not a Batman set. Though I also believe Terminator in the theatre is also very different to Terminator in your community.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0auwpvAU2YA
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Oct 10, 2020 1:24 pm


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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by RoneKiln » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:41 pm

manacheck wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:16 am
RoneKiln wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:59 pm
manacheck wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:02 am
2020 needs more Batman set energy.
There's a dedicated subsection in the Disasters in Current Events forum for that now. It's just making 2020 even worse.
viewforum.php?f=153

I like watching Batman in the movie theatre, but not in my community.
Ha! I don't mean the movie, I meant the set. I agree with you. Batman in the movie theatre is one thing. Batman in your community, a different thing. And actually, it's my mistake: the energy I was referencing apparently was from the Terminator: Salvation movie set, not a Batman set. Though I also believe Terminator in the theatre is also very different to Terminator in your community.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0auwpvAU2YA
WOOHOO!

We have a thread for THAT too!
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119603. :lol:
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by raptor2 » Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:56 pm

manacheck wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:09 am

That made sense back then, but now that we're this far into the pandemic and every other country is in a similar pickle, the situation is different now. It's not that it's due to stupidity of people not knowing how to add, or an inability to report things, or an inability to not provide garbage stats, or the fact that the administration keeps getting hands changed and reporting software changed and this and the other thing changed and manipulated and intentionally counfounded even more. It's not like an accident. As you say, the revisions are being done for fraudulent purposes. But because it was identified as obfuscation for the sake of nationl security early on, there's no denying with any plausibility how the garbage state are by design.

One thing to remember about the stats in the US they are compiled first at the local level then reported to the individual state level. Then these stats are reported to the CDC. The revisions are coming from the state level. The errors, manipulations or whatever are generated by the locals for what ever purpose.

This link is to an example in LA (caution politics at the link).
https://710keel.com/red-river-parish-an ... sk-policy/

In this case the state denied the error but low and behold the state the numbers were revised.

The bad record keeping begins at the state level.
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by NT2C » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:46 pm



50-50 Chance You're Living in a Simulation: Should 'Base Reality' Give You a 2020 Do Over?
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by raptor2 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:01 pm

NT2C wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:46 pm
50-50 Chance You're Living in a Simulation: Should 'Base Reality' Give You a 2020 Do Over?
Can we go back to the save point in 2019 and replay 2020 albeit with knowledge we have today?
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by NT2C » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:21 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:01 pm
NT2C wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:46 pm
50-50 Chance You're Living in a Simulation: Should 'Base Reality' Give You a 2020 Do Over?
Can we go back to the save point in 2019 and replay 2020 albeit with knowledge we have today?
Just going to make the panic buying and shortages worse the second time.
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by raptor2 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:25 pm

NT2C wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:21 pm
raptor2 wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:01 pm
NT2C wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:46 pm
50-50 Chance You're Living in a Simulation: Should 'Base Reality' Give You a 2020 Do Over?
Can we go back to the save point in 2019 and replay 2020 albeit with knowledge we have today?
Just going to make the panic buying and shortages worse the second time.
You are likely correct. :cry:
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by manacheck » Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:40 am

RoneKiln wrote:
Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:41 pm


WOOHOO!

We have a thread for THAT too!
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119603. :lol:
:rofl: :clap:
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by manacheck » Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:02 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:56 pm
The revisions are coming from the state level. The errors, manipulations or whatever are generated by the locals for what ever purpose.

....

The bad record keeping begins at the state level.
I can't argue yes or no whether errors, manipulations, or whatever are generated by locals.

However, I can and do absolutely argue what I'm hearing you imply: that the states aren't also manipulating data (and the transparency with which it's publicly reported.)

Maybe the revisions are all being done in good faith, and maybe everyone at the state level is doing their job perfectly and all errors are corrected on the state level, and no additional errors, manipulations, or whatever, are intentionally added at the state level or the above levels... but I don't think that's possible.

It's a multi-level approach to reporting the data and on every level is the opportunity to skew information and report it in such a way that is "most beneficial" to that level as well as to the levels above it. Think about when the president's administration changed the software they required hospitals to use to provide the data. There was no time to train anyone in it. People at the local level likely did the best they could to satisfy the new regulation. To blame that only on one level, the local level, is ignoring every other level's fingers in the local level's jobs.

Then you hear about hospitals reporting information that gets counted twice, or not at all. The bad record keeping can't be blamed only on the state level or only on the local level. And even when the media gets ahold of the data being reported, it's shown in confusing graphs with "rolling averages" and no mentions of when the numbers being reported for that day are actually appliable to.

If Joe Schmo gets a test on Tuesday and it' comes back as positive on Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday, and included in Friday or Saturday's numbers, maybe it shows up on Monday if Saturday and Sunday get rolled together in how they're reported. But the numbers and graphs don't indicate when the tests were taken. Maybe they're from tests taken that day. Maybe they're from tests taken a week ago. It's not being reported in media with transparency, and some of that is because of every level along the way, but all of it is guided by the security guidelines about "not wanting to report too specifically" for the sake of withholding intelligence from the country's enemies.

What it boils down to is not really having a good sense of what's going on. Remembering how early on the specifics were much more transparent. Remembering when that all started to change and the reasons given as to why being for national security. So I mean, okay, but it's still not okay to say that that decisions to no have clear information is the fault of the local level. Local level has the most to lose not knowing the actual data about their own local area's situation. It's kind of like blaming the victim using excuses like "but they'll get more money if they lie"... even if that's true, isn't that because someone on another level said, "hey, I know how to skew results, let's reward the local area if they do this and punish them if they don't."

Every relationship is give or take, but the gives and takes aren't usually equal. :words:
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by raptor2 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:55 am

manacheck wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:02 pm
raptor2 wrote:
Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:56 pm
The revisions are coming from the state level. The errors, manipulations or whatever are generated by the locals for what ever purpose.

....

The bad record keeping begins at the state level.
However, I can and do absolutely argue what I'm hearing you imply: that the states aren't also manipulating data (and the transparency with which it's publicly reported.)
.
I may be confused by this statement but I thought it was pretty clear that IMO the data "revisions" begin at the state and local level.
I am saying that if you want to get to the core of the matter you have to go the initial source data. That initial source data is provided by the states

I am also saying that the record keeping is so dismal, to the point that manipulation of this data is a reasonable assumption; that or gross negligence and perhaps even both. No one can be that poor of a record keeper accidently.

Finding proof of manipulations will be difficult, but without proof I am not going say there is deliberate manipulation. Still I do agree that assuming manipulation is occurring is reasonable, based upon the many "revisions" of the data. I sure as hell am not saying there is no such manipulation of data, just that I have seen no proof of it.

The only ambiguity IMO is how much of this is data is a legitimate and inevitable clean up of errors. Then the other question with clean up of data is always was the correction properly applied.


In LA the link I provided earlier had one parish (county) claiming the state number for their parish was grossly incorrect and overstated. This is the only incidence I can find where data was manipulated in my state. IMO the state of LA numbers are garbage and statistically worthless. I have said this many times.
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:56 pm

Europe is going to nation-wide lockdowns.

Has anyone heard from Wee?

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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by 12_Gauge_Chimp » Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:25 pm

MPMalloy wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:56 pm
Europe is going to nation-wide lockdowns.

Has anyone heard from Wee?
I'm friends with her on Facebook, but I think she may be busy with her farm right now. Between the time differences and the fact she may be busy with farm life, I avoiding sending her a message since I don't want to bother her.

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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by manacheck » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:02 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:55 am
Finding proof of manipulations will be difficult, but without proof I am not going say there is deliberate manipulation. Still I do agree that assuming manipulation is occurring is reasonable, based upon the many "revisions" of the data. I sure as hell am not saying there is no such manipulation of data, just that I have seen no proof of it.

The only ambiguity IMO is how much of this is data is a legitimate and inevitable clean up of errors. Then the other question with clean up of data is always was the correction properly applied.


In LA the link I provided earlier had one parish (county) claiming the state number for their parish was grossly incorrect and overstated. This is the only incidence I can find where data was manipulated in my state. IMO the state of LA numbers are garbage and statistically worthless. I have said this many times.
I don't see any evidence the numbers are being altered in order to manipulate the data. But how it's being reported is manipulative and confusing.

As you say, trying to make any sense out of the numbers statistically is useless. There is no viable way to frame the information to get a correct picture, even if the raw data could have provided that with any level of accuracy. Charts and graphs and spreadsheets are only useful if what they're showing includes a level of consistency in what is being reported.

Looking at data saying "tests have come back XYZ" means nothing to anyone if it's not indicated when said tests were taken versus when they were processed. In our county we still have cases listed as "positives" showing up in the current dataset despite that those cases haven't been active since early March. Looking at those aggregate numbers give zero information without sufficient context. It looks like way more than it is because it's not being presented in a straightforward manner, even though technically the numbers are supposedly accurate.

Maybe I misunderstood part of how you responded. I took it as you stating that only one level (local/county) of providing data could be liable for inaccurately representing data, no matter how many tiers of levels are actively directing how the collected data is provided and/or presented (or not presented.) It sounds like that might not have been what you were trying to say, exactly. More that you've found just one instance of data being grossly overstated on one level in your state. However, I see manipulations as being the intent to hide data or present it to sound different than it is. Changing the numbers themselves to be inaccurate is flat out providing wrong data. Providing the numbers but making them sound different than they are currently through the method they are being presented is a manipulation.

Manipulations don't only include grossly wrong numbers being presented, however. They also include the attempt to mislead via confusion even when the data presented using it is verifiable or reasonably accurate. It's a different type of misrepresentation than simply giving wrong data. That's what I meant. Hope that clears up what I mean.

It's easy to find proofs of manipulations. If you're looking at a chart that states "present COVID cases" and it's not showing a timeline of what "present" indicates (This week? This month? This year? Are any tests duplicated from the same patient making sure it's not a false positive?) and all the results are shown in bold lettering and deep blood red colors with a little blurb about "be afraid!!" next to it in equally vague terms, then it's a manipulation. The proof is looking at it with your eyeballs. That doesn't mean that you should be UN-afraid, but it does mean that the data provided is insufficient to rely on as being reasonably or verifiably accurate in regards to the present state or rate of infections. I mean you're literally looking at bar graphs and pie charts and honeycomb maps that are designed to just look like something is happening.
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by Lambykins » Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:02 pm

Just a few random observations from a small town (pop. 2,300) in a rather remote location (far northern New Hampshire) where I work at the only grocery store (IGA).
Covid finally hit here. We had ONE case from March until October. One.
During the months from March until October, hundreds, if not a couple thousand, people came up here from New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut, southern New Hampshire and southern Vermont because it was thought this was a *safe* area. We were able to continue to get merchandise due to the efforts of our boss and our vendors and buyers. We are at the ass end of all the delivery routes, so trust me when I say our buyers put in a herculean effort to keep us supplied.
We had the panic buying and our boss had to put limits on a lot of things, but by late July, early August, many of those limits had been relaxed.
Friends that work in health care up here were still worried. As one nurse told me, "when it hits us, it is going to hit hard".

It's hit hard.
Official numbers put it at 30 right now.
Unofficially, and realistically, it's around 70.
Around 250 are quarantined (family and friends and some co-workers of the positive cases).
Local nursing home has 13 staff positive and 4 patients positive. That's just one nursing home out of 4 locally.
1 doctor and 2 nurses from a local clinic.
A teacher and 4 students from the local school.
And so many more.

Local news and the health officials are NOT counting all the cases.
They did not count the doctor or nurses from the clinic, nor the 13 staff members at the nursing home. They did count the patients.
There is little to no *follow-up* for people that test positive. They are told to stay home, but no one checks to see if they actually are staying home.
And panic buying has started up again, so limits were placed again.
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by Challenger007 » Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:55 am

Lambykins wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:02 pm
Just a few random observations from a small town (pop. 2,300) in a rather remote location (far northern New Hampshire) where I work at the only grocery store (IGA).
Covid finally hit here. We had ONE case from March until October. One.
During the months from March until October, hundreds, if not a couple thousand, people came up here from New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Connecticut, southern New Hampshire and southern Vermont because it was thought this was a *safe* area. We were able to continue to get merchandise due to the efforts of our boss and our vendors and buyers. We are at the ass end of all the delivery routes, so trust me when I say our buyers put in a herculean effort to keep us supplied.
We had the panic buying and our boss had to put limits on a lot of things, but by late July, early August, many of those limits had been relaxed.
Friends that work in health care up here were still worried. As one nurse told me, "when it hits us, it is going to hit hard".

It's hit hard.
Official numbers put it at 30 right now.
Unofficially, and realistically, it's around 70.
Around 250 are quarantined (family and friends and some co-workers of the positive cases).
Local nursing home has 13 staff positive and 4 patients positive. That's just one nursing home out of 4 locally.
1 doctor and 2 nurses from a local clinic.
A teacher and 4 students from the local school.
And so many more.

Local news and the health officials are NOT counting all the cases.
They did not count the doctor or nurses from the clinic, nor the 13 staff members at the nursing home. They did count the patients.
There is little to no *follow-up* for people that test positive. They are told to stay home, but no one checks to see if they actually are staying home.
And panic buying has started up again, so limits were placed again.
Well, it seems to me that the statistics of sick and ill people around the world are very approximate. Not all sick people go to the doctor, many are asymptomatic. We do not know how many people already have antibodies outside the risk zone of infection.

boskone
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by boskone » Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:20 pm

One of my coworkers was exposed, still waiting to hear if he's positive.

It's a long story (and largely one that touches on things that should stay in the company), but at various times we had 4 people in and out of the lab, one being the potential infectee. Of the other 2 in our department, one's got a busted shoulder and can't do much of the lab work and the other's on loan to a different company for a bit.

So while this is unlikely to be an issue for any of us or our families (we're all healthy, and not too old), it's going to be at least a moderate PITA for a while professionally.

And, worse, I won't be able to head to west Texas a couple days before Thanksgiving and do some deer hunting. My parents are healthy for their age, but that's a pretty big qualifier...and dad's got some lingering respiratory and circulatory issues from polio as a child. I think his immune system is as capable as my own (neither one of us gets sick; period, end quote, full stop[1]), but if he did get COVID it might hit him harder than most.

[1] I can count the number of days I've been sick in my entire life on one hand, and still have enough fingers free to hold my drink and flip someone the bird. And no, I don't have any supernumerary fingers.

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Confucius
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by Confucius » Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:56 pm

About 5% of my work is currently out with a positive Covid test. Definitely seems to hit some worse than others, 60 some odd with a heart attack earlier this year pulled through fine, while we have a healthy 30 something in the hospital with it. Everyone that's had it and come back has spoken of the incredible fatigue.


Kinda just waiting to get it. Mask compliance is shockingly low, even in departments that have people out sick right now...

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