COVID-19 Chat Thread

This isn't going away anytime soon folks and it just made sense to consolidate all the COVID-19 stuff in one location.

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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by lailr » Tue May 26, 2020 10:54 am

Stercutus wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 10:39 am
lailr wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 9:58 am
The funniest thing is, the news reports " SURGE IN CASES WHERE STATES REOPEN!!!!!!!!!!"

But no ones like, "Hey, doesn't this thing have like a two week incubation period? And the reports were going out at like 72 hrs locally?

How are we ever to restore faith in the news, if their coverage isn't unbiased, and they're not fear mongering?
In their defense there is no other news. If they want to sell soap they have to something.

When it started we had a bunch of models made by doctors and scientists that were all very scary looking. They were wrong, but very scary. The problem is that the media have, for the most part, been unable to process the new data objectively as it has become available. I imagine currently this has lot of this is politics and not so much science anymore. The cognitive dissonance is too pronounced and too widespread to simple tabulation errors and lack of being informed. The times we live in are very politically divisive and this seems an obvious answer.
Maybe it was just the innocence of youth, but it used to seem better
Here is an article from a former president of CBS. Heavy politics warning.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-libera ... 1590430876
Paywall......but I suspect it says much politically that I agree with.

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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by raptor2 » Tue May 26, 2020 1:37 pm

lailr wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 10:54 am
Stercutus wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 10:39 am
lailr wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 9:58 am
The funniest thing is, the news reports " SURGE IN CASES WHERE STATES REOPEN!!!!!!!!!!"

But no ones like, "Hey, doesn't this thing have like a two week incubation period? And the reports were going out at like 72 hrs locally?

How are we ever to restore faith in the news, if their coverage isn't unbiased, and they're not fear mongering?
In their defense there is no other news. If they want to sell soap they have to something.

When it started we had a bunch of models made by doctors and scientists that were all very scary looking. They were wrong, but very scary. The problem is that the media have, for the most part, been unable to process the new data objectively as it has become available. I imagine currently this has lot of this is politics and not so much science anymore. The cognitive dissonance is too pronounced and too widespread to simple tabulation errors and lack of being informed. The times we live in are very politically divisive and this seems an obvious answer.
Maybe it was just the innocence of youth, but it used to seem better
Here is an article from a former president of CBS. Heavy politics warning.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-libera ... 1590430876
Paywall......but I suspect it says much politically that I agree with.
The daily case counts stats are truly garbage and a smart ZS'er will not use these to evaluate the out break in their areas.

Using a 5 day average is useless when in May results from March are just now being reported.
I say these stats are garbage for the following reasons: (note I am ignoring the accuracy issues since IMO they are not properly determined at this time).

1. As has been pointed out the level of testing is expanding... a lot! In March 2020 only those exhibiting symptoms of some kind were tested. Today you can go to a private clinic and get a COVID 19 antibody test. (which should provide both historic exposure and current status so if these are included in the totals the new cases also includes potentially recovered cases.) The larger testing population should logically uncover more people who with the virus and since the antibody test being used that may be reporting a new case where the person is recovered.

I am referencing a LA article but you can assume at least to some extent these problems in reporting exist everywhere. There is a reason the term "good enough for .gov work" exists.

In March they were trying to do 200 tests per day then that got raised to 600 per day in April.Now the goal is 6,667 per day or 200,000 per month.
You cannot compare daily positive rates with such an increase and resulting disparate testing population. You sure cannot do that then when the results as reported are months old.

This link is indicatative of this issue and also goes on to deal with the second issue.
https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/heal ... d11127c9c5

2. The back log of testing being reporting as daily uptick in cases is flat out wrong!
As an example the daily "spike" reported in LA were all due to old tests. That is a familiar refrain. The states are reported the daily results based upon when they receive the test results not when the test was provided or better yet likely infection week. In LA the mismanaged data reporting means that these old test results unless corrected for dates is meaningless for a daily trend. On May 21 and again on May 25 a huge spike occurred in the numbers reported which were tests result being reported for tests submitted between March and May. Yes the cases were positive but that did not happen overnight or even within a 5 day window. This data reported like this made the state trend lines absolute garbage
https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/a ... ad767.html

I also call BS to any claim that any state has perfect reporting of their daily stats. I see similar spikes of old tests hitting within the the above dates as well as basic reporting issues. That and inconsistent data reporting practices.
https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/loc ... ts/523645/


IMO the key stat is the number of people hospitalized and on ventilators.YMMV.
Remember this whole fiasco was because the COVID virus was going overwhelm the hospital system and the current supply of ventilators. That was the reason the state used to shut down their local economies.
To avoid overwhelming the hospitals.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/busi ... rtage.html
https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/cuomo-bla ... ma-states/

Getting the CORONA virus is not fun and can be deadly to the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. I am not saying there is no risk to it. But absent those risks (and looking at the ventilator usage and capacity is one way to track it) a reasonably prudent ZS'er will understand the following:
a. The daily cases reported has a lot of old data in it, to the extent that the daily trend as reported, is likely garbage.The total is also likely to be lower than actual and as testing increases we will see to what extent this error exists.

b. Testing is increasing exponentially. As testing increases so will the number of corona cases. That is not necessarily a disaster.

c. The people whose deaths that capture the headlines likely contracted the virus 30+/- days previously and as such are NOT a good daily indicator of the spread of the virus today. The press makes money selling clicks to headlines. Reports of deaths = click$. All press stories are biased to the extent that they must sell clicks. Good news and the whole truth is boring Treat those sources accordingly.

d. Several independent sources now say transmission of the virus from surface contact is not as likely as previously thought. You should wash your damn hands and avoid touching your face anyway. There are a lot of the nasty viruses out there.

e. Continuing basic hygiene of avoiding humans in crowded conditions and washing hands is basic common sense and should continue. There is a lot nastier stuff out there that makes covd look weak. This is very important if you are elderly, have diabetes, heart or lung disease or a compromised immune system.

f.If you are sick, stay home and isolate yourself. Rest and drink plenty of fluids(....and stay the hell away from me).

Remember the responses to this and then think about what would have happened if corona was as deadly as Small Pox, Black Plaque or Ebola. Plan accordingly.




Edited to add:

As an example this story uses the above erroneous data to make a claim about the daily incidences of covid.
Just as Covid-19 cases keep rising in 17 states, holiday revelers cram together without masks
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/health/u ... index.html

At no point do they mention the different testing rates per 100k that exist in each state.
For instance they show for instance LA as "steady" despite the 10x increase in testing.
They also use this page as stats which does not (at least for LA) tie back to state stats.
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/he ... and-cases/

Caveat emptor....and please wash your hands.
Duco Ergo Sum


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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Thu May 28, 2020 1:04 pm


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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by boskone » Thu May 28, 2020 3:37 pm

With all the small businesses going or which will go under, PPP notwithstanding, I wonder how many of those jobs will go un-replaced?

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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by Stercutus » Thu May 28, 2020 4:04 pm

boskone wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 3:37 pm
With all the small businesses going or which will go under, PPP notwithstanding, I wonder how many of those jobs will go un-replaced?
It is actually much worse than you are thinking. Certain states refuse to reopen their businesses. With an integrated supply chain other states won't be able to make complex things like locomotives and automobiles because they lack the parts.
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by raptor2 » Thu May 28, 2020 4:05 pm

boskone wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 3:37 pm
With all the small businesses going or which will go under, PPP notwithstanding, I wonder how many of those jobs will go un-replaced?
At this point there is no way to know. But I have seen estimates (SWAGS?) from 25% to 40% but again my comment is it that it depends upon the time frame involved.

In NOLA Katrina devastated the economy in a similar fashion. It required a decade to get back to normal.
Even then the job market pre & post Katrina was very different with fewer mom & pops.
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Thu May 28, 2020 4:27 pm

From NPR: Reckoning With The Dead: Journalist Goes Inside An NYC COVID-19 Disaster Morgue - 35 minutes of audio at the webpage.

Just imagine the public health hazard from human corpses laying around after a disaster = horror

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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by Stercutus » Fri May 29, 2020 3:45 pm

Strangely despite all the "You will die if you live in the South" media hub-bub all the places where the virus is still spreading fast are in the cooler North, mostly North East and plains. It is almost as through the virus doesn't like heat.

1. Rhode Island
2. Maryland
3. Illinois
4. Delaware
5. Massachusetts
6. Connecticut
7. Nebraska
8. New Jersey
9. Minnesota
10. Iowa
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Fri May 29, 2020 4:47 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 3:45 pm
Strangely despite all the "You will die if you live in the South" media hub-bub all the places where the virus is still spreading fast are in the cooler North, mostly North East and plains...

10. Iowa
:wink:

From CNBC: U.S. savings rate hits record 33% as coronavirus causes Americans to stockpile cash, curb spending

From CNBC: Americans are saving more and spending less, but it’s unlikely to continue as states start to reopen

From CNBC: Don’t throw out that pre-paid debit card ... it could be your stimulus payment

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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by RoneKiln » Sun May 31, 2020 12:54 am

Stercutus wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 3:45 pm
Strangely despite all the "You will die if you live in the South" media hub-bub all the places where the virus is still spreading fast are in the cooler North, mostly North East and plains. It is almost as through the virus doesn't like heat.
It's definately possible. I'm also hearing there's a growing amount of evidence that vitamin D defficiency appears to be very strongly correlated to severity of symptoms. Vitamin D deficiency will be worse in northern climates.
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by NT2C » Sun May 31, 2020 12:59 am

RoneKiln wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 12:54 am
Stercutus wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 3:45 pm
Strangely despite all the "You will die if you live in the South" media hub-bub all the places where the virus is still spreading fast are in the cooler North, mostly North East and plains. It is almost as through the virus doesn't like heat.
It's definately possible. I'm also hearing there's a growing amount of evidence that vitamin D defficiency appears to be very strongly correlated to severity of symptoms. Vitamin D deficiency will be worse in northern climates.
Huh! When the lockdowns started I decided to start taking a vitamin D supplement, not because I had even an inkling to this but because I figured I'm getting little sunlight exposure and I'm not a milk drinker, so I started taking 5,000IU per day. Looks like I may have done myself more good than I thought I was doing.
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by Stercutus » Sun May 31, 2020 8:08 am

Well now that the COIVD has turned bust and we appear to have all been lied to we have a new convenient catastrophe to focus on.
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by Confucius » Sun May 31, 2020 8:32 am

Stercutus wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 8:08 am
Well now that the COIVD has turned bust and we appear to have all been lied to we have a new convenient catastrophe to focus on.
Man, the news coverage just disappeared, but give it a week or two after you have thousands of people shoulder to shoulder screaming and wrestling in the streets, I think we'll see a big uptick...

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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Sun May 31, 2020 9:47 am

Confucius wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 8:32 am
Stercutus wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 8:08 am
Well now that the COIVD has turned bust and we appear to have all been lied to we have a new convenient catastrophe to focus on.
Man, the news coverage just disappeared, but give it a week or two after you have thousands of people shoulder to shoulder screaming and wrestling in the streets, I think we'll see a big uptick...
I am hedging that COVID-19 is not over. The initial wave (or hype/panic) might be, but the disease isn't.

Just one opinion.

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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by RoneKiln » Sun May 31, 2020 11:04 am

MPMalloy wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 9:47 am
Confucius wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 8:32 am
Stercutus wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 8:08 am
Well now that the COIVD has turned bust and we appear to have all been lied to we have a new convenient catastrophe to focus on.
Man, the news coverage just disappeared, but give it a week or two after you have thousands of people shoulder to shoulder screaming and wrestling in the streets, I think we'll see a big uptick...
I am hedging that COVID-19 is not over. The initial wave (or hype/panic) might be, but the disease isn't.

Just one opinion.
I agree. I think something can both be a very legitimate concern and be overhyped in the media at the same time. I think that overhype over COVID really slowed down our ability to shift tactics as new information became available. It probably increased loss of life both from COVID and from the ripple effects of economic devestation.
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by tony d tiger » Sun May 31, 2020 1:45 pm

MPMalloy wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 9:47 am
Confucius wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 8:32 am
Stercutus wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 8:08 am
Well now that the COIVD has turned bust and we appear to have all been lied to we have a new convenient catastrophe to focus on.
Man, the news coverage just disappeared, but give it a week or two after you have thousands of people shoulder to shoulder screaming and wrestling in the streets, I think we'll see a big uptick...
I am hedging that COVID-19 is not over. The initial wave (or hype/panic) might be, but the disease isn't.

Just one opinion.
Agreed - there will be a 2d wave, but at least now we'll have the tools and knowledge to protect those who are more susceptible without going into total lock down.
Tony D

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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by Stercutus » Sun May 31, 2020 8:52 pm

That still won't change the fact that the mortality rate is 800% lower than what was claimed. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy more people are going to live. But it was a huge waste of resources and completely FUBAR'd the US Economy.
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Sun May 31, 2020 9:10 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 8:52 pm
That still won't change the fact that the mortality rate is 800% lower than what was claimed. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy more people are going to live. But it was a huge waste of resources and completely FUBAR'd the US Economy.
Econ data takes time to come in.

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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by darmstrong » Sun May 31, 2020 9:48 pm

Unfortunately hindsight is 20/20. You'd hate to find out that the virus death rate increased 100% based upon obesity or some other condition that effects American's more than other countries.

I'm not saying that the US or most countries did the right thing. The information issue was/is the biggest challenge and determining how to move forward. We know today lots of things about the virus, we pretty much have enough PPE for medical staff, we know that ventilators aren't as important as we first thought, and transmission is predominately in close contact indoor spaces. Sucks to learn those lessons the hard way and we still may learn some along the way.
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by raptor2 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:51 pm

...and then there is this...

A virus is a living thing seeking to find a host. Killing the host is contrary to that goal so evolution steps in and you get this...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2370OQ
“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.

“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television.
A second doctor from northern Italy told the national ANSA news agency that he was also seeing the coronavirus weaken.

“The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,” said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa.

“It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different.”
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by raptor2 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:54 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:51 pm
...and then there is this...

A virus is a living thing seeking to find a host. Killing the host is contrary to that goal so evolution steps in and you get this...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2370OQ
“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.

“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television.
A second doctor from northern Italy told the national ANSA news agency that he was also seeing the coronavirus weaken.

“The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,” said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa.

“It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different.”

If this is the case how useful are the tests being performed today for the virus?
Duco Ergo Sum


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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by boskone » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:34 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:54 pm
raptor2 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:51 pm
...and then there is this...

A virus is a living thing seeking to find a host. Killing the host is contrary to that goal so evolution steps in and you get this...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2370OQ
“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.

“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television.
A second doctor from northern Italy told the national ANSA news agency that he was also seeing the coronavirus weaken.

“The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,” said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa.

“It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different.”

If this is the case how useful are the tests being performed today for the virus?
Still useful, for the lethal strain(s). There's at least 8 discrete strains, it's not quite time to call it a day because there's one minimally-shitty strain.

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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by raptor2 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:11 pm

If there is any doubt that COVID hit nursing homes in the US with a disproprotionate impact this article provides some initial data.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-nursin ... 20?tesla=y
The data gives the public its first broad look into individual nursing homes and sheds new light on the scale of the pandemic’s impact on the industry and those it serves. Nursing homes reported nearly 32,000 resident deaths linked to the coronavirus, the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said Thursday.
Assuming ~100,000 COVID deaths so far, at least 1/3 of the deaths were people in nursing homes. Bear in mind that the population of nursing homes in the US include many ages and not just the elderly. There are frequently hospice patients in these facilities.

I would note that NOLA & BR show up prominently in these stats with ~ 40% of the deaths (to date) from COVID in LA occurring in nursing home facilities.
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Re: COVID-19 Chat Thread

Post by boskone » Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:01 pm

I'd like to see a comparison that separates nursing home populations from the general population. I'm curious if nursing homes are disproportionately represented because they're full of old and infirm people, or because they're nursing homes and increase exposure.

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